Page 470 of 1110 FirstFirst ... 370420460468469470471472480520570970 ... LastLast
Results 9,381 to 9,400 of 22195
  1. #9381
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Location
    The People's Republic of Travis County
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    What do you think will happen if we let thing play out?
    I'd rather know what "freshmanjs" and others propounding "let it play out" viewpoints can do to guarantee their rosier outcomes. That's where the real burden of espousing that "que sera, sera" attitude lies, I believe. And it should include not just avoidance of deaths, but also avoidance of things like brain damage, which studies are finding in a shockingly high percentage of COVID patients.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...228-5/fulltext
    Last edited by AustinDevil; 08-08-2020 at 02:52 AM. Reason: Typo

  2. #9382
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    What do you think will happen if we let thing play out?
    Not going to put words in freshmanjs's mouth but simply go back and read post #9372 where he agrees with Cdu as to likely outcomes of that approach.

    Really do not get the sniping tone of some posts in response to freshmanjs. The rest of that back and forth seemed about as worthy an argument as how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.

  3. #9383
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Athletes, Covid-19. and Heart Damage

    Scary stuff from the Washington Post about how athletes in their prime can suffer heart damage from Covid-19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...complications/

  4. #9384
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Scary stuff from the Washington Post about how athletes in their prime can suffer heart damage from Covid-19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...complications/
    This is getting borderline ridiculous. I know there's lots of money at stake, but this article (and many more like it) really underline how much unknown there is about the effects of this disease. Asking these players to come back and entertain us without knowledge of what may happen down the road is simply selfish/greedy/wrong.

    The NBA seems to have struck the right formula for entertainment balanced with risk, but it simply isn't replicable for other sports, especially when it comes to college kids. I'm really disappointed by all of this.

  5. #9385
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by mpj96 View Post
    Not going to put words in freshmanjs's mouth but simply go back and read post #9372 where he agrees with Cdu as to likely outcomes of that approach.

    Really do not get the sniping tone of some posts in response to freshmanjs. The rest of that back and forth seemed about as worthy an argument as how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.
    The tone of my response was because of the hyperbole being used by freshmanjs in his anti-pessimism post (and it wasn’t the first time in this regard - not even within the past 10 days or so).

    And to be clear, I have no problem with freshmanjs wanting to stay hopeful about things. There IS a lot we don’t know yet about the disease, and having hope is a perfectly fine thing to do. I remain hopeful that treatments and eventually vaccines will help us out of this, though I am I think less optimistic than him regarding the “natural history” side of things. I also have no problem with folks being fearful about things. What we DO know about the disease has included quite a bit of bad news, and there is a very real possibility that the death toll could reach the millions without the lockdown or successful vaccine and treatment. Sharing either a hopeful or pessimistic view totally has validity. We are in very complicated and very uncertain times.

    What does get me annoyed (as can be seen in that discussion) is his hyperbole (or condescension in previous posts) in arguing against those who are showing concern/fear about how things are going and/or how they might play out. It is one thing (and totally ok) to voice dissent. It is another to condescend/hyperbole/misrepresent others when voicing that dissent. This was another in a string of such occurrences, which is why I responded the way I did.

  6. #9386
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Reminds me of my Jr High health class. The highlight was a proto-Powerpoint (aka film strip - remember those?) titled "Hope" is not a method.

    -jk

  7. #9387
    the problem with hope is that it caused a bunch of people to not take COVID seriously resulting in widespread opposition to social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing. If we had not engaged in such magical thinking we could have whipped this the way New Zealand did and be reopening the economy/going back to school. but the optimist club thwarted every effort to control the spread resulting in 100k+ unnecessary deaths and prolonged economic misery.

    now they are imagining that maybe half of us are immune just like they used to think that it would go away with the heat or that it could not be spread by children. Every time they they imagine some hypothetical positive possibility and act like its true just because they want it to be true they kill more americans.

  8. #9388
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Reminds me of my Jr High health class. The highlight was a proto-Powerpoint (aka film strip - remember those?) titled "Hope" is not a method.

