2020 Presidential Election

[PackMan97]

Trump looks to be 99.9999999999% sure of getting his nomination

So you are saying there is a chance? There is a long time before the primaries. We've got the trade snarls to deal with. The Persian Gulf heating up (or did it never cool down). Federal deficits running around $1 trillion a year. This is the longest economic expansion in the post WW2 era, can it keep going. There is plenty out there to trip up Trump without even getting into the political attacks on Trump (Russia, tax returns, Russia and Russia).

He has former Massachusetts Governor, William Weld already declared in the race. I wonder if anyone else will join in the opposition.

[Jeffrey]

So you are saying there is a chance? There is a long time before the primaries. We've got the trade snarls to deal with. The Persian Gulf heating up (or did it never cool down). Federal deficits running around $1 trillion a year. This is the longest economic expansion in the post WW2 era, can it keep going. There is plenty out there to trip up Trump without even getting into the political attacks on Trump (Russia, tax returns, Russia and Russia).

He has former Massachusetts Governor, William Weld already declared in the race. I wonder if anyone else will join in the opposition.

What are today's equity and fixed income markets telling you? What did the Fed tell you yesterday?

[luvdahops]

Not sure, although history suggests that he may.
1. He has a lot of folks gunning for him right now, including it seems most of MSNBC.
2. He has given tons of speeches and taken tons of votes since the 1970's; not all of them have aged well.
3. Like HRC, it is really hard for him to argue that he is going to bring change to Washington (always a popular theme) when he has been there forever.
4. This is his third run for the White House IIRC. If he didn't have "it" before, has enough changed to make up for it?

As Jason said, I think we'll know a bit more by next Friday.



I think the Democrats have a sizeable chance of shooting themselves in the foot by eliminating candidates who are not "woke" enough. Without arguing the merits, look at the blowback Joe is getting on the left for his comment in relation to the pass AOC is getting from most of the left for what some may consider to be less defensible comments.

I agree on all the above. Biden is also quite gaffe-prone, and does not appear to think on his feet or speak extemporaneously well at all. He usually does fine when fully scripted and otherwise prepared, but it seems quite unrealistic to expect to that to always - or even frequently - be the case in the modern world of campaigns and news cycles.

And I think the Democrats have a golden opportunity in 2020 if they can craft a positive, inclusive message around expanding opportunity and security in a way that reflects modern economic reality, and avoid retrenching to some predictable combination of class warfare, identity politics, green extremism and demonization of Trump. But it's not clear to me that their field of Presidential contenders can produce someone capable of exploiting this opportunity, especially if, as Jason notes, the hard Left carries outsized influence over the primary process.

[budwom]

I agree on all the above. Biden is also quite gaffe-prone, and does not appear to think on his feet or speak extemporaneously well at all. He usually does fine when fully scripted and otherwise prepared, but it seems quite unrealistic to expect to that to always - or even frequently - be the case in the modern world of campaigns and news cycles.

And I think the Democrats have a golden opportunity in 2020 if they can craft a positive, inclusive message around expanding opportunity and security in a way that reflects modern economic reality, and avoid retrenching to some predictable combination of class warfare, identity politics, green extremism and demonization of Trump. But it's not clear to me that their field of Presidential contenders can produce someone capable of exploiting this opportunity, especially if, as Jason notes, the hard Left carries outsized influence over the primary process.

Evidently Joe's aides told him not to talk about his work with the segregationist senators, but he couldn't help himself...I keep recommending they get him one of those shock collars used for dogs, but they aren't listening. I think you can order one in "button down white," which would hardly show up on TV.

[Jeffrey]

Evidently Joe's aides told him not to talk about his work with the segregationist senators, but he couldn't help himself...I keep recommending they get him one of those shock collars used for dogs, but they aren't listening. I think you can order one in "button down white," which would hardly show up on TV.

Wasn't Biden clear that he did not like them or their opinions? I thought Biden's message was if the D's only see the R's as enemies, and vice versa, then little will ever be accomplished in Washington? IMO, that makes sense and basically describes most of today's politicians. For example, when it was rather obvious HRC was getting the nomination, why didn't Bernie get out of the way?

[dudog84]

I don't know about the rest of you, but I've finally figured out how to get my long overdue Medal of Freedom. Y'all may not hear from me for a while, I have to get busy writing, there may not be much time left.

[PackMan97]

Wasn't Biden clear that he did not like them or their opinions? I thought Biden's message was if the D's only see the R's as enemies, and vice versa, then little will ever be accomplished in Washington? IMO, that makes sense and basically describes most of today's politicians.

A great article on this details the friendship between Bono (U2) and NC's own Jesse Helms.

https://www.collaborativeway.com/lis...eading-change/

It's a great read and illustrates the difference just talking and listening can make in the world.

[JasonEvans]

We are not going to have a debate about immigration and the criminal history (or lack thereof) of the migrants trying to get across the U.S-Mexico border. It is clearly a partisan issue.

Several posts on the topic have been deleted.

[budwom]

Wasn't Biden clear that he did not like them or their opinions? I thought Biden's message was if the D's only see the R's as enemies, and vice versa, then little will ever be accomplished in Washington? IMO, that makes sense and basically describes most of today's politicians. For example, when it was rather obvious HRC was getting the nomination, why didn't Bernie get out of the way?

yeah, he was clear, but there's a dustup nonetheless...the only point being that his guys gave him stuff to avoid and he didn't...which is what he does...but I share the opinion that his position had merit.

