Critiques of Duke MBB recruiting

[Billy Dat]

Just saw this exchange on ESPN.com's live recruiting chat and thought it might stir some debate. I think John Carroll offers a well though out reply. What does it mean for Duke's future?:

Matt(Roanoke, VA): Is Coach K slipping in recruiting? Doesn't seem like they are getting the top flight players these days?

John Carroll: (1:25 PM ET ) I would not say they slipped. Last year they got Singler, who is destined for greatness, and they got Smith who is a very talented guard out of Oak Hill. They are involved with very good players right now and their roster in littered with all-americans. I would not sya they have slipped, but they have not gotten dominant NBA prospects. There was a time when their roster was full of future NBA talents (such as Grant Hill). The guys they get now are very good players, but they are not NBA can't-miss prospects. I think that is the biggest change.People ahve to understand that kids are looking toi go tom school for 1 or 2 years, so kids do not feel they have to go to Duke to do that. Look at what OJ Mayo or Rose did, they look to go to a school for ne year and then move to the NBA. In the past kids would look to go to a school for four years, a school like Duke, to become the best player they could become.

[dkbaseball]

Has there ever been a larger disparity between the number of McDonalds all-Americans Duke has and the number everybody else has? This year we have eight. I believe no other program has more than five. Perhaps in '99?

And IMO several solid NBA prospects will emerge from the current group.

[wilson]

Has there ever been a larger disparity between the number of McDonalds all-Americans Duke has and the number everybody else has? This year we have eight. I believe no other program has more than five. Perhaps in '99?

And IMO several solid NBA prospects will emerge from the current group.

Also, the notion that Grant Hill comes from Duke's NBA prospect heyday is simply false. Since then, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, et al have all gone on to solid-to-spectacular NBA careers, and each of them have plenty of years left. If anything, Grant was the exception, while Duke players of his ilk are increasingly becoming the rule. Moreover, two of the aforementioned players (Maggette and Deng) went to school for one year, and another (Brand) went for two, thus debunking another element of this guy's argument.
John Carroll, Schmon Carroll.

[VTBaller03]

Is this guy trying to say Singler, Henderson and Smith won't be NBA prospects?

[ehdg]

Moreover, two of the aforementioned players (Maggette and Deng) went to school for one year, and another (Brand) went for two, thus debunking another element of this guy's argument.
John Carroll, Schmon Carroll.

Maggette and Deng I believe are excpetions for us. Both where originally thought to be Duke for more then 1 year. Coach K probably wouldn't have recruited either one if he'd know they where only going to stay one year. Deng wanted to stay more supposedly but his family wanted him to turn pro for the money. As for Brand he was as good as he was ever going to be and came from a family that could really benefit by him going Pro and even had Coach's recommendation to turn Pro which he did after his sophomore year.

[wilson]

Maggette and Deng I believe are excpetions for us. Both where originally thought to be Duke for more then 1 year. Coach K probably wouldn't have recruited either one if he'd know they where only going to stay one year. Deng wanted to stay more supposedly but his family wanted him to turn pro for the money. As for Brand he was as good as he was ever going to be and came from a family that could really benefit by him going Pro and even had Coach's recommendation to turn Pro which he did after his sophomore year.

You're right, but in my estimation, the circumstances are immaterial. Unexpected or not, Maggette and Deng did exactly the thing that Carroll seems to somehow rule out for Duke players. As for Brand, his departure was, as you said, in no way surprising. This makes him in my mind the most direct refutation of Carroll's erroneous assertions.

[Clipsfan]

Maggette and Deng I believe are excpetions for us. Both where originally thought to be Duke for more then 1 year. Coach K probably wouldn't have recruited either one if he'd know they where only going to stay one year. Deng wanted to stay more supposedly but his family wanted him to turn pro for the money. As for Brand he was as good as he was ever going to be and came from a family that could really benefit by him going Pro and even had Coach's recommendation to turn Pro which he did after his sophomore year.

I always thought that Brand came from a family that wasn't in financial trouble. I mean, most families can benefit from someone pulling in $3-4 million/year, but they wouldn't have suffered if he took another year. Is my memory wrong?

[6th Man]

I wonder if a top flight recruit ever worries about Duke's exposure. They will certainly be scrutinized more at Duke than any other school. If they have some weaknesses they will be exposed for sure. May not be a great place if you have some things you need to hide. Shav, McRoberts come to mind. Might have been potential lottery picks out of high school (makes me shake my head), but they certainly were exposed on a national level. Even though USC or a Memphis will get attention, it will not be at the level of Duke. I'm not saying this is solid rationale, but the NBA and drafting on potential is a joke to me anyway.

