Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
538 has launched their senate model... pardon me while I geek out for a moment!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/
The model gives the Dems a 58% chance of winning the senate.
Here is how they rate the the close races for GOP seats:
AZ - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
CO - 68% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
NC - 62% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
ME - 53% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
IO - 41% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
MT - 32% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KS - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
SC - 15% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
AK - 13% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
TX - 11% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
KY - 4% chance of flip from GOP to Dem
And the Dem seats in some trouble:
AL - 72% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MI - 19% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
MN - 8% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
NM - 5% chance of flip from Dem to GOP
So, 538 will also allow you to look at a "polls only" version of the senate model (go to the bottom of the page where it says "pick a model"). It takes out a number of environmental factors and just looks at what the polls are saying. It bears a pretty stark difference from what we see in the "deluxe" version that I quoted above:
First of all, polls only gives the Dems a 68% chance of winning the senate. Here is how the races I highlighted change if you only consider the polls:
GOP seats
AZ - 86% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+8)
CO - 78% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+10)
NC - 71% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
ME - 75% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+22)
IO - 48% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
MT - 39% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+7)
GA - 31% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+5)
KS - 33% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+12)
GA (sp) - 17% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (no change)
SC - 26% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+11)
AK - 22% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+9)
TX - 14% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
KY - 7% chance of flip from GOP to Dem (+3)
Dem seats
AL - 90% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+18)
MI - 18% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (-1)
MN - 15% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+7)
NM - 13% chance of flip from Dem to GOP (+8)
The Maine shift is really stark. 538 thinks Susan Collins has a major incumbency advantage that overshadows a lot of her weakness in the polls.
-Jason "Doug Jones, we hardly knew ya. Dude does not stand a change against War Eagle!" Evans