Duke vs. UNC point spread

[Uncle Drew]

UNC as 5 or 6 point favorites? No chance. UNC will neither start out as the favorite nor end as the favorite.

I don't mean to be too argumentative since playing guess-the-spread is obviously a petty issue, but I know of no gambler that would predict UNC to be a favorite in this game. And it has nothing to do with whether I personally think Duke will win or not (although I DO happen to think Duke will win), and when the oddsmakers release the line, it will also not reflect whether THEY think Duke will win or not. Oddsmakers are just trying to balance the money, and there is no chance that THAT much money will flow towards UNC such that they become favorites.

I foresee the line starting out Duke -3.5, ending around Duke -2, with almost 0% chance of UNC ending up as the favorite. Remember, Duke is an extremely public team (same with UNC), and people respect Cameron Indoor. Any line with UNC as the favorite will have too much money coming in on Duke.

I'm not saying UNC should be the favorite, I'm not saying they are the better team. But there are a ton of factors when it comes to making odds. Lawson's health was a HUGE factor in the last game and is a bit of a factor Saturday. The game being at Duke would normally be a boost on the side of Duke. But odds makers know Hansbrough plays VERY, VERY well AT Duke. (JJ and S. Williams loss on senior day when Hansbrough was a freshman was the most humiliating loss in Duke history IMO.) As sadistic / sick as it might be, the death of the UNC student body president will even be factored in by professional odds makers as something else for UNC to play for.


If as Bob Green said Duke is NOW a 2 point favorite there are a TON of people out there who think with Lawson, playing in memory of a fallen tarheel, on a court where Hansbrough has always played well, that UNC will win the game. Sure there would be even more if UNC was listed as a 6 to 10 point favorite. But you have to realize for Duke on their home court to ONLY be a two point favorite to ANYONE is basically calling them an underdog. Home court in gambling usually accounts for 4 to 6 points depending on your odds maker.

The last time I bet on Duke was the JJ and Shel senior day loss, so I never bet anymore, period. But if you think I'm wrong about the gambling side and who the so called experts think will win search the net for yourself. UNC is the exact type of team Duke should and has had problems with this season. My hope is they make UNC match up with them like they did in Chapel Hill and not the other way around.

[captmojo]

I don't gamble. Heck, I don't even play the lottery. I just prefer coming into the game as the underdog.

[Dukefan03]

I'm not saying UNC should be the favorite, I'm not saying they are the better team. But there are a ton of factors when it comes to making odds. Lawson's health was a HUGE factor in the last game and is a bit of a factor Saturday. The game being at Duke would normally be a boost on the side of Duke. But odds makers know Hansbrough plays VERY, VERY well AT Duke. (JJ and S. Williams loss on senior day when Hansbrough was a freshman was the most humiliating loss in Duke history IMO.) As sadistic / sick as it might be, the death of the UNC student body president will even be factored in by professional odds makers as something else for UNC to play for.


If as Bob Green said Duke is NOW a 2 point favorite there are a TON of people out there who think with Lawson, playing in memory of a fallen tarheel, on a court where Hansbrough has always played well, that UNC will win the game. Sure there would be even more if UNC was listed as a 6 to 10 point favorite. But you have to realize for Duke on their home court to ONLY be a two point favorite to ANYONE is basically calling them an underdog. Home court in gambling usually accounts for 4 to 6 points depending on your odds maker.

The last time I bet on Duke was the JJ and Shel senior day loss, so I never bet anymore, period. But if you think I'm wrong about the gambling side and who the so called experts think will win search the net for yourself. UNC is the exact type of team Duke should and has had problems with this season. My hope is they make UNC match up with them like they did in Chapel Hill and not the other way around.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Seriously, don't mean to be rude, but you have a neophyte's understanding of how the line is set and where Vegas stands on this game. Also, what ESPN/SI think about the game is complete irrelevant and Vegas will often play upon this public perception to make a bigger score.

[Troublemaker]

I'm not saying UNC should be the favorite, I'm not saying they are the better team. But there are a ton of factors when it comes to making odds. Lawson's health was a HUGE factor in the last game and is a bit of a factor Saturday. The game being at Duke would normally be a boost on the side of Duke. But odds makers know Hansbrough plays VERY, VERY well AT Duke. (JJ and S. Williams loss on senior day when Hansbrough was a freshman was the most humiliating loss in Duke history IMO.) As sadistic / sick as it might be, the death of the UNC student body president will even be factored in by professional odds makers as something else for UNC to play for.