[SilkyJ]

Is this guy trying to say Singler, Henderson and Smith won't be NBA prospects?

Seeing as how he said Singler is "destined for greatness", I don't think so. Moreover, the language he used was "dominant" nba prospects, which I will define for the sake of this post as guys who were considered to be lottery picks right out of HS or that would develop into lottery picks 1-2 years.

Also, the notion that Grant Hill comes from Duke's NBA prospect heyday is simply false. Since then, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Corey Maggette, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, et al have all gone on to solid-to-spectacular NBA careers, and each of them have plenty of years left. If anything, Grant was the exception, while Duke players of his ilk are increasingly becoming the rule. Moreover, two of the aforementioned players (Maggette and Deng) went to school for one year, and another (Brand) went for two, thus debunking another element of this guy's argument.
John Carroll, Schmon Carroll.

I definitely agree that he was a little off on the Grant Hill reference considering the talent we had 98-02. And since then we've been pretty solid in recruiting big time prospects, imho.

Jwill, Dunleavy, Boozer all committed to Duke before the 99 season was over and Brand, Avery and Maggette all left early for the league. Out of those 6 guys, 4 were lottery picks and Maggette missed the lottery by 1 spot (or maybe Avery did, I remember they went like 13 and 15 or something like that)

Thats pretty ridiculous for two years worth of recruiting, and it would be hard to keep that pace going, but we have done a solid job I think.

(2002) After JWill left we brought in FIVE McD's in JJ, Shav, Sheld, Michael Thompson and Dock, to go along with Lee. Shav and Sheld were both considered top 10 recruits and big time NBA prospects, and JJ was considered to have a bright future as well...he was MVP of the McD's game.

(2003) The next year we got Deng, who was the best recruit who went to college that year (Lebron) and Humphries (who was a realllly good prospect at the time, even though he never made it to campus).

(2004) The next year we brough in another consensus #2 guy in Shaun livingston, only he never made it to campus (and demarc and mcclure, but they weren't dominant nba prospects)

(2005) The next year we bring in McBob, another consensus #1/2 guy.

(2006) Last year was our first year missing on a top recruit as we didn't get brandan wright and we didn't get ellington, but we still brought in G-Money.

(2007) This past year we didn't get Kevin Love, but we did get Kyle Singler, who is a dominant NBA prospect.

Recap: In the 6 years since Jwill's class left we brought in at least 5 "dominant" nba prospects: Shav, Deng, Livingston, McBob, Singler. You could make an argument for both Sheld and Humphries as well as they were both big men who had already filled out ("had an NBA ready body", you hear that all the time these days) and were highly touted/skilled. The problem here is that 6 guys (exlcuding singler) they played a total of 10 years at Duke! and two of them never put on a blue and white uni!

I have been harping on this subject for months now, but this whole early entry and thing, to go along with some untimely transfers, has finally caught up to us. Livingston/Humphries never made it to campus, Deng went pro early, so did Shav, so did McBob. Other McD's like Boateng and Mike Thompson transferred. Out of those SEVEN guys I just listed, they had a combined 16 years of playing at duke that never happened (not counting two years each of McBob's and Boateng's elgibility, since we haven't been through those seasons yet).

Think about that. You want to know what's killing us, its that. Which is why K has altered his philosophy and is bringing in bigtime recruiting classes, every year, back to back so we won't have gaps at any position, or in overall experience:

McBob, Paulus, Boateng, Marty
Henderson, Scheyer, Zoubek, Lance
Singler, King, Smith

(try and find 3 consecutive classes with that much firepower)

I've written this same post 20 different times in 20 different ways, but I'm telling ya, its the transfers and early entries that are killing us, so coach K is finally adjusting his philosophy and will return us to dominance!

[greybeard]

"I've written this same post 20 different times in 20 different ways, but I'm telling ya, its the transfers and early entries that are killing us, so coach K is finally adjusting his philosophy and will return us to dominance!"

Seems to be killing the guy down the road and others, for example, UCLA, less, I think is the point. Things like losing that kid to Kentucky could make an awful lot of difference this year, especially after all the other bigs but Singlar, who really isn't a big, signed elsewhere.

