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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Port Townsend, WA

    Louisville vs UNC

    Would this be a game that we all wish, somehow, both teams could lose?

    I think Padgett and Caracter both match up well with traveler-whose-name-I-shant-utter. I'm hoping Caracter brings his inner-thug and works him hard - nothing violent, just super-physical - to wear him down and get him out of rhythm. Louisville's shooting guards are fast and accurate and work really well when in the team mentality they've discovered since their early exit in the conference tournament. I also think Pitino can out coach Ole Roy but that won't really be a factor.

    Defense will decide who dances in San Antonio and I have to give the edge to the "slightly less than out of control" Cards in that column.

    Cards by 6, 78-72.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Carolina
    Louisville doesn't stand a chance. They are reckless on offense. Sigh.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    I actually have Louisville beating UNC in my pool. Of course that doesn't mean much since I had Duke going to the final four. You can always count on at least one #1 seed not getting to the final four. I have a hard time seeing Xavier beating UCLA and I think that Kansas should take care of Villanova and Wisconsin. Stanford could pose problems for Memphis and I think that Louisville is dangerous for UNC.

    When you think about it, UNC really got screwed on the S curve. Going into the tourney, it looked like UNC, Kansas and UCLA were the strongest bets to win it all (I don't overly buy into Memphis). To win the NC, UNC should have to beat Kansas and then UCLA. That's a tough challenge.

  4. #4
    Sigh, As much as I want it to happen, I just don't think UNC will lose this game...
    In the FF, anything can happen, but I think they will be a favorite to beat KU and UCLA/(memphis, stanford, etc)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    UNC will likely be the favorite in all of their remaining games. But remember: any team that can lose to Maryland at home can lose to anyone who is good enough to reach the Final Four. Being the favorite isn't all that relevant. If UNC wins it all, they're going to have to go through at least two games in which they are severely tested.

    So far, UNC has played two games against teams that play no defense and one against a team that plays tough defense but couldn't shoot/score. So they've beaten up on teams that couldn't compete. That won't be the case in the Final Four. Kansas and UCLA, for example, play stout defense (like Washington St) and can also score points (unlike Washington St).

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by KenTankerous View Post
    Would this be a game that we all wish, somehow, both teams could lose?
    Perfect sentiment. But, although Pitino is the better coach, 'holes will prevail by 8; they can't possibly play as disjointedly again as they did in the first half of Thursday's game. What a shame...

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    I actually have Louisville beating UNC in my pool.
    Me too and its going to be a pretty important game for me in terms of winning that pool.

    But back to the main point. I really want Louisville to win, and they probably could win but I don't think they are going to. I hate to say it but I was thoroughly impressed with UNC being able to play a half court offense to win that game. I have waited all year for a team to slow UNC down and see if they could handle it, Wash St. did for a while and UNC was still up over 10 pts at half time.

    Louisville is going to need to play one heck of a game to get UNC, I'll be rooting hard for them. I really think Kansas will get the better of UNC in the Semi-Finals but we will see.

  8. #8
    If Louisville stops Lawson, they win. If they don't stop Lawson, they lose. That's my simplest guess.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Louisville can beat UNC. Watching them live against Tenn last night, they are very athletic, very big inside, and they're quick to the ball on D. I think their perimeter players are quick enough to stay up on Lawson, Ellington, and Green, and I think they're inside guys are big enough to give Hansbrough the same kind of trouble that kid from Wash St. gave him. Keep in mind that Louisville struggled with the same kind of injury issues this year that UNC did, A major difference in their records is that Louisville dropped a couple of games due to that while Carolina escaped with overtime or close wins (ahem, Carolina refs, ahem). Louisville thoroughly dominated a much better team last night than Carolina has seen in the tournament. Whether you think Tenn was overrated or whatever, they did beat Memphis. They're a good team, and Louisville made them look stupid.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I am following a longstanding DBR tradition in this game...

    I'm rooting for the meteor.

    --Jason "" Evans

  11. #11

    Will have to play better to win

    Louisville is hot and on a bit of a roll right now, but they were very sloppy in the first half with too many turnovers. Fortunately for them Tennessee was worse and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.

