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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    2022 Midterm Election thread

    Well, we may regret this but the mod team has decided to allow a conversation about the upcoming midterms.

    YOU MUST READ THIS POST BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD!!

    The DBR has a very strict policy against posting opinions about political/public policy matters. It is how we keep this a sane and civil place. As such, we will not discuss the merits of taxes, abortion, universal health care, gun control, illegal immigration, voter fraud, or a myriad of other issues. Don't post here that the GOP are evil because they want to take away a woman's right to choose or that Democrats absolutely stole the Presidency in 2020. Doing so will earn you a swift and severe punishment from the mod community.

    What you can do in this thread is talk about -- in a dispassionate way -- the way the midterms are shaping up. You can give analysis of why you think abortion or the search of Mar-a-lago will motivate voters, but cannot say what you personally think about those issues. You can point out a new poll that shows Herschel Walker neck-and-neck with Raphael Warnock, but cannot ask how anyone could vote for a former football player who has trouble stringing his thoughts together. Similarly, you can provide quotes from an article about how Democrats are avoiding talking about Biden on the campaign trail, but cannot say, "of course they are. He's the worst president of my lifetime and is probably senile."

    If you have ANY QUESTIONS about whether a post is allowable, feel free to send it to me before posting it. I am really good about responding quickly to this stuff and helping folks craft a post that will not end up in an infraction.

    Lastly, if you want to see how all this works, here is the 2020 Presidential Election thread. It veers off course a few times, but largely follows the rules I have outlined here.

    Good luck everyone...

    -Jason "note: the responsibility for maintaining civility in this thread falls to me... the rest of the mod team is largely rolling their eyes at me right now " Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    The advice I posted repeatedly in other election threads in the past bears repeating...

    Look at your post before you hit "submit" and put yourself in the shoes of someone from the opposite side of the aisle. Would they see anything in it that causes them to shout back? Will they be able to tell from your post which party you support?

    Your goal should be to make it impossible to see from your post if you are a Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, or anything else.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #3
    I think both parties believe this is a battle for the soul of our country. I anticipate extremely high turn out for a midterm and some very motivated bases.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    I, for one, am happy to have the thread available, so let's start there: Thank you to Jason and the mod team for giving it a go. It's bound to get rough at times, but the opportunity is rare on the interwebs to have a rational political discussion these days. In my not-so-humble opinion, having a democracy gets progressively more difficult when the populous does not feel comfortable discussing politics. So for that reason alone, I believe the existence of this thread is a healthy thing. Thank you once again to the mod team for allowing it to happen.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I think both parties believe this is a battle for the soul of our country. I anticipate extremely high turn out for a midterm and some very motivated bases.
    I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?
    Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

    The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

    When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

    I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

    I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

    The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

    When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

    I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

    I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.
    Don't you mean downward spiral?

    Thanks Jason, for putting up with us biennially.
    Past is gone, thou canst not that recall; Future is not, may not be at all;
    Present is, [so] improve the flying hour; Present only is within thy power. - Friar Park Clock Tower [author unknown]

  8. #8
    538 denizen here. This is shaping up to be a high turnout election. It appears Dems are about as likely to keep the Senate as Republicans are to take back the House.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

    To counter Big Wayne from a voting trends perspective: I have become MUCH more of a single party voter than I used to be (historically I was 70/30 towards one side). My parents (and brother, uncle, aunt, cousin, grandma etc) were educators. I vote for educational funding across the board. But I think BDubs and I are part of the growing voter trends. Either a disdain for both sides, or a retreat to a more partisan corner.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Don't you mean downward spiral?

    Thanks Jason, for putting up with us biennially.
    Further Down the Spiral. But that's because Jason has a sweet NIN tramp stamp from his college days.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Thanks Jason for giving us a shot at this once again.

    I am so deeply concerned for the future of our country. I just don't see how the enormous gulf between "red" and "blue" can be bridged when the two sides are both so tribal and they are essentially living in different realities. People on opposite sides can barely talk to each other anymore, and many times actually can't, as it seems like everything quickly devolves into politics and finger pointing and that ends that.

    As far as the midterms go, it sure seems like both sides have a killer issue. Inflation for the red team and abortion for the blue. Both are highly motivating for their voters and the key will be which one is more motivating, which in turn will be a result of which side does the better job of keeping the primary narrative on "their" killer issue.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    I am increasingly unhappy with both parties. My default vote in almost all cases is against the incumbents and to vote no on all propositions. Does that make me an angry old man?
    While I can understand your point of view, I find the policies of the two parties to be so diametrically opposed at this point on many issues (and in some cases such a massive shift from our current world) that I have trouble wrapping my head around someone who's sole intent in casting a ballot is to "throw them all out!"

    Are you saying you would vote against an incumbent Democrat for House and and at the same time against an incumbent GOP senator? I find that tough to understand unless you don't really care very much about the policies backed by either party. I'd love to understand this better.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    The most interesting dynamic (for me anyway) seems to be the success of a number of pro Trump candidates for the GOP whom the national party leaders fear are too extreme to win in the general election.

