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  1. #1

    Basketball Prospectus blasts Hansbrough's NPOYs

    article

    Thoughts?

  2. #2
    The people on that site are usually intelligent, but they're a slave to their numbers.

  3. #3
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    Could it be that Kevin Love is not good for college basketball and Tyler "travels every time" Hansborough is?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    The people on that site are usually intelligent, but they're a slave to their numbers.
    Yeah, but what are the numbers overlooking here? Love and Hansbrough play the same position on talented teams that have seen similar success this year.

  5. #5
    seems like a silly argument to me. 18 & 10 ain't 24 & 10 and the other stuff is a wash, and if anything is in favor of hans: (i.e. they both play for top teams so thats a wash, but hansbrough stepped up his game when lawson went out and carried the team...add in the fact that hansbrough is a junior and has done this for 3 straight seasons now, and its not even close)

    the real argument is between Hansbrough and Beasley, and I would have given it to beasley a month ago, but the way hans carried his team w/o lawson, I have to give it to Hans now...

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdh21 View Post
    article

    Thoughts?
    He lost me when he dismissed Michael Beasley...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    seems like a silly argument to me. 18 & 10 ain't 24 & 10 and the other stuff is a wash, and if anything is in favor of hans: (i.e. they both play for top teams so thats a wash, but hansbrough stepped up his game when lawson went out and carried the team...add in the fact that hansbrough is a junior and has done this for 3 straight seasons now, and its not even close)

    the real argument is between Hansbrough and Beasley, and I would have given it to beasley a month ago, but the way hans carried his team w/o lawson, I have to give it to Hans now...
    I agree with every single word of this assessment. Tell me why Hansbrough is NOT deserving. The numbers, the carrying of the team on his back in Lawson's absence. He plays for the number one team in the country and they wouldn't be there without him.

    Good analysis Silky J. Again, for anyone, give me one compelling reason (other than the fact he looks like the offspring of Sinead O' Connor and Beaker) for why he SHOULDN'T be player of the year.

    -EarlJam, who hates UNC but really admires Hansbrough's achievements

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Yeah, but what are the numbers overlooking here? Love and Hansbrough play the same position on talented teams that have seen similar success this year.
    Well, I'd start by asking why the guy even bother quoting Hansbrough's freshman and sophomore numbers - how do those have any relevance at all? Who cares if freshman Love is better than freshmen Hansbrough? I think that he mentions it at all is evidence of an agenda.

    Oh, and I think the numbers overlook how Hansbrough stepped up his play while Lawson was injured.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    seems like a silly argument to me. 18 & 10 ain't 24 & 10 and the other stuff is a wash, and if anything is in favor of hans: (i.e. they both play for top teams so thats a wash, but hansbrough stepped up his game when lawson went out and carried the team...add in the fact that hansbrough is a junior and has done this for 3 straight seasons now, and its not even close)

    the real argument is between Hansbrough and Beasley, and I would have given it to beasley a month ago, but the way hans carried his team w/o lawson, I have to give it to Hans now...
    Well, the argument is that Love's 18 is more efficient than Hansbrough's 23. And that Love is a better rebounder. And that Love gets more assists and blocks more shots than Hansbrough. This is all magnified when you consider the fact that UNC gets a lot more possessions per game (i.e., more chances for Hansbrough to get rebounds, points, etc).

    Also, the award is not a lifetime achievement award, so the fact that Hansbrough has done it for a long time should be irrelevant. It is the 2007-2008 player of the year award.

    I think it's a nitpicky argument on the margins, but I don't think it's a silly one.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    seems like a silly argument to me. 18 & 10 ain't 24 & 10 and the other stuff is a wash, and if anything is in favor of hans: (i.e. they both play for top teams so thats a wash, but hansbrough stepped up his game when lawson went out and carried the team...add in the fact that hansbrough is a junior and has done this for 3 straight seasons now, and its not even close)

    the real argument is between Hansbrough and Beasley, and I would have given it to beasley a month ago, but the way hans carried his team w/o lawson, I have to give it to Hans now...
    Doesn't seem like a silly argument to me. 18 and 10 for Love is a lot more impressive when you consider that UCLA plays at a much slower (11 possessions a game) pace than UNC. I think the rebounding
    (especially the defensive ones) and assist stats are not a wash. Love is a better rebounder and passer than Hansbrough. That is pretty obvious when watching him play.

    Love also carried his team when Collison was out or not 100% early in the season. UCLA is a top team in a top conference just like UNC. If you look at the stats that Gasaway shows (and throw in assists and blocks as well) Love is better than Hans in everything but FT rate this year.

    I'm not sure that I would vote for Love over Hans, but he makes a good argument about the effects of media and perception.

  11. #11
    I'm with Earljam. Its hard to win in this league when both your #1 and #2 point guards are out, yet Beaker did everything he could to help the holes win during that stretch. I'd take him over Beasley just because I'm not a big fan on giving MVPs or NPOY awards to the guy who scores the most. I want the guy who drives his team to victory.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Doesn't seem like a silly argument to me. 18 and 10 for Love is a lot more impressive when you consider that UCLA plays at a much slower (11 possessions a game) pace than UNC. I think the rebounding
    (especially the defensive ones) and assist stats are not a wash. Love is a better rebounder and passer than Hansbrough. That is pretty obvious when watching him play.

    Love also carried his team when Collison was out or not 100% early in the season. UCLA is a top team in a top conference just like UNC. If you look at the stats that Gasaway shows (and throw in assists and blocks as well) Love is better than Hans in everything but FT rate this year.