    I thought that the Cardinals were the best matchup against UNC when the bracket came out and still believe that. Plus, Pitino is savvy and has a lot of experience at this level (8x in the regional final). They have athleticism but it will take a stronger performance to win than what they showed against Tennessee, which I think was a bit overrated this season.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by freedevil View Post
    Louisville doesn't stand a chance. They are reckless on offense. Sigh.
    No offense Freedevil, but your statement sounds like you didn't even watch Louisville last night. The Cardinals, despite a lot of first half TOs, looked quite impressive for long periods of the Tennessee game.

    First things first, Louisville will be the best team UNC has played all year. Number two, they have the front line depth to deal with Hansbrough should they get into foul trouble. Then, they have long perimeter players in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams that can cause trouble for Ellington and Green. Oh, and they have a HOF coach.

    Off of one day's preparation, I'd say UNC's in for a dogfight.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Carolina
    Gotta disagree Classof06 - I watched much of Louisville last night. They had plenty of second half TOs as well. I also was never impressed with Tennessee this year after watching some 5 of their games, so looking good against the Vols doesn't really make me impressed by Louisville.

    I agree they match up well, I just think UNC is steamrolling right now.

    And, I don't know if I truly believe this or not, but the best team UNC played all year beat them at home on January 6th.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    On a neutral court I give Louisville a decent shot considering how they are playing right now (which is pretty darned good, IMHO). But playing at DDD - that's Dean Dome a Deux - the Heels have too much of an advantage. It's going to be amazing to watch a game where Louisville really should have a large contingency pulling for them, yet hear all the cheers going up for Goliath. And we all know that's what it's going to be like.

    Gary

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by freedevil View Post
    Gotta disagree Classof06 - I watched much of Louisville last night. They had plenty of second half TOs as well. I also was never impressed with Tennessee this year after watching some 5 of their games, so looking good against the Vols doesn't really make me impressed by Louisville.

    I agree they match up well, I just think UNC is steamrolling right now.

    And, I don't know if I truly believe this or not, but the best team UNC played all year beat them at home on January 6th.
    I'm guessing you mean February 6th and no, Duke is not better than Louisville; Louisville actually got better as the year progressed. Maybe we were better in February than Louisville was in early February--we were better than a lot of teams at that point. But right now, I'd have to say Louisville is UNC's toughest opponent to date.

    If Duke was as good as Louisville, we'd still be playing in what is a MUCH weaker region; the weakest of the four, in fact.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Carolina
    ^ Don't disagree with any of the above - particularly my mistake on the month Duke won at UNC.

    I do think Duke in February was better than the Louisville team I saw last night. Duke was playing incredible defense and was not turning the ball over.

    Hopefully, after Saturday, you are right - that UL can and does win.

  17. #17
    One benefit to Louisville is having just come off a game against UNC-lite on the defensive side of things. Tennessee likes to pressure and has good athletes at all positions, so the speed of UNC won't come as anything of a shock.

    Of course, the 'Ville did turn the ball over 73 times last night. So, maybe playing another man team with good athletes isn't such a blessing.

    The nice wrinkle is that Louisville will show a zone look that may frustrate UNC. And I look forward to seeing Clark down low on Hansbrough some. I think his length and athleticism, on top of Padgett's and Caracter's size and strength, will bother him some.

    The nice thing about zoning North Carolina is that their bigs aren't great passers, so letting Thompson, Stephenson or Hansbrough have the ball in the high post isn't instant death like it could be if their bigs passed really well.

    I still think UNC wins, but if Louisville has a better than average shooting game, they have a real chance.

  18. #18
    Louisville has an uphill battle. Carolina is 24-1 in NCAA tourney games played in the state of North Carolina

  19. #19
    Carolina is clearly the more skilled team but I suspect Louisville's athleticism will keep the game close. If Louisville can finish their layups and chippies inside, it will be a great game. No idea if they will, though. And I agree that I'm looking forward to seeing UNC go against Louisville's zone. If UNC wins, they'll have earned it.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lompoc, West Carolina
    Ellington and Green are the key. If Louisville can slow the productivity of these two, then they have a good chance.
    From here on, Beaker is going to see the remaining competition that have defenders equal to the task of standing up to his butt bumping, back-to-the-basket bullying.

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