Duke-UNC Line (just for fun)

[gofurman]

FWIW

NORTH CAROLINA is favored by 4 over Duke.

*SO NO WHINING BY UNC FANS about Lawson if they lose or crowing how they won without him...they are supposed to win according to the best experts in the world...
(Well, let me restate - they SHOULDN't WHINE - they will...

[III]

Just want to point out that the "experts" don't necessarily think UNC is going to win by 4. They think that putting the line at UNC +4 will generate even betting on the game. Remember that the house makes the most money if the winners and losers cancel each other out, allowing the house to just collect the rake with no real payback. Even if I thought Duke would win by twenty, I wouldn't set the line at Duke +20, because nearly everyone would bet against that line, making it very risky for the house, and the house doesn't like to be risky. Granted, the house's line and their actual view of the game are usually similar, but don't take the line as a straight-up prediction.

[Clipsfan]

Just want to point out that the "experts" don't necessarily think UNC is going to win by 4. They think that putting the line at UNC +4 will generate even betting on the game. Remember that the house makes the most money if the winners and losers cancel each other out, allowing the house to just collect the rake with no real payback. Even if I thought Duke would win by twenty, I wouldn't set the line at Duke +20, because nearly everyone would bet against that line, making it very risky for the house, and the house doesn't like to be risky. Granted, the house's line and their actual view of the game are usually similar, but don't take the line as a straight-up prediction.

Good distinction, with one minor addition. A team favored is actually -, not +, so the line is UNC -4.

[jzp5079]

anyone use wagerline.com for fun? (its a "play" betting site)

[sandinmyshoes]

FWIW

NORTH CAROLINA is favored by 4 over Duke.

*SO NO WHINING BY UNC FANS about Lawson if they lose or crowing how they won without him...they are supposed to win according to the best experts in the world...
(Well, let me restate - they SHOULDN't WHINE - they will...

So if they beat us by five they have a right to crow?

I can never really understand gambling lines. I do understand that it's based on how they think the general gambling public will bet, but sometimes the lines will read something like 4.5. Half a point? There are not half points in bsketball. I don't understand.

[hurleyfor3]

So if they beat us by five they have a right to crow?

I can never really understand gambling lines. I do understand that it's based on how they think the general gambling public will bet, but sometimes the lines will read something like 4.5. Half a point? There are not half points in bsketball. I don't understand.

The half-point precludes pushes.

It's a much bigger deal in football. There's a big difference between a 3-point favorite in football and a 2½ or 3½-point favorite. Last year's Super Bowl stayed on Colts -6½ the whole time because a ton of money would have moved to the Bears at -7.