    I'm not sure that I would vote for Love over Hans, but he makes a good argument about the effects of media and perception.
    As the resident UCLA fan, I have to throw in that I think it's a great argument. I'm not sure that Love should be player of the year, but if you look at his rebounding rate as a % of available rebounds, it's ridiculous. His numbers are "only" 18 and 11 because he does effectively play in shorter games due to the pace. Additionally, they is a much larger emphasis on defense for UCLA. However, I'm not positive that Love is a great defender, although he does do alright. He's stepped up his help defense (which is generally where he gets his blocks) but his foot speed on hedges is a real concern.

  13. #13

    Argument for Love

    I will start out by saying that I think Hansbrough is a tremendous player and on an upper echelon historically in the ACC. I'd love to have him playing for Duke and cannot imagine how much vitriole would be spewed his way if he did.

    That said, I think there are plenty of arguments in support of Kevin Love. UCLA plays games that average 65.1 possessions per game (according to Pomeroy). UNC plays games that average 76.1 possessions per game. While Hansbrough does average 23.1 and 10.5 a game, Kevin Love would be averaging 20.4 and 12.8 playing at that pace. Are 2.7 points and 2.3rebounds a wash? That argument could be made (as could the one that 2.3 rebounds is more important than 2.7 points), though I certainly don't know how to quantify them. Statistically, other than scoring less and having roughly the same FT%, Love does everything better than Hansbrough (notably the assists and blocks).

    As for playing for the number one team, I don't buy that argument at all. The polls have Carolina ranked higher, Pomeroy has UCLA higher. Who's right? Who knows? Polls and rating systems are completely subjective.

    Both these teams, at this point, are a wash. If Wayne Ellington's shot does not go in at Clemson or the shot by Tech at the buzzer goes down, Carolina is certainly not ranked number one right now, and not one of those outcomes would be Hansbrough's fault. And while Carolina did make it through unscathed (almost) without Lawson, they weren't exactly staring down murderer's row. Had they been forced to play Stanford, Arizona, USC or Washington State, who knows what the results might have been?

    The answer is that no one does, and I think that feeds into the larger point of the basketball prospectus article. I think Hansbrough is plenty deserving of winning this award, and I gathered the BP writer did not have a huge problem with it either. What bothered him the most is that discussions like this never even occurred. I have watched a ton of basketball this year, and while I have seen Hansbrough play probably 20 times, I think I might have seen part of one UCLA game. I think the author was arguing that there is an argument for someone other than Hansbrought to have been named POY, but no one is making it.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by EarlJam View Post
    I agree with every single word of this assessment. Tell me why Hansbrough is NOT deserving. The numbers, the carrying of the team on his back in Lawson's absence. He plays for the number one team in the country and they wouldn't be there without him.

    Good analysis Silky J. Again, for anyone, give me one compelling reason (other than the fact he looks like the offspring of Sinead O' Connor and Beaker) for why he SHOULDN'T be player of the year.

    -EarlJam, who hates UNC but really admires Hansbrough's achievements
    The argument is pretty simple. It's not an argument that Hansbrough isn't deserving - he's had a great year, and as BP says, he's the second-best player in the country. The argument is that, when you discount stats by the number of possessions the player's team has and consider efficiency as opposed to raw totals, Love's numbers look better than Hansbrough's.

  15. #15
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    One could argue either way between Hansbrough and Love. Very even? Give it to the junior. Perhaps they'll meet for the right to meet Duke in the Championship Game (!) and... uh... duke it out.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    The people on that site are usually intelligent, but they're a slave to their numbers.
    What do you mean?

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by jlear View Post
    Could it be that Kevin Love is not good for college basketball and Tyler "travels every time" Hansborough is?
    Possibly, but I don't see the argument.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The argument is pretty simple. It's not an argument that Hansbrough isn't deserving - he's had a great year, and as BP says, he's the second-best player in the country. The argument is that, when you discount stats by the number of possessions the player's team has and consider efficiency as opposed to raw totals, Love's numbers look better than Hansbrough's.
    Maybe, but "the numbers" alone do not tell the whole story. Hansbrough has demonstrated leadership and clutchiness (my word) all year when it counts (see Clemson games).

    The guy is the face of UNC basketball and UNC is #1 in the country. He's their undisputed leader, their go-to guy. I don't see how anyone else could come close to challenging him for this award this year.

    Even if his eyes do bug out of his head.

    -EarlJam

    P.S. Sorry, Just can't let a Pro-Hansbrough post go without a jab.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Well, I'd start by asking why the guy even bother quoting Hansbrough's freshman and sophomore numbers - how do those have any relevance at all? Who cares if freshman Love is better than freshmen Hansbrough? I think that he mentions it at all is evidence of an agenda.
    What agenda would that be? They posted those stats to support this line in the article: "It's taken Hansbrough three seasons to become the weapon on offense that Love already is."

    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Oh, and I think the numbers overlook how Hansbrough stepped up his play while Lawson was injured.
    Note that Love played the early part of this season without HIS point guard, Darren Collison, too.

    The article is a good article for what it is -- a statistical comparison between Love and Hansbrough. IMO, there's no reason to read into it any sort of nebulous agenda or personality defects ("slave to the stats") of the author(s).

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdh21 View Post
    article

    Thoughts?
    POY should go to a complete player

    He's an adequate defensive rebounder, he never blocks shots (ten the entire year) and rarely records assists (28).
    Hansborough is not that. he has never truly impressed me becasue of this.

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