2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[lotusland]

I have no doubt that Cam will not be back next. And perhaps he will be drafted top 10 simply because teams are willing to take a flyer on what looks like a perfect NBA physique. Based on having watched him play numerous games this year, I do not see someone who will succeed at the next level. His shot is OK but not great. His handle is average. He does not appear to have much fire. He has been underwhelming.

To be clear, I hope he succeeds. I think he is a great kid. And I am thrilled he has come to Duke. I just don’t see at this stage a great player.

What people don’t say is that a big reason why some kids leave early is to avoid confirmation that they are not that good. If Cam came back next year and crushed it, it would validate him and make him a top three pick. But if he comes back next year and repeats his performance this year, it might validate that he is not all that great. And drafting him on “potential“ would be less applicable. So he might fall substantially. James Michael McAdoo might be a fair comparison.

Anyhow, like many others I believe that cam’s performance in the tournament will make the difference between success and failure. If he can turn it on and be a viable third scorer, it will make a huge difference.

Cam seems to have good ball handling skills for a 6’8 guy. His problem seemingly is that he believes he’s a great ball handler. Most of his TOs are just old fashioned carelessness. Some of his passes indicate that he doesn’t have great court awareness. On the whole he’d be better by trying to do less with the ball.

[fgb]

Cam seems to have good ball handling skills for a 6’8 guy. His problem seemingly is that he believes he’s a great ball handler. Most of his TOs are just old fashioned carelessness. Some of his passes indicate that he doesn’t have great court awareness. On the whole he’d be better by trying to do less with the ball.

it seems like so much of these kids coming into their own has to do with a sort of perspective reset. they've spent their whole lives being the best player by far on their school teams, and suddenly their put on an entire roster of people who were that same thing. the spotlight for them has always shone on their excellence; this is maybe the first time that they've had to grow an awareness of their own limitations. it happens at different rates for different players. it happened pretty quickly for tre, it seems, and it took a little longer for rj (in a strange way, i've wondered if the lights out shooting he displayed in the game at uva might have been a sort of a setback for him in this sense). cam maybe just hasn't clicked in this way yet. i do think, once he becomes aware of what he can't do well, he'll blossom. unfortunately that's not likely to happen in a duke uniform, just given where we are in the season, but i'm still hopeful.

of course none of this applies to zion. nothing does.

[wsb3]

I have no doubt that Cam will not be back next. And perhaps he will be drafted top 10 simply because teams are willing to take a flyer on what looks like a perfect NBA physique. Based on having watched him play numerous games this year, I do not see someone who will succeed at the next level. His shot is OK but not great. His handle is average. He does not appear to have much fire. He has been underwhelming.

To be clear, I hope he succeeds. I think he is a great kid. And I am thrilled he has come to Duke. I just don’t see at this stage a great player.

What people don’t say is that a big reason why some kids leave early is to avoid confirmation that they are not that good. If Cam came back next year and crushed it, it would validate him and make him a top three pick. But if he comes back next year and repeats his performance this year, it might validate that he is not all that great. And drafting him on “potential“ would be less applicable. So he might fall substantially. James Michael McAdoo might be a fair comparison.

Anyhow, like many others I believe that cam’s performance in the tournament will make the difference between success and failure. If he can turn it on and be a viable third scorer, it will make a huge difference.

Good Post. Drafting on potential seems to be all the NBA is interested in. I don't quite understand. I would prefer to give millions to someone I could view for more than one season and get a more mature player/person in the process. But this is how the game is played.And I totally get it that if you are a sure fire first round pick to take the money and run.

[frb]

any other names popping up for 2019?

We've heard about Watford, Tristan Enaruna and potential reclass J Brakefield, Walker Kessler and RJ Hampton.

And of course M Hurt.

Tre Jones returning would be one the equivalent of signing a 5 star PG. maybe he stays. He really needs to work on his jump shot.

[El_Diablo]

I do not buy into the theory that Roy convinces kids to stay longer - anymore than I bought into that theory when it was allegedly being done by K. Roy has had kids stay longer because they have not met expectations - kind of like Bolden. Think Mcadoo and Little. Even Barnes fell into this camp. There is no doubt that Bolden would have happily left If the nba was calling.

It was a little easier for Roy to convince kids to stay when they were getting free cars and other benefits.

[jimsumner]

any other names popping up for 2019?

We've heard about Watford, Tristan Enaruna and potential reclass J Brakefield, Walker Kessler and RJ Hampton.

And of course M Hurt.

Tre Jones returning would be one the equivalent of signing a 5 star PG. maybe he stays. He really needs to work on his jump shot.

Duke is looking at Cassius Stanley, a 6-5 combo guard from out west.

[MarkD83]

Good Post. Drafting on potential seems to be all the NBA is interested in. I don't quite understand. I would prefer to give millions to someone I could view for more than one season and get a more mature player/person in the process. But this is how the game is played.And I totally get it that if you are a sure fire first round pick to take the money and run.

