Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wait, what? Not saying you're wrong, but that would really really surprise me. He wasn't exactly known for defense previously.

It's true! In his years in Minnesota, he went from a defensive liability to an elite defender, ranking right up there with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson on what was an otherwise lackluster defensive squad. By Defensive Box Plus-Minus, he has been among the leaders at his position. He's pesky.

[CDu]

It's true! In his years in Minnesota, he went from a defensive liability to an elite defender, ranking right up there with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson on what was an otherwise lackluster defensive squad. By Defensive Box Plus-Minus, he has been among the leaders at his position. He's pesky.

Worth noting that this is really only true for one, maybe two seasons seasons. His 2017 was quite solid (0.7 DBPM) and his 2018 was great (1.7 DBPM). But in 2019 his DBPM was just okay (0.3 DBPM), and his 2020 season with Memphis was fairly pedestrian (0.1 DBPM, and a negative DRPM). So it is not clear if his defensive success in 2018 was driven by system or what, but it hasn’t been sustained.

I certainly don’t think he is a sieve, but I am not sure that elite is an accurate label of his defense anymore.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Worth noting that this is really only true for one, maybe two seasons seasons. His 2017 was quite solid (0.7 DBPM) and his 2018 was great (1.7 DBPM). But in 2019 his DBPM was just okay (0.3 DBPM), and his 2020 season with Memphis was fairly pedestrian (0.1 DBPM, and a negative DRPM). So it is not clear if his defensive success in 2018 was driven by system or what, but it hasn’t been sustained.

I certainly don’t think he is a sieve, but I am not sure that elite is an accurate label of his defense anymore.

But is he a bumslayer? 😉

[-jk]

But is he a bumslayer? 😉

I thought we were done with Game of Thrones.

-jk

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jeff Goodman at Stadium put out his own mock draft with some interesting projections for a pair of former Dukies. Goodman says that he spoke with more than a dozen NBA executives and watched countless college basketball games to put this mock together. Personally. I don't think he's as tapped into what the NBA is looking for these days as much as others. Goodman is really focused on the college game. I'd trust the mocks from Jonathan Givony of ESPN or Sam Vecenie of The Athletic before Goodman. Still. he's clearly put the work into making this mock. Here are the Dukies he has in the first round:

14. Portland Trailblazers: Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Boston Celtics: Cassius Stanley

[flyingdutchdevil]

Jeff Goodman at Stadium put out his own mock draft with some interesting projections for a pair of former Dukies. Goodman says that he spoke with more than a dozen NBA executives and watched countless college basketball games to put this mock together. Personally. I don't think he's as tapped into what the NBA is looking for these days as much as others. Goodman is really focused on the college game. I'd trust the mocks from Jonathan Givony of ESPN or Sam Vecenie of The Athletic before Goodman. Still. he's clearly put the work into making this mock. Here are the Dukies he has in the first round:

14. Portland Trailblazers: Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Boston Celtics: Cassius Stanley

This is much more in line with what I'm thinking, although I think Carey will be high teens/low 20s.

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see Tre in the first round, but I'm not expecting it.

[beach rev]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nb...st-projections

[superdave]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nb...st-projections

Nobody has scouted anyone, held workouts, checked anyone's BMI, etc in months.

I guess I will wait until we have a draft date set to pay more attention to this.

[kAzE]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nb...st-projections

I would be flabbergasted if 30 teams pass on Vernon Carey. I'm not saying he should go in the lottery, but come on. This kid is immensely talented. He would have been a top 5 pick 10 years ago. He'll probably be compared to Jahlil Okafor, but he's a much better shooter than Okafor from the perimeter, and he doesn't have the maturity issues. I think he'll be a very solid rotation player in the NBA for a long time.

Also, Cassius Stanley is going to be a steal for someone in the 2nd round. He might never become a great ball handler, but the 3&D potential is big time. He's going to be a major piece for whatever team he plays for.

[JasonEvans]

Woj says the NBA is going to have the draft lottery on Aug 25 and the draft on October 15th.

[JasonEvans]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

[CameronBornAndBred]

I would be flabbergasted if 30 teams pass on Vernon Carey.

Has there ever been a high profile OAD from Duke not go in the first? Again...high profile, like both ACC and National FOY, 1st Team All ACC high profile.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

[JasonEvans]

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

Obi Toppin is the only sure-fire lottery pick who played for a team that was... you know... actually good last year. I mean, I guess Auburn was ok (#33 in KenPom) but after Toppin the next players from teams that matter on that board are the Florida State dudes who could fall anywhere from #10 to #25 or so. I agree, it just isn't an interesting draft.

-Jason "someone is gonna get a steal in Vernon Carey... his shot blocking and outside shot are both very underrated and I suspect he will be a solid rotation player. Hard to find those in the late first round" Evans

[Truth&Justise]

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

[sagegrouse]

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

My interpretation is that, in the draft after Zion Williamson, everything seems like small potatoes

[luvdahops]

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

Fair points, but from my seat, the consensus top ~10 prospects, in whatever order you rank them, is the least inspiring in recent memory. And by a wide margin.

[JasonEvans]

Fair points, but from my seat, the consensus top ~10 prospects, in whatever order you rank them, is the least inspiring in recent memory. And by a wide margin.

Any of the top 3 from last year would be a lock to be the #1 pick in this year's draft and picks #4 - #6 would be under serious consideration for #1 this year.
Any of the top 5 or maybe even top 7 or 8 from the 2018 draft class would be a lock to be #1 in this class.

-Jason "by the way, I suspect 2018 will go down as one of the great draft classes in history... at least 8 guys in that class seem the be future All-Stars" Evans

[MChambers]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

I have no idea who Jason McIntyre is, but Tillman at 17 and Vernon not in the first 30 seems hard to believe.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Obviously, Vernon just needs to come back. File a COVID Waiver Claim with the NCAA.