    -jk
    Quote Originally Posted by niveklaen View Post
    the problem with hope is that it caused a bunch of people to not take COVID seriously resulting in widespread opposition to social distancing, lockdowns, and mask wearing. If we had not engaged in such magical thinking we could have whipped this the way New Zealand did and be reopening the economy/going back to school. but the optimist club thwarted every effort to control the spread resulting in 100k+ unnecessary deaths and prolonged economic misery.

    now they are imagining that maybe half of us are immune just like they used to think that it would go away with the heat or that it could not be spread by children. Every time they they imagine some hypothetical positive possibility and act like its true just because they want it to be true they kill more americans.
    Let’s also be fair to freshmanjs; I should clarify and distinguish here. I agree that blind hope/willful ignorance/defiance is what got us here. But freshmanjs doesn’t need to be lumped in that bucket. He has been consistent in using data to drive his hope. It is the science deniers and those who weren’t willing/able to understand the epidemiology that got us here by rushing the process. From the posts I have read of his, freshmanjs definitely doesn’t seem to be in that group.

    The hope I was referring to is more the kind that freshmanjs (and sage, with his daily tracking of total cases and noting the downward trend in the 7-day average) that I was referring to. The “let’s just let God handle this” type of hope doesn’t register as well with me.

    ETA: Sorry, I think I misread your post, but I think I now get what you are saying: that even reasonable evidence of hope will be latched onto by the science deniers as proof that all is ok and we should go back to normal. If that is your point, I think it has validity, and raises a bigger challenge. We can’t silence any potential positive news for fear of it leading to folks making bad decisions. That would only lead to further distrust. Science has to be transparent. On the other, as you say there is a rather notable collection of folks who will take that good news and misconstrue it (as has already happened). It is indeed quite a dilemma.
    Last edited by CDu; 08-08-2020 at 10:22 AM.

  9. #9389
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    I’m sitting here in the card parking lot as my daughter gets her covid test before we move her into her dorm (brown). Tough couple of days. I’m sorry if my tone was rough.

    I am not a denier by any stretch. I believe that misinformation is bad regardless of which side of an argument it comes from. I believe misinformation is bad even if it leads people to have the “right” opinion. I believe real information is good even if it leads people to have the “wrong” opinion.

    As for me representing “hope” — not feeling much of that as I send twins off to what is likely to be a rocky semester at best at 2 colleges.

  10. #9390

    Atone Mio Bandanas

    In the news headlines there's a study out from Duke on the efficacy of various types of masks and mask material.

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/cont...sciadv.abd3083

    Working from memory (and with a question of my own, or two, to follow):

    Some of the highlights include:

    Stretchy material, which I think means like that of "buffs" (a tube design that can be worn many ways) fared particularly badly. IIRC it performed worse, on average, than no mask at all! Knitted material performed worse than average.
    Bandanas were barely better than no mask at all. It appears they tested bandanas in what some have termed "7-11 mode".
    Short of FITTED N95 and surgical masks, poly/cotton blends performed best, with cotton masks also doing well.

    Questions - assuming these findings can be replicated / are true:

    Would bandanas perform as badly if folded to hold the shape of a more traditional mask? I.e., is it gapping around the jawline that allows relatively more particles to escape?

    I ask because in the early rush for masks, I opted to wear bandanas. I already had many of them and I wear them tight enough to be uncomfortable over the bridge of my nose. In my observations they certainly seal as well as most masks I see worn, esp. the 2 of mine which are 100% polyester. They're very clingy, and larger than the others, so I feel they seal quite well. The rest of mine are cotton, save for 1 cotton blend. I don't feel these others seal as well along my jawline, if worn in "triangle" aka 7-11 mode. I briefly tried another folding method that cradles the nose to chin area better, but the elastics (hair elastics borrowed from Mrs. Cspan) pulled on my ears to an extent that makes them a bit more prominent than I prefer. Maybe I'll work on finding a way to get a strap to wrap around the back of my head instead yanking open my car doors.

    I've seen a couple non-surgical, non-N95 designs that are nicely shaped and probably seal better than the rest. They're shaped in such a way that the front of them is somewhat ridged or peaked, rather than flat. Some examples I've seen are the Keen-labeled ones worn by REI employees when their stores reopened. I think those would be good; I don't know how they are secured, though. Didn't notice.

    Anyway, if these findings are accurate I realize I should change how I mask up, so for reusable masks, what's the retail landscape look like now? Any recommendations - particular brands, models, or stores to find them in? Prefer to buy in person. Thanks!!

  11. #9391
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    I’m sitting here in the card parking lot as my daughter gets her covid test before we move her into her dorm (brown). Tough couple of days. I’m sorry if my tone was rough.

    I am not a denier by any stretch. I believe that misinformation is bad regardless of which side of an argument it comes from. I believe misinformation is bad even if it leads people to have the “right” opinion. I believe real information is good even if it leads people to have the “wrong” opinion.

