Predictions for Upcoming ACC Season (Part II)

[gw67]

About two months ago, I started a thread where several assessed the ACC teams for the coming season. With about 3/4 of the OOC schedule completed, the first conference game this weekend and play beginning in earnest in a little over two weeks, I figured that I would re-visit my predictions. As of today, the ACC is 94-18 with three unbeaten teams and several teams rated highly in the polls as well as in the “nerd” ratings. I still break the conference into four groups:

Elite Teams: UNC and Duke (13-15 wins)
Good Teams: Wake, Clemson, Miami (10-11 wins)
On the edge: Virginia Tech, Maryland and Florida State (6-8 wins)
Bringing up the rear: N.C.State, Georgia Tech, BC and Virginia (3-5 wins)

I moved Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech down one level based on my observations. Thoughts on some of the teams are below:

UNC – The best team in the conference until proven otherwise.
Duke – A deep team that is capable of beating the Heels. If the big men continue to improve and the team looks for the extra pass, they can be very good in ACC play.
Wake – They are a nice mix of experience and youth, size and speed, and they shoot the ball very well.
Clemson – They have the easiest schedule among the top teams. They also shoot the ball well. They need to grab some wins on the road.
Miami – They have the players to be very good. Hurdle, Dews and Asbury need to step it up.
Virginia Tech – Vassallo, Allen and Delaney are good players. They need to find players who can consistently complement these three.
Florida State – The Noles start 7-1, 6-9, 6-8 and 6-7 along with Douglas. They are averaging nearly five more turnovers than assists. They need to find another ballhandler to take the load off Douglas who is more of a shooter rather than a distributor.
Maryland – The Terps have the toughest schedule in the league and they are very small inside. The perimeter play has been good to date but lack of size will be hard to overcome.

As of today, I would pick Hansbrough, Lawson, Singler, Teague and Lawal for All ACC. I figure that the ACC will get five teams into the NCAAT although if Florida State or Maryland win 8 games, they could be on the bubble.

gw67

[davekay1971]

I agree for the most part with your list (and very much in principle with the four categories idea). I think of the top two categories as being teams that you expect, by season's end, to be NCAA locks. Category 3 is the bubble teams. Category 4 is hoping for an NIT bid...

I agree wholeheartedly with the selections for Elite teams and Good teams.

I have a hard time figuring out Maryland, and that's probably because they rise and fall so dramatically with Vasquez. When he's on, Maryland is a very good team. When he's playing poorly, they stink. I don't think any other team depends so much on one inconsistent performer.

Florida St. is also a little hard to figure out. I'm not at all sold on them, yet. So, both Maryland and Florida State could end up in the bubble category, and they could end up on the outside looking in.

I think NCSU will end up in the bubble category. Some good signs from them: their young perimeter players (Mays and CJ Williams) are contributing already; Gonzalez is unspectacular, but steadier at the point, which will help if Degand continues to have trouble staying healthy; most importantly, Costner decided to stop sulking, bring his ball, and come play. His 24 point, 17 board performance against ECU was end-of-his-freshman-year-Costner, not the fat crybaby we saw all last season. He and McCauley could be one of the best 4-5 combos in the ACC. Combined with a decent scoring threat in Fells, some good role players in Fergie, Harris, Smith, and Williams, and some steady point guard play, this makes NCSU a much better team than we saw last year.

[Olympic Fan]

"Wake – They are a nice mix of experience and youth, size and speed, and they shoot the ball very well."

GW -- good overall evaluation of the league ... my one quibble is the last part of the statement above. I think Wake's shooting is VERY suspect and will be the reason they don't land in the elite level.

Teague is the team's only reasonably consistent shooter. Hale is coming off a rare hot night against Wright State -- luckily for the Deacs, he got hot on the night when everybody else went ice cold from the perimeter. Smith and Williams are horribly inconsistent shooters. Johnson likes to think he's a good long-range shooter and he hits just enough to keep firing out there, but he's much more effective slashing to the basket.

There will be nights when some of their shooters are hitting and they'll be able to play with anybody in the country. But I believe they will face some nights when Teague is not enough. With their strength and size inside, they are going to face a lot of packed-in defenses ... they need more consistent shooting than they've shown.

[ddsdevil]

"Wake – They are a nice mix of experience and youth, size and speed, and they shoot the ball very well."

GW -- good overall evaluation of the league ... my one quibble is the last part of the statement above. I think Wake's shooting is VERY suspect and will be the reason they don't land in the elite level.

Teague is the team's only reasonably consistent shooter. Hale is coming off a rare hot night against Wright State -- luckily for the Deacs, he got hot on the night when everybody else went ice cold from the perimeter. Smith and Williams are horribly inconsistent shooters. Johnson likes to think he's a good long-range shooter and he hits just enough to keep firing out there, but he's much more effective slashing to the basket.

There will be nights when some of their shooters are hitting and they'll be able to play with anybody in the country. But I believe they will face some nights when Teague is not enough. With their strength and size inside, they are going to face a lot of packed-in defenses ... they need more consistent shooting than they've shown.

