2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[bullettoothtony]

^ nice segue to a question I wanted to ask about. I saw jeremy roach is at 80% UK on crystal ball. May not mean much now but didn't know if anyone knew why it looks that way early. I thought I'd read somewhere he really liked Duke.

[Kedsy]

But going purely based on RSCI rankings, wouldn't one also assume last year's UNC team is pretty questionable? I didn't look super deep, but Pinson was a former #15 recruit in his senior year. And Berry #25 as a senior. Other than that, rankings say they had who? Yeah, they got a good transfer and, yeah, Luke Maye was like catching lightning in a bottle. But Kenny Williams was #90. Were Manley and Brooks even rated Top-100? Brandon Robinson was #64 but played only 8.6 mpg. Felton didn't quite get 10 mpg and was #27 and a freshman.

As DavidBenAkiva pointed out, you missed Seventh Woods (#40). With that, the numbers and seniority of their top 100 recruits do match fairly closely with your hypothetical 2020 roster, except UNC had one more top 100 guy. Also, having a top 25 senior PG is a lot more important than having a #35 top 35 senior power forward. Most importantly, as you point out, having a first team All ACC player and another star quality player who were unranked out of high school is almost unheard of (and has no analog with the hypothetical Duke roster we've been discussing). If Jack White and Jordan Goldwire give us the same contribution as Luke Maye and Cam Johnson gave UNC last year, then I agree with you. Do you think that has any chance of happening?

If we are going just based on RSCI, the "worst case" Duke scenario would have seniors that were #11 (Bolden) and #35 (DeLaurier); a junior #69 (O'Connell); one or two sophomores in the Top 100 in Jones and Baker; and at least one freshman in the Top 100 in Moore. The best case scenario would add Ellis (looks likely at this point) and one or two more in the Top 100 between Carey, Hurt, and Stewart. The team would have anywhere from 6 to 9 Top 100 players. Even on that low end, that stacks up with Duke's peer competitors. I share concerns about the ceiling of the team in the worst case scenario, but the floor looks pretty high to me.

The hypothetical roster we've been discussing did not include any of Jones, Ellis, Carey, Hurt, or Stewart. Obviously if Jones, Ellis, and one or two of Carey, Hurt, and Stewart join the roster, it's a whole different conversation.

[ChillinDuke]

As DavidBenAkiva pointed out, you missed Seventh Woods (#40). With that, the numbers and seniority of their top 100 recruits do match fairly closely with your hypothetical 2020 roster, except UNC had one more top 100 guy. Also, having a top 25 senior PG is a lot more important than having a #35 top 35 senior power forward. Most importantly, as you point out, having a first team All ACC player and another star quality player who were unranked out of high school is almost unheard of (and has no analog with the hypothetical Duke roster we've been discussing). If Jack White and Jordan Goldwire give us the same contribution as Luke Maye and Cam Johnson gave UNC last year, then I agree with you. Do you think that has any chance of happening?

Generally agree, especially with the bolded. I would point out though that none of that was known in the preseason. It could be guessed but not known.

Cam Johnson-level contributions are probably attainable by someone on the hypothetical roster (12 pts, 4.7 rebs in 29 mins). I'm sort of hoping for Jack White in that ballpark next year.

Seventh Woods, I intentionally omitted him as he was not really in the rotation at 7 mpg. But your/DBA's point is taken.

In summary, I see your point and don't necessarily disagree. The hypothetical is a bit scary, to be sure. But even if we were clearly worse than 2017-18 UNC, in my eyes there's also a heck of a lot of room between a #2 tourney seed and a bottom half ACC team. But mileages can vary and we're probably using too much bandwidth for such an unlikely scenario (although I find it interesting).

- Chillin

[kAzE]

Cam Johnson-level contributions are probably attainable by someone on the hypothetical roster (12 pts, 4.7 rebs in 29 mins). I'm sort of hoping for Jack White in that ballpark next year.

I think by this statement, you have now overtaken me as the biggest Jack White optimist on DBR

But if we do somehow have this doomsday scenario where Jack White is a starter next year, I guess he could average 12 and 5 if he played 30 minutes a game. He would probably even get more rebounds than that, but I dunno about 12 points . . .

[Bluedog]

But even if we were clearly worse than 2017-18 UNC, in my eyes there's also a heck of a lot of room between a #2 tourney seed and a bottom half ACC team.

- Chillin

Ironically, UNC as a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament had a #6 seed in the ACC tournament. I realize that's not bottom half of the ACC, but it's certainly the middle. And I realize they lost a lot of tiebreakers.

[ChillinDuke]

I think by this statement, you have now overtaken me as the biggest Jack White optimist on DBR

But if we do somehow have this doomsday scenario where Jack White is a starter next year, I guess he could average 12 and 5 if he played 30 minutes a game. He would probably even get more rebounds than that, but I dunno about 12 points . . .

LOL

I'm not sure how people could not be on the Jack White Train at this point. I mean, he's a captain, right? As a junior?

He may not crush it this coming year, it's a crowded team. But he's going to play. I think he'll average at least 6 and 4 in 15 mins per.

Next year? I'll take 12 and 5. (Or 10 and 7)

- Chillin

[English]

Generally agree, especially with the bolded. I would point out though that none of that was known in the preseason. It could be guessed but not known.

Cam Johnson-level contributions are probably attainable by someone on the hypothetical roster (12 pts, 4.7 rebs in 29 mins). I'm sort of hoping for Jack White in that ballpark next year.

Seventh Woods, I intentionally omitted him as he was not really in the rotation at 7 mpg. But your/DBA's point is taken.

