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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Reminder:

    Nobody.

    Knows.

    Anything.

    It will play put how it plays out, and everyone who has confidently predicted What Will Absolutely Happen will be absolutely wrong.
    Jon knows a lot since he is adding 6 scholarship players, He knows we have a maximum of 7 returning scholarship players. He probably knows which ones are leaving. To be a formidable team next year, we will need experienced ball handlers. Of those, Proctor and Foster appear to be the candidates for filling that need.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    It’s not as if the topic of this thread began tonight. We’ve been speculating for weeks, because we’re fanatics for Duke bball. In part, this new thread itself, while an irritant to some, is grief therapy for others. Logically, perhaps morally, we should not grieve losing even an important game. But we do. It’s pathetic. We’re pathetic. Bball fanaticism is pathetic. I’m guilty.

    Just for now, this post, I’ll focus only on next season’s PG possibilities. As the incoming class includes no PG, who stays/goes among Roach, Proctor, and Foster is a major issue. (I ignore Blakes here, as he’s no PG.)

    Although a week or so back, most of us assumed Foster would surely return, that doesn’t seem certain now. My guess — guess — is that Foster is unlikely to return if Proctor returns. Although I’ve little doubt that they could log major minutes on the court together, I’d guess both see themselves as future NBA PGs. Foster surely wants to start (somewhere) at PG, and cannot be assured of doing so if Proctor returns. Otoh, if Proctor declares, I’d be really surprised to see Foster transfer. I doubt Foster’s decision depends at all on whether Roach returns. I’ll guess Proctor’s decision does not depend on what either Foster or Roach does.

    Roach’s return would threaten neither Proctor nor Foster, as he seems comfortable as a combo-mostly-2-guard. But in the (unlikely?) event that both Proctor and Foster leave, a possibly returning Jeremy would be the PG.

    Returning any 2 of those 3 would pretty much fill Duke’s PG slot. Returning only 1 would be a sticky prospect, as by default Knueppel becomes the backup PG.

    All 3 leave? Until recently, unthinkable, mainly because the #1 class, Flagg/Maluach, etc., doesn’t include a PG. It would be unsettling, perplexing in the extreme, if none of Proctor, Foster, or Roach wanted to lead next year’s team.
    Thanks for this. This post is therapy, so any persecution of this thread as too early (it may indeed be) takes away our key way to cope. Jay Williams said that Duke losses are like a death in the family. While dramatic, of course, it’s relatable.

    In the scenario in which all of foster, roach, and proctor are gone, then we will be in bad shape and will have to find a way through the portal somehow. To not have good returning guards would waste a year of Cooper and Maluach. I’ll bet Jon already knows Roach is gone and will convince Foster and Proctor to stay.

  3. #83
    Proctor and Foster almost certain to return? Roach I have a feeling will use his covid year to return as well.

    NIL changes everything. Especially if you're not even projected as a 2nd round pick.

    But I'm thinking that Mitchell, Blakes, Schutt and Reeves are all gone.

  4. #84
    I would say Proctor, Foster, and Stewart are most likely to return. I read somewhere Schutt already said hes coming back next year. If you return Proctor, Foster, and Stewart along with Schutt that leaves you 3 spots left. Proctor wasn't a horrible 3 point shooter on the year 35% which is doable. Foster was 40%. If these 4 come back I would say the team needs would be.
    A backup guard ( Someone who can come in and play 10-12 minutes a game
    A 3 and D wing guy. Mitchell can be this guy but I'd rather get someone who can possible start and is a 35% better shooter from outside.
    A backup big. Give me a 6'10 big body guy who can play 10-12 minutes a night.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehk View Post

    But I'm thinking that Mitchell, Blakes, Schutt and Reeves are all gone.
    And additionally, one of Foster/Proctor are gone. But I only know as much as everyone else on the Board.

    My hope is that Roach returns.

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Reminder:

    Nobody.

    Knows.

    Anything.