Drafting on potential may be the result of all of the "one and done" drafts over the past 7-8 years. The NBA will hold a draft every year and take 60 players. There may be 5-10 that can play right away and that leaves 50+ players who the NBA has to draft on potential.

[sagegrouse]

it seems like so much of these kids coming into their own has to do with a sort of perspective reset. they've spent their whole lives being the best player by far on their school teams, and suddenly their put on an entire roster of people who were that same thing. the spotlight for them has always shone on their excellence; this is maybe the first time that they've had to grow an awareness of their own limitations. it happens at different rates for different players. it happened pretty quickly for tre, it seems, and it took a little longer for rj (in a strange way, i've wondered if the lights out shooting he displayed in the game at uva might have been a sort of a setback for him in this sense). cam maybe just hasn't clicked in this way yet. i do think, once he becomes aware of what he can't do well, he'll blossom. unfortunately that's not likely to happen in a duke uniform, just given where we are in the season, but i'm still hopeful.

of course none of this applies to zion. nothing does.

(a) I am pushing back against criticism against Cam Reddish because we would be much more patient -- and appreciate his evident talents -- if he were a multi-year player who would be a star next year (or the year after). Now it's deliver immediately.

(b) Then we compare him with the other freshmen, which is grossly unfair. RJ Barrett led the Canadian Under 19 team to a FIBA championship, including a huge win over the USA, when he was 17 -- he was MVP of the tournament. RJ is not perfect but mature well beyond his years. Zion is one-of-a-kind, with which everyone agrees. "Never before in college basketball has there been a player... etc., etc." Now Tre is "back" (there was a freshman wall he hit), and he is a prodigy. IMHO, where the H got swept away with the confetti at the Spectrum, Cam is a really good college freshman.

I look forward to some great games from Cam in the tournament.

[English]

Good Post. Drafting on potential seems to be all the NBA is interested in. I don't quite understand. I would prefer to give millions to someone I could view for more than one season and get a more mature player/person in the process. But this is how the game is played.And I totally get it that if you are a sure fire first round pick to take the money and run.

It's commonly accepted that the typical NBA career peak is around the mid-20s and beyond, when a player's mental understanding of the game has matured to meet his physical peak (but before his body starts to limit him). Now, sure, you can go ahead and draft a kid coming out who's already there and you've seen what he can do in college. Go and draft Tyler Hansblah or Frank Kaminsky or Nigel Hayes or Doug McDermott--all very successful, productive college players. The NBA teams would rather draft a guy who has the potential to far exceed that production, who they can mold to excel in the NBA game mentally and physically. It almost always takes a couple of seasons in the NBA for a player to figure it out, so if he's already coming out at 20-22yo, his productive lifespan in the league is shorter. These NBA scouts and analysts literally talk in months of a player's potential (e.g., JJJ is 6mo younger than MBIII, who is 18mo younger than Miles Bridges...I made that, but that's basically how they view potential).

Make no mistake, basketball isn't the same game at the college level as it is or is becoming in the NBA. It's a myth that players need to develop and prove it in college or they're doomed to failure in the pros. That narrative is created by college basketball fans to convince themselves why the Cam Reddish's of the game should stay additional years. Cam Reddish and Nassir Little are almost certain to be lottery picks despite their very clear limitations in their respective games right now. They may or may not develop into rotation guys or All-Stars down the line, but it won't be because they didn't have a sophomore year in the ACC.

[frb]

Duke is looking at Cassius Stanley, a 6-5 combo guard from out west.

is that a recent development? I thought he was UCLA or Kansas

[jimsumner]

is that a recent development? I thought he was UCLA or Kansas

Fairly recent.

[killerleft]

I have no doubt that Cam will not be back next. And perhaps he will be drafted top 10 simply because teams are willing to take a flyer on what looks like a perfect NBA physique. Based on having watched him play numerous games this year, I do not see someone who will succeed at the next level. His shot is OK but not great. His handle is average. He does not appear to have much fire. He has been underwhelming.

To be clear, I hope he succeeds. I think he is a great kid. And I am thrilled he has come to Duke. I just don’t see at this stage a great player.

What people don’t say is that a big reason why some kids leave early is to avoid confirmation that they are not that good. If Cam came back next year and crushed it, it would validate him and make him a top three pick. But if he comes back next year and repeats his performance this year, it might validate that he is not all that great. And drafting him on “potential“ would be less applicable. So he might fall substantially. James Michael McAdoo might be a fair comparison.

Anyhow, like many others I believe that cam’s performance in the tournament will make the difference between success and failure. If he can turn it on and be a viable third scorer, it will make a huge difference.

