2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBornAndBred]

WOW

Half of American voters want President Donald Trump impeached and removed from office, according to a poll released Sunday from Fox News that was taken as House Democrats unveiled two articles of impeachment against the President.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/15/polit...ump/index.html

[JasonEvans]

WOW

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/15/polit...ump/index.html

Why the wow? Impeachment has been at about 50% in virtually all the polls lately. Until the numbers get into at least the mid-50s you won't be getting many Republicans on board and that means it is political suicide for most Republicans to support impeachment.

I am guessing the "wow" was because it was a Fox news poll. Though many folks feel Fox news is biased in its coverage and reporting, something scientific like a poll is not subject to political bias (unless the pollster wants to fake their results, but Fox news is not know for doing anything like that). It is not at all surprising for a Fox News poll to produce results very much in line with what we are seeing from other reputable polling organizations.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Why the wow? Impeachment has been at about 50% in virtually all the polls lately. Until the numbers get into at least the mid-50s you won't be getting many Republicans on board and that means it is political suicide for most Republicans to support impeachment.

I am guessing the "wow" was because it was a Fox news poll.

Answered your own question.
Cue up POTUS Tweet storm in 3-2-1
PS...this is not impeachment, this is REMOVAL. And no, that number has not been at 50% in virtually all polls lately. Not for impeachment (mid 40s maybe) nor removal. Not lately. It spiked up back in October then dropped.

If anyone thinks that 50% is an insignificant number, I've got a couple old pre-core math books laying around.
This being a FOX poll is actually pretty big in my mind. His base watches, and so does Congress. His base won't change, but there are Senators paying attention. I don't expect a single one of them to change their vote because of this, but at the same time, the analogy is feeling your arm go numb and walking past the ER because you are telling the group you're with you just nailed your funny bone.
It might not end well for you.

[JasonEvans]

The Fox News survey is just one poll and we should never read too much into one poll. Just hours after the Fox poll was released, a USA Today/Suffolk Univ. poll found just 45% in favor of the senate removing him from office (51-45 is the number in the USA Today poll).

From where I sit, removal from office looks like it is still sitting a just a tad under 50% of the nation... and as I said earlier, until it spikes to the mid-50s, there is very little chance most GOP senators even dream about voting in favor or removal (maybe Romney, Collins and one or two others... but not enough to really move the needle).

[OldPhiKap]

Trump's tweets this morning make me more convinced than ever that he will never actually debate the Democratic nominee. It will become a side-show of negotiations ("I'll only do it if OANN has a representative or Sean Hannity is a moderator," etc.) and the goalposts will keep moving.

That may help him with the base, but I cannot see how that helps with independents. It looks like he's skeart.

[sagegrouse]

Trump's tweets this morning make me more convinced than ever that he will never actually debate the Democratic nominee. It will become a side-show of negotiations ("I'll only do it if OANN has a representative or Sean Hannity is a moderator," etc.) and the goalposts will keep moving.

That may help him with the base, but I cannot see how that helps with independents. It looks like he's skeart.

By the way, Schumer is on a roll today, requesting four witnesses at the Senate trial, including Bolton and Mulvaney. It both responds to the statements by some Repubs that there is not enough evidence of wrongdoing by the President, and it enables him to scream "Coverup!" if they don't go along. By the way, he only has to convince a few Republican senators to agree to witnesses in order to carry the day with 51 votes. I suspect Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), Romney (UT), Murkowski (AK) and some others are persuadable.

[OldPhiKap]

By the way, Schumer is on a roll today, requesting four witnesses at the Senate trial, including Bolton and Mulvaney. It both responds to the statements by some Repubs that there is not enough evidence of wrongdoing by the President, and it enables him to scream "Coverup!" if they don't go along. By the way, he only has to convince a few Republican senators to agree to witnesses in order to carry the day with 51 votes. I suspect Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), Romney (UT), Murkowski (AK) and some others are persuadable.

And there also is some talk of holding up the House vote in order for Schumer to try and get as good a deal on the trial side as he can. Not sure how much leverage that really is though; it seems that it is the Dems and not the Reps that want to move this to the other chamber by the end of the year. McConnell would be more than happy to have a trial during the run-up to Super Tuesday.

[Nick]

The Fox News survey is just one poll and we should never read too much into one poll. Just hours after the Fox poll was released, a USA Today/Suffolk Univ. poll found just 45% in favor of the senate removing him from office (51-45 is the number in the USA Today poll).

