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  1. #301
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Your main point is well taken, but I would say that some of our lesser recruits are not playing up to the standards of much lower recruited players at some other schools it seems. The article on Javin was over the top to be sure, but it made some valid points...
    I don't know why Javin has been shooting so poorly this season, especially at the rim (where he continues to take 75%+ of his shots). But considering his history, I expect that will come around. Beyond that, I don't think the article has any validity at all.

    First of all, I've said this before, but Javin does appear to have improved his game since last season. His turnovers are way down from last season, his assists are up. His rebounding is up, his steals are up, and his usage has almost doubled, meaning he's being much more aggressive on the offensive end. And he continues to be an outstanding defender. Does he foul too much? Absolutely. Again as I've said before, this is the primary hurdle to him being an extremely productive college player.

    As far as our lesser recruits not playing as well as similar (or even lower) recruits at other schools, I think the largest part of that is opportunity. You see it in the NBA all the time. A top player gets hurt, and the backup who generally played 10mpg starts playing 35mpg and starts scoring 18 ppg with 8 rpg (or 6 apg or whatever). It's astonishing -- where did that come from? But the thing is almost all NBA players are really good and if they get 35mpg they can produce. Invariably, when the injured star comes back, the backup returns to his 10mpg, low-output life and people forget how many numbers he put up in his brief chance.

    It's the same thing in college (obviously at a lower level). If Joey Baker was playing 36mpg and scoring almost 15 ppg, few people would say he was underachieving. If Javin got even 20mpg and was putting up 5.5 ppg and 7 rpg, with almost 2 steals and one block per game, that article never would have been written - instead people might be writing about "Duke's secret weapon." At other schools, those guys might be getting those minutes, and someone around here would be complaining how come those kinds of players do so much better at those schools than at Duke.

  2. #302
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't know why Javin has been shooting so poorly this season, especially at the rim (where he continues to take 75%+ of his shots). But considering his history, I expect that will come around. Beyond that, I don't think the article has any validity at all.

    First of all, I've said this before, but Javin does appear to have improved his game since last season. His turnovers are way down from last season, his assists are up. His rebounding is up, his steals are up, and his usage has almost doubled, meaning he's being much more aggressive on the offensive end. And he continues to be an outstanding defender. Does he foul too much? Absolutely. Again as I've said before, this is the primary hurdle to him being an extremely productive college player.

    As far as our lesser recruits not playing as well as similar (or even lower) recruits at other schools, I think the largest part of that is opportunity. You see it in the NBA all the time. A top player gets hurt, and the backup who generally played 10mpg starts playing 35mpg and starts scoring 18 ppg with 8 rpg (or 6 apg or whatever). It's astonishing -- where did that come from? But the thing is almost all NBA players are really good and if they get 35mpg they can produce. Invariably, when the injured star comes back, the backup returns to his 10mpg, low-output life and people forget how many numbers he put up in his brief chance.

    It's the same thing in college (obviously at a lower level). If Joey Baker was playing 36mpg and scoring almost 15 ppg, few people would say he was underachieving. If Javin got even 20mpg and was putting up 5.5 ppg and 7 rpg, with almost 2 steals and one block per game, that article never would have been written - instead people might be writing about "Duke's secret weapon." At other schools, those guys might be getting those minutes, and someone around here would be complaining how come those kinds of players do so much better at those schools than at Duke.
    Javin doesn't simply foul too much. He's an absurd foul machine. Therefore, more minutes are nearly impossible. And last year's shooting was indeed helped by all the attention on Zion, and to some extent, RJ. I predict it will not really come around (though maybe better than his terrible % so far a little bit).

    His hands remain terrible on rebounds and pass catching. He is often out of control, and he has dinged Bags and Zion to name a few...on his own team. Is there a stat for rebounds he got his hands on and didn't get? That would be an interesting one. Or a stat for teammates dinged by being out of control. A top 35 recruiting status would indicate being a top 140 player nationally. He's nowhere near.

  3. #303
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Fayetteville, NC

    It's All About the Right Balance

    You don't mix 1oz. of vodka with a quart of orange juice and call that a screwdriver. You also don't mix a quart of vodka with 1oz. of orange juice and call that a proper screwdriver, however after the last game I'm sure some of us wouldn't have minded.

    Building a team requires the same balance of ingredients. A OAD phenom sprinkled in with your 4 year players. Of course that's easier said than done as we saw in 2015. At the start of that season nobody saw Jones or Winslow as being OAD players.

    Since you want to recruit the best possible players the only way I see this situation improving is if Coach K. changes his coaching style and expands his rotation so that those players who are in it for the long haul get some meaningful playing time. Of course I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for that change.