    Just next door in New Hamster, ultra popular GOP governor John Sununu turned down a chance to take on Maggie Hassan for a Senate seat (he almost certainly would have won). Instead the guy who (barely) got the nod in the Senate primary is a guy who has referred to Sununu as a "Chinese communist sympathizer." I can understand the notion of some that the way to pick winning candidates is to have some drinks in a back room, smoke cigars, and pick a candidate. Not especially democratic though.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    My home state senate race between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz is one of the most pivotal and interesting. Oz is a carpetbagging crudite-loving famous person and Fetterman looks like a member of hells angels. He also had a stroke not too long ago and went from a wildly active personal campaigner to relying almost exclusively on a strong internet troll game. Itís becoming clear he has some lingering issues that are impacting his health and verbal skills.

    Really weird set of candidates and circumstances.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Well, I don't know if you are in the minority, but you certainly aren't alone.

    The two party system seems to leave a lot of dissatisfied constituents. Unfortunately, the two party system is designed to make a small number of people very powerful.

    When all one side has to do it point at the other and say "at least we aren't THEM," it doesn't lend itself to any real progress or governance.

    I'm not sure I know anyone IRL these days who is incredibly happy with their party and party leadership. I know lots of people who are incensed with the "other side."

    I don't know how we pull our government out of this particular rut.
    Agreed on all points. The extremes from both parties really disgust this independent in Florida. I've suggested a genuine "spoil the ballot" that is tabulated and broadcast along with winners and losers votes. Doubt it's going to happen any time soon.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    538 denizen here.
    Excellent place to get bad takes. ;-)

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My home state senate race between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz is one of the most pivotal and interesting. Oz is a carpetbagging crudite-loving famous person and Fetterman looks like a member of hells angels. He also had a stroke not too long ago and went from a wildly active personal campaigner to relying almost exclusively on a strong internet troll game. Itís becoming clear he has some lingering issues that are impacting his health and verbal skills.

    Really weird set of candidates and circumstances.
    I have been waiting to see if Fetterman would agree to debate Dr. Oz. I see that he recently did. I feel this will be pivotal. Even if people donít tune in, I could see his debate performance (and whatever narrative(s) form after the debate) as a moment that either puts people at ease about his ability to do the job or creates real concern about whether he is up for the task.
    Carolina delenda est

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    My home state senate race between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz is one of the most pivotal and interesting. Oz is a carpetbagging crudite-loving famous person and Fetterman looks like a member of hells angels. He also had a stroke not too long ago and went from a wildly active personal campaigner to relying almost exclusively on a strong internet troll game. Itís becoming clear he has some lingering issues that are impacting his health and verbal skills.

    Really weird set of candidates and circumstances.
    Youíre lucky. Pretty boring down here in Georgia this cycle.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Youíre lucky. Pretty boring down here in Georgia this cycle.
    that's funny. Hey, I noticed (for those who like numbers) that 538 has the Dems with a 71% chance of winning the Senate, and the Repubs with a 71% chance of taking the House.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Youíre lucky. Pretty boring down here in Georgia this cycle.
    I said ďone ofÖĒ. No need to get flip.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Well, we may regret this but the mod team has decided to allow a conversation about the upcoming midterms.

    YOU MUST READ THIS POST BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD!!

    The DBR has a very strict policy against posting opinions about political/public policy matters. It is how we keep this a sane and civil place. As such, we will not discuss the merits of taxes, abortion, universal health care, gun control, illegal immigration, voter fraud, or a myriad of other issues. Don't post here that the GOP are evil because they want to take away a woman's right to choose or that Democrats absolutely stole the Presidency in 2020. Doing so will earn you a swift and severe punishment from the mod community.

    What you can do in this thread is talk about -- in a dispassionate way -- the way the midterms are shaping up. You can give analysis of why you think abortion or the search of Mar-a-lago will motivate voters, but cannot say what you personally think about those issues. You can point out a new poll that shows Herschel Walker neck-and-neck with Raphael Warnock, but cannot ask how anyone could vote for a former football player who has trouble stringing his thoughts together. Similarly, you can provide quotes from an article about how Democrats are avoiding talking about Biden on the campaign trail, but cannot say, "of course they are. He's the worst president of my lifetime and is probably senile."

    If you have ANY QUESTIONS about whether a post is allowable, feel free to send it to me before posting it. I am really good about responding quickly to this stuff and helping folks craft a post that will not end up in an infraction.

    Lastly, if you want to see how all this works, here is the 2020 Presidential Election thread. It veers off course a few times, but largely follows the rules I have outlined here.

    Good luck everyone...

    -Jason "note: the responsibility for maintaining civility in this thread falls to me... the rest of the mod team is largely rolling their eyes at me right now " Evans
    Thanks Jason-

    You have more courage than I do. I appreciate you warning against comments that a hard core conservative may make. Can I ask that you also caution against comments that a hard core, liberal may make? For example, labeling conservatives as racist, anti woman, religious fanatics or fascists.

    Thanks

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