Pomeroy Stuff

[MChambers]

He now has projected season results. We go 28-2, 14-2. Kerlina is projected at 26-5, 12-4.

I'd take it.

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2008&team=Duke&t=p

[ikiru36]

He now has projected season results. We go 28-2, 14-2. Kerlina is projected at 26-5, 12-4.

I'd take it.

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2008&team=Duke&t=p

From his server to G-d's ears

(so long as the 2 unlucky losses aren't to the holes)

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SilkyJ]

hey greybeard,

look four games ahead against cornell. While we are only 99% certain to beat michigan and albany, we are 100% certain to beat cornell!

[77devil]

hey greybeard,

look four games ahead against cornell. While we are only 99% certain to beat michigan and albany, we are 100% certain to beat cornell!

Please don't get him started.

[Truth]

Wow. I'll have to read more about how Ken's made these conclusions. Does anyone truly believe that Duke, even in Cameron, has an 88% chance of beating UNC?

That's got to be 60-65% in a best case.

[oso diablo]

and we're at 68% to win IN Chapel Hill.

of course, these numbers will all change as the season rolls on. too early for meaningful stats.

[ice-9]

C'mon...kenpom's numbers are garbage at this time of year. West Virginia has a 91% chance of beating Pittsburgh?

[Troublemaker]

Yeah, it's too early to take those predicted scores seriously. That said, if you take a quick look at the stats page every day, you can get a feel for how the season develops for some teams. For example, UNC is in the 50s right now for defensive efficiency, and if they're serious about winning a championship, they need to improve and be in the top 15 before the end of the season. It's something to track. Likewise, we can track UCLA's offensive efficiency now that Collison has returned from injury, as they can get much better there. Finally, the stats confirm that Duke has played really, really well at the start of the season, and we want to keep it up.

[mehmattski]

UNC has had not had a very efficient defense thus far, ranking 55th in points/possession, adjusted for opponent. The Davidson game is a good anecdotal example of this. That's why Duke is favored, even in Chapel Hill.

Also, the reason why WV is favored to beat Pittsburgh is that so far, WV has had the #1 defense and the #9 offense in the country (in terms of points/possession), even after adjusting for opponents played. Sometimes, its not a matter of who you've played but how you perform with the teams on your schedule.