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  1. #1981
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Asheville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    IMO, they can if they go with Biden.

    However, I still believe that would be a much closer race than most believe. Trump will completely see Biden's moves three plays in advance, Biden (and, most of us) will not have a clue what Trump's next move will be.
    I think you're right but Biden is just such a gaffe machine I don't know how he'll be able to stay on level with Trump. Sleepy Joe has already caught on, his perceived issues with personal space and his son's problems aren't going to be helpful.

  2. #1982
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chard View Post
    I think you're right but Biden is just such a gaffe machine I don't know how he'll be able to stay on level with Trump. Sleepy Joe has already caught on, his perceived issues with personal space and his son's problems aren't going to be helpful.
    Joe looked O-L-D last debate.

    This debate, he is right between his two most vocal critics -- Harris and Booker.

    We should know a lot by the end of next week.

  3. #1983
    Quote Originally Posted by Chard View Post
    I think you're right but Biden is just such a gaffe machine I don't know how he'll be able to stay on level with Trump. Sleepy Joe has already caught on, his perceived issues with personal space and his son's problems aren't going to be helpful.
    I agree, it’ll be close, even if Biden gets the nomination. I think Trump is again being underrated. Trump will benefit watching the primaries and learning new ways to attack and hurt Biden. There’s a very good reason most incumbents have won a second term the last 50 years. Trump’s economy is many levels above Carter’s in 1980 and he will play the game better than Bush did in 1992.
       

  4. #1984
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    Feb 2011
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    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    To be fair, that may largely be because there's an unspoken rule that you're allowed to criticize these politicians and state policy opinions as long as they're not one of the serious contenders or your post is "against both sides". Sanford is definitely nowhere near a serious contender, so I think everyone here intuitively senses that making fun of his ridiculous story (allegedly ridiculous?) from a few years ago is in bounds.
    Hes a distraction at best.nikki haley would be a better candidate from my beloved state.at least a serious one.
       

  5. #1985
    IMO, Biden is the "safe" pick for the Dems. much like Hillary was in 2016. He is experienced, a centrist, has credibility with minorities for his ties to Obama, and I think will show a great deal of fight. I'm not as worried about the "gaffe machine" because Trump commits gaffes that would bury any other politician and his supporters don't seem to care. I think that will largely insulate Biden against his likely gaffes, considering Trump is the alternative. Those who get worked up over gaffes weren't likely to vote for the individual in the first place.

    I think the bigger issue for the Dems is the enthusiasm gap, especially with Biden. Will a 70+ year old white candidate motivate young the Dems to work the phones and go to the polls in the same way a 50 year old minority would? Dems tend to do better when their candidate inspires (WJC, Obama) rather than furthers the status quo (Gore, Kerry, HRC). So I think the Dems best bet is to nominate someone who will excite the younger generation and drive them to the polls.

    Baby boomers like Biden, Bernie, and Warren are all 70+ and IMO blunt a very potent line of attack for the Dems they offer young faces and ideas. Harris, Booker, Castro, and Buttigieg probably best fit this mold of a young, fresh candidate that would make Trump look very old in comparison. Harris seems to be the frontrunner of this younger group. I think she is currently best positioned to rebuild the Obama coalition of young voters and unprecedented minority support, although Buttegieg is my personal favorite.
    "There can BE only one."

  6. #1986
    alteran is offline All-American, Honorable Mention
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Unpopular hot take after today: Dems need to move on from Mueller and impeachment, and instead focus on policy arguments.

    Another unpopular hot take reinforced to me today: Every day the Dems spend talking about Trump is exactly what Trump wants and avoids the electoral strong points the Dems seek to press on health care, the costs of education, the environment, social and economic “justice,” and whatever else it is that the Dems seek to advance.

    It’s the economy, stupid.
    There’s a lot of thought people don’t vote based on the economy much anymore.

    The GOP had control of every single branch of the government in 2018 and the economy was red hot.

    Not sure I’d say that worked for them.

    Personally, my money is on making Trump the story. Dems disagree on a lot of things, and are often their own worst enemies. They often don’t show up to vote.

    But put Trump up on the screen, their blood is up, and they’re all screaming about the same thing.

    And make no mistake, no matter what the strategy is, this election is about Trump.
       