  4. #304
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Javin doesn't simply foul too much. He's an absurd foul machine. Therefore, more minutes are nearly impossible. And last year's shooting was indeed helped by all the attention on Zion, and to some extent, RJ. I predict it will not really come around (though maybe better than his terrible % so far a little bit).

    His hands remain terrible on rebounds and pass catching. He is often out of control, and he has dinged Bags and Zion to name a few...on his own team. Is there a stat for rebounds he got his hands on and didn't get? That would be an interesting one. Or a stat for teammates dinged by being out of control. A top 35 recruiting status would indicate being a top 140 player nationally. He's nowhere near.
    Fair. Which is too bad. His game really progressed in the NCAA tourney. He was playing good D without excess fouling, getting boards, and getting shots inside and putbacks. And his free throws were improving. I felt he was trending in the right direction and would continue to do so coming into this season. I think he still can.

  5. #305
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Here’s the thing. When you eschew recruiting players you feel will likely be OAD in favor of those who probably will not be, you have to be willing to have a semi-down year here and there while these guys gain experience.
    Absolutely. But it doesn't seem like too many Duke fans are willing to do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    And once the team is consistently eschewing OAD types, the necessity of having down years would be eliminated because the program would be based around guys staying 3-4 years.
    Maybe. Maybe not. Part of that depends on what you consider a "down year." The seasons from 2007 to 2014 are the closest we've seen (in recent times) to what you describe. In that period, we had five top 10 recruits, eight recruits ranked between 11 and 20, eight recruits ranked in the 20s, and 11 recruits ranked 30 or lower. So, higher-ranked than they could be today and be expected to stick around, but we only had three OADs in that eight year period, plus a couple guys who left for the NBA after two years and one who left after three.

    In that period, we had three first-round tournament exits, one second-round exit, two disappointing Sweet Sixteens, an Elite Eight, and a championship. Based on the complaint levels on this board, six of those eight seasons were considered by many (most?) as "down years."

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    We used to expect players to be major contributors in their junior and senior years. Well, if OADs come in every year, like has been the case for many years now at Duke, the lower-level recruits never get a chance to be the main players on the team and are not allowed to properly grow into the players they could be, like they are able to do at other schools.

    Right now we have a program that has fully and completely bought-in to the Kentucky-type OAD recruiting for quite a few years now, so our lesser-level recruits have been put in a situation that is not conducive to them reaching their full potential.
    I agree with what you're saying here. The question is whether this is an acceptable downside to bringing in the best available talent. I suppose reasonable minds can differ about that.

  6. #306
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Javin doesn't simply foul too much. He's an absurd foul machine. Therefore, more minutes are nearly impossible.
    Even at his current "absurd" fouling pace, Javin could average 20mpg before he fouled out, if Coach K would allow him to be on the floor that long. That's why I chose 20mpg in my example.

    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    And last year's shooting was indeed helped by all the attention on Zion, and to some extent, RJ. I predict it will not really come around (though maybe better than his terrible % so far a little bit).
    Combining Javin's first two seasons (i.e., not including last year), Javin shot 73.6% from two-point range. Which suggests that Zion and RJ had little to do with Javin's 75.6% two-point shooting% last season. Obviously, you're free to predict whatever you wish.

  7. #307
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    You also don't mix a quart of vodka with 1oz. of orange juice and call that a proper screwdriver,
    speak for yourself
    1200. DDMF.

  8. #308
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    It seems to me Javin has lost all confidence in himself. The terrible foul rate, bungled passes, bungled rebounds, lack of body control and terrible shooting has taken a toll on the young man. He seemed to be so excited for this season to begin as he mentioned that he had worked hard with the coaches on shooting and could see improvement there. Then the season begins and he it's all collapsing on him. The article posted was way over board and harsh, but the same article did have some truth to it. Personally I don't think Javin is athletic as some fans have said. He does not have good body control. He has a very hard time finishing at the rim if he's contested. That, I think comes from lack of strength. I know I'm probably in the minority in this, but I feel like Marques would have been more helpful to this team than Javin. But that's water under the bridge now and we have to go with what we have. I don't think using Justin Robinson would be any worse than using Javin at this point. At least he can hit a 3 pointer once in a while and he knows the Duke system. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Justin be the first player that subs for Vernon when he needs a rest. I've seen Coach K do more surprising things(see Zone defense). GoDuke!

