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Thread: Israel and Iran

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluedevilwildcats View Post
    The common denominator is they are allies of the US. Same with Japan and several of its neighbors.

    Plenty of things to complain about with this country but its ability to have productive relationships around the world is something I admire.
    The common denominator that is more relevant is that they are Sunni. They hate and fear the Shiites in Iran so much they sided with Israel against them.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    The common denominator that is more relevant is that they are Sunni. They hate and fear the Shiites in Iran so much they sided with Israel against them.
    AKA, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by bluedevilwildcats View Post
    The common denominator is they are allies of the US. Same with Japan and several of its neighbors.
    Yes but historically they havenít supported Isreal. Now they were physically defending them. There has been a thawing out between the Sunni world and Isreal over the last twenty years out of necessity. Iran didnít like that because they can feel the vise around them tighten. Thatís why they continue to support these terror groups against both the Saudis and Israelis. Thatís why they fund and aid Hamas. Saudi Arabia and Isreal would probably have had official diplomatic recognition if not full ties by now if not for the attack of October 7th. The dirty open secret is that the greater Arab world doesnít give a damn about Palestine. Itís always been a pawn in a bigger chess game. Iranís calculation was that those ties would be broken because of the traditional position of the Arab world. Thatís not the case. Itís only slowed it down. Saudi Arabia has been transitioning to a world thatís no longer Unipolar (US) or Bipolar (US & China) to a multipolar landscape. They are going to take friends wherever they can get them regardless of the new friends relationship with the US. It helps if they are a US ally but itís no longer a prerequisite. The danger now is does Iran act liked a trapped animal or revert back to run a hand full of proxy wars. Iíd guess the later at least until they have a real nuclear weapon. Thatís when the next chapter beginsÖor the book ends.

    Quote Originally Posted by duke74 View Post
    AKA, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
    Especially when your new friend has nuclear weapons
       

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Especially when your new friend has nuclear weapons
    More importantly, especially when youíre worried about your enemy developing nuclear weapons of their own. The outbreak of direct conflict with Iran and Israel has obscured one of the other dangers for the ME region. Saudi Arabia is terrified of a nuclear-armed Iran. Iranís nuclear weapons program is already close and if they take the final step, it will be very difficult for the US to convince Saudi Arabia to depend on our nuclear umbrella. If Saudi Arabia responds with a nuclear weapons program of their own, you could have 3 nuclear-armed states with historical animosity in close geographical proximity, and at least 2 of the 3 will be developing nuclear security and command and control systems on the fly. There are way too many ways for that scenario to go sideways.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Yes but historically they havenít supported Isreal.
    Historically, Jordan has been more supportive of Israel than people tend to realize - at least if you look at the leadership/royal family (sometimes at great personal risk and effort - the king flew to Israel in '73 to try, somewhat in vain, to warn of the impending attack). They have tended to be quiet about it because it doesn't always align with other practical politics.

    Part of what is interesting is the change in public-facing responses on their part (along with the Saudis, etc.)
       

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by BLPOG View Post
    Historically, Jordan has been more supportive of Israel than people tend to realize - at least if you look at the leadership/royal family (sometimes at great personal risk and effort - the king flew to Israel in '73 to try, somewhat in vain, to warn of the impending attack). They have tended to be quiet about it because it doesn't always align with other practical politics.

    Part of what is interesting is the change in public-facing responses on their part (along with the Saudis, etc.)
    Absolutely true but of note Jordan depends on Israel for water (by treaty since 1994). Kind of hard to bite the hand that quenches you.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    If Bush 2 would have been more cautious we might have Saddam to help bring down Iran. Yes, I get that Saddam was a horrible human being, but he could have been useful to us in dealing with Iran.
    Saddam was a little heavy and had a Y chromosome. His nativity was 87ya, so I'm not real optimistic he'd still be around, even if the USA hadn't stepped on him.
       

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Yes but historically they haven’t supported Isreal. Now they were physically defending them. There has been a thawing out between the Sunni world and Isreal over the last twenty years out of necessity. Iran didn’t like that because they can feel the vise around them tighten. That’s why they continue to support these terror groups against both the Saudis and Israelis. That’s why they fund and aid Hamas. Saudi Arabia and Isreal would probably have had official diplomatic recognition if not full ties by now if not for the attack of October 7th. The dirty open secret is that the greater Arab world doesn’t give a damn about Palestine. It’s always been a pawn in a bigger chess game. Iran’s calculation was that those ties would be broken because of the traditional position of the Arab world. That’s not the case. It’s only slowed it down. Saudi Arabia has been transitioning to a world that’s no longer Unipolar (US) or Bipolar (US & China) to a multipolar landscape. They are going to take friends wherever they can get them regardless of the new friends relationship with the US. It helps if they are a US ally but it’s no longer a prerequisite. The danger now is does Iran act liked a trapped animal or revert back to run a hand full of proxy wars. I’d guess the later at least until they have a real nuclear weapon. That’s when the next chapter begins…or the book ends.
    Well put. The timing of Oct 7th was motivated by the thawing. One minor quibble. It's "Israel" not "Isreal".

