Strategy vs. UNC

[Dukerati]

Here's a thought that no one has thrown out there:

Could it be better if Lawson played?

Without Lawson, UNC will probably favor a slower, more half-court style of play that will emphasize pounding the ball inside even more than they are already planning to. Roy always looks to go inside first anyways and without Lawson, he may look to press that advantage even more.

With Lawson in the game, UNC's transition game improves but at what cost? In a halfcourt game, UNC may become easier to defend as Lawson's primary skillset is not shooting but slashing to the basket. Duke has exhibited pretty strong help defense and if everyone crashes down inside when Lawson drives, I could see that being more beneficial than watching the accursed THans bob and travel his way to career highs...

[Wander]

Could it be better if Lawson played?

Not a chance.

[devildeac]

I decided to start a separate strategy thread in addition to the usual pre-game thread, because of this particular opponent. Here's what I'll be looking for Wednesday night:

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

Duke doesn't actually play its "starting lineup" together all that often after the start of each half. Still, assuming Lawson plays, how will the perimeter defensive assignments stack up? Or, more to the point, where do you put Paulus? I really only see two options -- he guards Lawson, or you try to "hide" him on Ginyard. He can't guard Ellington; not only can Wayne beat Greg off the dribble, but I can't see Greg chasing him through all those screens, and Wayne can just shoot over him. The last thing I want to see happen is for Ellington to go off early (more on that later).

Because of my fear of Ellington starting strong, I want DeMarcus to guard him. He's far better defender than Henderson. Plus, even if you hide Paulus on Ginyard, you still run the risk of Ginyard making an impact on the offensive boards. So, I'd bite the bullet early, have Paulus start on Lawson, put Markie on Ellington and stick Gerald on Ginyard. Obviously, this is all moot if Lawson doesn't play. And we'll surely see a ton of Scheyer and Smith -- I can't wait to see Smith on Lawson, Scheyer on Ellington (because of his ability to chase guys through screens) and Nelson on the third wing (which will be a nice little break for him), as I think that's Duke's top defensive perimeter trio. But it's fun to speculate about the first few minutes.

2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?
This question could very well decide the game. The Paulus-Scheyer-Nelson-Henderson-Singler lineup is Duke's second-most frequently used lineup, after the starters. From a plus/minus perspective, it hasn't been as wonderful as I'd hoped, at +32 in 38 shifts. Throw in the fact that K has used that group with Smith in for Paulus another 16 times, and that Thomas has replaced Singler with either of the two PGs in a total of 15 times, and it's clear that we like to go small often.

So, who gets the better of it? Can Duke pull Thompson/Stephenson (there's no way Hansbrough will cover one of the perimeter guys) away from the basket and either beat them to the basket or burn them from the perimeter? Will Carolina go to town with one of those guys posting up G? How will Duke help in the post, and how will that affect Hansbrough on the other side, and Carolina's offensive rebounding? While both teams can adjust (Duke can and will play two forwards much of the night and UNC can move Green to the 4), this is the most fascinating scenario to watch. It's speed vs. strength. Generally, at the college level, I favor speed, especially in a spread attack like Duke's. I think Carolina's bigs will struggle defending the pick-and-roll, especially if it's big-on-big (say, Thompson guarding G on the ball, with Singler, guarded by Hansbrough, setting the screen).

3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?
Yeah, you read that right. Duke has the deeper team. Green is a fantastic sixth man. Stephenson is good reserve in the post. But after that, the talent really drops off. The next two guys in UNC's rotation are Thomas and Graves. Neither is close to McClure and King, Duke's eighth and ninth guys. And if QT has to start, Carolina's backcourt depth is a MAJOR problem. For the people who believe in such things (and I'm not sure I do), Duke has the personnel and the intense ball-pressure to tire out the Heels -- especially their guards.

