Maybe I'm in the minority, but I expect Jon to beat the odds and be successful. And I bet Coach K does too. Jon is definitely set up for success the way Coach K and he are managing this transition.
Half the battle, at least, to winning games and championships is having the right mix of talented players. Coach K broke through at Duke by assembling the legendary Dawkins class. I believe the biggest reason why Wojo, Collins, Capel, Dawkins (Stanford) have not been able to establish top programs is that they have not been able to win the recruiting battles to consistently bring in top 20, eventually top 10, classes. Yes, winning fuels recruiting, but you have to have good recruits/players to win at a consistently high level.
According to the recent Fayetteville Observer article, Duke's targets next year include 5-stars Whitehead, Duren, Mitchell and 4-stars Lively, Gortman and Smith Jr. A number already have visits planned this summer. I haven't tried to find out how many of these guys J is the lead recruiter on, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's all of them. We're just learning about Coach J, but this has been in the works for months at a minimum.
So I think if J can close the deal over the next 9 months on a top-10 recruiting class, with some help from Coach K, then he will have a springboard to a solid first season that none of the coaches above had - and that Coach K himself didn't have when he landed at Duke. If he can pull it off, then I think Jon plus CWell plus Nolan are a dream team to keep the recruiting train rolling.