In summary, I see your point and don't necessarily disagree. The hypothetical is a bit scary, to be sure. But even if we were clearly worse than 2017-18 UNC, in my eyes there's also a heck of a lot of room between a #2 tourney seed and a bottom half ACC team. But mileages can vary and we're probably using too much bandwidth for such an unlikely scenario (although I find it interesting).

- Chillin

Certainly not known, but this is DBR where there is no preseason middle ground between unx is tragically overrated and will be exposed or unx is destined for glory, but I distinctly recall some esteemed poster here (OPK or CDu, IIRC, but not both) comparing Cam Johnson's upcoming contribution to that of the departed Justin Jackson (he, of the misplaced ACC POY award over our Luke Kennard). Ludicrous as it was at the time, and still is, there were plenty around here who thought Cam was a foundational player for those a-holes.

Anyway, I don't personally see an analog on our current roster--especially given K's proclivity for tight rotations and the composition of our team--but there's always a chance.

[Kedsy]

Cam Johnson-level contributions are probably attainable by someone on the hypothetical roster (12 pts, 4.7 rebs in 29 mins). I'm sort of hoping for Jack White in that ballpark next year.

I suppose it's possible, though I'd be very surprised. But what unranked player on our hypothetical roster would then reproduce Luke Maye's 17 and 10? I just don't think 2018 UNC is a good analog for our 2020 team.

The other thing to keep in mind is if you're going to pick positive outliers (like UNC and Villanova) from years past and expect our future roster to replicate those past teams' unlikely success, you should also examine teams with as much or more talent that did poorly. For example, Wake Forest's 2016 team had the following in its rotation:

Devin Thomas (Sr; 15 and 10 that year)
Bryant Crawford (All ACC freshman)
Codi Miller-McIntyre (Sr; 9.4-4.5-4.0)
John Collins (Fr; currently a good NBA player)
Konstantinos Mitoglou (So; 9.5 and 5.4)
Mitchell Wilbekin (So; over 7 ppg)
Cornelius Hudson (So; almost 8ppg)
Doral Moore (Fr; has become a really good player)

Putting RSCI aside, to me that Wake team looks better than the hypothetical roster we've been discussing, and that team went 2-16 in the ACC and 11-20 overall. And frankly, the potential 2020 roster we've been discussing seems a lot closer to the 2016 Wake team than the 2018 UNC team.

In any event, I agree with those who think this conversation isn't very productive. We don't yet know what our roster's going to look like and even when we do this sort of prediction is very difficult to get right.

[devildeac]

Ironically, UNC as a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament had a #6 seed in the ACC tournament. I realize that's not bottom half of the ACC, but it's certainly the middle. And I realize they lost a lot of tiebreakers.

They never lose enough.

[Indoor66]

They never lose enough.

But they do beat themselves. 🤣😎

[GGLC]

But they do beat themselves. 🤣😎

Ademola Okulaja... now that's a name I haven't thought about in a while

[DavidBenAkiva]

A lot of posters were wondering why Duke wasn't giving Jalen Lecque a good look when it seemed like there was great interest and need.

From Jonathan Givony of ESPN: High schooler Jalen Lecque ponders entering 2019 draft

Classic NC State Shite here

[CameronBornAndBred]

A lot of posters were wondering why Duke wasn't giving Jalen Lecque a good look when it seemed like there was great interest and need.

From Jonathan Givony of ESPN: High schooler Jalen Lecque ponders entering 2019 draft

Classic NC State Shite here

Lecque's decision is still months away, and he won't rush anything.

"We're taking it real slow," he said. "At the end of the year, I will have an answer for it. But I love NC State and NC State is a great place and I am looking forward to it."

HA! I can't imagine the State coaches are thrilled about being held in limbo for months.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Boogie Ellis announced on his twitter feed that he'll be announcing his college choice on Friday evening at 7:00 p.m. Pacific Time. For those up on Friday night at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, the announcement will be at Mission Bay High School.

[proelitedota]

Go to UNC and seat on the bench for 2 years!

[Troublemaker]

Playing at Duke sure looked like fun on Tuesday night... hopefully it made an impression.

[kAzE]

Playing at Duke sure looked like fun on Tuesday night... hopefully it made an impression.

Agreed, our guys looked like they had a great time running all those UK fans out of the gym. And it certainly doesn't hurt to lay the smack down on our biggest recruiting rival.

I think RJ beating Calipari in the U19 world championships (with Cam Reddish on team USA) was the beginning of all this, and I'm glad RJ got another chance to stick it to Cal. Maybe he'll get to do it again in the NBA someday

[BD80]

Playing at Duke sure looked like fun on Tuesday night... hopefully it made an impression.

Can you believe the gall of Coach K?

Allowing his players to have fun and give them the freedom to play "positionless" offense? Allowing Zion to jack up a three, knowing ESPN would have that close-up, hero shot afterward of Zion smiling hugely, clearing enjoying himself?

"Letting the dogs out" to intentionally and most publicly embarrass his closest recruiting competitor, encouraging his players to turn in ESPN Top Ten plays, one after another, pandering to the almighty $ and ensuring his players would be on the screen the entire next day?

What recruit did NOT see that game? What recruit, given the choice, would NOT want to part of The Brotherhood after seeing that display?


Coach K could be the next, and best, Bond villain.

[bullettoothtony]

Saw a funny post by a Kentucky fan:

Sad thing is, Duke will get better while we're running the three man weave in February.

[53n206]

"What recruit did NOT see that game? What recruit, given the choice, would NOT want to part of The Brotherhood after seeing that display?" by BD80
Saw that Coach Kerr also saw and commented.