ACC Bubble Watch

[CDu]

Well, Clemson and Maryland didn't lock up spots, as they virtually would have with wins this week. Losing to FSU and Va Tech, respectively, made their lives a little more difficult. Miami did themselves a big solid, and Wake didn't play.

Clemson (18-7, 7-5, RPI 25): They've got wins @Miss St and against Purdue, which should help. But that's all they've done against the RPI top 50. They need two more wins and a solid showing in the ACC tourney to solidify their spot. They have very winnable games against the Techs, but tough matchups with Miami and @Maryland. They should be okay though, with that RPI and those OOC wins.

Maryland (17-10, 7-5, RPI 62): That RPI is struggling and the loss to American hurts (the VCU and Ohio losses don't look so bad now). Being 6-9 against the RPI top 100 doesn't help. They probably need to get to 10 wins to be safe, or knock off either Duke or UNC in the ACC tourney. They have must-win games against UVa and @Wake. If they lose either of those, they put themselves on the outside looking in.

Miami (17-7, 5-6, RPI 28): The strong RPI and wins @Miss St and against Duke and Clemson look good. They're 3-2 against the RPI top-50, which is also good. If they can get to 9-7 in conference or 8-8 and with a solid showing in the ACC tourney, they're set. A win against either Maryland or Clemson down the stretch would help as well. They have three very winnable games down the stretch (UVa, BC, and @FSU). So despite their below-.500 ACC record right now, they may be in decent shape.

Wake (16-8, 6-5, RPI 64): They have the most work to do. Wins against BYU and Duke look good, but they have a low RPI and a terrible road record. If they can beat the Techs on the road and hold court against NC St, they have a chance to get to 10 ACC wins, which would probably be enough. But I don't like their chances of sweeping the Techs on the road.

Because Clemson, Maryland, and Miami each play the other two, we should be pretty much assured of getting at least four teams in (somebody has to win those games). I think Clemson is in pretty solid shape unless they completely fold. If Miami can sweep the bottom feeders, they make a very strong case. Maryland needs to shake off the bad game and beat one of Miami and Clemson and beat Wake and UVa to solidify their case. And Wake is always an outlier. There's a decent chance we'll get five teams in.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

Well, Clemson and Maryland didn't lock up spots, as they virtually would have with wins this week. Losing to FSU and Va Tech, respectively, made their lives a little more difficult. Miami did themselves a big solid, and Wake didn't play.

Clemson (18-7, 7-5, RPI 25): They've got wins @Miss St and against Purdue, which should help. But that's all they've done against the RPI top 50. They need two more wins and a solid showing in the ACC tourney to solidify their spot. They have very winnable games against the Techs, but tough matchups with Miami and @Maryland. They should be okay though, with that RPI and those OOC wins.

Maryland (17-10, 7-5, RPI 62): That RPI is struggling and the loss to American hurts (the VCU and Ohio losses don't look so bad now). Being 6-9 against the RPI top 100 doesn't help. They probably need to get to 10 wins to be safe, or knock off either Duke or UNC in the ACC tourney. They have must-win games against UVa and @Wake. If they lose either of those, they put themselves on the outside looking in.

Miami (17-7, 5-6, RPI 28): The strong RPI and wins @Miss St and against Duke and Clemson look good. They're 3-2 against the RPI top-50, which is also good. If they can get to 9-7 in conference or 8-8 and with a solid showing in the ACC tourney, they're set. A win against either Maryland or Clemson down the stretch would help as well. They have three very winnable games down the stretch (UVa, BC, and @FSU). So despite their below-.500 ACC record right now, they may be in decent shape.

Wake (16-8, 6-5, RPI 64): They have the most work to do. Wins against BYU and Duke look good, but they have a low RPI and a terrible road record. If they can beat the Techs on the road and hold court against NC St, they have a chance to get to 10 ACC wins, which would probably be enough. But I don't like their chances of sweeping the Techs on the road.

Because Clemson, Maryland, and Miami each play the other two, we should be pretty much assured of getting at least four teams in (somebody has to win those games). I think Clemson is in pretty solid shape unless they completely fold. If Miami can sweep the bottom feeders, they make a very strong case. Maryland needs to shake off the bad game and beat one of Miami and Clemson and beat Wake and UVa to solidify their case. And Wake is always an outlier. There's a decent chance we'll get five teams in.

Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

[CDu]

Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. If Miami wins against Maryland at home this weekend, then Miami's resume looks substantially better than Maryland's (they'd have better wins than Maryland, a better overall record, a nearly identical ACC record, and a better RPI). And I'd give Miami a decent chance of winning at home against Maryland.

I agree that Clemson is in pretty good shape. But if they lose three of their last four and flame out in the ACCs, they might be out. I think they'll avoid such a collapse and make it, but it's a definite possibility. I can easily see a situation in which Miami AND Maryland make it, along with Clemson. And it wouldn't take a crazy chain of events, either. Wake is most likely not going to make it. But they aren't out yet. It's not a clear picture at all right now.

[CDu]

Miami just made its case a lot stronger. I'd put them ahead of Maryland now as the 4th team in line for the tourney. They're 19-7, 6-6 in the ACC, and their RPI is going to be in the mid-20s, with wins over Duke, Miss St, Maryland, and Clemson, and only one bad loss (to Winthrop). If they win at home against UVa and BC and beat FSU on the road (and don't choke against a bottom-feeder in the ACC tourney), I think they're in.

Clemson doesn't play, so their situation hasn't changed. They need two wins out of their last four (Miami, @Maryland, @Ga Tech, Va Tech) and a win in the ACC tourney to make themselves comfortable.

Maryland has not done themselves any favors this week. They're now in virtually the same spot as Wake: one really nice win, but a mediocre conference record and very mediocre RPI. They could REALLY use a win against Clemson. But either way, I think they pretty much have to beat Wake or Clemson and UVa, and not faceplant in the ACC tourney. Winning all three down the stretch would really help, too.

Wake has a chance to really strengthen their case at UNC. I don't think that'll happen. If they don't, they probably need to beat Maryland and win against the last three (@Va Tech, @Ga Tech, vs NC St). Their poor road record makes them a questionable selection, so they have a little more to do than Maryland despite similar RPI and conference records.

With Miami's win today, the odds of the ACC getting five teams in just jumped dramatically. I think we'll get five.

[arnie]

Maryland and Clemson are in. Wake and Miami are out.

That doesn't make any sense to me. Even prior to yesterday, Miami appears stronger than Maryland. I'm still thinking we will get 5 teams after initially wondering if we would get more than 2.

[CDu]

That doesn't make any sense to me. Even prior to yesterday, Miami appears stronger than Maryland. I'm still thinking we will get 5 teams after initially wondering if we would get more than 2.

Agreed. Any statement about Maryland being in ahead of Miami is based solely on ACC record and holding on to appearances as of January. With the win yesterday, Miami should be clearly ahead of Maryland. Better record, better wins, fewer bad losses, better head-to-head, MUCH better RPI, and even now a similar ACC record.

I think we'll end up with five teams, and maybe six (if Wake can shock the world with a road win at UNC).

[CDu]

I disagree a bit with DBR's statement that eight teams are fighting for at-large bids. I think it is very generous to suggest that FSU and Va Tech have a shot at an at large bid.

FSU is in the 80s in RPI, has only two quality wins (Clemson and @UF) and has two bad losses. They're 6-10 against the RPI top-100. I don't think 8-8 in conference is nearly enough to get them in. There are just too many teams in front of them.

Va Tech has no quality wins at all, and has two bad losses. Their solid ACC record is due to the fact that they've played probably the easiest schedule in the ACC this year. They've yet to face Clemson, and they only played Duke and UNC once (losing both). Their only nice in-conference wins are against Maryland, which is more of a condemnation of Maryland than it is a feather in Va Tech's cap. They're 4-9 against the RPI top-100, and 0-5 against the RPI top-50. Unless they get to 10-6, they don't have a shot at an at-large bid. Again, there are too many teams with better profiles. Even at 10-6, I'd question their chances.

Ultimately, I think FSU will lose to UNC and Va Tech will lose @Clemson and make the arguments for them moot. We'll probably get five teams in, with Maryland, Miami, and Wake Forest battling for those last two spots.

[pfrduke]

Agreed. Any statement about Maryland being in ahead of Miami is based solely on ACC record and holding on to appearances as of January. With the win yesterday, Miami should be clearly ahead of Maryland. Better record, better wins, fewer bad losses, better head-to-head, MUCH better RPI, and even now a similar ACC record.

I think we'll end up with five teams, and maybe six (if Wake can shock the world with a road win at UNC).

