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  1. #1

    Need to be a 1st Rounder Escapes Me

    I understand that a 1st rounder gets a guaranteed contract and will play in the Association. However they are also salary capped for several years. A really good NBA level player who is drafted in the 2nd round can negotiate a shorter term deal and when he proves his worth get the big bucks sooner than the first rounder. Am I correct? It seems the real value is for those who are not really good NBA players to get a few years and some pretty good money. However the very good players who are taken in the 2nd round get the big money sooner.

    Carlos Boozer was a 2nd rounder. He played 13 years in the NBA. While there was controversy he started making the big bucks in year 3. Which of these 1st rounders do you think made more money than Carlos?

    Nikoloz Tskitishvili
    Dajuan Wagner
    Marcus Haislip

    etc.

    SoCal

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalDukeFan View Post
    I understand that a 1st rounder gets a guaranteed contract and will play in the Association. However they are also salary capped for several years. A really good NBA level player who is drafted in the 2nd round can negotiate a shorter term deal and when he proves his worth get the big bucks sooner than the first rounder. Am I correct? It seems the real value is for those who are not really good NBA players to get a few years and some pretty good money. However the very good players who are taken in the 2nd round get the big money sooner.

    Carlos Boozer was a 2nd rounder. He played 13 years in the NBA. While there was controversy he started making the big bucks in year 3. Which of these 1st rounders do you think made more money than Carlos?

    Nikoloz Tskitishvili
    Dajuan Wagner
    Marcus Haislip

    etc.

    SoCal
    Just on sheer numbers, the success rate of a 1st rounder verse a 2nd rounder is huge. There's like magnitudes between the two. For every Boozer, or Jokic or Arenas or Burnson there are literally 50-75 players that don't make a second contract. The new CBA now allows teams to sign a 2nd rounder exception to 3 or 4 years at just above the league minimal. The most promising 2nds will be there. That's going to further extend the timeline for a 2nd rounder that does find success to get their bag.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    The NBA is also really good at figuring out who is a player who will succeed in the league. Guys tend to get drafted in the first round because teams are more confident in their success than in 2nd round draft picks. So, unless you are suggesting that a player should tank their college career so as to fool the NBA into not knowing how good they are, the better players are likely going to end up first round picks anyway.

    Oh, and only a small percentage of first rounders even get that super lucrative max second contract. The notion that a guy would rather go in the second round -- with less guaranteed money and fewer opportunities to get playing time -- than the first because it might allow him to get a second contract a year quicker is kinda ludicrous. Sure, it works out for maybe 1 out of every 100 second round picks, but for the other 99 getting any guaranteed money is a big deal.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Atlanta, GA/Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The NBA is also really good at figuring out who is a player who will succeed in the league. Guys tend to get drafted in the first round because teams are more confident in their success than in 2nd round draft picks. So, unless you are suggesting that a player should tank their college career so as to fool the NBA into not knowing how good they are, the better players are likely going to end up first round picks anyway.

    Oh, and only a small percentage of first rounders even get that super lucrative max second contract. The notion that a guy would rather go in the second round -- with less guaranteed money and fewer opportunities to get playing time -- than the first because it might allow him to get a second contract a year quicker is kinda ludicrous. Sure, it works out for maybe 1 out of every 100 second round picks, but for the other 99 getting any guaranteed money is a big deal.
    To put this into perspective a bit more, there are currently only TWO active Duke NBA players who were drafted in the second round - Tre Jones and Gary Trent Jr.

  5. #5
    Also being a 1st round pick means teams will invest more in you to succeed, such as playing time, etc. A second round pick doesn't get nearly as much, so you have to sink or swim on your own.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    A different angle… it might be true that the really outrageous money is in the 2nd contract, but a successful first rounder will make at least $12 million over those 4 years of the 1st contract. Lottery picks make a whole lot more.**

    For anyone starting out as a 20 year old with no assets, that’s a whole lot of money, even after paying for taxes, toys, agents, and houses. Unless they’re truly unstable and incapable of following some basic rules, they should be able to buy whatever they want and sock a chunk into a stock fund. Adjusted for inflation, and calculated at a modestly conservative rate of 7% appreciation plus dividends, $2 million leads to $15m in current dollars by the time they hit their early 50’s. And that’s assuming they never contributed another penny after age 23. Well, it also assumes they make a living at something, don’t withdraw from that retirement fund, etc.

    It seems to me that first $12m is vastly more valuable than the next $50m

    **it is true that only the first 2 years are guaranteed, and the 3rd and 4th years pay more, but I think it’s rare for guys not to play at least those 4 years.

    https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/07/...oogle_vignette

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalDukeFan View Post
    I understand that a 1st rounder gets a guaranteed contract and will play in the Association. However they are also salary capped for several years. A really good NBA level player who is drafted in the 2nd round can negotiate a shorter term deal and when he proves his worth get the big bucks sooner than the first rounder. Am I correct? It seems the real value is for those who are not really good NBA players to get a few years and some pretty good money. However the very good players who are taken in the 2nd round get the big money sooner.

    Carlos Boozer was a 2nd rounder. He played 13 years in the NBA. While there was controversy he started making the big bucks in year 3. Which of these 1st rounders do you think made more money than Carlos?

    Nikoloz Tskitishvili
    Dajuan Wagner
    Marcus Haislip

    etc.

    SoCal
    As many have pointed out, this analysis fails to account for the much greater failure rate of second rounders to stay in the League.

    The Sports Analytics Group Berkeley has done a study looking at the fate of second round draftees (Trash or Treasure? An Analysis of NBA Second Round Picks). Over 75% of lottery picks are still in the League five years later. That drops to about 43% in non-lottery first rounders. And only around 20% of second rounders are still playing. While the money is a factor, the biggest reason to try and make it into the first round is that it would give objective confirmation that you are significantly more talented than a second rounder. That's what really counts.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    For a player and his camp to put in place a scheme to be a 2nd rounder rather than a 1st (a) makes one wonder about his integrity and competitive ss as a player and (b) is too clever by half, as the saying goes. If a player, by accident or injury, ends up "killing it" as a 2nd rounder (Miles, quit blushing!), then it's just weird -- not a path to seek out.

    IMHO (that H is long gone) and YMMV.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    got a couple of second rounders mowing my lawn this week.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The NBA is also really good at figuring out who is a player who will succeed in the league.
    That's because when they decide not to give you a job, you don't succeed in the league by having a job.

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