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  1. #1781
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    Whatever happened to Jeffrey? He’s been MIA from this thread a while

  2. #1782
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    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Whatever happened to Jeffrey? He’s been MIA from this thread a while
    On tour?

  3. #1783
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    On tour?
    If he got banned, he might buy the joint, you know? Attack it like woodpeckers on budwom’s suet, ammirite?

  4. #1784
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Whatever happened to Jeffrey? He’s been MIA from this thread a while
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    On tour?
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    If he got banned, he might buy the joint, you know? Attack it like woodpeckers on budwom’s suet, ammirite?
    Well, now you made us all look.

  5. #1785
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    My public company was just bought by a private one for an agreed upon share price. My company is trading about a $1.50 discount to the agreed upon sale price. Perhaps I will become a merger arbitrager.

  6. #1786
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My public company was just bought by a private one for an agreed upon share price. My company is trading about a $1.50 discount to the agreed upon sale price. Perhaps I will become a merger arbitrager.
    Good luck with it, my experiences were not great,, Though you don't mention how far from the final offer price that $1.50 is. I tried that game in the 90s when offers were mostly stock+cash. SMH. With an all-cash offer your risk is certainly less.

  7. #1787
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My public company was just bought by a private one for an agreed upon share price. My company is trading about a $1.50 discount to the agreed upon sale price. Perhaps I will become a merger arbitrager.
    Congrats man!

  8. #1788
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
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    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My public company was just bought by a private one for an agreed upon share price. My company is trading about a $1.50 discount to the agreed upon sale price. Perhaps I will become a merger arbitrager.
    I spent a summer in college (1995) working in the back office of a family office that primarily invested in M&A risk arb. I never figured out exactly how they did it - I wish I had spoken up and asked a lot more questions as I got the job through a family friend who was their head trader. He made silly amounts of money, so clearly it worked. Unrelated, I remember very clearly near the end of the summer that one of the traders, unrelated to their primary risk arb focus, was very excited that he got an allocation of the Netscape IPO.

  9. #1789
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Good luck with it, my experiences were not great,, Though you don't mention how far from the final offer price that $1.50 is. I tried that game in the 90s when offers were mostly stock+cash. SMH. With an all-cash offer your risk is certainly less.
    From what I understand, the deal is cash and each shareholder at the time of the final sale will receive x dollars for their share. It’s trading at a 2ish % discount to that buy price. It will probably take 6 months to get through regulatory approvals and shareholder votes but this seems more a go than other deals. With the way the market is going, I’m not sure a 2ish% return is worth the hold but it’s an interesting scenario.

  10. #1790
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    From what I understand, the deal is cash and each shareholder at the time of the final sale will receive x dollars for their share. It’s trading at a 2ish % discount to that buy price. It will probably take 6 months to get through regulatory approvals and shareholder votes but this seems more a go than other deals. With the way the market is going, I’m not sure a 2ish% return is worth the hold but it’s an interesting scenario.
    Right, so you are weighing the risk of the deal not closing in that 6 months. The question in this case is what is your relative/comparable investment? One might argue a money market account getting 0.5%. So, if you had $1 million to put into it, you would be looking at earning a "risky" 10k versus the less risky* 2.5k over those 6 months. Another alternative investment might be commercial paper. Those rates are under 0.1%. So you can quickly see that this scenario becomes a thing for large pools of money trying to eke out whatever yield they can.

    The stock scenarios can be much more complicated and then you have market risk along with the individual stocks/companies, etc. There you might try to go short the acquirer and long the acquiree and take advantage of that differential. As I mentioned I tried to dabble in this stuff in the 90s with bank mergers. I quickly learned I was a hobbyist and this sort of thing was outside my wheelhouse. So, take this all with a grain of salt as I was really only an interested observer, I lacked the scale and access that professionals have to make some of these things work.


    *less risky because MMAs are only insured to $250k

  11. #1791
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Right, so you are weighing the risk of the deal not closing in that 6 months. The question in this case is what is your relative/comparable investment? One might argue a money market account getting 0.5%. So, if you had $1 million to put into it, you would be looking at earning a "risky" 10k versus the less risky* 2.5k over those 6 months. Another alternative investment might be commercial paper. Those rates are under 0.1%. So you can quickly see that this scenario becomes a thing for large pools of money trying to eke out whatever yield they can.

    The stock scenarios can be much more complicated and then you have market risk along with the individual stocks/companies, etc. There you might try to go short the acquirer and long the acquiree and take advantage of that differential. As I mentioned I tried to dabble in this stuff in the 90s with bank mergers. I quickly learned I was a hobbyist and this sort of thing was outside my wheelhouse. So, take this all with a grain of salt as I was really only an interested observer, I lacked the scale and access that professionals have to make some of these things work.


    *less risky because MMAs are only insured to $250k
    Well, shareholder lawsuits were filed in the grounds the offer lowballed almost immediately so maybe more upside if another buyer presents.

