2020 Presidential Election

[bundabergdevil]

On PA’s election issues:

“This is like learning to ride your bicycle in the middle of a hurricane with a crazy person chasing you,” he added. “That’s basically what Pennsylvania is trying to do right now.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...election-chaos

More PA news. Former PA Gov and Bush appointee Tom Ridge say he'll vote Biden, will be first time for a Dem for President. Minor news inside of PA but when the state was decided by 40K votes, I suppose 'needle moving' matters at the margins.

https://www.pennlive.com/politics/20...joe-biden.html

[OldPhiKap]

Still? I watched plenty of conservative commentators and sites shift from mocking Trump during his primary campaign to supporting him during the general to being part of his PR team today; Drudge has done the opposite. Who's his audience these days? It ain't what it used to be when he was flinging - let's go with - mud at the Clintons.

I am sure that those who do not want to hear criticism of Trump have shifted away from Drudge. Doesn’t mean that conservatives have.

There are conservatives that want their party back. Drudge is certainly one, the Lincoln Project folks are another example. I think these kinds of sources still speak for a fair number of folks who would vote for a typical Republican candidate but will not vote for Trump.

[MarkD83]

The real attack should be “who does Trump owe money to?” Biden’s people could construct a plausible narrative that he is beholden to someone else and everything he has done is at their behest. They turn Trump’s own playbook against him and start seeding doubt.

And the plausible narrative could include a country east of Ukraine

[Wander]

And the plausible narrative could include a country east of Ukraine

I, for one, will not stand against this unprovoked insinuation of Kazakhstan.

[YmoBeThere]

And the plausible narrative could include a country east of Ukraine

Did someone mention the Ukarine?

[Tripping William]

I, for one, will not stand against this unprovoked insinuation of Kazakhstan.

Maybe he was referring to Georgia. To provoke OPK.

[Furniture]

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/09...tax-fraud.html

Donald Trump’s tax returns show that he paid his daughter Ivanka as a consultant, even though she is a member of the company which is against IRS rules.

[YmoBeThere]

Former Trump campaign manager taken to hospital after reported suicide attempt, police say

https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/Former-Trump-campaign-manager-taken-to-hospital-15601810.php
WASHINGTON - Former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale was brought to the hospital by authorities on Sunday after a suicide attempt, the Fort Lauderdale Police Department said in a statement.

[lotusland]

https://www.politicususa.com/2020/09...tax-fraud.html

Donald Trump’s tax returns show that he paid his daughter Ivanka as a consultant, even though she is a member of the company which is against IRS rules.

Also that aside from and in-spite of making a lot of money pretending to be a great businessman on The Apprentice, he’s been losing money hand over fist for years and the audit he’s been hiding behind says he owes the feds $100 million. If Biden can’t make hay with this, he’s incompetent. If I were him I would work the failure of his businesses into every answer during the debate. “His business failures show how clearly incompetent he is to manage the nation’s ________ (X 50)”

https://apple.news/ADsCoroznTS2ug1wAXDeLzg

The Times story makes clear the supposedly wealthy president often paid no income taxes, while his businesses regularly lost vast sums of money, and he himself was on the hook for increasing sums in loans. All that is politically damaging enough to Trump’s image, and likely a sufficient reason to work hard to keep the tax returns secret.
But there’s likely another reason behind Trump’s reticence — because reporters would scour his returns for legally dubious claims, and put the pieces together as to how he was trying to snooker the IRS.
That’s just what ended up happening here. Just to name one example, Buettner, Craig, and McIntire sussed out that mysterious write-offs for consulting fees on certain Trump projects matched the amounts of payments to Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump. And there’s far more in the Times’ excellent piece.
One major theme of the Times piece is that the IRS audit of Trump is extremely serious, and that he could end up owing the US government more than $100 million. So reporters’ scrutiny of his tax returns might not just be politically problematic for Trump — they could also be financially and legally problematic.

Their story reveals the following: Trump did indeed pay zero in income taxes from 2011-2014, and the paltry amount of $750 in 2016 and 2017. He pulled this off by claiming that his businesses lost massive amounts of money. He has $421 million in debt coming due in the next few years, and he could owe $100 million more to the US government if he loses his audit battle with the IRS.

[Furniture]

I think this will move the needle...Realistically it will not be much but I have a feeling it will will...

Biden campaign already on it...


https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamJoe/s...99932067729410

[Wander]

I think this will move the needle...Realistically it will not be much but I have a feeling it will will...

Biden campaign already on it...


https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamJoe/s...99932067729410

You know, I think the $750 number is somehow more "catchy" than the $0 number. Somehow that makes it more insulting, easier to wrap your head around, and a more direct comparison to other careers like in the ad above. And it lends itself to effective zingers a bit more – "Trump paid a Playstation and a half worth of taxes", "Trump paid 93 times more money to get his hair done than he did on taxes", etc.

I'm not sure anything really matters anymore other than how covid and voter suppression efforts affect voting, but to the extent that anything does, I do think that this report matters a little more than most of the "Trump said something awful again" stories.