While a win at UNC would be a big boost, I'm not sure it's necessary. What is more necessary is that Wake win all its other games. If they beat Maryland, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and NC State, they'll be 20-9 overall, 10-6 in conference, with wins in 7 of their last 8 games. Yes, they don't have a lot of high quality wins (Miami, Duke, and (if they win) Maryland are it), but I would like to think 10-6 in the ACC can still get you into the NCAAs.

[CDu]

While a win at UNC would be a big boost, I'm not sure it's necessary. What is more necessary is that Wake win all its other games. If they beat Maryland, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and NC State, they'll be 20-9 overall, 10-6 in conference, with wins in 7 of their last 8 games. Yes, they don't have a lot of high quality wins (Miami, Duke, and (if they win) Maryland are it), but I would like to think 10-6 in the ACC can still get you into the NCAAs.

Agreed. I think Wake and Maryland are now battling for one spot. If Wake does beat UNC, they're in. Note that, if they beat Maryland again, that would effectively make the Maryand win not that exciting. Maryland would then be a team in the 70s of the RPI and probably falling off the bubble. Wake still needs that win, but it's less impressive. Unless Wake beats UNC, the winner of the Wake/Maryland game will stay on the bubble, and the loser will likely be out.

Miami just needs to get to 9-7 in conference. They have the shiny RPI and a solid set of quality wins and only two somewhat bad losses (BC, Winthrop). They have to beat BC, FSU, and UVa to make themselves comfortable, or knock of Clemson and win two of those other three. But the way they've been playing, that's a very reasonable expectation.

[dukeblue1215]

could there be a chance that the acc gets 6 in? With clemson and miami up there with good RPIs there is a very good chance they will be in, but if wake can beat unc and maryland they might get themselves in as well, and then i have a strong feeling maryland will make a run in the acc tournament similar to nc states last year. If all of that happens (which it probably won't) is it possible to get 6 teams in?

[Olympic Fan]

I pretty much agree with your evaluation.

Obviously, Duke and UNC are in and are playing for No. 1 seeds -- probably one will get a No. 1 and the other a No. 2.

I think Clemson and Miami are in pretty good shape. Both are in position to make the field by winning at home -- and neither has a UNC or Duke to beat.

That leaves Maryand and Wake Forest -- two teams that really have some work to do. Maryland ought to remind us of how quickly things can change -- a week ago, they were a solid third in the league and appeared to be in great shape. As for Wake, I don't think they have to beat UNC in Chapel Hill today to get in, but they've got Maryland in Winston Thursday night -- that one might be life or death for both teams.

I have a friend who's an NC State fan who insists they can still qualify for an at large bid. His reasoning is that with a win today at Virginia (possible), followed by a homecourt win over FSU (also possible), the Pack would have some momentum when Duke visits Feb. 27. Win that, then beat Wake in Winston and the Pack would be 19-11, 8-8 ... win two in the ACC Tournament and it's 21-12 on Selection Sunday with a strong finish.

I had to admit that his scenario would indeed put State in the discussion for an at-large bid -- the problem was supposing that the Pack had shown any capability of stringing together the six strong games in a row it would take to make his dream a reality.

No, I also think the ACC will get five -- Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami and the winner of Thursday night's Wake-Maryland game.

PS Jerry Palm's bracketology Friday had the ACC with six teams (Wake,Miami and Maryland) ... Joe Lunardi said Saturday night that his bracket would hve five ACC teams Monday -- he doesn't have Wake at the moment.

[CDu]

could there be a chance that the acc gets 6 in? With clemson and miami up there with good RPIs there is a very good chance they will be in, but if wake can beat unc and maryland they might get themselves in as well, and then i have a strong feeling maryland will make a run in the acc tournament similar to nc states last year. If all of that happens (which it probably won't) is it possible to get 6 teams in?

There is certainly a chance, but it's not likely. Basically, you'd have to have something like the following happen: Maryland would need to beat Wake, Clemson, and UVa to get to 20-11 and 10-6; Clemson would need to beat Miami, Ga Tech, and Va Tech to get to 21-8 and 10-6; Miami would need to beat BC, FSU, and UVa to get to 20-8 and 9-7; and Wake would have to beat UNC, Va Tech, Ga Tech, and NC State to get to 20-9 and 10-6. There could be other iterations, but it'd get really complicated. And even then, it's very possible that one of those teams could get left out in the cold.

