Originally Posted by
miramar
That's an interesting analysis, particularly the Ken Pomeroy observation that most teams are more far accurate from 19+ feet than from 5-19 feet. We all know that the mid-range jumper is a dying art, so maybe it's time to return to the bank shot. They used to say that the bank was always open in Westwood, and Johnny Wooden certainly knew how to cash it in.
As far as Duke is concerned, I would think that the new three-point line also means that defenses will be stretched two feet farther on both sides, which should open up the driving lanes. Good news for Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, and John Scheyer.
As far as 3-point shooting is concerned, Duke's season statistics are not as strong as I would have thought, although I imagine that these percentages dropped towards the end of the season. Among returning players who shoot the three, here are their shooting percentages for 2 and 3 point shots (I'm not including Pocius because of limited playing time):
Henderson 51.1 & 31.7% (-19.4%)
Singler 54.5 & 34.0% (-20.5%)
Scheyer 49.3 & 38.8% (-10.5%)
Paulus 42.2 & 42.3% (+0.1%)
Smith 51.6 & 38.6% (-13%)
Henderson only took 1.9 threes a game, so that's not a big deal. Singler took 4.4 per game, and there's no question that his shooting dropped off as the season progressed, but he should be fresher next year if there is more help in the middle. Scheyer (3.6 three point shots per game) really should be better than 38.8%, but there seemed to be definite improvement from his freshman year, when he missed too many open threes (36.5%). Paulus (5.8 three point shots per game) is a big surprise since his shooting percentage is identical for twos and threes (in fact, he only made 35 two pointers all season, or 1 per game). Finally, Smith (1.7 three point shots in 14.7 minutes per game) had about the same rate as Scheyer, although he was somewhat streaky.
The five players hit a total of 38.0% of their threes, yet all but Paulus have room for reasonable improvement. Even with the longer arc, it wouldn't surprise me if Duke hit 40% next year, so I don't think that we will be one of those threecentric teams that are affected by the change.
BTW, Taylor King only hit 37.7% of his threes, so his percentage was lower than that of Paulus, Scheyer, and Smith, and identical to the team as a whole.