    As for me representing “hope” — not feeling much of that as I send twins off to what is likely to be a rocky semester at best at 2 colleges.
    Congrats on your daughter going to Duke! Sorry that she is going at such a crazy time. As a parent of a son about to start kindergarten virtually, I can sympathize from the other perspective that he will not be getting the education he would normally get.

    Sorry for my snippy tone too. Difficult times we live in.

    Best wishes to your family staying safe!

  12. #9392
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    In the news headlines there's a study out from Duke on the efficacy of various types of masks and mask material.

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/cont...sciadv.abd3083

    Working from memory (and with a question of my own, or two, to follow):

    Some of the highlights include:

    Stretchy material, which I think means like that of "buffs" (a tube design that can be worn many ways) fared particularly badly. IIRC it performed worse, on average, than no mask at all! Knitted material performed worse than average.
    Bandanas were barely better than no mask at all. It appears they tested bandanas in what some have termed "7-11 mode".
    Short of FITTED N95 and surgical masks, poly/cotton blends performed best, with cotton masks also doing well.

    Questions - assuming these findings can be replicated / are true:

    Would bandanas perform as badly if folded to hold the shape of a more traditional mask? I.e., is it gapping around the jawline that allows relatively more particles to escape?

    I ask because in the early rush for masks, I opted to wear bandanas. I already had many of them and I wear them tight enough to be uncomfortable over the bridge of my nose. In my observations they certainly seal as well as most masks I see worn, esp. the 2 of mine which are 100% polyester. They're very clingy, and larger than the others, so I feel they seal quite well. The rest of mine are cotton, save for 1 cotton blend. I don't feel these others seal as well along my jawline, if worn in "triangle" aka 7-11 mode. I briefly tried another folding method that cradles the nose to chin area better, but the elastics (hair elastics borrowed from Mrs. Cspan) pulled on my ears to an extent that makes them a bit more prominent than I prefer. Maybe I'll work on finding a way to get a strap to wrap around the back of my head instead yanking open my car doors.

    I've seen a couple non-surgical, non-N95 designs that are nicely shaped and probably seal better than the rest. They're shaped in such a way that the front of them is somewhat ridged or peaked, rather than flat. Some examples I've seen are the Keen-labeled ones worn by REI employees when their stores reopened. I think those would be good; I don't know how they are secured, though. Didn't notice.

    Anyway, if these findings are accurate I realize I should change how I mask up, so for reusable masks, what's the retail landscape look like now? Any recommendations - particular brands, models, or stores to find them in? Prefer to buy in person. Thanks!!
    It looks like it may not be just how well it can be fitted, but how the particles that are expelled actually interact with the material. As an example, they showed that a person wearing a fleece mask actually dispersed MORE aerosol than somebody without a face covering at all. The probable explanation for this counterintuitive finding is that the fleece breaks up larger droplet as they pass through it, turning them into aerosols and therefore actually INCREASING the amount of aersols produced. I suspect the bandana problem has to do with pore size as well as fit.

    The best cotton and cotton/poly face coverings that I have were made for me by a friend of my wife's who is a seamstress.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  13. #9393
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Research on the asymptomatic

    Very interesting article in the WaPo on early research into the asymptomatic. Among other things, it seems that being in an area with a high rate of mask wearing may make it more likely that you will be asymptomatic. https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...navirus-covid/

    “Efforts to understand the diversity in the illness are finally beginning to yield results, raising hope the knowledge will help accelerate development of vaccines and therapies — or possibly even create new pathways toward herd immunity in which enough of the population develops a mild version of the virus that they block further spread and the pandemic ends.L

  14. #9394
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    You know, I can foresee wearing a mask on airplane flights for years as a matter of personal choice.

  15. #9395
    Quote Originally Posted by mpj96 View Post
    Not going to put words in freshmanjs's mouth but simply go back and read post #9372 where he agrees with Cdu as to likely outcomes of that approach.

    Really do not get the sniping tone of some posts in response to freshmanjs. The rest of that back and forth seemed about as worthy an argument as how many angels can fit on the head of a pin.
    No sniping tone here. Just a straightforward question, the answer to which I am genuinely interested in. freshmanjs seems to be following things closely and thinking things through, so I would like to elucidate his viewpoint.