Yeah, I wouldn't consider Wake a good shooting team at all. They rely on their athleticism. I'm really anxious to see what Wake is going to do. If Dino has the ability to coach his guys and can help his guys mature early I could see them challenging us for the 2 spot of the ACC. I don't think it will happen, but they certainly have the talent.

[Ders24]

Yeah, I wouldn't consider Wake a good shooting team at all. They rely on their athleticism. I'm really anxious to see what Wake is going to do. If Dino has the ability to coach his guys and can help his guys mature early I could see them challenging us for the 2 spot of the ACC. I don't think it will happen, but they certainly have the talent.

Completely agree -- I think coaching is Wake's biggest question mark at this point. It will be interesting to see how things work out for them.

[gw67]

dave, Olympic - I haven't seen State play this year so I made be underrating them. Certainly, McCauley and Costner played very well together two years ago. With regard to Wake, they shot lights out in the one game that I watched them play and the ACC site shows them with a high shooting % during their first nine games. That may be due to close in shots by all their big men (they are almost as big as Florida State). I am also biased. I think Teague is the best player in the ACC that you don't hear much about and that Johnson is just a notch below Singler.

gw67

[jv001]

Teague lit us last year in our loss at Wake. I don't think he will have as good a game with Nolan & E-Will guarding him. I just hope Greg does not have to guard him long. Smith is another quick guard that gives us problems with his drives and dishes. If we play Duke D we should handle them. Go Duke!

[gw67]

If Ish Smith starts, I would expect Scheyer to guard Teague and for Smith to try and slow down Ish Smith. If Ish Smith doesn't start, then Smith will take on Teague. Teague had a good game last year but Ish Smith didn't. I don't see Williams playing a lot against Wake unless one of the perimeter players is hurt or in foul trouble. Scheyer, Smith and Henderson will likely garner most of the minutes with some help from Paulus and McClure, and a few minutes from Williams. This has been the approach this year during the five games against good competition and I expect it to continue.

gw67

[jv001]

If Ish Smith starts, I would expect Scheyer to guard Teague and for Smith to try and slow down Ish Smith. If Ish Smith doesn't start, then Smith will take on Teague. Teague had a good game last year but Ish Smith didn't. I don't see Williams playing a lot against Wake unless one of the perimeter players is hurt or in foul trouble. Scheyer, Smith and Henderson will likely garner most of the minutes with some help from Paulus and McClure, and a few minutes from Williams. This has been the approach this year during the five games against good competition and I expect it to continue.

gw67

8 minutes from Williams would help with the D on the Wake guards. I wonder who will get Johnson from Wake. He had a good game if memory serves me correctly. Probably Kyle but that's not a certain because Johnson likes to drift outside. That could mean Gerald might take him. I like Gerald coming from weakside help for those great blocks. Can't wait for ACC play. Go Duke!

[gw67]

jv - Your number of minutes for Williams (8) is in the ball park for the five games so far against competitive teams. He might be able to bother Teague with his size or guard one of their smaller wings. I like Williams but his time to shine is probably in the future when the current perimeter players either graduate or leave early for the pros. Like you, I really look forward to ACC play.

gw67

[ACCBBallFan]

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Duke&t=p

Ken Pomeroy's score predictions were blow out vs Asheville, no surprise there except he almost nailed the exact score, and close victory vs Xavier:

Wed Dec 17 Duke vs. (283) NC Asheville (sr) Home W, 100-58[75] (100%)

Sat Dec 20 Duke vs. (16) Xavier (sr) Neutral (East Rutherford, NJ) W, 71-67[73] (65%)

Pomeroy ACC predictions have Wake quite a bitter lower than many are predicting, and MD/ GA Tech/BC a bit higher than many, with 6 ACC teams dancing.

14-02 UNC (2)
12-04 Duke (6)
11-05 Clemson (18) has easiest unbalanced ACC Schedule

10-06 Miami (26)
09-07 MD (28)
09-07 Wake (32)

07-09 GA Tech (51)
07-09 BC (63)

05-11 FSU (77)
05-11 VA Tech (84)

04-12 NC St (97)
02-14 UVA (132)

Pomeroy has Georgetown as # 1 team at this point, with UNC #2 and Duke #6.

1 Georgetown BE 7-1 .
2 North Carolina ACC 10-0
3 Pittsburgh BE 10-0
4 Gonzaga WCC 8-1
5 Louisville BE 7-1
6 Duke ACC 9-1 .
7 Ohio St. B10 6-0
8 Connecticut BE 9-0
9 Missouri B12 8-1
10 Oklahoma B12 10-0

11 Memphis CUSA 5-2
12 Brigham Young MWC 10-0
13 Baylor B12 8-1
14 Purdue B10 8-2
15 Kansas B12 7-2 .
16 Xavier A10 9-0 .
17 Utah St. WAC 6-1
18 Clemson ACC 11-0 .
19 Northwestern B10 7-1
20 Tennessee SEC 7-2 .

