Phase III - 2008

[Bob Green]

Nolan Smith's development is exciting and I believe his role will continue to expand as the season marches forward. However, Greg Paulus brings skills to the court that Duke needs to be successful so he to will continue to play significant minutes. As I've posted before, I like to look at combinations of players. Yesterday, Smith and Paulus combined for 22 points, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and 4 turnovers in 44 minutes of action. That equates to seriously good point guard productivity.

[Saratoga2]

Nolan Smith's development is exciting and I believe his role will continue to expand as the season marches forward. However, Greg Paulus brings skills to the court that Duke needs to be successful so he to will continue to play significant minutes. As I've posted before, I like to look at combinations of players. Yesterday, Smith and Paulus combined for 22 points, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 rebounds, and 4 turnovers in 44 minutes of action. That equates to seriously good point guard productivity.

Greg is at a time in his development where he has to realize that trying to make a spectacular play is not always in the interest of the team. The point guard has to value the ball and set up the offense. He is not too old to improve on his problem areas. Look at the improvement that DeMarcus has made in his senior year and you know that players can continue to improve throughout their career.

[mapei]

He runs like a deer in the open court; watch the replays of his tomahawk down-the-middle ty lawson worryin ol roy frettin dadgummit hole fans cryin and channelin easy ed cota to slow nolan foot inside the foul line afterburner on THROTTLE UP DUKE . . . surely, Carolina delenda est . . .

I have no idea what you were trying to say, but I'm enjoying watching Smith's growth as a player. Love his quickness.

[Jumbo]

So, we're five games into Phase III, with five to go. Given that a couple of posters addressed this already, I thought the time was right to see how we were doing in these goals I'd stated.

*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
Uh, yeah, you think? Nolan's still got plenty of room for improvement, but there is on doubting the strides he has made in this area. He attacked Clemson's pressure as soon as he entered the game, and that was an early turning point for Duke.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
This is getting better, but we're still not all the way there yet. Here's what I like: In the last three games, if Scheyer's jumper hasn't gone down early, he has found other ways to score by attacking the basket. Scheyer is becoming more aggressive. And Coach K -- especially in the FSU game -- has run more stuff through him late.
Still, Duke sticks him in the corner too much. He needs to handle the ball out front more often, with room to operate. I don't know if that fall on Jon or on K. I imagine it's a combo job.

*Can Kyle Singler become an elite scorer in big games?
Elite? Not yet. Clutch? It's sure looking that way. He hit a huge three against FSU. He hit another one against Clemson. I'd really like Duke to post him up more often. I'd like to see Kyle take bigger guys off the dribble more often and get to the line. There's a part of me that wishes he wouldn't settle for so many threes, except he's almost always wide open, and when he misses, the shot is almost always right online -- just a little short. In other words, he isn't far from becoming a really deadly shooter from deep.

*Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
Any way you slice it, this is still a big problem. Improvement from Dave and Lance, plus the return of Zoubek, will help. Singler's own aggressiveness is part of the problem too -- the kid just doesn't back down. But Duke needs Kyle on the court and he has to avoid the cheap fouls 35 feet from the basket.

*Can Gerald Henderson make his teammates better?
I''m not really seeing it yet. Well, scratch that -- I've seen a couple more flashes lately, especially in the Clemson game. Gerald still drives with his head down, which is a major problem. But he's starting to recognize when other guys are hot and hasn't been as much of a "ball-stopper" in recent games. These are baby steps, and Gerald has a long way to go to maximize his talent and potential in this area. But he seems to be trying.

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The Clemson game certainly provided a glimpse. I loved the pressure D. I loved the renewed commitment to running on offense. And I'm not at all worried that Duke's success was a mirage because of particularly good shooting, because most of Duke's shots were WIDE OPEN. As long as Duke can force the tempo, pressure the heck out of the guards and switch actively on D, I can live with a rebonding disadvantage and a few easy buckets for an opposing big man. If Duke plays its style -- and plays it well -- the team can beat anyone on a given night.

*Can Duke generate more offense off its defense? And can the team maintain a fast pace?
I would've said this was still a major concern until the Clemson game. That performance really raised my spirits because, as I mentioned elsewhere, it was a vintage Duke performance in this area. Part of it was the fact that Clemson likes to play fast, too. But I hope that game serves as a lesson to both K and the kids that when they force the tempo, good things happen.

*Can Taylor King elevate his play against good teams?
Yes. He did it against Florida State with some of his best rebounding and defense of the season. He did it reasonably well against UVA. Obviously, he struggled against Clemson. But my only hope for Taylor King this year was that he could develop into a situational player. So, as long as a team doesn't have particularly athletic bigs (like Clemson), I'm a lot more confident that King can hold his own than I was before Phase III.

*Can Duke work more movement into its offense?
This still remains to be seen. The drive-and-kick game can be very effective, and at times you see some excellent ball movement. At other times, Duke stands around too much. The Suns-style offense doesn't involve a ton of cutting or screening without the ball. But Duke is at its best when guys make quicker decisions to pass, drive or shoot. When that happense, that's enough movement to make this system work right.

[Jumbo]

I have no idea what you were trying to say, but I'm enjoying watching Smith's growth as a player. Love his quickness.

I love the way the kid guards people. His offensive improvement is just gravy.

[Saratoga2]

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The Clemson game certainly provided a glimpse. I loved the pressure D. I loved the renewed commitment to running on offense. And I'm not at all worried that Duke's success was a mirage because of particularly good shooting, because most of Duke's shots were WIDE OPEN. As long as Duke can force the tempo, pressure the heck out of the guards and switch actively on D, I can live with a rebonding disadvantage and a few easybuckets for an opposing big man. If Duke plays its style -- and plays it well -- the team can beat anyone on a given night.

