First off, let me preface by saying that I can't help with the "finding a place that isn't packed." If you want to see a Duke game out here in a bar, it has to be a big sports bar, generally.
The places I would recommend are either Norton's Vault in the financial district (500 Sacramento St, is the address) or Bayside Sports bar in the Marina (1787 Union St). The Bus Stop (1901 Union St) is another option, and it is down the street a few blocks from Bayside.
I have never been to norton's vault to watch a duke game, but I know other people do. I prefer the other two places, but then again I live close to them, whereas Norton's vault will be closer to the address you gave.
If you want to play it by ear, feel free to PM me and we can exchange contact info and I can help you find a good spot to watch the game based on where the crowds are that day (and maybe where the Alumni Network is officially or unofficially watching the game). I am friends with two of the alumni coordinators out here and am definitely a big "enabler" in terms of getting people together to watch games in the area (young alumni, mostly).