    It will play put how it plays out, and everyone who has confidently predicted What Will Absolutely Happen will be absolutely wrong.
    Rule of bulletin boards: Less knowledge --> More posts.
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    Last edited by camion; 04-01-2024 at 07:46 AM.

  7. #87
    I would look at transfer portal. If one of Roach, Proctor or Foster comes back to go with impressive recruiting class, we can certainly make the final four but if we want to win it all….

    The transfer portal has its fingerprints all over it.

    Sears (transfer from Ohio), Kolek (transfer from George Mason), Love (transfer from UNC), Nembhard (transfer from Creighton) and Newton (transfer from East Carolina) are among the top portal success stories.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    Rule of bulletin boards: Less knowledge --> More posts.
    “Often wrong, never in doubt.”

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    Sounds like you are potentially disputing Jason Evans reporting.
    Jason has made it clear there are no certainties, just leanings.

    -jk

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Jason has made it clear there are no certainties, just leanings.

    -jk
    Absolutely. Wasn’t trying to indicate otherwise.

  11. #91
    i don't understand all this insistence that Caleb "wants to be the lead/PG" talk. He played that role some this year, and mostly after Proctor had injuries, and then when he did he wasn't particularly good at it. He wasn't bad, but it's not like he looked like a natural fit for it. He was a decent caretaker of the ball, but he was not good at initiating offense, and he was not good at breaking down the defense either for passing or for scoring. He was a decent guard, a good backup even, but this talk of rather having him over Proctor is just over the top recency bias.
    Some of the same people saying Foster wants to be the lead guard or main PG for the team are the same people who are saying that he was so good that he would for sure be 1-n-done. Well, that didn't happen either.

  12. #92
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    We’re predicting all of this movement based on hypothetical playing time and the need to clear up the roster? I don’t think a single player has made a comment about returning or not returning, except to say that they intend to stay at Duke.

    It’s clear that a Duke player can be a lottery pick without being a starter—as long as they show their stuff as a member of the rotation. I imagine the staff has more knowledge than we do, but they don’t talk a lot. No one on here has been doing any “reporting.” Even Jason, a journalist, is going with his overview; maybe he’s heard something we haven’t, but he’s not saying he has direct info.

    Even the “obvious” decisions aren’t obvious to me. Flip is an A student at Duke, obviously likes school, and prioritizes legacy. It’d be hard to turn down the nba, but he already did it once. McCain looks like a lottery pick, but do we really see him as a cookie cutter guy who always does the expected? And that’s just the 2 guys we’ve already got fitted for their draft night suits.

    Foster isn’t leaving the rotation next year. We’ve shown we can play effectively with a couple of PG’s. He doesn’t have to leave if Proctor or Jeremy return (or both).

    And I don’t know how we’re anticipating pt for the incoming freshmen; two will be likely starters, but we can’t know how well or quickly any of the freshmen will play to their hs tapes; I will say it seems unwise to underestimate K2.

    For all the rest, who knows? Mitchell has something going on, but I haven’t heard what. Who’s happy or unhappy at Duke, in NC, with the team, with the coaches? they never say. Most of us have a price, so we can get seduced, but most of us also tend to stay where we are. Proctor may have “decided” a year ago to give college exactly one more year, but he’d be entitled to change his mind. Any of our players might be offered a big NIL guarantee somewhere, but so might Scheyer; he may have a perfect spot at Duke, but what would he do if asked to coach the Bulls?

    In the meantime, I’d be hesitant to sound like we’re running people off.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    K2 is a consensus top 20 recruit who was being recruited to be a starter and featured star at places like Wisconsin and UVA. And you think he isn't coming to Duke expecting to play?!?! Let's be clear -- Kon is a higher rated recruit than Caleb Foster was a year ago (I know recruiting rankings are not perfect).