  9. #309
    We have a freshman center who his 270 pounds. It is unrealistic to see him play much more than 25 MPG while continuing to be energetic on the court. The point is that we will need a backup to sub for him. Despite Javin's shortcomings, he is probably the best alternative. The article named Justin Robinson, the Worthington kid, none of us has seen, or perhaps Moore even to take that role. To date, coach K has not moved Javin further down the bench. That is probably due to his assessment of the alternatives.

    The other point in the article was that we aren't developing our secondary players such that when they reach the Junior and Senior levels, they can become substantial contributors. While the article was over the top in criticism, there was a modicum of truth to it. Lets hope Javin, AOC, Joey and Jordan can blunt the criticism with their improved play.

  10. #310
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    It seems to me Javin has lost all confidence in himself. The terrible foul rate, bungled passes, bungled rebounds, lack of body control and terrible shooting has taken a toll on the young man. He seemed to be so excited for this season to begin as he mentioned that he had worked hard with the coaches on shooting and could see improvement there. Then the season begins and he it's all collapsing on him. The article posted was way over board and harsh, but the same article did have some truth to it. Personally I don't think Javin is athletic as some fans have said. He does not have good body control. He has a very hard time finishing at the rim if he's contested. That, I think comes from lack of strength. I know I'm probably in the minority in this, but I feel like Marques would have been more helpful to this team than Javin. But that's water under the bridge now and we have to go with what we have. I don't think using Justin Robinson would be any worse than using Javin at this point. At least he can hit a 3 pointer once in a while and he knows the Duke system. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Justin be the first player that subs for Vernon when he needs a rest. I've seen Coach K do more surprising things(see Zone defense). GoDuke!
    "Bungled rebounds"? Javin's current rebounding rates on both sides of the ball (23.0% DR; 14.6% OR) would have both been best on last year's team. On this year's team, he's 2nd in DR% and 1st in OR%. Whether or not he corrals every single ball he gets a hand on, he's getting plenty of boards (more per minute than anyone else on the team except Vernon).

    He's also ten times the defender that Justin Robinson is. So it would surprise me very much if Justin leapfrogged Javin in the rotation. Blaming Javin DeLaurier (who played 6 minutes) for our loss to SFA is ludicrous.

  11. #311
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    It seems to me Javin has lost all confidence in himself. The terrible foul rate, bungled passes, bungled rebounds, lack of body control and terrible shooting has taken a toll on the young man. He seemed to be so excited for this season to begin as he mentioned that he had worked hard with the coaches on shooting and could see improvement there. Then the season begins and he it's all collapsing on him. The article posted was way over board and harsh, but the same article did have some truth to it. Personally I don't think Javin is athletic as some fans have said. He does not have good body control. He has a very hard time finishing at the rim if he's contested. That, I think comes from lack of strength. I know I'm probably in the minority in this, but I feel like Marques would have been more helpful to this team than Javin. But that's water under the bridge now and we have to go with what we have. I don't think using Justin Robinson would be any worse than using Javin at this point. At least he can hit a 3 pointer once in a while and he knows the Duke system. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Justin be the first player that subs for Vernon when he needs a rest. I've seen Coach K do more surprising things(see Zone defense). GoDuke!
    1st bold: up to this point, i think you're absolutely right. Although Kedsey has pointed out that many of Javin's stats are better this year than previously, his atrocious FG% really hampers his utility. Many of the negatives people point out in Javin's game were not really part of Big 'Ques's game (ie., 6 year old girl hands), although 'Ques still had issues. I'm not sure Big 'Ques would start over Carey, though they may have come to play a Twin Towers type lineup, since Carey does have some outside game, which would allow Hurt to hide his lack of strength at the SF position instead of it getting exposed at the PF position. Regardless, even if 'Ques was playing backup to Carey i think he'd still be providing more value to Duke than Javin currently is.
    2nd bold: I wish J-Rob had gotten more run thru his career so that he would be more prepared for this moment, b/c i think K should give him a shot now due to Javin's lack of reliability. I've been pulling hard for Javin his whole career, but his confidence and his game needs to get rebuilt going forward.

  12. #312
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    1st bold: up to this point, i think you're absolutely right. Although Kedsey has pointed out that many of Javin's stats are better this year than previously, his atrocious FG% really hampers his utility. Many of the negatives people point out in Javin's game were not really part of Big 'Ques's game (ie., 6 year old girl hands), although 'Ques still had issues. I'm not sure Big 'Ques would start over Carey, though they may have come to play a Twin Towers type lineup, since Carey does have some outside game, which would allow Hurt to hide his lack of strength at the SF position instead of it getting exposed at the PF position. Regardless, even if 'Ques was playing backup to Carey i think he'd still be providing more value to Duke than Javin currently is.
    2nd bold: I wish J-Rob had gotten more run thru his career so that he would be more prepared for this moment, b/c i think K should give him a shot now due to Javin's lack of reliability. I've been pulling hard for Javin his whole career, but his confidence and his game needs to get rebuilt going forward.
    I like what you’ve written here except for wondering if Bolden would have started over Carey had he not left Duke. From what I’ve seen of Carey thus far, Bolden is not even close.

