PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Furniture]

Really frustrating to see you post such a sensationalized and alarmist article. It's one of the worst I've seen posted on here. If you follow the twitter thread on BloomLab that is literally linked inside the article, you'll see that it reaches very different conclusions: a) not clear that monoclonal antibodies won't work, b) not clear that vaccines won't work and c) not clear that transmissibility is high. The writers are intentionally fearmongering. Of course, the variant is a big concern, but that article is awful.

I agree.

[Furniture]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ashishkjh...24842203471916

I like the above explanation from Ashish K. Jha

[YmoBeThere]

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/south-africa-b11529-covid-variant-vaccination


South Africa accuses UK and others of ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to new variant

'However, Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and a practising GP based in Pretoria, said it was “premature” to make predictions of a health crisis.

“It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: there’s a whole hype out there. [We’re] not sure why."'

[cato]

Given the damage and destruction a virulent variant would pose if it evades the existing vaccines, this seems like exactly the right time for a knee-jerk or reflexive action. Travel restrictions obviously impose their own costs, but are a reasonable response to a potential threat.

If the concern turns out to be unfounded, it’s easy to drop a travel restriction. If the concern turns out to be valid, it will have been the right move.

Looks like the US is following suit and I’m guessing they got an earful after initially saying they wanted more information before implementing travel restrictions.

Who knows? Maybe they even got my input when chips they implanted in my bloodstream conveyed the conversation I had with my wife this morning about that line of thinking.

[LasVegas]

Given the damage and destruction a virulent variant would pose if it evades the existing vaccines, this seems like exactly the right time for a knee-jerk or reflexive action. Travel restrictions obviously impose their own costs, but are a reasonable response to a potential threat.

If the concern turns out to be unfounded, it’s easy to drop a travel restriction. If the concern turns out to be valid, it will have been the right move.

Looks like the US is following suit and I’m guessing they got an earful after initially saying they wanted more information before implementing travel restrictions.

Who knows? Maybe they even got my input when chips they implanted in my bloodstream conveyed the conversation I had with my wife this morning about that line of thinking.

Honest question, do travel restrictions even work? It’s not like we can shut down in/out traffic like a small island. If the new variant is out there spreading, isn’t it almost certain that it will make it’s way to the US? Seems to me that a travel ban just slows down the inevitable.

[MChambers]

Honest question, do travel restrictions even work? It’s not like we can shut down in/out traffic like a small island. If the new variant is out there spreading, isn’t it almost certain that it will make it’s way to the US? Seems to me that a travel ban just slows down the inevitable.

YLE, in the post I linked earlier today, says they don't work. Just a political action. Here's a link to the same article: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...variant-b11529

And here's a quote.

"It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. For example, we had a travel ban with China in March 2020, only to be infiltrated with a European strain. Travel bans are a political move; a tool to show the public that the government is responding. Travel bans can do a lot of damage, though, like perpetuate disease related stigma. This variant has already spread. A travel ban is not an evidence-based solution unless you stop all travel from every country."

I think she is right.

[Kdogg]

Now labeled Omicon. Mu, Nu and Omega, we hardly knew you.

[wavedukefan70s]

YLE, in the post I linked earlier today, says they don't work. Just a political action. Here's a link to the same article: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...variant-b11529

And here's a quote.

"It may seem like travel bans for individual countries are a necessary step, but I cannot stress enough that they do not work. For example, we had a travel ban with China in March 2020, only to be infiltrated with a European strain. Travel bans are a political move; a tool to show the public that the government is responding. Travel bans can do a lot of damage, though, like perpetuate disease related stigma. This variant has already spread. A travel ban is not an evidence-based solution unless you stop all travel from every country."

I think she is right.

Yes she is .we wont stop international shipping crews have to interact with personal they get some supplies
From delivery.but they go to local grocers and walmart.
Theres really no way to cut all interaction with the world.

[duke79]

Yes she is .we wont stop international shipping crews have to interact with personal they get some supplies
From delivery.but they go to local grocers and walmart.
Theres really no way to cut all interaction with the world.

Yea, unless you're a very small island nation like New Zealand, it's almost impossible to stop the spread of a highly contagious virus just by stopping airplane flights into the county. Simply too many other ways for the virus to spread (eventually).