    Harris, who won the MVP award at the Peach Jam this past spring, may be a bit more of a developmental guy -- he's only ranked in the top 50 and isn't going to be an explosive athlete nor a guy who beats you off the dribble from day one -- but I would expect him to fight to carve out minutes as a designated shooter. Then again, I thought Power would do the same and he barely scratched the rotation (and is now at least somewhat likely to leave to find playing time elsewhere).
    I'm glad you brought up Power because his usage is basically what I see us getting from K2 next year. If not, then either K2 is much, much better than I think he is or this team is in a lot of trouble due to lack of options at guard.
    "Just be you. You is Enough."

  14. #94
    I have two concerns. First, that Scheyer has to reach a compromise with the admissions office regarding transfers. Duke cannot compete in this New World without being able to bring in at least minimally qualified transfers.

    Second, recent history tells us that even 5 star freshman may not deserve to start or even play. In general, they simply aren't ready for the physicality of today's college game. Look at Proctor--he can stand up to it now, but it took at least a season, maybe more for him to get to that point.

    I am quite sure not one freshman (except Cooper of course) has been promised playing time and there is no way of knowing whether any of the others, Maluach included, will be ready to play more than 20 minutes a game at least for the first part of the season. Therefore, I can't see any returning players being scared off by incoming freshmen, other than that Flagg will get as many minutes as he can handle.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    We’re predicting all of this movement based on hypothetical playing time and the need to clear up the roster? I don’t think a single player has made a comment about returning or not returning, except to say that they intend to stay at Duke.

    It’s clear that a Duke player can be a lottery pick without being a starter—as long as they show their stuff as a member of the rotation. I imagine the staff has more knowledge than we do, but they don’t talk a lot. No one on here has been doing any “reporting.” Even Jason, a journalist, is going with his overview; maybe he’s heard something we haven’t, but he’s not saying he has direct info.

    Even the “obvious” decisions aren’t obvious to me. Flip is an A student at Duke, obviously likes school, and prioritizes legacy. It’d be hard to turn down the nba, but he already did it once. McCain looks like a lottery pick, but do we really see him as a cookie cutter guy who always does the expected? And that’s just the 2 guys we’ve already got fitted for their draft night suits.

    Foster isn’t leaving the rotation next year. We’ve shown we can lay effectively with a couple of PG’s. He doesn’t have to leave if Proctor or Jeremy return (or both).

    And I don’t know how we’re anticipating pt for the incoming freshmen; two will be likely starters, but we can’t know how well or quickly any of the freshmen will play to their hs tapes; I will say it seems unwise to underestimate K2.

    For all the rest, who knows? Most of us have a price, so we can get seduced, but most of us also tend to stay where we are. Proctor may have “decided” a year ago to give college exactly one more year, but he’d be entitled to change his mind. Any of our players might be offered a big NIL guarantee somewhere, but so might Scheyer; he may have a perfect spot at Duke, but what would he do if asked coach the Bulls?

    In the meantime, I’d be hesitant to sound like we’re running people off.
    The math is simple. At least 4 guys (not including Young and Begovich) are leaving. This, at a very minimum is a given: we have 17 scholarship recruits/players with eligibility, and we can only carry 13. And I would guess that it will be more than 4 guys leaving. Perhaps a lot more. I have my thoughts on which ones it might be, but realistically ANY of the guys on the roster could go. You can make a case for almost anyone staying, but the case is just as easy (if not easier) for anyone to exit.

    This year will be an interesting piece of evidence. To date, we've only seen if NIL can be successful in encouraging fringe NBA prospects to stay for another year. Guys like Flip and Proctor and to a lesser degree Roach and Mitchell stayed around, likely because of NIL. But we haven't seen if it can encourage guys who didn't play major minutes to stick around. It makes sense that NIL would help keep the fringe guys in school. But it remains to be seen (and, frankly, I'm not sure why it would make a difference) in keeping 5-star recruit around. Those guys could get NIL anywhere. So this year will be a test for guys like Power and Stewart, who played sparingly this year and may have difficult paths to major minutes at Duke next year.

