The issue is not whether an NBA team would wish to hire Brad Stevens if he were fired by the Celtics — of course they would. The issue is whether one can definitively say that being a head coach in the NBA is preferable to being the head coach at Duke, Kansas, UNC, or Kentucky.
Coach K could have had the premier job in the NBA — the Los Angeles Lakers — had he wanted it. John Calipari could get one of the top NBA jobs were he so inclined. Roy Williams could have done the same, though he is too old now. Bill Self could have a top NBA job, too.
Yet none of these guys have gone to the NBA (yes, Calipari was the head coach at New Jersey many years ago, but he obviously likes coaching the college game better). Why is that? If the top NBA jobs are so coveted and are clearly superior to the top college jobs why are these guys staying at Duke and Kansas and North Carolina and Kentucky?
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Coaching the Lakers has to be one of the least desirable coaching jobs in sports (except for currently with LeBron and AD on the team, but that is temporary). Constant, unrelenting scrutiny. 0 job security. Meddling celebrity fans. Constant front office drama.
The coaches you're talking about (except maybe Cal) have basically unlimited job security, it makes perfect sense for guys who are highly paid, effectively have lifetime contracts, and are effectively a living Mt Rushmore for the the sport to be happy to stay where they are. I'm not sure the next Duke coach will be making as much (initially) as K is now, and they certainly wouldn't get the job security he enjoys (and has earned, obviously).
While all of those things about the Lakers job might be true, it is still the premier franchise in the NBA and I think just about any coach in the NBA would jump at the chance to have that job.
As to your comments about the current head coaches at Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and UNC being in a Mt. Rushmore type situation....that is exactly what I was trying to say. In other words, why shouldn’t someone like Brad Stevens covet the opportunity to set himself up similarly to what Coach K has? I could see him viewing the Duke job as superior to the NBA jobs. Why not?
Maybe he thinks he can achieve the same thing in the NBA (a la Greg Popovich). There is also a lot of uncertainty around the college sports landscape right now. I would probably want to see how things shake out over the next 2-5 years if I wasn't already established at a school and could reasonably expect to coach in the NBA pretty much as long as I wanted (not necessarily with the same team, admittedly).
I came across an interview with Stevens a while back where he talked about how much better the NBA schedule was for him. When the schedule comes out, he knows exactly when he will be home and can reserve time to be with the family. And summers are vastly better for NBA coaches who have little kids and want to be part of their lives in a meaningful, day-to-day basis.
And those are only personal reasons. From a professional standpoint working with the best players on the planet, with the best staff, facilities and equipment and everyone entirely focused on the same thing (not some side hustle about “education”), it is not surprising that successful NBA coaches generally remain in the NBA.
It's not about what you or I would want. I don't much like the NBA when Zion Williamson isn't on the floor, and I like universities. Of course I'd rather be at Duke. What you or I would want is irrelevant. We're not successful NBA coaches.
Okay, how about this. Give me a list of successful--successful--NBA coaches who have gone back to college. Relative to that list, why does Brad Stevens fit into it?
Because they are better paid than some NBA coaches, and have near unlimited job security, as was mentioned. Plus, how long has it been since K was pounding the recruiting trail day in and day out anyway? My impression (possibly mistaken) for a while has been that most of that is delegated to assistants, with K coming in to make the occasional big pitch. A new head coach, even one with NBA coaching cred, probably won't have that luxury initially. Maybe they are also self-aware enough to know that their coaching styles wouldn't translate to the pros (I'm not saying that is necessarily true for K or any of the others listed, but it certainly could be).
For Stevens specifically, I think the answer is even simpler: if Stevens preferred coaching in college, he would be coaching in college. How many college coaches have left for NBA head coaching gigs, been successful in the NBA, and then voluntarily left to return to the college game? Let's limit ourselves to the last 30 years (20 would probably be more appropriate, but I'm feeling generous). What coaches were doing in 1954 probably doesn't have much bearing.
Edit: I see I was ninja'd by throaty.
It's a good question, but in general I believe the perception is that the NBA is the more coveted job. There isn't actually a lot of head coaching movement between leagues, but of the few cases of coaches moving from the NCAA to the NBA (Stevens, Donovan, etc), they are generally poached away from their college job, vs the small handful of NBA coaches moved to the NCAA (Cal, Leonard Hamilton, and Tim Floyd are all I can think of right now) were fired by NBA teams. Said another way, I can't think of a a single example of anyone leaving a stable NBA head coaching job for a college job, but definitely could be missing one. All this to say, I can't see Stevens to Duke, regardless of how much Coach K likes it here.
