Dork polls: #1 Sagarin, #3 Pomeroy

[hurleyfor3]

Took awhile for Pomeroy to come out today, but it's up.

http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm

Kansas and Memphis are still above us on Pomeroy. We are not #1 in either of the Sagarin subpolls, but second in both. The Sagarin top five are us, Memphis, Kansas, unc and Ucla.

The recent games have done wonders for our SOS. Ours is #14 Sagarin (unc is 17) and #8 Pomeroy (unc is 32).

Also, our defensive point distribution is approaching the extremes of 2006: we lead the country in highest percentage of opposing points via 2-pointers and have the third-lowest percentage of opposing points via threes. Only Central Michigan and (...wait for it...) Datmouth are stingier in allowing threes.

[stickdog]

Also, Duke is now #2 in the RPI behind Tennessee with a #6 SOS.

[devildeac]

Also, Duke is now #2 in the RPI behind Tennessee with a #6 SOS.

and it is a darn shame we do not schedule any difficult away games(rolls eyes)

[speedevil]

Took awhile for Pomeroy to come out today, but it's up.

http://www.kenpom.com/rate.php
http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm

Kansas and Memphis are still above us on Pomeroy. We are not #1 in either of the Sagarin subpolls, but second in both. The Sagarin top five are us, Memphis, Kansas, unc and Ucla.

The recent games have done wonders for our SOS. Ours is #14 Sagarin (unc is 17) and #8 Pomeroy (unc is 32).

Also, our defensive point distribution is approaching the extremes of 2006: we lead the country in highest percentage of opposing points via 2-pointers and have the third-lowest percentage of opposing points via threes. Only Central Michigan and (...wait for it...) Datmouth are stingier in allowing threes.

for all us non dorks out there, what does Sagarin and Pomeroy poll rate?
is it the same as rpi?

[mus074]

for all us non dorks out there, what does Sagarin and Pomeroy poll rate?
is it the same as rpi?

Pomeroy tries to break down the teams into offensive and defensive efficiencies, based upon points scored per possession and then adjusted for level of competition and recency. In Pomeroy, a team could lose a lot of games but still rate high based upon actual performance. I think it is the truest rating system out there. Even better, he breaks down each team, a on tempo free basis, for such things as turnover percentages, effective field goal percentage, and the percentage of missed shots rebounded by the offense. Great, great stuff.

Sagarin does two things, and IMHO, neither very well. First he uses strict margin of victory, adjusted for level of competition to determine one half of the equation. The other half uses basic win-loss record, taking into consideration level of competition, to make an RPI-like rating. He then combines the two for his final Sagarin rating.

Neither rating is perfect, but using both together, you can see where they agree and do not together correspond to a team's AP or USA Today rankings, that team is over-/underrated. I have found this simple tool to be a strong indicator, come March, of which teams will over- or under-perform their seeds.

Pomeroy's numbers offer much more depth and intuitive rationale. I find the other stats he produces to be just fascinating.

[stickdog]

Here are some other interesting rating systems for geeks:

A super ranking combination of 40+ rating systems

Like Sagarin, but with a lot of breakdowns, including last 10 games

A whole set of different ranking systems, including "improved RPI"

A forecast of final RPI based on current record and Sagarin's predictor rating

A by conference look

[mus074]

Here are some other interesting rating systems for geeks:

A super ranking combination of 40+ rating systems

Like Sagarin, but with a lot of breakdowns, including last 10 games

A whole set of different ranking systems, including "improved RPI"

A forecast of final RPI based on current record and Sagarin's predictor rating

A by conference look

Awesome, thanks!

[uncwdevil]

I think some combination of Pomeroy and RPI is probably the best.

I agree that a lot of what Pomeroy does is great, but at some point whether a team wins or loses has to come into play.