  13. #313
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Even at his current "absurd" fouling pace, Javin could average 20mpg before he fouled out, if Coach K would allow him to be on the floor that long. That's why I chose 20mpg in my example.


    Combining Javin's first two seasons (i.e., not including last year), Javin shot 73.6% from two-point range. Which suggests that Zion and RJ had little to do with Javin's 75.6% two-point shooting% last season. Obviously, you're free to predict whatever you wish.
    Why don't you crunch some more numbers and see what Javin's foul per minute stat is when games are in the balance? I assert he can't stay in a close game 20 minutes, not even close. And in this past game, when we needed inside presence more than ever, he was not helpful.

    And in the previous year, it was Bagley, Allen and Carter drawing attention, freeing up Javin. So same deal, same result, and same point stood behind...

  14. #314
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Why don't you crunch some more numbers and see what Javin's foul per minute stat is when games are in the balance? I assert he can't stay in a close game 20 minutes, not even close. And in this past game, when we needed inside presence more than ever, he was not helpful.

    And in the previous year, it was Bagley, Allen and Carter drawing attention, freeing up Javin. So same deal, same result, and same point stood behind...
    although i dig what you're getting at, i think you're losing sight of something, namely that no one is saying that Javin is or was ever thought to be the focus of the offense, ie., he's a role-player. As such, there are always going to be other players to point to as far as drawing attention away from role-players. Although it does seem that Javin has been asked to or volunteered for more of an offensive role this year, the flip side of that coin is that there aren't as many players to draw attention away from him. Carey is really the only player who Duke is just giving the ball to and is also being consistently effective with it. So yes, in an attempt to expand the use of a role player on offense combined withe fact that there are fewer other players to focus on, Javin's weakness on offense is getting exposed. That doesn't mean any of the stats that Kedsy pointed out are wrong or somehow have less meaning.
    Also, the passive-aggressive (expletive deleted) tone to start your comment does nothing to help assert your point.

  15. #315

    Thanks, Jim! ...and a question

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    As someone who sat 10 feet away from Krzyzewski during the post-game I can state with reasonable certainty that he did care that Duke lost. The man looked like someone had just run over his dog.

    And his messages about playing strong and finishing plays seemed to be aimed at everyone, Carey yes, but also the star point-guard who had eight turnovers, the 6-9 power forward who had two rebounds in 24 minutes, the senior backup center who looked hopelessly lost, the junior wing who sat on the bench as the game collapsed because the head coach didn't trust him enough to put him on the floor.

    Duke thought it had sent its statement during practice. These guys are tough, physical veterans who will play hard for 40 minutes and you'd better be prepared to match that. The players nodded, said yes, they understood and went out and played with a sense of sloppy entitlement. Duke tried to reassert that message during timeouts, during halftime and it just did not resonate. Nobody listened.
    I really appreciate this post. I know I wasn't the only fan who thought that Duke looked like they weren't fighting, and who were overconfident, entitled, whatever. [Toward the end, I was beginning to root for SFA because I greatly admired their toughness and team play, I like underdogs, and I hated to think that our guys might think they they truly earned a win if they had eked out a 1 or 2 point win.] I couldn't tell how much Coach K's several end-of-game moves and not-moves were due to sending a message. Jim's proximity and credibility clear things up for me on those several points.

    I do have a question for Jim and for anyone else who wants to opine: Was there no one else on the bench who had both fight and poise that could have been used more throughout the game, and at the end? Was there not one player who got the message about having to fight, with poise, before or during the game? J Robinson, for example?

  16. #316
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by hustleplays View Post
    I really appreciate this post. I know I wasn't the only fan who thought that Duke looked like they weren't fighting, and who were overconfident, entitled, whatever. [Toward the end, I was beginning to root for SFA because I greatly admired their toughness and team play, I like underdogs, and I hated to think that our guys might think they they truly earned a win if they had eked out a 1 or 2 point win.] I couldn't tell how much Coach K's several end-of-game moves and not-moves were due to sending a message. Jim's proximity and credibility clear things up for me on those several points.

