Overachievers and Underachievers in the ACC

[gw67]

I was looking through the ACC weekly release (see link) and I was reminded that there have been a number of overachievers as well as underachievers this year in the ACC.

http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hot...weekly-release

The list may change in the next two weeks but my thoughts are as follows:

Overachievers

- Miami: The ACC sportswriters picked them to finish last. They are playing very well and they may finish in the top four of the league.
- Wake: They are very young and have had to overcome the effects of losing their coach but they should finish in the middle of the conference. The sage ACC sportswriters picked them for 11th.
- Several players have overachieved, IMO, including Douglas of FSU, Nelson of Duke, Vasquez of Md, Johnson of Wake and McFarland of Wake.

Underachievers

- N.C.State: The Pack was picked to finish 3rd by the ACC sportswriters. They are currently in 11th and haven’t been able to shake their season-long doldrums.
- Virginia: The Cavaliers were picked to finish 5th and have been bringing up the rear for the past few weeks. Singletary can only carry them so far.
- Players who have not performed up to expectations include Costner of N.C.State, Clinch of Georgia Tech and some who have been hurt, including Lawson of UNC and Mays of Clemson.

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb...102107aab.html

gw67

[2535Miles]

- Several players have overachieved, IMO, including Douglas of FSU, Nelson of Duke, Vasquez of Md, Johnson of Wake and McFarland of Wake.

I'm curious to why you think Nelson is overachieving. His offensive numbers are very similar to last year and appear to show average improvement from Junior to Senior season. Here's a few:
- 2006/07: 31.9 MPG, .478% FG, 14.1 PPG
- 2007/08: 31.1 MPG, .507% FG, 15.3 PPG

Can you tell us what influenced your thoughts?

[pfrduke]

I would call Vazquez an "achiever," not an over-achiever. I think he was expected to be the focal point of the offense, and while he's scored a lot of points, he's also turned the ball over with some frequency, and his shooting is only so-so (particularly from outside). Not to say he hasn't been good, because he has. But he's performed about how I would have expected him to this year.

Osby, on the other hand, would definitely be an over-achiever in my book. The defense and rebounding were not surprising, but the scoring in the post has been a big surprise.

[gw67]

My observation is based on a couple of thoughts. First, I believe that most Duke fans expected Henderson, Singler and Smith to lead the team this year with Nelson in a supporting role. Instead, Nelson leads the team in scoring at 17.7ppg in ACC games, is Duke's top rebounder, is 2nd in assists and leads in steals. This is in addition to good defensive play and a leadership role on a team that has done better than many of us expected. I suspect that he will be a first team All ACC selection and probably runnerup to Hansbrough in the ACC POY voting. This is certainly more than I expected from the senior and is why I consider him an overachiever. I note that the ACC sportswriters did not see him as a 1st team selection much less a possibility for ACC POY.

gw67

[Bluedog]

I'm curious to why you think Nelson is overachieving. His offensive numbers are very similar to last year and appear to show average improvement from Junior to Senior season. Here's a few:
- 2006/07: 31.9 MPG, .478% FG, 14.1 PPG
- 2007/08: 31.1 MPG, .507% FG, 15.3 PPG

Can you tell us what influenced your thoughts?

In regards to Nelson, I think his leadership on the first place team in the ACC and a probable ACC 1st team selection shows that he is overachieving slightly. He was NOT selected to the All-ACC team in the pre-season, and I would be absolutely shocked if he isn't selected post-season. Moreover, assuming Duke finishes atop the ACC, I would expect Nelson to win ACC POY if Hansblahblah didn't exist. I don't think many people would have predicted that pre-season, so that probably shows he's exceeding expectations a bit.

Edit: gw67 beat me to it!

[JasonEvans]

I believe that most Duke fans expected Henderson, Singler and Smith to lead the team this year with Nelson in a supporting role.

Smith?!?!? Not so sure about that. Did you mean Paulus or Scheyer?

Some stats regarding Nelson this year--

Scoring - up 8.5% vs. last season
Rebounding - up 11.1% vs. last season
Assists - up 55.5% vs. last season
Turnovers- DOWN 4% vs. last season
Steals- up 38.4% vs. last season

All this while actually playing slightly less minutes on what is clearly a more talented and better team than last year's Blue Devils.

I might also add that his FG% and 3FG% are career highs. His FT% is up versus last year too.

As GW pointed out, he has also been at his best in ACC games, which matters a LOT!

It is impossible not to say that Markie is better this season than last season, by some large margins. It takes a lot more than looking at points-per-game to read this. I agree that he is very likely to be up near the top of the POY voting and an All-ACC 1st teamer too. I doubt many expected him to be that kind of player at the beginning of this year.