Perhaps competing for the likely one and done, okay maybe I'll stay two, crowd, isn't a fit for either K or Duke. Not a bad thing, imo, if it is so. But, it has to impact the program.

[OldPhiKap]

The one thing that I think Carroll is correct about is when he says that if you have the mindset of being the best player you can be, you are looking for a long-term commitment at Duke. If you are looking to make a highlight reel and bounce to the league after a year, Duke may not be your best choice.

K teaches a system based upon fundamentals and defense. A lot of kids just want to run and gun to show they can put up flashy points. That's fine -- but that's not what we do here.

[dukediv2013]

Is this guy trying to say Singler, Henderson and Smith won't be NBA prospects?

I don't believe that is what John Carroll meant. I think he is trying to say that they are not going to be the LeBron James' and Dwight Howard's in the NBA. They will be the Shane Battier's and Dahntay Jones' that do not dominate, but are still very effective.

[Classof06]

I don't think K's recruiting is slipping or has slipped, but I do think Duke was painfully unathletic for a few years. I think now you're starting to see Krzyzewski go after more explosive players with the additions of kids like Gerald Henderson, Lance Thomas and Nolan Smith; even Zoubek moves extremely well for a 7-footer, IMO. You're also starting to see Duke go after kids like Olek Czyz, EW and Monroe; if we end up landing the latter 2, that would be Duke's most athletic recruiting class in years. After we went to the Final Four my sophomore year (2004), I remember thinking to myself "wow, are we were unathletic" during my junior and senior years. As great as JJ and Shelden were, neither was extraordinary athletic.

I think it would be realistic to say that Krzyzewski has altered his recruiting approach a little bit. That being said, it's certainly a subjective observation. The bottom line is that with the future looking so bright, it's misinformed to say Duke's recruiting has slipped, even on the heels of a (gasp) 22-11 season. We are the only program in America where a 22-11 season stokes debates of whether or not we have fallen from grace. Had we landed Patterson, this discussion never even happens.

[Bluedawg]

According to Scout.com rankings Kyle Singler #1, Nolan Smith #7, Taylor King #15 and Duke ranked 6th nationally.

That doesn't sound too bad to me.

[SilkyJ]

According to Scout.com rankings Kyle Singler #1, Nolan Smith #7, Taylor King #15 and Duke ranked 6th nationally.

That doesn't sound too bad to me.

Those ranking or that page are messed up. Nowhere have I seen singler ranked as the #1 prospect...not to mention that page says "football recruiting" not basketball recruiting. See scout.com top100 page below:

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75...pid=88&yr=2007

Singler: 6
Smith: 26
King: 56

You really think if we had landed 3 top 15 recruits including 1 who was the #1 recruit in the class they would rank us as having the SIXTH best class overall??????

[Clipsfan]

I think that the rankings on the first link might be for at their position, not overall in the class.

[VaDukie]

I think that the rankings on the first link might be for at their position, not overall in the class.

we have a winner.

[mcdukie]

I agree with the post that said that we had a run where we weren't really that athletic. Sometimes I think we make too big a deal about getting McDAA's. Some, not all of those players, got some unecessary hype. I will say that I hope a solid post and a pure point guard is coming in the near future. We are all hoping that Nolan can play some point. That being said, we still recruit with the best of them!

[Bluedawg]

Those ranking or that page are messed up. Nowhere have I seen singler ranked as the #1 prospect...not to mention that page says "football recruiting" not basketball recruiting. See scout.com top100 page below:

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75...pid=88&yr=2007

Singler: 6
Smith: 26
King: 56

You really think if we had landed 3 top 15 recruits including 1 who was the #1 recruit in the class they would rank us as having the SIXTH best class overall??????

i did question Singler being #1, the last i saw he was #5. 6 sounds about right, however, I've never seen Nolan and taylor so low.

[crote]

i did question Singler being #1, the last i saw he was #5. 6 sounds about right, however, I've never seen Nolan and taylor so low.

Really? They've been in those positions pretty consistently for as long as I recall.

Carroll's point, which I think is somewhat fair, was that there was a time when if you were a high school player who wanted to maximize his chances at going to the NBA, you would go to Duke to hone your skills and thus become more attractive to GMs in the association. Now, he says, you don't have to do that, and Duke has correspondingly lost a good piece of its competitive advantage.

It's hard to make the sell to the elite of the elite that they need to come to Duke (or for that matter UNC et al) to become highly sought after NBA players when the likes of Texas and Ohio State have had multiple top five picks in recent years.