I think that the most likely outcome will be the ACC getting five teams in the tourney. There's a chance we could get unlucky as a conference and only get four (if there are some bad losses down the stretch), and there's an outside chance that we could get six. I'd say four is more likely than six, but both are possible. And again, I think five is more likely than either four or six.

The other thing to consider is that we're assuming no automatic bids go to teams that wouldn't get at-large bids. If that happens, the likelihood of getting only four teams increases dramatically.

[CDu]

I pretty much agree with your evaluation.

Obviously, Duke and UNC are in and are playing for No. 1 seeds -- probably one will get a No. 1 and the other a No. 2.

I think Clemson and Miami are in pretty good shape. Both are in position to make the field by winning at home -- and neither has a UNC or Duke to beat.

That leaves Maryand and Wake Forest -- two teams that really have some work to do. Maryland ought to remind us of how quickly things can change -- a week ago, they were a solid third in the league and appeared to be in great shape. As for Wake, I don't think they have to beat UNC in Chapel Hill today to get in, but they've got Maryland in Winston Thursday night -- that one might be life or death for both teams.

I have a friend who's an NC State fan who insists they can still qualify for an at large bid. His reasoning is that with a win today at Virginia (possible), followed by a homecourt win over FSU (also possible), the Pack would have some momentum when Duke visits Feb. 27. Win that, then beat Wake in Winston and the Pack would be 19-11, 8-8 ... win two in the ACC Tournament and it's 21-12 on Selection Sunday with a strong finish.

I had to admit that his scenario would indeed put State in the discussion for an at-large bid -- the problem was supposing that the Pack had shown any capability of stringing together the six strong games in a row it would take to make his dream a reality.

No, I also think the ACC will get five -- Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami and the winner of Thursday night's Wake-Maryland game.

PS Jerry Palm's bracketology Friday had the ACC with six teams (Wake,Miami and Maryland) ... Joe Lunardi said Saturday night that his bracket would hve five ACC teams Monday -- he doesn't have Wake at the moment.

Yeah, if you're going to include FSU as having a shot, then I think you have to include NC State as well. NC State has a better RPI, better record against the RPI top-100, a similar conference record despite a tougher ACC schedule, and they actually have a slightly easier path to 8-8 in the conference. That said, I don't think either one will get to 8-8, so it's going to wind up being a moot point.

I could see either five or six teams at this point. I'm surprised that he's giving such love to Maryland (had them as a #8 and Wake not even on the board) despite such similar profiles. I guess the feather in Maryland's cap to this point is that they have a big-time road win, while Wake pretty much can't win on the road.

I think ultimately it'll be Maryland, Clemson, and Miami joining Duke and UNC, because Wake is going to stumble against a lesser team on the road and lose to UNC on the road. If they beat Maryland, they keep it interesting, but I agree with you that that game is very likely to be an "in or out" game for the two teams.

[pfrduke]

So much for NC State making a run over the last 6 games. 17 turnovers and only 18 points in the first half at the JPJ. Ugh. The Pack have to be in the discussion for most disappointing teams in the country this season.

[dukie8]

So much for NC State making a run over the last 6 games. 17 turnovers and only 18 points in the first half at the JPJ. Ugh. The Pack have to be in the discussion for most disappointing teams in the country this season.

i think that's a fair statement. i thought kentucky had locked it up about a month ago but there's still time for kentucky to salvage its season. nc state's is done.

[CDu]

i think that's a fair statement. i thought kentucky had locked it up about a month ago but there's still time for kentucky to salvage its season. nc state's is done.

Agreed. State's season has basically been done since the Clemson game, but this made it official.

[Bob Green]

Maryland @ Wake Forest on Thursday is the marquee match-up of the week in terms of the post season picture. However, I find two other games intriguing: Miami @ Clemson on Tuesday and Clemson @ Maryland on Sunday. Clemson still has some work to accomplish in my opinion. If they were to drop both games this week and fall to 7-7/19-9 going into the last week of the regular season, the pressure would definitely be on for their games against Georgia Tech in Atlanta and at home against Virginia Tech. A 1-3 or 0-4 finish to the regular season could spell disaster for the Tigers.

IMO, the ACC will send five teams to the tournament but teams 3, 4, & 5 are very fluid at the moment with five teams competing for three slots:

	ACC	Overall
UNC	11-2	26-2
Duke	10-2	23-3
Clemson	7-5	19-7
MD	7-6	17-11
VT	7-6	16-11
Miami	6-6	19-7
WF	6-6	16-9

While it is easy to dismiss Virginia Tech (at least for me), their final three games are home against Boston College, home against Wake Forest, and @ Clemson. The Hokies could finish 10-6/19-11. A strong showing in the ACC Tournament and ...who knows?