Prestige, okay. Let's talk about prestige.
Stevens isn't in Sacramento or Oklahoma City. He's coaching one of the two cornerstone franchises of the top basketball league in the world. The Celtics are not some NBA team. They are the Celtics. In NBA history, past and present, there are the Celtics and Lakers, and then there's everyone else. Even the Spurs and Bulls, amazing franchises, don't have the long term glitz of the Celtics and Lakers. There's a tier of two franchises, and then you can argue about the rest.
Why is Duke's roughly #4ish prestige in the college game some sort of a draw for a guy who likes his schedule in the top league worldwide at one of the top two franchises in the entire history of the sport?
I’ll tell you why: If he were Duke’s coach he would A) likely make more money; B) have more power and input into running his program (Ainge, to name just one, has significantly more power and input than Stevens does with the Celtics); C) have a more secure job — he would win at Duke, no question, by just keeping the recruiting machine rolling and then coaching ‘em up, maybe even better than Coach K is currently doing — as there are people already talking about him potentially being on shaky ground soon with the Celtics; and D) would travel far less — 40 or so games at Duke versus closer to a 100 for a successful NBA coach.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Last edited by Steven43; 03-10-2021 at 03:34 PM.
On the travel point, as Cato accurately stated above, the NBA schedule comes out and his travel schedule for the year is basically locked in. There are a lot fewer games in college but a college coach has to do the summer recruiting circuit, in-home visits, etc. That adds up very quickly. And as others have noted, guys like K, Roy, Cal can delegate a lot of that. A new coach, even someone of Stevens' stature, has to be out there more to be visible. Show up and stand in the crowd at the recruit's game in the middle of nowhere for ten minutes to show him you love him. Tell mom how great her pie tastes even though it really makes you want to puke. Act like you care about the dining habit of the recruit's little brother's goldfish.
Sure, there are a lot of major, major headaches with NBA players because once they have money, a lot changes. But college is no walk in the park.
Regarding (C), I am not nearly as confident in that as you are. I mean, he would probably do well, but he's never coached or recruited at the major conference level. It is not a foregone conclusion that he even have the level of success he had at Butler if he coached at Duke, let alone that he would match or exceed K's success. Is this Brad Steven's burner account (or maybe a close relative)?
As for (D), I'm not sure travel doesn't end up a wash if you factor in travel for recruiting (and at least with game travel you know your schedule way, way in advance and can plan around it as someone noted upthread, which is not the case for college recruiting).
0) You never answered, what successful NBA coach has actually done this, much less recently.
A) He just signed a contract extension with the Celtics in August 2020. They didn't disclose terms. The old one paid $3.66M/year, so he's not making less than that, probably more. If we assume that the extension got him past $4M, his salary already outranks all but about seven college coaches, of whom several are in the HOF.
And Coach K's salary isn't particularly predictive of what the next guy will make. He's the GOAT, in his 41st season at the school, and his total compensation has been complicated by the Nike money etc. It's not at all clear that going from the Celtics after a decade of work with them to Duke gets you a pay raise. The next Duke coach's salary is hard to predict right now. Some of it will have to do with the market, in college, some with the changing economics of the NCAA, and some with the hire himself. Generously, the salary consideration is a wash.
B) This one cuts both ways. He doesn't have to be a CEO. He gets some input on player personnel decisions without having to stick out his own neck about them. And what evidence do we have that Celtics management is incenting him to go running back down--down--to college? He doesn't have to deal with myriad recruiting/compliance/booster issues.
C) Maybe. But as Evans pointed out, the Celtics "problems" are of a not-making the-finals-recently sort, and that's it. Most of the time they weren't making the finals recently, peak to slightly-past-peak LeBron James was in their way, and now he isn't. They're good. And if job security were his top concern, he'd have stayed at Butler, where he was, how did you put it, a god, and not risked it with the Celtics. The worst case scenario with the Celtics is that he may one day be coaching a less prestigious NBA franchise.
D) Stevens himself has said he prefers the NBA schedule. So you liking the college schedule doesn't mean he does.