  7. #1987
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I agree, it’ll be close, even if Biden gets the nomination. I think Trump is again being underrated. Trump will benefit watching the primaries and learning new ways to attack and hurt Biden. There’s a very good reason most incumbents have won a second term the last 50 years. Trump’s economy is many levels above Carter’s in 1980 and he will play the game better than Bush did in 1992.
    There’s sort of two ways to look at this. One is the scenario you describe. The other is to say that Trump is historically unpopular despite a strong economy, lost the popular by 3 million despite running against another historically unpopular candidate (HRC), and won 3 states by fewer people than it takes to fill a NFL stadium. That is, Trump is being over-estimated because a strong economy artificially inflates his weak support.

    I have no idea which way it will go but it was so close and odd in 2016 that I’m pretty gun shy about predictions. I do believe demographic shifts since 2016 favor Dems but not in the most important states necessarily.
       

  8. #1988
    alteran is offline All-American, Honorable Mention
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I remember when having policies was a good thing.
    If anyone can find a candidate in American history with more policies than Warren, I will eat my shoes. Gladly.
       

  9. #1989
    alteran is offline All-American, Honorable Mention
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    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    On the Democratic side at least. 2016 certainly defied this convention for Republicans and I don’t expect a center tack for Trump again. Not to get ahead of ourselves but I’m very curious about 2024 for the red team to see if Trump was an aberration or the new normal...
    It’s the new normal. The precedents set during this administration and the 2016 election will be picked up, to varying degrees, by both parties.

    It feels like end stage democracy to me.
       

  10. #1990
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    Quote Originally Posted by wavedukefan70s View Post
    Hes a distraction at best.nikki haley would be a better candidate from my beloved state.at least a serious one.
    She’s got time. No matter what happens in 2020, I expect her to be a strong candidate in 2024.
       

  11. #1991
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by Chard View Post
    OldPhiKap hit the nail on the head several times. The Democrats can't run on far left policies and win in the general. That is why Biden is in the lead. Trump isn't going to be defeated by trying to make everything he does "racist." They have to make a strong case that their policies can benefit more voters than Trump's policies in about 5 key states. Being nasty or projecting isn't going to do it. Trump is already in the mud and has been since 2015ish. It is where the game was being played. That is part of why he's POTUS.
    FIFY, and I can't repeat this enough, this entire election will be decided by people in a handful of states. Neither Trump's nor the Dem's policies, actions, beahviors, etc. matter in about 45 states.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  12. #1992
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    IMO, if those policies are their main priority, then they should be open and honest about their intent. IMO, Americans should know where the candidates truly stand and then vote accordingly.
    Amen to this! I've always (naively) thought that, at a very minimum the candidates should tell us what they believe in and want to accomplish IF they are elected AND how they will accomplish those goals, IF they do get in office.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Yesterday was a disaster for both parties. It was transparent political theater rather than anything productive. I was wildly disappointed.
    Yea, I'm not sure either party came out smelling like roses after yesterday's debacle BUT I especially and truly felt sorry for Bob Mueller (Robert Swann Mueller, III - what a name!). He obviously has lost his fastball, curveball and change-up (to use a baseball analogy). One commentator said afterwards he thought it was "elder abuse" to have him testify before Congress.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I agree, it’ll be close, even if Biden gets the nomination. I think Trump is again being underrated. Trump will benefit watching the primaries and learning new ways to attack and hurt Biden. There’s a very good reason most incumbents have won a second term the last 50 years. Trump’s economy is many levels above Carter’s in 1980 and he will play the game better than Bush did in 1992.
    I may eat these words in 16 months or so, but I'm predicting (NOW) that DT will win the election easily (with the following two assumptions - the economy (and the stock market) continue to be strong AND he does not do something incredibly stupid - i.e., start lobbing nuclear weapons into North Korea, etc). I still think the Dems' (whomever they nominate) best hope is if the economy begins to tank in the next year or so and people lose faith in what DT and Republicans in Congress have done (see George H.W. Bush in 1992!). Given the low unemployment numbers, the strong stock market and continued GDP growth, I just don't see people voting to change the captain of the ship (and I readily understand that many people in the country DETEST Donald Trump). Again, I wouldn't bet my life savings on this outcome but I'd bet a fair amount of money.