FWIW, I believe the five teams will be: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Maryland and Miami, but the last two weeks of the regular season and the ACC Tournament will see much position shifting for teams three though seven. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are not going to roll over and die without a fight.

[gw67]

Bob – I agree that the next two weeks and the ACC tourney should be very competitive for the five teams that are in contention for spots 3-5 in the league standing. I think a likely scenario is that all five teams win some and lose some and that you wind up with three teams with 9-7 records and the other two with 8-8 records. At this point in the season, I like Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech to make it to 9-7 with the Terps having a slim chance. Miami looked very strong against Maryland. They valued the ball and their big men toyed with Gist and Osby. Clemson needs to win one of Miami, Maryland and VT to finish 2-2 and 9-7 overall. That may not be easy for the Tigers. I don’t think that Tech is a very good team but, like Virginia last year, they may squeeze into the top of the league standings. It is clear to any Terps’ fan that their team is running on fumes. I’ve been saying all year that they need 2-3 of their freshmen to step up and support the starters. It is pretty clear that it isn’t going to happen this year. I don’t know how the wizards down in Carolina at the ACC office will figure out who gets the byes in the ACC tourney but, in any case, it should be a great tournament. Unfortunately, I am leaving this Saturday to go halfway around the world for two weeks and the combination of the time change and work will keep me from enjoying the last week of the season. I am scheduled to arrive back home on the second day of the ACC tournament so I should be able to see many of the tournament games.

gw67

[CDu]

Bob – I agree that the next two weeks and the ACC tourney should be very competitive for the five teams that are in contention for spots 3-5 in the league standing. I think a likely scenario is that all five teams win some and lose some and that you wind up with three teams with 9-7 records and the other two with 8-8 records. At this point in the season, I like Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech to make it to 9-7 with the Terps having a slim chance. Miami looked very strong against Maryland. They valued the ball and their big men toyed with Gist and Osby. Clemson needs to win one of Miami, Maryland and VT to finish 2-2 and 9-7 overall. That may not be easy for the Tigers. I don’t think that Tech is a very good team but, like Virginia last year, they may squeeze into the top of the league standings. It is clear to any Terps’ fan that their team is running on fumes. I’ve been saying all year that they need 2-3 of their freshmen to step up and support the starters. It is pretty clear that it isn’t going to happen this year. I don’t know how the wizards down in Carolina at the ACC office will figure out who gets the byes in the ACC tourney but, in any case, it should be a great tournament. Unfortunately, I am leaving this Saturday to go halfway around the world for two weeks and the combination of the time change and work will keep me from enjoying the last week of the season. I am scheduled to arrive back home on the second day of the ACC tournament so I should be able to see many of the tournament games.

gw67

Wake's chances of going 9-7 depend on their ability to win at least once on the road against a tough home team (the Techs). They've not won on the road but twice all year, and it was against FSU and Iowa (two bottom feeders). If they don't beat Maryland at home, they aren't going to get to 9-7 and they'll be on the outside looking in for a bid.

Maryland has two tough games and one game that should be easy (UVa). The Wake game is pretty crucial for them. If they win that one, they can sneak in with a 9-7 mark by beating UVa. But I agree - they haven't looked so hot recently, and may be wearing down.

Miami has the easiest path to 9-7, even though they have the fewest wins. Home against UVa and BC and on the road against FSU are all very winnable games for them. If they win those, they should be in good shape.

Clemson's road is not easy. They have Miami, @Maryland, @Ga Tech, and Va Tech. If they can beat Miami, they're in good shape. If they can't, it's going to be an interesting last few games for a team that has a habit of late-season collapses.

Ultimately, I think Maryland will bounce back and beat Wake at Wake, and it'll be Clemson, Miami, and Maryland getting bids. Wake will lose the Maryland game and at least one of the road games against the Techs and push themselves off the bubble.

[Bob Green]

Virginia Tech won and improved to 8-6 in the ACC with a 19 point smackdown of Boston College. Next, the Hokies have to face Wake Forest and then travel to Clemson. The last two weeks of the season are going to be interesting. The Miami @ Clemson game on Wednesday and Maryland @ Wake Forest game on Thursday will have major post season implications. For the record, I'm picking Miami and Wake Forest to win.