[ACCBBallFan]

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Duke&t=p

Ken Pomeroy's score predictions were blow out vs Asheville, no surprise there except he almost nailed the exact score, and close victory vs Xavier:

Wed Dec 17 Duke vs. (283) NC Asheville (sr) Home W, 100-58[75] (100%)

Sat Dec 20 Duke vs. (16) Xavier (sr) Neutral (East Rutherford, NJ) W, 71-67[73] (65%)

Pomeroy ACC predictions have Wake quite a bitter lower than many are predicting, and MD/ GA Tech/BC a bit higher than many, with 6 ACC teams dancing.

14-02 UNC (2)
12-04 Duke (6)
11-05 Clemson (18) has easiest unbalanced ACC Schedule

10-06 Miami (26)
09-07 MD (28)
09-07 Wake (32)

07-09 GA Tech (51)
07-09 BC (63)

05-11 FSU (77)
05-11 VA Tech (84)

04-12 NC St (97)
02-14 UVA (132)

Pomeroy has Georgetown as # 1 team at this point, with UNC #2 and Duke #6(My picks in parenthesis)

1 Georgetown (13) BE 7-1 .
2 North Carolina (1) ACC 9-0
3 Pittsburgh (3) BE 11-0
4 Gonzaga (7) WCC 7-1
5 Louisville (10) BE 6-1
6 Duke (6) ACC 8-1 .
7 Ohio St.(14) B10 7-0
8 Connecticut (2) BE 9-0
9 Missouri (26) B12 8-1
10 Oklahoma (4) B12 10-0

11 Memphis (19) CUSA 6-2
12 Brigham Young (25) MWC 10-0
13 Baylor (21) B12 8-1
14 Purdue (18) B10 8-2
15 Kansas (36) B12 7-2 .
16 Xavier (8) A10 9-0 .
17 Utah St. (46) WAC 7-1
18 Clemson (23) ACC 11-0 .
19 Northwestern (33) B10 7-1
20 Tennessee (12) SEC 7-2 .

Most noticably missing from Pomeroy's top 20 are these teams that I have ranked as follows (Pomeroy's in parenthesis):

05 - TX (22)
09 - Wake (29)
11 - Syracuse (35)
15 - Notre Dame (34)
16 - UCLA (now 19 - chaanges daily)
17 - Nova (30)
20 - Davidson (36)

He seems way off on Utah St, KU and NW

[MADevil30]

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Duke&t=p

Ken Pomeroy's score predictions were blow out vs Asheville, no surprise there except he almost nailed the exact score, and close victory vs Xavier:

Wed Dec 17 Duke vs. (283) NC Asheville (sr) Home W, 100-58[75] (100%)

Sat Dec 20 Duke vs. (16) Xavier (sr) Neutral (East Rutherford, NJ) W, 71-67[73] (65%)

Pomeroy ACC predictions have Wake quite a bitter lower than many are predicting, and MD/ GA Tech/BC a bit higher than many, with 6 ACC teams dancing.

14-02 UNC (2)
12-04 Duke (6)
11-05 Clemson (18) has easiest unbalanced ACC Schedule

10-06 Miami (26)
09-07 MD (28)
09-07 Wake (32)

07-09 GA Tech (51)
07-09 BC (63)

05-11 FSU (77)
05-11 VA Tech (84)

04-12 NC St (97)
02-14 UVA (132)

Pomeroy has Georgetown as # 1 team at this point, with UNC #2 and Duke #6.

1 Georgetown BE 7-1 .
2 North Carolina ACC 10-0
3 Pittsburgh BE 10-0
4 Gonzaga WCC 8-1
5 Louisville BE 7-1
6 Duke ACC 9-1 .
7 Ohio St. B10 6-0
8 Connecticut BE 9-0
9 Missouri B12 8-1
10 Oklahoma B12 10-0

11 Memphis CUSA 5-2
12 Brigham Young MWC 10-0
13 Baylor B12 8-1
14 Purdue B10 8-2
15 Kansas B12 7-2 .
16 Xavier A10 9-0 .
17 Utah St. WAC 6-1
18 Clemson ACC 11-0 .
19 Northwestern B10 7-1
20 Tennessee SEC 7-2 .

I'm sorry, I've payed attention to Georgetown this year and went to the Memphis game and as much as I respect kenpoms system (I think his math does do a great job) I cannot for the life of me see them as #1 by the end of the year. Could anyone who understands the algorithms explain what factors are affecting these predictions most?

[Bob Green]

About two months ago, I started a thread where several assessed the ACC teams for the coming season.

I'm sticking with my prediction that Clemson finishes third in the ACC. I believe Wake's youth will do them in over the long ACC season.

[The1Bluedevil]

According to Pomeroy:

G-Town is not going to lose again the rest of the year. I don't know if Oklahoma City could win 18 Big East games. So that statement is an absolute joke.

Missouri only losing 3 Big 12 games.

I could go on all night with these outrageous predictions here but I will leave with the worst prediction of them all.

Northwestern going 16-2 in the Big 11 including a sweep of Michigan State. Anyone want to call Vegas and take that bet?

His math is very good I'm sure, but what about an eye test on some of these predictions? Can one honestly look at these and think they are even close to coming true?