[JasonEvans]

You know, I think the $750 number is somehow more "catchy" than the $0 number. Somehow that makes it more insulting, easier to wrap your head around, and a more direct comparison to other careers like in the ad above. And it lends itself to effective zingers a bit more – "Trump paid a Playstation and a half worth of taxes", "Trump paid 93 times more money to get his hair done than he did on taxes", etc.

I'm not sure anything really matters anymore other than how covid and voter suppression efforts affect voting, but to the extent that anything does, I do think that this report matters a little more than most of the "Trump said something awful again" stories.

Here is Biden's 2018 tax return: https://go.joebiden.com/page/-/vpdoc...%20Federal.pdf

He paid more than $1.5 mil in taxes on $4.5 mil of income (almost all of which comes from some passthrough real estate holdings), a very reasonably 33%. I wonder if we hear Biden say that he paid 2000-times more than Trump in taxes. Probably not because I expect Biden to hammer at the "I'm from working class Scranton and he's from Park Avenue" line that he used a good bit at the CNN town hall a week ago. Still, if he wants to, Joe has the "I paid my fair share, Donald didn't" arrow in his quiver.

[Lord Ash]

Interesting.

Some people will see it as being smart, sure that Trump is worth billions and this is all just legal accounting tricks that anyone would do.

Others will see it as Trump cheating out of paying his fair share for things like health care for veterans, food for poor Americans in need, and continued vital work in the sciences, among many other things, leaving it up to everyone else to shoulder his portion of the responsibility.

Not sure how many people will be swayed by this, but it could lead to interesting stuff at the debate.



In other news, Maria B. over at Fox saying there will be no Durham report before the election, and maybe not at all.

Some people saying yes, bc if nobody did anything illegal there won’t be charges for anything.

Other people are saying this is a massive travesty of justice, perpetrated by the DoJ and possibly FBI to support Biden.

But again, does it change any voters’ minds?

[Bostondevil]

Personally, I've wondered why Trump even wants a second term. I think that $400 million coming due in 2 years has a lot to do with it. Can one use "being President" as a way to default on loans and/or avoid bankruptcy?

[Kdogg]

Personally, I've wondered why Trump even wants a second term. I think that $400 million coming due in 2 years has a lot to do with it. Can one use "being President" as a way to default on loans and/or avoid bankruptcy?

No, but creditors may be reluctant to press a sitting president. At minimum it would by him time.

[OldPhiKap]

Personally, I've wondered why Trump even wants a second term. I think that $400 million coming due in 2 years has a lot to do with it. Can one use "being President" as a way to default on loans and/or avoid bankruptcy?

I think he generates a lot of income from the White House that he otherwise could not. He’s facing serious legal/criminal jeopardy when he leaves office. And, with Bill Barr, he has an entire free legal team (or at least free to him because he doesn’t pay taxes — you and I are paying for his defense and delays through Barr).

And, oddly, there is no mention of the tax issue anymore on the FoxNews webpage (at least that I saw upon scanning).

[bundabergdevil]

We shall see. He's said before it's smart if he didn't, suspect most of his supporters will ride that train of thought no matter the ultimate destination. Not a surprise that his finances suggest he's not (remotely) as successful as he claimed --- and very possibly running from debtors. Not a good look. Will it even get picked up by certain outlets? Probably yes but only in the context that it, like everything negative about Trump, is a fever dream of the left.

As of this AM, I see no significant coverage of this story on FoxNews.com.

Best I can tell, some of the conservative outlets are focusing on the story confirming Trump was telling the truth about being under audit while attacking the leaker’s claims to have legal access to the records.

[OldPhiKap]

Scanning FaceBook comments about this revelation from Trump supporters I know, the answer to any “will this move the needle?” question is an emphatic “no.”

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

We shall see. He's said before it's smart if he didn't, suspect most of his supporters will ride that train of thought no matter the ultimate destination. Not a surprise that his finances suggest he's not (remotely) as successful as he claimed --- and very possibly running from debtors. Not a good look. Will it even get picked up by certain outlets? Probably yes but only in the context that it, like everything negative about Trump, is a fever dream of the left.

Or perhaps he’s midstream in paying them all off right now... just needs four years to finish doing so.

[ClemmonsDevil]

To keep this horse racey, I don't know that moving the needle is the right way to approach anything with this election. There seems to be 38-40ish% of the population who will vote for him no matter what. And the phrase "no matter what" has been sorely tested, but that base has proven to be rock solid. There is another 3-5% which is somewhat more elastic. If Trump gets his voting block to around 45% he probably wins. At 43% he is very unlikely to win. Closer to 40% he can't win. All of these things that he has to play defense against are stopping him from gaining supporters. So another day or 3 of playing defense in a race that is getting late. The Durham report is not coming out. The preliminary Burisma report failed to land. It isn't impossible, but I struggle to see how Trump eats into the Biden lead unless he just decimates Biden in the debates. And historically debates don't move the needle (that phrase again...) the way the media pitches that it does.