2020 Presidential Election

[Rich]

That person's artistic talent is no baloney!

I WONDER if they get a lot of SPAM!

[Indoor66]

New A+ rated poll out today showing Biden up 16 points (54-38) on Trump. As Madeline Kahn would say, "Woof". That's a tough hill to climb. Plus Biden with a solid primary lead in Texas, an important Super Tuesday state.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Is that the same group that did the NC polling?

[dudog84]

Is that the same group that did the NC polling?

Do you have a point? Perhaps a link to a poll? Why should I do your research for you?

[JasonEvans]

New CNN/SSRS poll with a really interesting result I want to talk about...

(9/5-9) How Trump Is Handling His Job as President:

Approve 39%
Disapprove 55%

(9/5-9) Does Donald Trump Deserve Re-election?

Yes 36%
No 60%

I find it interesting that 5% of the population who do not disapprove of Trump's performance as President think he should not be re-elected. Almost 10% of the people who do approve of his job think he does not deserve re-election (3% of the 39% who approve of him). This says to me that there are folks who like the tax cuts or his conservative judges or his hawkish foreign policy or something like that but they think other things make him undeserving of re-election.

Though this erosion is not huge, it could be quite significant in what will be (at best) a very close election. It may be that we are seeing the impact of all the turnover in the White House; rampant tweeting; controversy with our allies; embracing of our enemies; attacks on the media; allegedly racist comments; and so on wear on some people who would otherwise embrace Trump from a purely policy standpoint. It suggests that he has more to do than the usual President in terms of convincing the nation he deserves another 4 years. It suggests that even if his policy record (which would include the economy) is strong, he may face more questions and more opposition than other president's seeking re-election.

-Jason "I know many may find the above obvious, but seeing it in actual numbers just made me think about it even more" Evans

[Jeffrey]

New A+ rated poll out today showing Biden up 16 points (54-38) on Trump. As Madeline Kahn would say, "Woof". That's a tough hill to climb. Plus Biden with a solid primary lead in Texas, an important Super Tuesday state.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

IMO, it should be obvious which candidate the Dems should run. However, they ran HRC last time and history repeats.

[OldPhiKap]

It may be that we are seeing the impact of all the relentless drama wear on some people who would otherwise embrace Trump from a purely policy standpoint.

FIFY, as the kids say. I think a significant number of otherwise available voters are just flat worn-out.

I know plenty of Republicans that still support the President and will vote for him again. To a man and woman, though, they wish he would just stop damn tweeting and do his job. It is what helped get him elected, and in the end it may be what helps usher him out.

[Jeffrey]

To a man and woman, though, they wish he would just stop damn tweeting and do his job.

OTOH, properly played, tweeting may be part of the POTUS's game plan of the future.

[Acymetric]

New CNN/SSRS poll with a really interesting result I want to talk about...

(9/5-9) How Trump Is Handling His Job as President:

Approve 39%
Disapprove 55%

(9/5-9) Does Donald Trump Deserve Re-election?

Yes 36%
No 60%

I find it interesting that 5% of the population who do not disapprove of Trump's performance as President think he should not be re-elected. Almost 10% of the people who do approve of his job think he does not deserve re-election (3% of the 39% who approve of him). This says to me that there are folks who like the tax cuts or his conservative judges or his hawkish foreign policy or something like that but they think other things make him undeserving of re-election.

Though this erosion is not huge, it could be quite significant in what will be (at best) a very close election. It may be that we are seeing the impact of all the turnover in the White House; rampant tweeting; controversy with our allies; embracing of our enemies; attacks on the media; allegedly racist comments; and so on wear on some people who would otherwise embrace Trump from a purely policy standpoint. It suggests that he has more to do than the usual President in terms of convincing the nation he deserves another 4 years. It suggests that even if his policy record (which would include the economy) is strong, he may face more questions and more opposition than other president's seeking re-election.

-Jason "I know many may find the above obvious, but seeing it in actual numbers just made me think about it even more" Evans

In today's edition of Problems With Polling Questions, I'll observe that "Does Donald Trump Deserve Re-election?" is not the same as "Would you vote for Donald Trump if the election were tomorrow?" The disparity is interesting, but I'm not going to read too much into that result.

[Wander]

To a man and woman, though, they wish he would just stop damn tweeting and do his job.

Trump began this Sept 11th anniversary by tweeting out ads for his re-election for an unconstitutional third term in 2024. File this under "things that would have single-handedly prevented Obama or Bush from winning re-election but will have absolutely zero electoral effect here."

[throatybeard]

Obama loathes Trump. Trump's presidency has been one non-stop personal attack at everything Obama stands for. If asked, he will support Trump's opponent in any way possible. If it is Sanders, he will support Sanders, though will do so in a way where he does not necessarily support all of Sanders' policies, just that Sanders is more fit to run country than Trump, because in Obama's mind, a ham sandwich is more fit to run the country than Trump.

You appear to be talking about the general election. I'm talking about the D primaries.

Obama getting on Bernie's wagon after Bernie becomes the nominee is a far different proposition than Obama endorsing the one non-Democrat in the D primaries. The latter
is
not
hap
pen
ing.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

IMO, it should be obvious which candidate the Dems should run. However, they ran HRC last time and history repeats.