4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?
I was watching this during the Florida State game, because FSU plays three guards all the time and ran a lot of spread stuff with high ball-screens. Against FSU, UNC's bigs hedged really wide. FSU struggled agaisnt that until they started to split the hedge off the dribble. Unfortunately, Markie and Nolan are really the only two Duke guards who do that effectively. Scheyer and, in particular, Henderson, like to dribble wide off the ball-screen. And Paulus doesn't look to drive; he looks to shoot off the screen. But there's a catch -- Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson were able to hedge wide because FSU's bigs weren't perimeter threats -- they were rolling, not popping. It's a totally different challenge when Singler and King are setting that high screen. They can't hedge nearly as far. So, will UNC trap the ball-handler? Switch everything? Show-and-recover? Hedge as far as they did against FSU? Pick-and-roll defense will be huge.

5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?

I'm conceding a rebound advantage to UNC. I'm conceding points in the paint. I'm conceding the fact that Lance, who has battled foul problems all year, probably will rack up a few on Wednesday night. But Duke can't afford to lose Singler at the offensive end. So he needs to be judicious in the post and, most of all, he CANNOT commit fouls 30 feet from the basket. I love the kid's hustle and will, but the risk of his gambling so far away from the hoop isn't worth the benefit in this game. Singler's ability to stretch the D and potentially get Hansbrough in foul trouble by facing up on him is critical. The kid needs to stay on the court.

Obviously there are other keys. We've talked all year about converting turnovers into points, minimizing damage in the post, finding more ways to get Scheyer shots, figuring out which Taylor King will show up, etc. But I'll be watching the five issues above particularly closely.

Jumbo, This thread was a FABULOUS idea. Lots of education and discussion here. One of the better ideas/efforts on the board since I have been lurking/posting. I have learned a tremendous amount poring over this the last couple days. Hope K read it. too .

[Jumbo]

So how did these issues turn out? Let's see...

1) Who guards whom on the perimeter to start the game?

This turned out to be a non-issue because Lawson didn't play.

2) How often will Duke use its 4-guard lineup? And how will it match up with UNC's two strong posts?

Duke used a four-guard lineup five times and outscored UNC by six points during those stretches. We probably would have seen more of this strategy, if not for Nelson's foul trouble. Duke did a very good job of spreading the floor in this set, and we went small to finish the game, holding our own.

3) Can Duke's depth wear out the Heels?

This didn't end up as a big issue either -- McClure and King didn't play much. Duke's main players logged big minutes as did Carolina's. Having Scheyer available off the bench certainly helped, though.

4) How will UNC defend Duke's pick-and-rolls?

UNC tried the hard hedges early, and did a good job at the beginning of forcing Duke's guards to take wide angles. But Duke eventually exposed their lack of quickness. Thompson got called for at least two fouls on those wide hedges; Hansbrough got hit with one. Nolan Smith split the two defenders once. And then UNC adjusted a bit, and started making mistakes. Their guard went under ball-screens, which gave Paulus room to launch threes. Their bigs showed and couldn't recover, leaving Singler open behind the arc. Duke was successful with half-court stuff beyond ball-screens, but UNC has a real problem figuring out how to guard them. My best guess for the second matchup is that UNC will try to trap them and rotate. At least, that's what I would do.

5. Can Singler avoid foul trouble?

Yup, and getting 37 minutes from him was absolutely crucial.

[dukelifer]

Thompson worries me most on this team. He is capable of a big game. He also has a nice array of shots around the hoop. Duke will have their hands full dealing with him and Hansblah. But I agree that Duke is a tad deeper and if Lawson does not play- much deeper- so they key will be to keep it close and be fresher at crunch time. There will be runs in the game- both ways - and it will be intense- but I expect it to be close with a few minutes remaining - and Duke might shine at that time by spreading the floor. I am looking forward to seeing how K manages this game and how Duke deals with the size mismatches. We will learn a lot about the team for sure.

For a while there- Thompson looked to be the x factor. What I did not account for was his inability to play D. Fortunately for Duke, his foul trouble kept him off the floor because he was very effective when in there. I am not sure he will fix this problem this year- but he is a very talented offensive player. Duke again did very well at the end of the game spreading the floor and hitting free throws in the last few minutes is going to be key. Nelson is really improving. We need Henderson to do the same. If the team can hit near 80 percent in crunch time- they will be hard to beat.

[Clipsfan]

And I'm going to stick with my comment that they'd get theirs inside but that if we hit the outside shot (more than 40%) we'd win. It would have been a very close game (hard to tell what would happen with rebounds etc) if we'd only hit 40%...