Against Clemson, the rebounding disadvantage often turned to fast break opportunities against our team. I see it as due to the way we spread to the corners and have at least one of our bigger people in the middle. When the rebound is caught, we have a 3 on 2 disadvantage getting back. In the case of quick threes by Paulus, we had only two of our smaller people back and they couldn't handle the quick strike by Clemson. If we hit a good percentage of our threes and make sure are corners are on the run back on defense when the ball goes up, we concede the rebound but at least are not shorthanded on defense. Any other thoughts?

[CDu]

Greg is at a time in his development where he has to realize that trying to make a spectacular play is not always in the interest of the team. The point guard has to value the ball and set up the offense. He is not too old to improve on his problem areas. Look at the improvement that DeMarcus has made in his senior year and you know that players can continue to improve throughout their career.

I think Paulus has made the adjustment regarding trying to make the spectacular play at this point. His turnovers are WAY down from last year. We rarely if ever see him attempt the spectacular pass these days, and most of his mistakes are at least within the offense.

What we have now is a guy playing entirely within the offense, in a very muted role as point guard. Part of this is that the scheme seems to be more based on passing around the perimeter and on shots or kickouts from slashes to the basket. Another key is that the scheme uses a number of different players to attack from the perimeter, which has de-emphasized the role of the pure point guard and thus takes a lot of the playmaking pressure off Paulus.

The question is whether Paulus can learn how to integrate the passing gifts that made him a high-school All-American while still minimizing the mistakes. This can be very difficult. It's easier to play it safe and protect the ball and avoid turnovers than it is to learn how to make impact passes while still avoiding the turnovers.

[DukeBlood]

I couldnt find your Phase post. Perhaps I just missed it.

My question, When does your Phase IV come out? I believe the last Phase was III. Thanks for your help, and look forward to it.

[Bob Green]

The "Search" function is very useful:

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ead.php?t=5669

[Jumbo]

I couldnt find your Phase post. Perhaps I just missed it.

My question, When does your Phase IV come out? I believe the last Phase was III. Thanks for your help, and look forward to it.

After the UNC game. I figured the third phase was the first game after the long layoff through the first half of the ACC season.

[Jumbo]

Someone asked a few days ago if I'd wrap up Phase III. Now's the time. Remember all the gnashing of teeth after the Pitt game? Remember how worried people were after the layoff and poor performances against Cornell and Temple? That seems so long ago. I'll post a Phase IV version later, but here's a look back. At the issues I identified back then:


*Can Nolan Smith become more confident with the ball?
Without a doubt. He's still inconsistent, but you can't say he's afraid to attack anymore. He averaged 7.6 ppg in Phase III and his FT/3PT shooting both improved. One concern -- he hasn't had an assist in his last three games.

*Can Jon Scheyer find his place in this offense, and can Coach K find better ways to utilize him?
It's still yes/no here. I don't want to go off on a rant here, so suffice it to say that we saw flashes, particularly against FSU, Clemson and UNC. His teammates and coaching staff still need to mae an effort to get him the ball and let him work on the wing, not just the corner.

*Can Kyle Singler become an elite scorer in big games?
He's not "elite" scorer yet. But he's very reliable. Plus, I had been really concerned that Duke wasn't using his perimeter skills to exploit bigs (I commented at length on his lack of attacking DeJuan Blair off the dribble). Last night, Duke made a conscious effort to give the ball to Singler and let him create against Hansbrough. And it worked.

*Can Kyle Singler avoid foul trouble?
This is still a problem. He averaged 3.4 fouls per game during Phase III. But last night was a great step forward -- only three fouls in 37 minutes against an outstanding frontline.

*Can Gerald Henderson make his teammates better?
Let me start by saying I think Henderson is trying to make more of an effort in this area. It's just not a skill that comes natrually, and it's really hard to improve during the season. I expect/hope he'll work on his court vision and passing during the summer. That said, he can still take fewer bad shots and use his ability to beat his man to get better shots for his teammates.

*How will Duke handle "big" teams?
The answer is "well enought to win." As I've been saying all year, there are many ways to skin a cat. If a team wants to get the bulk of his points down low, that's fine. As long as Duke doesn't have multiple players foul out and can exploit those bigs at the other end, we should be fine. And we have been. Size alone can't beat Duke.

*Can Duke generate more offense off its defense? And can the team maintain a fast pace?
Yup! There's something wrong with last night's gamebook -- it has zero fast break points for both teams. But Duke has been playing at a fast pace lately. We're scoring a ton of points. We're forcing 18.6 turnovers against ACC opponents. The worry about a slow-down combined with a return to last year's offensive struggles was short-lived and misguided.

*Can Taylor King elevate his play against good teams?
Not really. At this point, TK is what I thought he'd be coming into the season -- a situational player. That doesn't mean he won't have a role going forward. As someoone (Olympic Fan?) said elsewhere, when Zoubek returns, he and King problem won't make a contribution in a few games, but will then pop up in the right matchup and come up huge. It's great to know that Taylor can go scoreless in two minutes one night (and still win) and that he could just as easily put up 10 points and 15 minutes in his next game. For now, let's consider him an extra post defender and a streak shooter, and take whatever he gives us as gravy. His contributions aren't vital to success, but they make success come easier.

*Can Duke work more movement into its offense?
A little bit. I've come to accept that this offense will naturally involve a ton of screen/roll and iso ball. But Duke has zipped the ball around a big more, and run some more set plays with screens off the ball. Also, the drive-and-kick game has improved dramatically.