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Saddam was a little heavy and had a Y chromosome. His nativity was 87ya, so I'm not real optimistic he'd still be around, even if the USA hadn't stepped on him.
    In the strange bedfellows category, Israel and Iran were allied through the 80s because of Saddam even after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. They saw him as the bigger threat which was proven true during the first Gulf War. Previously, the relationship with the Shah was quite close. Iran recognized Israel pretty early in the 50s. After the revolution Israel maintained covert ties with Iran even after publicly ending diplomatic ties. It was to the point that Israel partly funded Iran in the war with Iraq and sold them weapons. They even secretly helped Iran destroy a nuclear reaction in Iraq in '80 or '81. Things didn't go completely sideways until the 90s when Khamenei was made Supreme leader and the clerics started to exert more influence.

    Quote Originally Posted by duke74 View Post
    Well put. The timing of Oct 7th was motivated by the thawing. One minor quibble. It's "Israel" not "Isreal".
    Apologies. Also noted by another poster in PMs (thanks).

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Saddam was a little heavy and had a Y chromosome. His nativity was 87ya, so I'm not real optimistic he'd still be around, even if the USA hadn't stepped on him.
    I don't disagree.

    Bush 41 left Saddam in power as a buffer against Iran, the much bigger threat in the region.

    Bush 43, in addition to believing the WMD hogwash, also wanted to get rid of Saddam, a Sunni in a majority Shia Iraq. Smart guy with very bad instincts. So, basically, Iran has been the dominant force in Iraq for years.
       

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Apologies. Also noted by another poster in PMs (thanks).
    Apologies back at you. Should have PMed. Wasnít calling you out.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by duke74 View Post
    Apologies back at you. Should have PMed. Wasnít calling you out.
    All good mate. We both are still recovering from our team bottling it up this weekend😀 and maybe this afternoon 😔.
    Last edited by Kdogg; 04-17-2024 at 06:51 AM.
       

  13. #53
    So much for deescalation? It's either Israel getting in the last shot or a tipping point.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    So much for deescalation? It's either Israel getting in the last shot or a tipping point.
    I'm betting tipping point.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I'm betting tipping point.
    That's the fear but it doesn't make sense. Nobody really wants this except for the most fringe and radical people. Bibi is in trouble and this would help shore up the far right but at an unbearable cost. Even if the targets are strategic Iran basically called a timeout. Now protocol would dictate that they respond even though they really don't want to. This pissing match is going to drag everyone.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    That's the fear but it doesn't make sense. .
    War rarely does. Israel dealt with Iran's response last week in a totally fine manner. The Iron Dome showed off, nobody got hurt, Iran was able to show the folks at home they didn't take it lying down. (Not defending Iran, but remember their "attack" was in response to Israel killing their guy.)

    That was a perfect ending. But Israel decided it could be perfecter, and now things may very well get really ugly.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    That's the fear but it doesn't make sense. Nobody really wants this except for the most fringe and radical people. Bibi is in trouble and this would help shore up the far right but at an unbearable cost. Even if the targets are strategic Iran basically called a timeout. Now protocol would dictate that they respond even though they really don't want to. This pissing match is going to drag everyone.
    We've seen previously in this country the results of a fundamentally immoral person coming to power. But not even Trump could get a good chunk of world cheering for Hamas and now Iran. Bibi's in a class of one.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluedevilwildcats View Post
    We've seen previously in this country the results of a fundamentally immoral person coming to power. But not even Trump could get a good chunk of world cheering for Hamas and now Iran. Bibi's in a class of one.
    Let's at least be realistic and replace the bolded with "sympathy for Gaza".
    Hamas released horrors, nobody is cheering for them.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    War rarely does. Israel dealt with Iran's response last week in a totally fine manner. The Iron Dome showed off, nobody got hurt, Iran was able to show the folks at home they didn't take it lying down. (Not defending Iran, but remember their "attack" was in response to Israel killing their guy.)

    That was a perfect ending. But Israel decided it could be perfecter, and now things may very well get really ugly.
    And thatís the thing. Israel had an out. Everyone had one. When you engage in a war thereís a logic behind it. Sometimes a party can used flawed logic or stupid logic but thisÖthis is a complete lack of logic. Is it that important to get the last word in? This tit-for-tat dynamic is going to blow up in everyoneís face eventually.
       

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Let's at least be realistic and replace the bolded with "sympathy for Gaza".
    Hamas released horrors, nobody is cheering for them.
    Yeah for sure, good call.

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