I disagree with the bolded sentence. Cam has plenty of "fire". You're not paying attention. Everybody has their own way of expressing themselves. Defense at a high level requires "fire". Cam plays very hard all the time. That's probably another thing the scouts are noticing. "Fire" is harder to teach than most things, if in fact it can be taught.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I disagree with the bolded sentence. Cam has plenty of "fire". You're not paying attention. Everybody has their own way of expressing themselves. Defense at a high level requires "fire". Cam plays very hard all the time. That's probably another thing the scouts are noticing. "Fire" is harder to teach than most things, if in fact it can be taught.

Agreed. Coach K is the BEST motivator in college ball. You only need to look at Okafor and Ingram to see that (Duke, not NBA).

And Cam has a ton of fire. His issues are more the consistency of his shot (which will get better as his form is really nice), handle/driving into traffic, and basketball IQ.

Unfortunately, the handle and bball IQ are difficult develop, and I absolutely view him as a "high risk/high reward" draft pick. I wouldn't take him in the top 8, for instance. And if he's the best prospect and we're still in the top 8, I'd trade that pick.

[superdave]

Fairly recent.

https://247sports.com/Player/Cassius-Stanley-92755/

Looks like some of the upheaval at Kansas and Ucla might play to Duke's advantage here.

Also, you cant have too many 6'5'' athletes described as elite.

[Steven43]

Tre Jones returning would be one the equivalent of signing a 5 star PG. maybe he stays. He really needs to work on his jump shot.

Absolutely concur. It looks to me like Tre’s comfortable jumpshot range only extends about 15 feet. On his three-point attempts it looks like it’s more of a push than a legit, smooth jumpshot. It seems that he can barely get the ball to the rim. He might have to consider altering his form. It’s amazing how good he is without having much of a jumpshot. If he could just improve that one area he would be a dynamite pro.

[kAzE]

Agreed. Coach K is the BEST motivator in college ball. You only need to look at Okafor and Ingram to see that (Duke, not NBA).

And Cam has a ton of fire. His issues are more the consistency of his shot (which will get better as his form is really nice), handle/driving into traffic, and basketball IQ.

Unfortunately, the handle and bball IQ are difficult develop, and I absolutely view him as a "high risk/high reward" draft pick. I wouldn't take him in the top 8, for instance. And if he's the best prospect and we're still in the top 8, I'd trade that pick.

I think Cam gets a lot of grief for his inconsistent scoring, but he's been great on defense all season long, and that just gets overlooked. I would take him as high as 4th in this draft, for the record. (Unbelievably, Jonathan Givony currently has him #3 AHEAD of RJ) With some added strength, he has all the tools to be a very good two-way player in the NBA.

If there was one thing I could change about his game offensively, it would be changing up speeds on his drives to the paint. He doesn't have much wiggle in his game right now, and a lot of his straight line drives are resulting in charge calls (fair or not). He needs to utilize his euro step and spin moves more often to avoid contact. Right now, he's just not strong enough to play through contact.

I still think most people are sleeping on his potential, and that he's going to be a star in the NBA once he's been in an NBA strength and conditioning program for a few years. But the problem is, he's not going to realize that potential while he's at Duke, and that's unfortunate.

[CDu]

I think Cam gets a lot of grief for his inconsistent scoring, but he's been great on defense all season long, and that just gets overlooked. I would take him as high as 5th in this draft, for the record. With some added strength, he has all the tools to be a very good scorer in the NBA.

If there was one thing I could change about his game offensively, it be changing up speeds on his drives to the paint. He doesn't have much wiggle in his game right now, and a lot of his straight line drives are resulting in charge calls (fair or not). He needs to utilize his euro step and spin moves more often to avoid contact. Right now, he's just not strong enough to play through contact.

I still think most people are sleeping on his potential, and that he's going to be a star in the NBA once he's been in an NBA strength and conditioning program for a few years.

I am not sold on Reddish. I think he has a quite a few issues to overcome, some achievable and some of real concern:
1a. Guile/savvy: this is related to what you said; he doesn't have any guile to his game; he's a straight-line, one-pace driver at this point
1b. Bball IQ: along with the lack of guile, he doesn't seem to know when to do what. He's constantly making his decisions in advance regardless of the defense, and they are often bad decisions.
2. His dribbling: it's way too sloppy. He has no tightness to his handle. It's loose, it's too high, and it is often careless.
3. His shooting: he has a decent touch in a standstill shot. But he's just REALLY inconsistent in his prep and release on the jumpshot. Good shooters are able to replicate their form over and over again. Reddish doesn't seem to do that; he drifts in all directions, doesn't find himself in the same squared position at release, etc
4. Physical strength: this one he can develop, but he certainly doesn't have the physicality to go into traffic.

