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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA (Buckhead)

    Duke vs. UNC point spread

    I just went to Vegas.com (then ran multiple Google searches ) to find the spread on the game Saturday.

    All I got was a listing reading, "Points spreads have yet to be listed."

    Just looking for insight here from posters who are more in the know on Vegas, gambling and other activities (legal or illegal) than me, EarlJam.

    When do they usually post point spreads? Has anyone heard such info for Saturday's game?

    My guess is that UNC would be a 4-5 point favorite.

    -EarlJam

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    I used to be able to find the odds a little earlier using Bloomberg, but I don't have access to that anymore. Most of the sites don't post them much in advance.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greensboro, NC
    usatoday.com usually has the spreads listed somewhere on the sports page. I can't access the site at work to provide a link.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukiedevil View Post
    usatoday.com usually has the spreads listed somewhere on the sports page. I can't access the site at work to provide a link.
    Just checked and they don't have them posted yet on usatoday.com
    "There can BE only one."

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by EarlJam View Post
    I just went to Vegas.com (then ran multiple Google searches ) to find the spread on the game Saturday.

    All I got was a listing reading, "Points spreads have yet to be listed."

    Just looking for insight here from posters who are more in the know on Vegas, gambling and other activities (legal or illegal) than me, EarlJam.

    When do they usually post point spreads? Has anyone heard such info for Saturday's game?

    My guess is that UNC would be a 4-5 point favorite.

    -EarlJam
    Vegas point spreads frequently open within a point or two of the Sagarin Predictor ratings found here with 4 points factored in for home court advantage.

    Sagarin predictor has UNC at 94.16 and Duke at 93.92 for a difference of .24 points. Add in the 4.02 points for home court in favor of Duke and this method gives Duke a 3.78 point advantage.

    My guess is Duke by 2 when the line comes out.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Vegas point spreads frequently open within a point or two of the Sagarin Predictor ratings found here with 4 points factored in for home court advantage.

    Sagarin predictor has UNC at 94.16 and Duke at 93.92 for a difference of .24 points. Add in the 4.02 points for home court in favor of Duke and this method gives Duke a 3.78 point advantage.

    My guess is Duke by 2 when the line comes out.
    I agree with that guess. I was going to say something very close. I thought UNC by 4-5 was way off. I would guess Duke by anywhere from -1 to -2.5.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  7. #7
    Yeah, Duke will be the favorite. And it'll be around 3.5.

  8. #8

    Pomeroy Predicts Duke

    Score 91-85

  9. #9
    Hi,

    I'd expect UNC to be a 2 pt. favorite.

    Best regards,
    Jeffrey

  10. #10

    Odds

    I can guarantee that line will change the closer we get to game time. Most every writer and announcer I've heard from thinks UNC is the better team, has more to play for (where they get that I don't know, seems to me both teams are playing for almost the exact same thing.) and few are convinced with Duke's obvious match up problems with Hansbrough. Betters will place MUCH more money on UNC to win and / or beat the spread. By game day to even things out odds makers will have UNC a slight to 5 or 6 point favorite to get more people betting on Duke.


    For what it's worth my dad used to say he aught to bet $50 on UNC every Duke vs. UNC game. If Duke won he didn't mind losing the money and if UNC won at least he got paid.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by stals View Post
    Score 91-85
    I don't think that Pomeroy factors injuries into the equation, merely results. As such, his prediction may not be worth a ton.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Latta6970 View Post

    For what it's worth my dad used to say he aught to bet $50 on UNC every Duke vs. UNC game. If Duke won he didn't mind losing the money and if UNC won at least he got paid.
    I used to do that (bet against UNC that is) for the very same reason.

  13. #13
    UNC as 5 or 6 point favorites? No chance. UNC will neither start out as the favorite nor end as the favorite.

    I don't mean to be too argumentative since playing guess-the-spread is obviously a petty issue, but I know of no gambler that would predict UNC to be a favorite in this game. And it has nothing to do with whether I personally think Duke will win or not (although I DO happen to think Duke will win), and when the oddsmakers release the line, it will also not reflect whether THEY think Duke will win or not. Oddsmakers are just trying to balance the money, and there is no chance that THAT much money will flow towards UNC such that they become favorites.

    I foresee the line starting out Duke -3.5, ending around Duke -2, with almost 0% chance of UNC ending up as the favorite. Remember, Duke is an extremely public team (same with UNC), and people respect Cameron Indoor. Any line with UNC as the favorite will have too much money coming in on Duke.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA (Buckhead)
    Methinks, unfortunately, I was going with my "fears" when I thought UNC to be a 5-6 point favorite.

    I'm just scared, that's all.

    -EarlJam

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Duke is a 2 point favorite and the over/under is 163:

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/

    I could care less about covering the spread, a one point victory would be great!
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    UNC as 5 or 6 point favorites? No chance. UNC will neither start out as the favorite nor end as the favorite.

    I don't mean to be too argumentative since playing guess-the-spread is obviously a petty issue, but I know of no gambler that would predict UNC to be a favorite in this game. And it has nothing to do with whether I personally think Duke will win or not (although I DO happen to think Duke will win), and when the oddsmakers release the line, it will also not reflect whether THEY think Duke will win or not. Oddsmakers are just trying to balance the money, and there is no chance that THAT much money will flow towards UNC such that they become favorites.

    I foresee the line starting out Duke -3.5, ending around Duke -2, with almost 0% chance of UNC ending up as the favorite. Remember, Duke is an extremely public team (same with UNC), and people respect Cameron Indoor. Any line with UNC as the favorite will have too much money coming in on Duke.
    Agreed 100%. There's no way that UNC would be favored to win by 5-6. I'd say the line will end up settling at Duke -4. With an O/U somewhere around 172-176.

  17. #17

    take the points

    I'm a little late, but as I was reading the thread I was thinking I would take whichever team they were going to give me points for. I think it is a toss-up...I'll take the points. I don't know anything about point spreads or gambling, but I would have assumed the #1 team in the nation would be the favorite in most people's minds. I'm surprised duke is a favorite by 2 points.

    It was interesting that home court was worth 4 points in general. Curious what it is in other sports.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham
    Most sites don't put spreads up until the day of the game. And given UNC's "abundance" of injuries, I wouldn't expect most sites to have them up until tomorrow.

    As much as common knowledge would say Duke would be the favorite, Duke was a 4 point underdog in Chapel Hill without Lawson. Given that UNC is now #1 in the nation and has added Lawson back into the rotation, I wouldn't expect Duke to be the favorite. Especially when Chapel Hill is a 10-minute bus ride away.


    My guess is UNC will be a 1.5 - 2.5 point favorite.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Summit County, Colo.
    Bloomberg is also reporting Duke -2 and over/under 163.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Close to the Gothic Playground!

    No time for fear, Earl Jam.

    Quote Originally Posted by EarlJam View Post
    Methinks, unfortunately, I was going with my "fears" when I thought UNC to be a 5-6 point favorite.

    I'm just scared, that's all.

    -EarlJam
    DUDE! This is the game, the one we are here for! It's time to pull up the straps and prepare to open the can of whoop... on the Holes! No time for fear or even for thinking about it, it's time to send those boys to HELL!

    Let's go!

    dth.

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