If as Bob Green said Duke is NOW a 2 point favorite there are a TON of people out there who think with Lawson, playing in memory of a fallen tarheel, on a court where Hansbrough has always played well, that UNC will win the game. Sure there would be even more if UNC was listed as a 6 to 10 point favorite. But you have to realize for Duke on their home court to ONLY be a two point favorite to ANYONE is basically calling them an underdog. Home court in gambling usually accounts for 4 to 6 points depending on your odds maker.

The last time I bet on Duke was the JJ and Shel senior day loss, so I never bet anymore, period. But if you think I'm wrong about the gambling side and who the so called experts think will win search the net for yourself. UNC is the exact type of team Duke should and has had problems with this season. My hope is they make UNC match up with them like they did in Chapel Hill and not the other way around.

Your post is full of inaccuracies about gambling and how oddsmakers think. If I had time, I'd actually explain. But basically, you're already wrong. LVSC has Duke as a 2-pt favorite, not a 5-6 pt underdog. And Duke will remain the favorite or, at worst, the game will be a pick'em by tip.

[stals]

I don't think that Pomeroy factors injuries into the equation, merely results. As such, his prediction may not be worth a ton.

What injuries should be factored into this game?

[sagegrouse]

While the thought of a sage grouse having a "mindset" may be confusing to the traditional human, recent research cited below (including a Duke quote) points out that birds are very intelligent but use the clusters in the lower cortex to great advantage instead of the oversized neocortex of the mammalian species (esp. h. sapiens). I, for one, would rather just nibble the seeds, shoots and blooms off the purple sage and eat a few crawling critters every now and then for protein. But truthfully, most of my mental energy this time of year is in developing strategy for the sage grouse leks (I mean, that's March Madness!).

But I digress...

To determine the result of a basketball match, the teams play the game. Why would anyone except a bettor want to waste a lot of time doping out the results. Why not just watch the game? As Reagan used to say, "I am hopeful, but I never predict elections."

One reason, of course, is that sports writers and announcers have columns to prepare and air time to fill in anticipation of a big game, and they, by gum, are going to give their opinion. Not useful. OTOH, I find really useful the pre-game analysis that everyone on TV does (including Bilas) that talks to the key points of the game and then reviews the results at halftime (and sometimes at the end). I don't know why there isn't more analysis like this in the papers and the on-line columns.

Kornheiser opines that much of what columnists/ commentators do is ridiculous, such as speculating -- in October!! -- whether the Patriots will go undefeated. He also admits he does stupid stuff like that all the time -- because that's what sports writers do.

I don't see why we have to copy the sports writers. Isn't it enough to say, "Go To Hell, Carolina?"

sagegrouse

"... in the journal Nature Neuroscience Reviews, an international group of avian experts is issuing what amounts to a manifesto. Nearly everything written in anatomy textbooks about the brains of birds is wrong, they say. The avian brain is as complex, flexible and inventive as any mammalian brain, they argue, and it is time to adopt a more accurate nomenclature that reflects a new understanding of the anatomies of bird and mammal brains.

"'Names have a powerful influence on the experiments we do and the way we think,' said Dr. Erich D. Jarvis, a neuroscientist at Duke University and a leader of the Avian Brain Nomenclature Consortium. 'Old terminology has hindered scientific progress.'"

sagegrouse

[Uncle Drew]

To those who say I have no idea what I'm talking about I truly appreciate the constructive criticism. That being said, Vegas odds makers take a TON of factors into consideration when placing odds. It's their job to look at every angle and factor it all in. They even have local bookies in this area feeding them here say on things. I'm not suggesting they are attempting to fix the game or anything like that. But say a friend of Lawson gets told the ankle is almost 100% and a local bookie finds that out it tends to be a check mark in the UNC column. However in a rivalry game like Duke vs. UNC it's VERY hard to predict what will happen just for the bad blood and emotion of the people involved. Someone even said in the Roy vs. K reporting injurries thread that Dean Smith used to make his teams boo boos public so there was no "insider information" possibilities popping up.


All I'm saying is when a ton of cash gets bet on one team, which IMO will be placed on UNC the odds makers change the odds to get more people to take a chance on Duke. I hope Duke wins by 40 points and a ton of UNC fans (and run of the mill betters) lose cash hand over fist. I have yet to look at the odds, I'm going by what Bob Green typed earlier. But if Duke is at this moment a two point favorite at home that IS calling them the underdog by the odds makers. If anyone thinks odds makers just sit around a table and guess who's to be favored in any game you're nuts. And as their goal is to "sucker" people into betting on the eventual losing team they factor in every possible eqation they can into setting odds.