From where I sit, removal from office looks like it is still sitting a just a tad under 50% of the nation... and as I said earlier, until it spikes to the mid-50s, there is very little chance most GOP senators even dream about voting in favor or removal (maybe Romney, Collins and one or two others... but not enough to really move the needle).

There are impeachment poll averages at 538 (here) and RCP (here).

I would guess there are more than a few Republican Senators who would be happy to be rid of Trump but they know the base would revolt.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I would guess there are more than a few Republican Senators who would be happy to be rid of Trump but they know the base would revolt.

Irony is that the "base" would have still re-elected them if anyone in 2016 had been elected but Trump, and likely in higher numbers. That goes for if either party had won.
Now, they are beholden-ed to a very powerful group of people that are under 40% of the electorate.

[bundabergdevil]

Irony is that the "base" would have still re-elected them if anyone in 2016 had been elected but Trump, and likely in higher numbers. That goes for if either party had won.
Now, they are beholden-ed to a very powerful group of people that are under 40% of the electorate.

Closer to 25-30% (which is obviously under 40).

[CameronBornAndBred]

During his bad week, something to make Trump happy.

The national survey, taken as the House of Representatives planned an impeachment vote and the Senate a trial, showed Trump defeating former Vice President Joe Biden by 3 percentage points, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 5 points, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8 points.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/usa-today...215953702.html

[Devilwin]

Can't wait til November!!

[PackMan97]

Can't wait til November!!

That excited about the 2024 thread

[JasonEvans]

I really truly hope folks won't find this partisan... here is a clip from a Daily Show segment where they went out and found tons of Trump supporters who were adamant that we all must read the transcript to understand that the President is 100% innocent. "Read the transcript," they said again and again... and then the Daily Show reporter asks them if they have read the transcript themselves.

Hilarity ensues.

(url redacted... bad idea by me)

[elvis14]

Can't wait til November!!

I know so many people that feel this way. Some of which are coming of age (my daughter is a HS senior, turns 18 in Jan and can't wait to vote...with her friends) and quite a few who have left the sidelines to do work for the first time or are donating when they have not in the past.

[Nick]

I really truly hope folks won't find this partisan... here is a clip from a Daily Show segment where they went out and found tons of Trump supporters who were adamant that we all must read the transcript to understand that the President is 100% innocent. "Read the transcript," they said again and again... and then the Daily Show reporter asks them if they have read the transcript themselves.

Hilarity ensues.

(redacted)

Would it be partisan if I found a video of a right-wing comedian pulling a similar stunt with lefty voters ("Louder with Crowder" or something along those lines)? Based on my past experience here I'm guessing I'd be reported and my post deleted.

[dudog84]

Would it be partisan if I found a video of a right-wing comedian pulling a similar stunt with lefty voters ("Louder with Crowder" or something along those lines)? Based on my past experience here I'm guessing I'd be reported and my post deleted.

Is there such a thing? I need to watch FoxNews more.

Sorry, hope you take that good-naturedly. But when I think of the great comedians (Carlin, Pryor, etc.) I don't think right-wing. A lot of illicit substances involved for instance. Maybe conservative viewpoints don't lend themselves as well to humor I guess.

[PackMan97]

Would it be partisan if I found a video of a right-wing comedian pulling a similar stunt with lefty voters ("Louder with Crowder" or something along those lines)? Based on my past experience here I'm guessing I'd be reported and my post deleted.

... And does anyone think I can't go to any busy street in America and find idiots that want to be on camera?

The best I swapped the positions for each candidate and still had lots of folks gushing over their candidate. One person could sense something wasn't right, but still professed their support.

[OldPhiKap]

Is there such a thing? I need to watch FoxNews more.

Sorry, hope you take that good-naturedly. But when I think of the great comedians (Carlin, Pryor, etc.) I don't think right-wing. A lot of illicit substances involved for instance. Maybe conservative viewpoints don't lend themselves as well to humor I guess.

Dennis Miller, Tim Allen, Ron White, Norm Macdonald, Bill Engvall, Adam Corolla, P.J. O'Rourke, and others would quibble.

[dudog84]

Dennis Miller, Tim Allen, Ron White, Norm Macdonald, Bill Engvall, Adam Corolla, P.J. O'Rourke, and others would quibble.

None of those guys can touch the shoelaces of George Carlin.

I take your point though.