Madeline Kahn?

[OldPhiKap]

OTOH, properly played, tweeting may be part of the POTUS's game plan of the future.

Do you think his tweets have been net positive? My local feedback is quite negative but I am interested in broader takes obviously.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

You appear to be talking about the general election. I'm talking about the D primaries.

Obama getting on Bernie's wagon after Bernie becomes the nominee is a far different proposition than Obama endorsing the one non-Democrat in the D primaries. The latter
is
not
hap
pen
ing.

I think we all agreed that it is highly unlikely he will endorse anyone in the primaries - you are arguing with yourself here.

[PackMan97]

In today's edition of Problems With Polling Questions, I'll observe that "Does Donald Trump Deserve Re-election?" is not the same as "Would you vote for Donald Trump if the election were tomorrow?" The disparity is interesting, but I'm not going to read too much into that result.

Right, it's entirely plausible that someone can feel President Trump does not deserve re-election, and yet feel that whatever candidate the Democrats put forward deserves election even less. Shades of 2016 all over again.

[sagegrouse]

OTOH, properly played, tweeting may be part of the POTUS's game plan of the future.

Do you think his tweets have been net positive? My local feedback is quite negative but I am interested in broader takes obviously.

I dunno about "net positive." Possibly negative, but to be used much more by future presidents. Moreover, Trump has changed the presidency in other ways. Government has been capable of being paralyzed by some lawyer or other technocrat saying, "I am not sure, but this may not be consistent with the "Administrative Procedures Act." With Trump it's more like, "Yeah, this may be against the law, but what can they do to me before the 2020 election?" Somewhere in between is probably the "sweet spot."

[left_hook_lacey]

Do you think his tweets have been net positive? My local feedback is quite negative but I am interested in broader takes obviously.

It's a mixed bag in my experience. Some are tired of it and wish he would stop, but still support his policies 100% over anything the left brings to the table. They are the voting against the left vs. voting for Trump crowd. Some of them think it's hilarious and love it every time he calls a democrat "America-Hating" or whatever. These are strange times we're living in.

Trump's support of the red flag laws have turned more people against him in my inner circles than anything else. But they have no alternative if that's an issue at the top of their list.

[Jeffrey]

Do you think his tweets have been net positive? My local feedback is quite negative but I am interested in broader takes obviously.

I'm saying Trump may be starting a trend and future POTUS may also tweet. IMO, properly played, tweeting may become a successful part of the POTUS's game plan of the future.

[bundabergdevil]

Right, it's entirely plausible that someone can feel President Trump does not deserve re-election, and yet feel that whatever candidate the Democrats put forward deserves election even less. Shades of 2016 all over again.

It’s really hard for me to imagine any of the Dem candidates generating as much animosity as HRC does/did. Those seeds were sewn and nurtured over the course of 30+ years specifically because many on the right saw HRC as a potential presidential candidate down the line. That’s quite an investment and it paid off perfectly in 2016. Talk about a long game! The only person I’ve seen generate a comparable level of hate in a much shorter period is Trump and there doesn’t seem to be that type of figure running on the Dem side.

[OldPhiKap]

It’s really hard for me to imagine any of the Dem candidates generating as much animosity as HRC does/did. Those seeds were sewn and nurtured over the course of 30+ years specifically because many on the right saw HRC as a potential presidential candidate down the line. That’s quite an investment and it paid off perfectly in 2016. Talk about a long game! The only person I’ve seen generate a comparable level of hate in a much shorter period is Trump and there doesn’t seem to be that type of figure running on the Dem side.

If I was a Democrat, I would be worried about extreme policies more than extreme personality. If the choice is between Trump and someone on the extreme end of the spectrum, I think you would see some number of moderates vote for Trump even if they don't like him. I agree that it would be difficult -- though not impossible -- to drive the Dem's personal favorability rating as low as HRC's was nationally.

(The counter-argument of course is that someone on the extreme end of the spectrum will so energize the base that the turn-out more than compensates. I don't buy that argument but I hear it enough to be a thing).

[PackMan97]

It’s really hard for me to imagine any of the Dem candidates generating as much animosity as HRC does/did. Those seeds were sewn and nurtured over the course of 30+ years specifically because many on the right saw HRC as a potential presidential candidate down the line. That’s quite an investment and it paid off perfectly in 2016. Talk about a long game! The only person I’ve seen generate a comparable level of hate in a much shorter period is Trump and there doesn’t seem to be that type of figure running on the Dem side.

I think in 2020 it won't be as personal as it was with Hillary Clinton. However, given that two of the front runners (Warren and Sanders) are considerably left of HRC, I think much of the dislike will be policy based this time.

I know plenty of folks that do not like Trump, but as they say no matter how evil he may be, he's the lesser of the two evils when put up against some of the Democrats.

I think far too many Democrats are focused on TRUMMMMPPPPPP! That they are ignoring the fact that they still have to get folks to vote for whomever they nominate. It's not a given that being "Not Trump" will win the election.

I thought it would happen in 2016, but was wrong...I will say 2020 is shaping up to a be a year a well financed, well known, independent moderate would really shake things up. Even more so than Perot in 1992. I sense the time is right. Who that might be? I have no idea.