This look-in is a bit early, but I am getting married Saturday and suspect I may not find much more time before the game to get this down.
This game jumps out at me as a big danger game. Wake Forest has the profile of a team that we have more trouble forcing our game on. While they don't shoot terrifically well (eFG=48.6%, 220th), they are a TO-strong team. The offense generates TOs on 19.6% of possessions (77th) and the defense generates them 25.3% of the time (16th!). TOs are our strength and is well-correlated to our success so far. If we can't create our game, and have an off shooting night (like large stretches lately), we could be in for a long night. Combine that with WFU's 13-1 home and 1-7 away records, and you clearly see a trend favoring their better stats at home. Coming off an emotional stretch of games and heading back out on the road for the furthest trip (even though its just down in Winston) since the first Maryland game back on 1/27, we could be in for an upset.
And, I don't ever want to say a loss is a good thing, but no other team in the country has just one loss - only Memphis has less than two losses so far. Our SOS is rated 8 (Pom), 5 (RPI) and 20 (Sag). At some point, you have to ask yourself, is Duke really that much better than even most elite teams this year? Or are we likely to have another couple of losses before the Big Dance? Mind you, no team has ever won the whole enchilada with just one loss. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Duke will be ripe for an upset in the next few weeks, and this one has all the markings if you ask me.
And don't worry about my watching the game post-nuptials. The flight to Tahiti doesn't leave until Monday.