    I don’t plan to play but interesting to watch.

  12. #1792
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    Here’s a good take on Ethereum and why I’ve been buying all the Ethereum I can the past few weeks ahead of this summer’s upgrades to the network, which I’m gambling will give Eth a big bump forward whenever it happens.

    And after some research, I decided to move my crypto assets over to BlockFi and away from the Gemini and Coinbase exchanges. I guess I’m getting a little more confident in the US regulated sites like BlockFi and not as worried about a hack of a major site and losing it all, as I was when I began buying crypto.

    The primary reason for the move is simple, BlockFi is now paying me between 5-6 % interest compounded on Bitcoin and Ethereum as I hodl, and I have no plans to sell anytime soon.
    Why not collect a little interest while I hold?...and that interest is paid in Eth or BTC, all the better.
    I’m not doing any trading at all, just buying and holding.
    You must be happy if you followed through and loaded up during the most recent dip?

  13. #1793
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    Mar 2007
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    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    You must be happy if you followed through and loaded up during the most recent dip?
    So far...so good. About 35% gains on five figures+ invested. Who wouldn’t be happy with that?

    I’m expecting a substantial pullback at some point soon to test my confidence in all this. My friends who have been investing in crypto for a while, and have done really well, say it goes with the territory. I just have to stay steady through all the volatility and stick to my 3-5 year plan. I’ve only been in about 3 months.

    I have been steadily buying Ethereum, and also some more Chainlink. I believe in what they are building and still think there is lots of room to grow. I wish I could to buy more Bitcoin, but I’m pretty disciplined with what I can afford to lose, so I’m putting what I can where I think/hope is the best chance for real growth and that’s ETH and Link.

    I wouldn’t touch anything like Dogecoin or these other speculative coins that can’t show me they provide a better way or a better solution to a problem. Having a cool meme is not a good enough reason for me to invest, but seems to be enough for a lot of people. Crazy stuff going on out there in the cryptoverse...

  14. #1794
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    So far...so good. About 35% gains on five figures+ invested. Who wouldn’t be happy with that?

    I’m expecting a substantial pullback at some point soon to test my confidence in all this. My friends who have been investing in crypto for a while, and have done really well, say it goes with the territory. I just have to stay steady through all the volatility and stick to my 3-5 year plan. I’ve only been in about 3 months.

    I have been steadily buying Ethereum, and also some more Chainlink. I believe in what they are building and still think there is lots of room to grow. I wish I could to buy more Bitcoin, but I’m pretty disciplined with what I can afford to lose, so I’m putting what I can where I think/hope is the best chance for real growth and that’s ETH and Link.

    I wouldn’t touch anything like Dogecoin or these other speculative coins that can’t show me they provide a better way or a better solution to a problem. Having a cool meme is not a good enough reason for me to invest, but seems to be enough for a lot of people. Crazy stuff going on out there in the cryptoverse...
    As a rookie investor with very little skin in the game. The Dogecoin... (Fad? Phenomenon? Situation?) is rather infuriating to me, as it seems to buck all the establishment rules. I made a few dollars by buying on dips and selling on upticks, but it seems to me to be testament to idiots in large numbers.

    Part of me wants them to fail so I can say "see? You have to follow the rules like everyone else." Part of me wants to see it shoot the moon and become a fairy tale.

  15. #1795
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    As a rookie investor with very little skin in the game. The Dogecoin... (Fad? Phenomenon? Situation?) is rather infuriating to me, as it seems to buck all the establishment rules. I made a few dollars by buying on dips and selling on upticks, but it seems to me to be testament to idiots in large numbers.

    Part of me wants them to fail so I can say "see? You have to follow the rules like everyone else." Part of me wants to see it shoot the moon and become a fairy tale.
    We ascribe value (formally or temporarily) to a lot of things with no actual utility. Paper currency is useless. Gold doesn’t have much utility. Baseball cards are scarce collectibles. Beanie babies had their day in the sun.

    Dogecoins are like beanie babies to me. The point is to not be holding them long after the run is over and you’re stuck with a closet full of stuffed animals no one cares about anymore. They’re useless but it’s still a market because people believe in the crypto gold rush. I put the 50 shares of Lehman Stock I bought near the end convinced of intervention in that convo. 😂
    Last edited by bundabergdevil; 05-08-2021 at 08:29 AM.

  16. #1796
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    We ascribe value (formally or temporarily) to a lot of things with no actual utility. Paper currency is useless. Gold doesn’t have much utility. Baseball cards are scarce collectibles. Beanie babies had their day in the sun.

    Dogecoins are like beanie babies to me. The point is to not be holding them long after the run is over and you’re stuck with a closet full of stuffed animals no one cares about anymore. They’re useless but it’s still a market because people believe in the crypto gold rush. I put the 50 shares of Lehman Stock I bought near the end convinced of intervention. 🤣
    are you somehow implying that the 100,000 tulip bulbs in my garage may not constitute vast riches????

