Florence

[HereBeforeCoachK]

He must change pants every thirty minutes

I believe he initially said there was no chance the storm was coming to the mid Atlantic.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

We have bugged out of Beaufort and are staying in Raleigh - at my daughter's house - as she is in the UK for a couple weeks. So my wife is at Trader Joes getting 40 dollars worth of groceries, and the cashier asks how she's doing. My wife reports that she's stressed - evacuating here from Beaufort. The cashier makes up an excuse, goes and gets the manager, and the manager told my wife to put her card away....that she was not going to be allowed to pay for her groceries today.

(I'm only wishing she had gotten 200 dollars worth).

J/K: really neat gesture.

[tteettimes]

Elizabeth Gardner has been on so far...great monitoring and commentary
She isn’t disillusioned about being a comedian or some famous celebrity
Howdy Doody will actuate the mute button soon enough

Wish all to be safe

[IrishDevil]

I believe he initially said there was no chance the storm was coming to the mid Atlantic.

In all fairness, the consensus is that Florence's unique path has no historical precedent:

Late last week Florence was in a spot that's typically far enough north for a hurricane to curve out to sea and not impact the United States. In fact, no tropical storm or hurricane in recorded history has passed within 100 miles of Florence's location last Friday and still made a United States landfall.

I tend not to put much stock in weather predictions in general and would not let a meteorologist who was right more than 50% of the time in any casino I operated, but Florence's path was a first, so that particular error may be forgivable.

[Tom B.]

There's a live feed on Youtube from a camera mounted on the Frying Pan Shoals light tower. It's...something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

The American flag on the tower is taking a beating, but still hanging tough.


Flag.jpg

[HereBeforeCoachK]

In all fairness, the consensus is that Florence's unique path has no historical precedent:

I tend not to put much stock in weather predictions in general and would not let a meteorologist who was right more than 50% of the time in any casino I operated, but Florence's path was a first, so that particular error may be forgivable.

And in more fairness- no one has gotten this sucker right yet....no one forecast this weakening for example.

[dudog84]

She's barely a 2 now. Seriously, we Floridians are rolling our eyes at you now.

But still wanting you to be safe. Even a 1 should not be taken lightly.

[Devilwin]

And in more fairness- no one has gotten this sucker right yet...no one forecast this weakening for example.

Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell eight days ago predicted the Cape Fear area was ground zero. He also said he would be a cat three or less..He nailed the landfall, but it remains to be seen about all this movement southwest.

[aimo]

It may have gone down in category number, but that won't lessen the rain and storm surge effects. It will still be really bad at NC coast and flood-prone areas inland. Especially areas that are still trying to recover from Matthew two years ago.

[IrishDevil]

It may have gone down in category number, but that won't lessen the rain and storm surge effects. It will still be really bad at NC coast and flood-prone areas inland. Especially areas that are still trying to recover from Matthew two years ago.

Also, although the storm has weakened, its windfield has expanded - if only it were as simple as "the lower the category, the less danger"...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Also, although the storm has weakened, its windfield has expanded - it only it were as simple as "the lower the category, the less danger"...

True dat....as slow as this sucker is moving....it's gonna blow at Cat 2/Cat 1 for many many hours...dumping rain all that time. Wind and rain is cumulative in the damage it causes....time matters.

[duke79]

We have bugged out of Beaufort and are staying in Raleigh - at my daughter's house - as she is in the UK for a couple weeks. So my wife is at Trader Joes getting 40 dollars worth of groceries, and the cashier asks how she's doing. My wife reports that she's stressed - evacuating here from Beaufort. The cashier makes up an excuse, goes and gets the manager, and the manager told my wife to put her card away...that she was not going to be allowed to pay for her groceries today.

(I'm only wishing she had gotten 200 dollars worth).

J/K: really neat gesture.

Yes, VERY nice gesture! (and I'm guessing if the bill WERE $200, he might not have comped you the groceries!)

[jimsumner]

Floyd was a cat-2 when it made landfall and it caused catastrophic flooding. The Saffir-Simpson scale only measures one of a number of variables and is thus limited as a predictor.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

She's barely a 2 now. Seriously, we Floridians are rolling our eyes at you now.

But still wanting you to be safe. Even a 1 should not be taken lightly.

I was born and raised in FL. They roll through fast down there. Not like this one. This storm is slow moving and the shape of the NC/SC coastline makes it worse. This is no joke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

She's barely a 2 now. Seriously, we Floridians are rolling our eyes at you now.

But still wanting you to be safe. Even a 1 should not be taken lightly.

Come on now....that's a bit harsh. My fifth generation Florida native wife is not rolling her eyes...and BTW, if the forecast was over blown, that's not our fault.

And as others have said, the Saffir Simpson category is but one metric of a storm. This one is huge, very slow moving, so the wind and rain will just go and go and go....

[BigWayne]

Floyd was a cat-2 when it made landfall and it caused catastrophic flooding. The Saffir-Simpson scale only measures one of a number of variables and is thus limited as a predictor.

The Weatherbell.com website has his own adjusted scale to gauge the total "power" of a hurricane. For Florence, because of the size and rain factors, he has it rated higher than what just the wind speed/SS scale would give you.

[dudog84]

C'mon, y'all know I was just trying to keep it light. It's like there's no such thing as minor surgery when it's happening to you.

I was more jibing the 'Storm of the Century' hysteria that some (not on this board, the prognosticators) were terrorizing people with. But maybe they do that to make sure people evacuate. Or maybe they do it to keep people tuned in.

[Indoor66]

But maybe they do that to make sure people evacuate. Or maybe they do it to keep people tuned in.

Call Cantore. I'm sure he can provide a definitive explanation and clarification on both of these points.

[CameronBornAndBred]

New Bern is experiencing some major flooding. Has been windy all day. Personally, we still have power, and I am super surprised at that. It has tried hard to go out a few times. Most of my friends here are in the dark. One friend who lives on the river has evacuated to her second floor with her husband.
We are now in the 20"-30" rain zone, so we know tonight is just the beginning of a long few days.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

C'mon, y'all know I was just trying to keep it light. It's like there's no such thing as minor surgery when it's happening to you.

I was more jibing the 'Storm of the Century' hysteria that some (not on this board, the prognosticators) were terrorizing people with. But maybe they do that to make sure people evacuate. Or maybe they do it to keep people tuned in.

I just think it’s hard to “keep it light” when the flooding is predicted to be akin to a Cat 5 hurricane hitting. People are going to lose everything, though hopefully not their lives.