Amen Sagegrouse....Go To Hell Carolina Go To Hell!

[Indoor66]

While the thought of a sage grouse having a "mindset" may be confusing to the traditional human, recent research cited below (including a Duke quote) points out that birds are very intelligent but use the clusters in the lower cortex to great advantage instead of the oversized neocortex of the mammalian species (esp. h. sapiens). I, for one, would rather just nibble the seeds, shoots and blooms off the purple sage and eat a few crawling critters every now and then for protein. But truthfully, most of my mental energy this time of year is in developing strategy for the sage grouse leks (I mean, that's March Madness!).

But I digress...

To determine the result of a basketball match, the teams play the game. Why would anyone except a bettor want to waste a lot of time doping out the results. Why not just watch the game? As Reagan used to say, "I am hopeful, but I never predict elections."

One reason, of course, is that sports writers and announcers have columns to prepare and air time to fill in anticipation of a big game, and they, by gum, are going to give their opinion. Not useful. OTOH, I find really useful the pre-game analysis that everyone on TV does (including Bilas) that talks to the key points of the game and then reviews the results at halftime (and sometimes at the end). I don't know why there isn't more analysis like this in the papers and the on-line columns.

Kornheiser opines that much of what columnists/ commentators do is ridiculous, such as speculating -- in October!! -- whether the Patriots will go undefeated. He also admits he does stupid stuff like that all the time -- because that's what sports writers do.

I don't see why we have to copy the sports writers. Isn't it enough to say, "Go To Hell, Carolina?"

sagegrouse

"... in the journal Nature Neuroscience Reviews, an international group of avian experts is issuing what amounts to a manifesto. Nearly everything written in anatomy textbooks about the brains of birds is wrong, they say. The avian brain is as complex, flexible and inventive as any mammalian brain, they argue, and it is time to adopt a more accurate nomenclature that reflects a new understanding of the anatomies of bird and mammal brains.

"'Names have a powerful influence on the experiments we do and the way we think,' said Dr. Erich D. Jarvis, a neuroscientist at Duke University and a leader of the Avian Brain Nomenclature Consortium. 'Old terminology has hindered scientific progress.'"

sagegrouse

I completely agree. The mental masturbation that takes place prior to these games is insane. I want them to stop the verbal diarrhea! Let's just get on with it and play the game.

Sage, I have to tell you that I have hunted the notorious prairie chickens and they are the most stupid bird I have been around. Nothing meant to demean you - only point out the obvious about the Sage Grouse and all it's beauty.

[sagegrouse]

Sage, I have to tell you that I have hunted the notorious prairie chickens and they are the most stupid bird I have been around. Nothing meant to demean you - only point out the obvious about the Sage Grouse and all it's beauty.

Indoor66 (BTW, hunting indoors is dangerous):

You are confusing the magnificent Greater Sage Grouse (http://www.fws.gov/mountain-prairie/...ds/sagegrouse/) with the much smaller Greater Prairie Chicken (mostly in the Dakotas) and the Sharp-Tailed Grouse, a meadow-breeding bird whose widespread range extends from the Great Plains into the mountains (we have a bunch here).

The male Greater Sage Grouse (6.3 lbs.) is at least three times the size of these other birds. It remains in small flocks year-around, not just during breeding season, so you tend to see either 20 or zero (mostly the latter). It inhabits sagebrush country, of which NW Colorado has an abundance.

The Dusky Grouse (formerly known as Blue Grouse-- but that's another story) is common here in the alpine forests in the mountains in the winter and in the adjacent lowlands during breeding season. One was particularly fond of the petunias on my back patio.

I don't think you were hunting Sage Grouse, but I won't take it personally if you were.

sagegrouse

[77devil]

JJ and S. Williams loss on senior day when Hansbrough was a freshman was the most humiliating loss in Duke history IMO.

Not even close. You must be too young to have witnessed the squandered 8 point lead in 17 seconds in 1974-before the 3 point shot. No question it is the most humiliating loss in Duke history.

[Uncle Drew]

Not even close. You must be too young to have witnessed the squandered 8 point lead in 17 seconds in 1974-before the 3 point shot. No question it is the most humiliating loss in Duke history.