  17. #1797
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    are you somehow implying that the 100,000 tulip bulbs in my garage may not constitute vast riches????
    Hah!

    Seriously, if they’ve retained their color, well done, you might get resale!

  18. #1798
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    Jan 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, is a discussion on ethical investing really verboten? I'm genuinely curious about people's thoughts. Feel free to PM if you feel it is out of bounds.
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    There are other ways to engage companies on environmental and social issues. They are publicly owned, after all, and the proxy landscape has shifted considerably over the last 10-15 years. I'd argue the tipping point for major shareholders voting against their corporate board recommendations on certain environmental and social issues is occurring right now. There are very prominent examples of energy, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals, etc losing proxy vote on thing like climate change, contribution to the opioid crisis, etc. I have not checked but would not be surprised if this issue came up for a vote this year or next at Amazon.

    Ceres has a good database to search ESG-specific shareholder resolutions and the voting results ---
    https://www.ceres.org/resources/tool...tions-database

    I cannot speak to labor and union issues specifically but major institutional investors are beginning to bring ESG analysts into conversations with corporate IR and spending time talking about certain issues in ways that would have been inconceivable 10 years ago. These institutional investors tend to be managing long-term money. Plenty of funds could still give two rips...!

    Full disclosure: I have worked both on the investor side and corporate side engaging on these types of shareholder resolutions.
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Here is a very relevant situation that has been in the news the past few days. Citi and BofA have policies about the gun policies of the companies they do business with. The state of Texas is trying to pass a law forbidding all government entities from doing business with any bank having any sort of policy related to guns (the article explains it better than I can), so, as things stand now, Citi and BofA couldn't do any governmental banking in Texas, where they both do a ton of business. This could include municipal bond underwriting, but also could potentially include where local governments keep their bank accounts.

    https://www.yahoo.com/now/bank-ameri...215256193.html

    Full disclosure - I work at a very large bank in a group that does business with governments in Texas and until 2018 worked at another very large bank in a group that does business with governments in Texas, with one of the banks on each side of the fence (i.e. one bank is one of the two listed, the other is a bank without a policy so benefits from excluding these banks).

    Check out this recent record shareholder vote --- DuPont got crushed with 80% of shareholders voting in favor of plastic pollution and D&I resolutions.


    As recently as 8-9 years ago, corporate IR essentially considered these types of resolutions nuisances because they seldom commanded more than 10-15% of the vote if that. Today, companies are starting to not only lose but get crushed. Regardless of how I feel about the actual resolution content, I am somewhat gratified because I made the case the day was coming to two previous employers and that we should prepare accordingly. In fairness, the company's did but the pace of social change and investor expectation has shifted dramatically the past few years on certain issues.

  19. #1799
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    Dec 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Check out this recent record shareholder vote --- DuPont got crushed with 80% of shareholders voting in favor of plastic pollution and D&I resolutions.


    As recently as 8-9 years ago, corporate IR essentially considered these types of resolutions nuisances because they seldom commanded more than 10-15% of the vote if that. Today, companies are starting to not only lose but get crushed. Regardless of how I feel about the actual resolution content, I am somewhat gratified because I made the case the day was coming to two previous employers and that we should prepare accordingly. In fairness, the company's did but the pace of social change and investor expectation has shifted dramatically the past few years on certain issues.
    That’s really interesting. At 80% for a big company like DuPont, that’s not just a few activists supporting it but also some big institutional investors who are normally only concerned with squeezing every penny of return out of their holdings.

    And this obviously isn’t so they can get DuPont into an ESG fund as I don’t think that will ever happen.

  20. #1800
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    That’s really interesting. At 80% for a big company like DuPont, that’s not just a few activists supporting it but also some big institutional investors who are normally only concerned with squeezing every penny of return out of their holdings.

    And this obviously isn’t so they can get DuPont into an ESG fund as I don’t think that will ever happen.
    Originally, the ESG activism was confined to values-based investments whether that was a catholic pension fund screening out guns, porn and liquor or another ethical/value system.

    The big boys are starting to develop their own investment vehicles because the market for such products is growing and there is defensible research that suggests companies with strong ESG management practices outperform their peers without them. So, it’s just another investment thesis.

    But, the bigger conversation is about expanding the scope of what constitutes material information for investors. The long-term, passively managed money increasingly believes ESG info is material and that companies out of step with certain social and environmental changes are at risk.

    Four or five years ago I started staffing calls with IR because Blackrock, State Street, CalPers and others were bringing ESG analysts to the reviews and asking questions. Up to that point, I had only interacted with the SRIs. I can tell you that IR was shocked the first time State Street told them that they would be voting against management’s recommendation on one of these proposals.

    I’m still surprised by the DuPont vote. That is overwhelming and history making.

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