[Jeffrey]

A great article on this details the friendship between Bono (U2) and NC's own Jesse Helms.

https://www.collaborativeway.com/lis...eading-change/

It's a great read and illustrates the difference just talking and listening can make in the world.

Awesome, thanks!

Searchin' for light in the darkness of insanity
I ask myself
Is all hope lost?
Is there only pain and hatred, and misery?
And each time I feel like this inside
There's one thing I wanna know
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding?
What's so funny 'bout peace love and understanding?

[Nick]

They're hitting Biden on the busing issue again.

I figure there's more where that came from, but who knows. The busing issue was quite contentious in DE back in the day (iirc to this day the state has one of the nation's largest private school enrollment percentages) and Biden was on what is now considered to be the wrong side.

[bundabergdevil]

This is one of the first roll outs I've seen from the 2020 Trump election team to gain inroads in voting blocs outside his base. This one targets Latino voters. The most important data nugget in the article is that Latinos are poised to become the largest minority voting bloc in 2020, surpassing African Americans for the first time. This has been long predicted but appears to be finally coming to fruition.

The article talks a bit about the campaign's likely strategy with Latinos. The thrust is unemployment rates but also leverages the administration's tough stances on Cuba (anyone else lose a trip down payment on the recent Cuba restrictions, by the way?), Venezuela, and immigration. The article talks a little bit about segmentation in the Latino voting bloc and how Trump hopes to make inroads --- for example, linking Democratic candidates to socialism may help him with the Cuban diaspora. It also notes challenges --- for example, fear of deportation and police/state intimidation has spiked among LEGAL Latino immigrants during this administration.

Meanwhile Latino Democratic leaders are sounding the alarm that the party's candidates may be taking this community for granted and not working toward early mobilization.

Somewhat related to the maneuvering in relation to this community --- a University of Texas poll is getting media attention showing a number of the Democratic candidates tied or close to Trump in Texas. The changing demographics in the state are offered as one potential factor. As a born and bred Texan, I'l believe it when I see it but Joe Biden says its one of the states he'll flip, along with Georgia and South Carolina.


Note: This post covered a couple of hot button issues that mods have, well, moderated but hopefully it did so in an appropriate way, consistent with the thread's intent.

[El_Diablo]

New York magazine’s cover story is an account by columnist E. Jean Carroll of being sexually assaulted by Donald Trump:

https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donal...deous-men.html

Carroll is now at least the 22nd woman to step forward on the record with an account of sexual misconduct by Trump.

[CameronBornAndBred]

New York magazine’s cover story is an account by columnist E. Jean Carroll of being sexually assaulted by Donald Trump:

https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donal...deous-men.html

Carroll is now at least the 22nd woman to step forward on the record with an account of sexual misconduct by Trump.

At this point in time, I think it is a fair assumption to make that such stories, regardless of their validity, won't make a difference in the election.

[JasonEvans]

New York magazine’s cover story is an account by columnist E. Jean Carroll of being sexually assaulted by Donald Trump:

https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donal...deous-men.html

Carroll is now at least the 22nd woman to step forward on the record with an account of sexual misconduct by Trump.

I was tempted to just delete this post, but would rather leave it up so it can serve as a lesson for other in this thread.

The subject of Donald Trump's alleged sexual misconduct is not germane to this thread unless it is directly tied to his electoral chances. The linked article above does not delve into the topic of how Trump's conduct in this arena impacts voters.

As a reminder, we do not discuss or debate issues here... we talk about the horserace. Please adhere to this rule if you want to avoid an infraction.

[El_Diablo]

I was tempted to just delete this post, but would rather leave it up so it can serve as a lesson for other in this thread.

The subject of Donald Trump's alleged sexual misconduct is not germane to this thread unless it is directly tied to his electoral chances. The linked article above does not delve into the topic of how Trump's conduct in this arena impacts voters.

As a reminder, we do not discuss or debate issues here... we talk about the horserace. Please adhere to this rule if you want to avoid an infraction.

Sorry, I saw a story about it on CNN and linked to the source itself at New York magazine. I thought noting a development that is being covered by the mainstream media was fair game, but please delete it if this particular topic is out of bounds. Again, my apologies.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was tempted to just delete this post, but would rather leave it up so it can serve as a lesson for other in this thread.

The subject of Donald Trump's alleged sexual misconduct is not germane to this thread unless it is directly tied to his electoral chances. The linked article above does not delve into the topic of how Trump's conduct in this arena impacts voters.

As a reminder, we do not discuss or debate issues here... we talk about the horserace. Please adhere to this rule if you want to avoid an infraction.

Amazingly, yes, a Trump rape accusation is unlikely to move the needle.

[mattman91]

Amazingly, yes, a Trump rape accusation is unlikely to move the needle.

Anyone can allege anything.

[Wander]

Amazingly, yes, a Trump rape accusation is unlikely to move the needle.

This is key. Last election, there was video of Trump bragging about his ability to commit sexual assault and polling showed that it had very little effect on Republican voters. Here's a link to an article describing a CBS poll that shows 90%+ of Trump supporters in Ohio and Pennsylvania didn't change their view of him shortly after the tape broke to the public. So, I highly doubt this allegation will have any meaningful effect on this race.

[mattman91]

This is key. Last election, there was video of Trump bragging about his ability to commit sexual assault and polling showed that it had very little effect on Republican voters. Here's a link to an article describing a CBS poll that shows 90%+ of Trump supporters in Ohio and Pennsylvania didn't change their view of him shortly after the tape broke to the public. So, I highly doubt this allegation will have any meaningful effect on this race.

"Let".