Some days it makes sense. Some days it don't.
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And here I was thinking about buying JETS (airline ETF) given the 30% drop in 3 weeks. I definitely think they're going to get crushed on earnings, but that has been priced in now. It's currently at levels not seen in 5 years...Having said that, seems a bit risky right now, but may jump in if there's some price stabilization. I think the long-term prospects of airlines hasn't changed, certainly short-term they have.
Some days it makes sense. Some days it don't.
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I viewed yesterday’s action as irrational. One major airline announced curbs on flights in April and further cuts to international flights for April and May. Airline stocks went up, I believe pulled by the large index funds. I shorted simply because the news flow didn’t match the near term reality. I’m debating taking today’s profit and running even though I view more downside is in the offing.
And down some more. It looks like we will get the infamous retesting of the lows from last week. I'll decide at that point whether to let the knife drop.
Hard at work making beautiful things.
My 5% purchase orders are pretty close to getting filled at this point. Probably a couple hundred more points and they should start kicking in. I hear ya'll on the knife thing, but I'd rather catch it at a certain point than try to guess at the low and miss out altogether. These funds are for use in 10+ years from now so being exacting it not that big a deal.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
They are a relatively high fixed cost model. Exactly what suffers most going in to a recession. That the current situation mainly deals with human interaction further exacerbates the issue for that sector. They should be down more than the market in general. I’m not sure about the above ETF, but the few I’ve been looking at are down 23-27% to the markets 13%. That they are bouncing today could be a sign that they are bottoming and that the market will bottom soon as the hotels are also down less than the market today.
Last edited by YmoBeThere; 03-06-2020 at 12:27 PM.
a lot of airlines lease a substantial number of planes, so I'm not sure how helpful that is. Basically they own or lease a lot of assets which need to be used...utilization rates have been terrific the past few years, this is definitely a sizeable hiccup.
Investment-wise, I'm finding this a terrific time to just sit back and wait for things to return to normal...might take weeks, might take months, but they eventually will.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/busin...ray/index.html
See that way down there? Those are oil prices. Those wacky Saudis and Russkis can't seem to come to an agreement on production cuts (always a tricky process filled with bombast, and quite often dishonesty)...
Hard at work making beautiful things.
Another wild last few minutes of the week...nice bump up...but man, crazy wild ride two weeks in a row.