    I do have a question for Jim and for anyone else who wants to opine: Was there no one else on the bench who had both fight and poise that could have been used more throughout the game, and at the end? Was there not one player who got the message about having to fight, with poise, before or during the game? J Robinson, for example?
    The longer you let an underdog hang around, the more confidence they gain.

    Avoiding an upset 101.

    The deeper the second half got with the outcome still in doubt, the more confidence the underdog got, the more confidence the favorite lost. You could see it in body language, facial expression, Duke's almost total lack of communication down the stretch. Nobody talked.

    Telling example. Stanley hit a three to put Duke up 77-75, with 2:18 left.

    SFA called a timeout.

    Duke went zone for one of the few times in the game, maybe the only time. The staff told the team they had to monitor Kachelries, their best 3-point shooter, a one-trick pony to be honest.

    So, SFA works the ball around a couple of times and Kacheleries hits a wide-open baseline 3.

    Basically Duke's young players were in a brain fog and the coaches couldn't get underneath it.

    One of several times down the stretch when a Duke stop might have locked it up.

    But no stop.

    Duke expected to get a big early lead and cruise on in from there.

    Duke got a big early lead but SFA did not cooperate.

    K almost predicted it a few games back, perhaps the Ga. State post-game. He basically said if you are going to hang your hat around the idea that you always play hard, then you had better play hard all the time. Because, if you don't your opponents start thinking "these guys aren't who we thought they were" and respond accordingly.

    And slapping the floor on defense does not have magical properties. If you can't wall the walk, it's actually counter productive.

  17. #317
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    The longer you let an underdog hang around, the more confidence they gain.

    Avoiding an upset 101.

    The deeper the second half got with the outcome still in doubt, the more confidence the underdog got, the more confidence the favorite lost. You could see it in body language, facial expression, Duke's almost total lack of communication down the stretch. Nobody talked.

    Telling example. Stanley hit a three to put Duke up 77-75, with 2:18 left.

    SFA called a timeout.

    Duke went zone for one of the few times in the game, maybe the only time. The staff told the team they had to monitor Kachelries, their best 3-point shooter, a one-trick pony to be honest.

    So, SFA works the ball around a couple of times and Kacheleries hits a wide-open baseline 3.

    Basically Duke's young players were in a brain fog and the coaches couldn't get underneath it.

    One of several times down the stretch when a Duke stop might have locked it up.

    But no stop.

    Duke expected to get a big early lead and cruise on in from there.

    Duke got a big early lead but SFA did not cooperate.

    K almost predicted it a few games back, perhaps the Ga. State post-game. He basically said if you are going to hang your hat around the idea that you always play hard, then you had better play hard all the time. Because, if you don't your opponents start thinking "these guys aren't who we thought they were" and respond accordingly.

    And slapping the floor on defense does not have magical properties. If you can't wall the walk, it's actually counter productive.
    All of that is true, and universal as well as applicable to this game. One thing that magnified all of this is that Duke got that 33-18 lead or whatever it was...which just reinforced Duke players thinking this was going to be easy. Then when SFA drew more or less even, they probably had even more confidence than they would have without rallying. They were the more confident team down the stretch, no doubt.

  18. #318
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    although i dig what you're getting at, i think you're losing sight of something, namely that no one is saying that Javin is or was ever thought to be the focus of the offense, ie.,.

    Not losing sight of that at all...but there's "not being the focus" and then there's being surrounded by generational talents. For the last two years, he's had the latter luxury. This year he's merely the former. There is a significant difference in those two scenarios.

    I would also mention that as a top 40 recruit, I doubt we were looking at him as a role player coming in. Perhaps you were, but that's not what I think of for the guy who was (I believe) ranked 35 in the nation.

  19. #319
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    Thomasville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Once again you have neglected to read the post you are criticizing and are arguing with something that wasn’t said. It’s somewhat tiresome, actually.
    Basically, we lost the game because of the number of either weakly contested or uncontested inside shots. There were other reasons for sure, but in my estimation this was the most glaring problem. And I know K had to have been pointing it out to them, they were just not listening for some reason...

  20. #320
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    I like what you’ve written here except for wondering if Bolden would have started over Carey had he not left Duke. From what I’ve seen of Carey thus far, Bolden is not even close.
    Bolden improved substantially over 3-years despite injuries but he was a surprisingly weak rebounder last year. Carey’s defense isn’t horrible while his scoring and rebounding are both very good so I don’t think Bolden would play as many MPG this year than last year.

    We’re only a few games in to the season. I predict Jav is going to come up big for Duke in some games this year. If he’s playing as well by the end of this year as last year, the criticism will seem bit overboard.

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