Oh, as Duke's "stopper" he will certainly be one of the candidates for defensive player of the year too.

--Jason "it has taken some time, but Markie is having the career so many of us thought he would when he first came to Duke" Evans

[SilkyJ]

My observation is based on a couple of thoughts. First, I believe that most Duke fans expected Henderson, Singler and Smith to lead the team this year with Nelson in a supporting role.

gw67

Yea right. "most duke fans" thought Nelson would be in a supporting role. Come on.

He was the Leading returning scorer, rebounder, defender without a doubt. He was a returning captain and the lone senior. I NEVER EVER EVER EVER thought nelson would be a supporter.

There were SOME (crazy) people on this board who thought that and I had to spend all summer yelling that you guys were CRAZY. What in the world made you guys think he would have a supporting role??

I would call Vazquez an "achiever," not an over-achiever. I think he was expected to be the focal point of the offense, and while he's scored a lot of points, he's also turned the ball over with some frequency, and his shooting is only so-so (particularly from outside). Not to say he hasn't been good, because he has. But he's performed about how I would have expected him to this year.

Osby, on the other hand, would definitely be an over-achiever in my book. The defense and rebounding were not surprising, but the scoring in the post has been a big surprise.

agreed on both players. Osby has definitely surpassed expectations and gist is playing well too, tho I think that was much more expected.

[gw67]

pfrduke - I follow the Terps closely and I didn't expect Vasquez to be averaging 17.6 ppg, 7.4 apg and 6.2 rpg in ACC games. He commits too many turnovers and his outside shooting is spotty, to be generous, but his points, assists, rebounds, steals and defensive play against Lawson and Rice has exceeded my expectations. You are right about Osby. I figured he would lose his starting position to Dupree based on what I read but he has improved a lot.

gw67

[2535Miles]

Thanks for everyone's feedback. I'd still like to think that Nelson isn't overachieving. It seems that he's fitting into his role as a Senior and continuing to improve. I hope the trend continues through March!

P.S. 9F9F9F

[gw67]

jason - You did a better job than I at describing his improvement this year. I was going to write Paulus (vice Smith) but he was thrown under the bus by posters on a pretty regular basis last summer and I typed Smith without thinking. I should have stopped at Henderson and Singler.

gw67

[RelativeWays]

What about Osby as an overachiever? He was a bench warmer last year and is now an integral part of the twerps.
You could also make arguments for Scheyer and Green as overachievers of sorts. They've performed their 6 man roles pretty well.

[sandinmyshoes]

Right now, I'd say UNC's Quintin Thomas is the Over Achiever of the year. To paraphrase an old saying, "Some players have adequacy thrust upon them."

[jimsumner]

DeMarcus Nelson was honorable mention All-ACC last season for a .500 ACC team.

This season he projects as first-team All-ACC and may well make second or third team All-America for an NCAA 1 or 2 seed.

Hard to argue that there hasn't been significant improvement.

[CDu]

DeMarcus Nelson was honorable mention All-ACC last season for a .500 ACC team.

This season he projects as first-team All-ACC and may well make second or third team All-America for an NCAA 1 or 2 seed.

Hard to argue that there hasn't been significant improvement.

There's a difference between significant improvement and overachieving. Nelson has clearly shown significant improvement. I don't know that it's accurate to say he has overachieved. But, that's (a) a semantics argument and (b) entirely dependent on what your perception of his abilities are.

[mapei]

One could argue that he has underachieved for his career until this year, and that he is finally playing to expectations - pretty much what Jason said in his signature line.

[gofurman]

"- Players who have not performed up to expectations include Costner of N.C.State, Clinch of Georgia Tech and some who have been hurt, including Lawson of UNC and Mays of Clemson."

agree that Mays gets a pass for injuries - pretty clear that he can hardly hold the ball with his hurt hand.

go duke go tigers

[gw67]

One could also lump Virginia Tech into the overachiever (doing better than was expected) category. The ACC sportswriters picked them for 10th and they keep winning. It is interesting that the three teams who got no love from the ACC sportswriters, Tech, Miami and Wake, are playing much better than predicted. It seems to me that Greenburg, Haith and Gaudio should get some support for COY.

gw67

[Carlos]

What about Osby as an overachiever? He was a bench warmer last year and is now an integral part of the twerps.

I wouldn't go so far as to call Osby a benchwarmer last year. He played double digit minutes on a team that was very deep in the frontcourt.

A few weeks ago I would have joined in the "Gist is playing well" comments but he's been playing pretty poorly ever since he dropped 30 on the Wuffies. Since that time he went 3-11 for 9 points against Duke, 3-8 for 7 points against VaTech, and 3-11 for 10 points against Miami. He did play well against FSU which, not coincidentally, was also the only win in those last 4 games.