I think 3 and 4 can be worked out with time. And if so, he becomes a potentially great 3-and-D player. But 1a, 1b, and 2 are much harder to develop skills. Especially 1a and 1b. He just doesn't seem to have a great feel for the game at all. And that's a concern with regard to him getting to stardom at the NBA level. The stars are either really smart players who can recognize an advantage situation innately and punish it, or they are so physically dominant that they can overcome bball IQ issues.

[53n206]

I disagree with the bolded sentence. Cam has plenty of "fire". You're not paying attention. Everybody has their own way of expressing themselves. Defense at a high level requires "fire". Cam plays very hard all the time. That's probably another thing the scouts are noticing. "Fire" is harder to teach than most things, if in fact it can be taught.

Absolutely agree. Cam has plenty of five.

[Nugget]

I am not sold on Reddish. I think he has a quite a few issues to overcome, some achievable and some of real concern:
1a. Guile/savvy: this is related to what you said; he doesn't have any guile to his game; he's a straight-line, one-pace driver at this point
1b. Bball IQ: along with the lack of guile, he doesn't seem to know when to do what. He's constantly making his decisions in advance regardless of the defense, and they are often bad decisions.
2. His dribbling: it's way too sloppy. He has no tightness to his handle. It's loose, it's too high, and it is often careless.
3. His shooting: he has a decent touch in a standstill shot. But he's just REALLY inconsistent in his prep and release on the jumpshot. Good shooters are able to replicate their form over and over again. Reddish doesn't seem to do that; he drifts in all directions, doesn't find himself in the same squared position at release, etc
4. Physical strength: this one he can develop, but he certainly doesn't have the physicality to go into traffic.

I think 3 and 4 can be worked out with time. And if so, he becomes a potentially great 3-and-D player. But 1a, 1b, and 2 are much harder to develop skills. Especially 1a and 1b. He just doesn't seem to have a great feel for the game at all. And that's a concern with regard to him getting to stardom at the NBA level. The stars are either really smart players who can recognize an advantage situation innately and punish it, or they are so physically dominant that they can overcome bball IQ issues.

I think these are all fair criticisms of Cam's game and I've made many of them myself over the season.

But, I think it is absurd how many arm-chair psychologists on this board (not CDu) jump to attributing the relative weaknesses in Cam's offensive game to some variation of lack of "fire," "aggressiveness," "assertiveness," "intensity" or lack of "confidence." Those all seem to me entirely bogus -- especially since Cam's defense has never suffered -- and miss the point.

Cam's problems on offense may include some lack of focus along with the mechanical/physical factors CDu lists, but that's a much different issue than the other intangibles I think people are mistakenly throwing around as explanatory factors.

[kAzE]

I am not sold on Reddish. I think he has a quite a few issues to overcome, some achievable and some of real concern:
1a. Guile/savvy: this is related to what you said; he doesn't have any guile to his game; he's a straight-line, one-pace driver at this point
1b. Bball IQ: along with the lack of guile, he doesn't seem to know when to do what. He's constantly making his decisions in advance regardless of the defense, and they are often bad decisions.
2. His dribbling: it's way too sloppy. He has no tightness to his handle. It's loose, it's too high, and it is often careless.
3. His shooting: he has a decent touch in a standstill shot. But he's just REALLY inconsistent in his prep and release on the jumpshot. Good shooters are able to replicate their form over and over again. Reddish doesn't seem to do that; he drifts in all directions, doesn't find himself in the same squared position at release, etc
4. Physical strength: this one he can develop, but he certainly doesn't have the physicality to go into traffic.

I think 3 and 4 can be worked out with time. And if so, he becomes a potentially great 3-and-D player. But 1a, 1b, and 2 are much harder to develop skills. Especially 1a and 1b. He just doesn't seem to have a great feel for the game at all. And that's a concern with regard to him getting to stardom at the NBA level. The stars are either really smart players who can recognize an advantage situation innately and punish it, or they are so physically dominant that they can overcome bball IQ issues.

Ehh, I disagree that 1a and 1b can't be developed. Certainly, some players are just more naturally gifted with basketball IQ, but it's not something you either have or don't have, such as Cam's physical gifts: his excellent size, length, and explosiveness, which are all very good.

But my point is: people often talk about the "speed of the game" when adjusting to a new level of competition, and the game "slowing down" for players. That's development of basketball IQ. Learning to read and react to situations. It comes more quickly to some than others, and you're right that Cam has a long way to go in those areas, but he's shown enough flashes of his ability that convince me he'll get there eventually. And even if it's a slow process, I think just adding significant strength will address a lot of his current issues.

Even if he doesn't improve #1 and #2 (though dribbling is certainly something that can be improved), just the promise of improving on #3 and #4 make him worthy of a top 5 pick in this draft. His defense is legitimately good, and with his size and length, having a consistent, on balance jump shot to pair with his defensive ability will make him a long term NBA starter. I think that is his baseline, and he has potential to be much more than that.