Even New Zealand which had stopped the virus from coming into its country in any large numbers (through a strict shutdown of its borders and very tight internal controls) has been less successful with the Delta variant and they're now apparently giving up on trying to completely stop the spread and will allow foreign travelers into the country.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/c...-maor-rcna4119

But it does lead to the question of how we will try to handle another infectious wave (if it happens) - lockdowns of all indoor events and gatherings; restaurants, sporting events, work places, etc? I just don't see Americans submitting to that again.

[rsvman]

Now labeled Omicon. Mu, Nu and Omega, we hardly knew you.

Pretty sure you are missing an 'r.' And I really hope this one fizzles enough so there will be many people who don't know how to spell it properly.

[OldPhiKap]

Now labeled Omicon.

Pretty sure you are missing an 'r.'

Romicon?

[MChambers]

But it does lead to the question of how we will try to handle another infectious wave (if it happens) - lockdowns of all indoor events and gatherings; restaurants, sporting events, work places, etc? I just don't see Americans submitting to that again.

I think it depends on whether Omicrom or another variant evades immunity (whether by vaccine or prior infection) and how deadly it is. May also depend on how long it will take to roll out new vaccines. But, yes, I agree that at least a large segment of the population will rebel against restrictions. Remember, however, that much of the economic slowdown in 2020 was due more to individual choices than government mandates.

As Bob Dylan said: “ And here I sit so patiently, waiting to find out what price you have to pay to get out of going through all these things twice.”

[OldPhiKap]

I think it depends on whether Omicrom or another variant evades immunity (whether by vaccine or prior infection) and how deadly it is. May also depend on how long it will take to roll out new vaccines. But, yes, I agree that at least a large segment of the population will rebel against restrictions. Remember, however, that much of the economic slowdown in 2020 was due more to individual choices than government mandates.

As Bob Dylan said: “ And here I sit so patiently, waiting to find out what price you have to pay to get out of going through all these things twice.”

Oh, MChambers, must this really be the end?

(agreed as usual)

[cato]

Honest question, do travel restrictions even work? It’s not like we can shut down in/out traffic like a small island. If the new variant is out there spreading, isn’t it almost certain that it will make it’s way to the US? Seems to me that a travel ban just slows down the inevitable.

Nothing’s perfect with Covid. If a mitigation measure is helpful, we should look at it.

[YmoBeThere]

Nothing’s perfect with Covid. If a mitigation measure is helpful, we should look at it.

Omicron has been detected in Hong Kong, Israel, and Belgium as well as Botswana and South Africa. Blocking travel from six African countries isn't going to work. Very similar to the mistake made in early 2020 restricting travel from Asia only to have case counts skyrocket on the East Coast as the virus moved from Fashion Week events in Europe to here.

[LasVegas]

Nothing’s perfect with Covid. If a mitigation measure is helpful, we should look at it.

But how is it helpful if the virus will eventually get here?

[MChambers]

But how is it helpful if the virus will eventually get here?

If it buys us time and we use to develop mitigation measures, like revised vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, a travel ban could be helpful, but only in the short-term. If omicrom has already spread to many countries, it sounds like a travel ban may be futile.

[YmoBeThere]

Two cases discovered in GB.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...ted-in-britain

An African travel ban further highlights PPB issues with travel bans.

And another issue Omicron highlights is that according to some in the public health/medical sector we do an inadequate level of genomic sequencing.

[Skydog]

I guess our best hope is that Omicron is less lethal, less health damaging overall than Delta? Wouldn't that be an irony - a new more transmissible but less dangerous variant emerges and wipes out a deadlier variant? Hey virologists - is this at all plausible? Has it ever happened with other viruses? Looking for a silver lining here...

[MChambers]

I guess our best hope is that Omicron is less lethal, less health damaging overall than Delta? Wouldn't that be an irony - a new more transmissible but less dangerous variant emerges and wipes out a deadlier variant? Hey virologists - is this at all plausible? Has it ever happened with other viruses? Looking for a silver lining here...

I'm no virologist, but I have read articles that say it is very plausible that the coronavirus becomes less deadly. That happened with the 1918 influenza. Here's one such article:

https://undark.org/2020/11/11/corona...e-less-deadly/

A more transmissible, less deadly variant should be able to outcompete the other variants, in theory. After all, the virus isn't interesting in killing us, because then it can't replicate in our bodies and distribute itself through the population.