  16. #9396
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Let’s also be fair to freshmanjs; I should clarify and distinguish here. I agree that blind hope/willful ignorance/defiance is what got us here. But freshmanjs doesn’t need to be lumped in that bucket. He has been consistent in using data to drive his hope. It is the science deniers and those who weren’t willing/able to understand the epidemiology that got us here by rushing the process. From the posts I have read of his, freshmanjs definitely doesn’t seem to be in that group.

    The hope I was referring to is more the kind that freshmanjs (and sage, with his daily tracking of total cases and noting the downward trend in the 7-day average) that I was referring to. The “let’s just let God handle this” type of hope doesn’t register as well with me.

    ETA: Sorry, I think I misread your post, but I think I now get what you are saying: that even reasonable evidence of hope will be latched onto by the science deniers as proof that all is ok and we should go back to normal. If that is your point, I think it has validity, and raises a bigger challenge. We can’t silence any potential positive news for fear of it leading to folks making bad decisions. That would only lead to further distrust. Science has to be transparent. On the other, as you say there is a rather notable collection of folks who will take that good news and misconstrue it (as has already happened). It is indeed quite a dilemma.

    Yes, even reasonable evidence will be latched onto by science deniers, but its worse than that - there is a lot of motivated science reporting - studies that cherry pick data and that make highly questionable assumptions to push a hopeful agenda that are exceptionally difficult to distinguish from good science. While I want to give the benefit of the doubt to people like freshmanjs who do their level best to reasonably interpret these studies, the consequences of falling for this bad hopeful science are awful. Its a false equivalency to pretend that the hope approach is in any way equivalent to the pessimism approach - gullibly falling for the hope agenda kills Americans. Too many of us have been fooled by the hope charlatans too many times. The only reasonable approach is to accept that the hope studies cannot be relied upon.

  17. #9397
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    What do you think will happen if we let thing play out?
    Good question. I don’t want to find out!

    I suspect the answer is that we’d have a continued peak for a couple more months then a decline. Then another wave in the fall or winter.

    I suspect the total infected over the first couple of years would be much less than 100% of the population, but I don’t really know of course.

  18. #9398
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by AustinDevil View Post
    I'd rather know what "freshmanjs" and others propounding "let it play out" viewpoints can do to guarantee their rosier outcomes. That's where the real burden of espousing that "que sera, sera" attitude lies, I believe. And it should include not just avoidance of deaths, but also avoidance of things like brain damage, which studies are finding in a shockingly high percentage of COVID patients.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/e...228-5/fulltext
    I do not now and have not ever propounded a let it play out viewpoint.

  19. #9399
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I think I read something that said that if we "just let it wash through," to use 45's artful term, it would take several years, not months, to get to herd immunity. And that it wouldn't achieve the end of saving the economy in the short or medium term, because the effects on workforce participation (many survivors will be disabled) and disruption of existing industries would offset the gains the laissez-faire approach would offer. You don't just magically get to herd immunity by Christmas 2020 or something. 60% or 70% of 327M people is a lot of people to infect, and even if it proceeded relatively unhindered by lockdowns or demi-lockdowns, it still takes a long while, given that a lot of people don't want to contract it and aren't going to consent to a simultaneous 200M-person chicken pox party on the Bonneville Salt Flats, say. I don't math so good so I'll go look for whatever I read in April.

  20. #9400
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I think I read something that said that if we "just let it wash through," to use 45's artful term, it would take several years, not months, to get to herd immunity. And that it wouldn't achieve the end of saving the economy in the short or medium term, because the effects on workforce participation (many survivors will be disabled) and disruption of existing industries would offset the gains the laissez-faire approach would offer. You don't just magically get to herd immunity by Christmas 2020 or something. 60% or 70% of 327M people is a lot of people to infect, and even if it proceeded relatively unhindered by lockdowns or demi-lockdowns, it still takes a long while, given that a lot of people don't want to contract it and aren't going to consent to a simultaneous 200M-person chicken pox party on the Bonneville Salt Flats, say. I don't math so good so I'll go look for whatever I read in April.
    This assumes that the starting point for herd immunity was 0. That may be true, but it may not be true. If it’s not true, all of the conclusions would be different.

Similar Threads

  1. Masters 2020
    By OldPhiKap in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 175
    Last Post: 11-20-2020, 09:24 PM
  2. 2020 NBA Playoffs
    By cato in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 1349
    Last Post: 10-17-2020, 11:29 PM
  3. Coronavirus - those we've lost
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 62
    Last Post: 05-08-2020, 09:42 PM
  4. FB: 2020 Schedule is out
    By nocilla in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 01-22-2020, 07:08 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •