Originally Posted by
III
Just want to point out that the "experts" don't necessarily think UNC is going to win by 4. They think that putting the line at UNC +4 will generate even betting on the game. Remember that the house makes the most money if the winners and losers cancel each other out, allowing the house to just collect the rake with no real payback. Even if I thought Duke would win by twenty, I wouldn't set the line at Duke +20, because nearly everyone would bet against that line, making it very risky for the house, and the house doesn't like to be risky. Granted, the house's line and their actual view of the game are usually similar, but don't take the line as a straight-up prediction.