  13. #1993
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    FIFY, and I can't repeat this enough, this entire election will be decided by people in a handful of states. Neither Trump's nor the Dem's policies, actions, beahviors, etc. matter in about 45 states.
    They matter in other states, too, because the identity of the swing states constantly shifts. Trump famously surprised by cracking the blue wall (wiki) in 2016, for example. Nobody was talking about Wisconsin being a swing state prior to that.

    I think it's inevitable that Texas turns blue. It probably won't happen for a few more cycles, but shoot, who knows? Maybe it happens much sooner than people expect, and R Texans who don't think their votes matter would help pave the way.

    Watch for Minnesota possibly going red for the first time in forever, too, in 2020.

    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    She’s got time. No matter what happens in 2020, I expect her to be a strong candidate in 2024.
    She'll need Trump to lose next year because she's not a nationalist-populist. If Trump wins again, almost all 2024 R candidates will be nationalist-populists, imo.

  14. #1994
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I think it's inevitable that Texas turns blue. It probably won't happen for a few more cycles, but shoot, who knows? Maybe it happens much sooner than people expect, and R Texans who don't think their votes matter would help pave the way.
    If Texas turns blue, do we even need to bother with the general election?

  15. #1995
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    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    If Texas turns blue, do we even need to bother with the general election?
    If all else stays the same, then no. But lots will change in the coming years. Like most of the rest of the world the US will continue to urbanize which, because of our government system, may mean more of 2000 and 2016, not less. Most of that urbanization is occurring in already blue states so...representation in the senate may continue to be imbalanced relative to population majority preference. Our founding fathers were trying to solve a hell of a pickle with the rep/senate approach...I appreciate their genius more and more.
       

  16. #1996
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    ... I'm predicting (NOW) that DT will win the election easily ...
    I saw my very first 2020 campaign signage yesterday. It was a very large, professional-looking banner for Trump touting "Keep America Great" (I didn't realize that was his slogan - seriously) -- hanging on a very nice wrought iron fence in a very nice (and heavily Democratic) neighborhood I happened to be traveling through. Before that sign, I had not seen even a bumper sticker for anyone to date.

  17. #1997
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    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    I saw my very first 2020 campaign signage yesterday. It was a very large, professional-looking banner for Trump touting "Keep America Great" (I didn't realize that was his slogan - seriously) -- hanging on a very nice wrought iron fence in a very nice (and heavily Democratic) neighborhood I happened to be traveling through. Before that sign, I had not seen even a bumper sticker for anyone to date.
    In past years, a poster provided his/her signage index based on the number of signs in his area. I’m in PA, in a vital part of an already vital state, and I’ve seen 1 Trump, 1 Warren, and 1 Harris sign so far. I’m close enough to DE to know where Jill gets her crab cakes so I SHOULD be seeing nothing but Biden...FWIW.
       

  18. #1998
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    In past years, a poster provided his/her signage index based on the number of signs in his area. I’m in PA, in a vital part of an already vital state, and I’ve seen 1 Trump, 1 Warren, and 1 Harris sign so far. I’m close enough to DE to know where Jill gets her crab cakes so I SHOULD be seeing nothing but Biden...FWIW.
    My guess is that is far too early to see many neighbors promote a candidate other than Trump. I have no doubt you will see those in abundance through election day, but until the Dems whittle things down to two or three final candidates in the heart of primary season, the blue signs will be less visible.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #1999
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Like most of the rest of the world the US will continue to urbanize which, because of our government system, may mean more of 2000 and 2016, not less. Most of that urbanization is occurring in already blue states so...representation in the senate may continue to be imbalanced relative to population majority preference. Our founding fathers were trying to solve a hell of a pickle with the rep/senate approach...I appreciate their genius more and more.
    Well, while there is some genius in the Senate preventing the tyranny of the majority I really wonder about how it will work if the coasts continue to get more and more populous and people flee the middle. At this moment, it is technically possible for 12% of the population to elect 60% of the senate. It is easy to see how that could become increasingly problematic if the priorities of that 12% (or, more realistically 20-25%) got almost equal federal power as the rest of the nation.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #2000
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    ... I’m close enough to DE to know where Jill gets her crab cakes ...
    I hope the moderators move this post to the Ymm, Crabcakes thread. God, I hate when people stray off topic.

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