Sorry, the first Duke basketball game I ever watched was the 1978 loss to UK in the national championship. The record 30 point loss to UNLV was pretty humiliating. But at least they made it that far and if Hurley hadn't been running (no pun intended) off the court to the john every 10 minutes it could have been much closer.

In my book losing to a freshman led UNC squad on senior day for two of the greatest Duke players ever was FAR more humiliating than that. Next to UNC winning the title in 2005 I don't think I've ever felt worse after a game. My dad used to tell me after Duke lost the 42 Rose Bowl it felt like someone had died. Of course Pearl Harbor and the fact he was enlisting might have had something to do with that.

[SilkyJ]

Not even close. You must be too young to have witnessed the squandered 8 point lead in 17 seconds in 1974-before the 3 point shot. No question it is the most humiliating loss in Duke history.

well maybe if SOMEONE had cheered a little harder we wouldn't be having this discussion

[Bob Green]

Not even close. You must be too young to have witnessed the squandered 8 point lead in 17 seconds in 1974-before the 3 point shot. No question it is the most humiliating loss in Duke history.

I agree 100 percent. 1974 is the nadir of Duke basketball. But we all digress as it is not 1974 and tommorrow we are going to open up a can of whoop butt and take it to the tar heels.

[blueprofessor]

I completely agree. The mental masturbation that takes place prior to these games is insane. I want them to stop the verbal diarrhea! Let's just get on with it and play the game.

Sage, I have to tell you that I have hunted the notorious prairie chickens and they are the most stupid bird I have been around. Nothing meant to demean you - only point out the obvious about the Sage Grouse and all it's beauty.

************************************************** *********
...the fool hen ? My wife and I hunt sage grouse in Montana.They are well-disguised---you cannot see them 10' away.Must have pointing dogs. In rainy or windy days, they are as tough as Huns(not a racial slur,talking about the birds here!). They are big like honkers and can fly 50 mph.They are a lot like sharptails---and delicious if cooked properly.Late in the season, they bunch up and you cannot get close enough to get a clean shot.One near White Sulphur Springs,MT, was released with a transmitter---it did a loop of 25 miles.They do not like people.
Now, bluegrouse...that is a stupid bird. A pal in Montana caught one with his hands near Chico and then let it go.

I think the "sagegrouse" on DBR is no fool hen!
Agree about the UNC game--Let's play the game and whip their entitled butts.
GTH,C!
Best regards.

[Uncle Drew]

well maybe if SOMEONE had cheered a little harder we wouldn't be having this discussion

Silk, that litterally made me laugh out loud until it brought tears to my eyes. It's bad enough to find myself yelling at the refs or players on the TV screen when a game is live. I've found myself wanting to throw a remote through the screen watching a game on ESPN classic. I mean I realize no matter how hard I cheer for Duke or pull against the evil empire it does nothing to determine the outcome, but I do it anyway.


I don't know if I believe in karma per say, I'm Presbyterian after all; we're big into predestination. But do you ever think a game like the 1974 loss where Duke blew an eight point lead in 17 seconds allowed karma to be on their side when they came back in the famous "Gone In 54 Seconds" game at Maryland in 2001. (Or the Final Four for that matter?) And Laettners shot in 1992 that sent UK packing we all cherish. did that put karma on UK's side in 1998 when they came back against Duke in Tampa? Personally I think Makhtar Ndiaye standing on the scoring table after UNC beat Duke in the ACC tourney in 1998 beating his chest and taunting Duke fans jinxed them for several wonderful years.


Go To Hell Carolina Go To Hell X Infinity!!

[Rogue]

I liked The Daily Tar Heel predictions last game
I haven't seen their break down of this game, any word ?

I'm sure they still have the coaching advantage ... D U K E

[socaldukie]

http://sports.espn.go.com/videogames...ncb?id=3280518

[Uncle Drew]

http://sports.espn.go.com/videogames...ncb?id=3280518

SoCal, I LOOOOOOOOVE the outcome of the game. Is it possible to watch the game? Or is it just the still picture frame from the game?

[dukelifer]

http://sports.espn.go.com/videogames...ncb?id=3280518

Carolina shoots almost 60% , 63% from 3, outrebounds Duke by 5, has fewer turnovers and more steals and loses??? What would Roy say about that? He didn't coach well again?

[MChambers]

Are just trying to set the odds so that there are an equal number of bets on each side. If that happens, the oddsmakers make money.