    My suspicion is that the days of building a program of continuity are ending/have ended. NIL and the freedom of transfer rules have made college bball a constant free agency situation. I think NIL will continue to help keep starters around a bit longer, but I have more concern that we are about to find out that 5-star recruits aren't going to sit the bench and "wait their turn" when they can get playing time AND NIL money elsewhere (and perhaps get MORE NIL money by being starters/stars elsewhere). Maybe Scheyer will be able to defy the odds on this, but I do have concerns that it won't work. It just doesn't seem realistic to me that 4- and 5-star recruits are going to patiently wait their turn anymore, now that they can transfer freely and that there is immediate financial incentive to do so. But, time will tell.

    So I won't speculate as to which guys will exit. But I'd guess it will be something like 7-8 of the 11 current guys (not including Begovich, who I think still has a year of eligibility? but is basically a walk-on) with eligibility remaining. And we'll then add 1-2 transfers, likely of the grad transfer variety and likely of the caliber of John/Grandison/Young.

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    I'm glad you brought up Power because his usage is basically what I see us getting from K2 next year. If not, then either K2 is much, much better than I think he is or this team is in a lot of trouble due to lack of options at guard.
    I see Knueppel as a SF and smallball PF. I don't think he's a SG.

    That said, I think Jason's point is that top-20 recruits are almost always going to think they're good enough to play right away. Those guys have been stars for years, and the confidence needed to be that highly rated a prospect translates to confidence that you'll be a regular rotation player. And, frankly, on most teams, they will be. It's just that on a team with 8-9 5-star recruits, it's likely that one or two won't be in the rotation. We just don't necessarily know which one(s) yet. And then the question is whether those guys are willing to wait it out once they experience it.

  17. #97
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    scottdude8 is online now Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    As we enter the part of the season that probably gives us all the most anxiety, I think it's probably useful for us to give ourselves a bit of a "reset" to what we expected to happen after this season. We all knew Flip was bookmarked for the first round of the draft and that this would be his last season at Duke. We also widely expected Tyrese and Mark to be gone after this year considering they were projected to be second round-ish guys last year, and historically those type of guys only delay the NBA for so long. Given that Jeremy flirted with going pro last year, we expected him to be a "true" senior and this to be his last go-around. We also thought that a guy like Jared had a chance to be a OAD based on the offseason buzz he was generating.

    We don't know what's going on behind the scenes with these guys and the program, but last fall we likely would've expected all our non-freshmen to be gone after this season.

    Now, did things go 100% according to plan for some of those guys, particularly Tyrese and Mark? Of course not. But if we lose one or both of them, that doesn't immediately invalidate Jon's roster building strategy or kill the excitement for next season before it starts. Returning one of those two guys would be a HUGE bonus.

    Same for Jeremy. I know some around here are optimistic he'll return based on the new world of NIL, but it'd also be 100% justifiable if he decided he was just ready to move on to the next stage of his life. That's an intensely personal decision.

    Now McCain is likely gone given that he's a projected first rounder. I always say I'll never begrudge a guy who plays his way into improving his draft stock for leaving, and that's exactly what Jared did... there's no way the Elite 8 run happens without him. But is he 100% sure gone? Not in the era of NIL. Not in the era where Kyle was projected to be drafted in the same range as Jared currently is last year and he chose to come back. Not when Jared is a very unique case, not only in his personality but also in his NIL situation.

    So I'm taking the perspective that any of those 5 who come back is a huge win for next year's team. I think it's more likely than not that we get at least one guy back just based on probabilities, but I'd be hard pressed to pick which one.

    The real question will be the other guys. Unless two of Jeremy, Tyrese, or Jared return, Caleb will be walking into a starting role next year. It would really sting if he turned that down to go elsewhere, but lest we forget there were always "rumblings" about him potentially decommitting during the recruiting process. He obviously didn't, but those rumblings don't come from nowhere, especially when they're so consistent. So that isn't 100%.

    Who knows what TJ is thinking. Obviously he didn't crack the rotation this year, but that's the norm for fringe 4/5* guys at Duke. If Jon sold him on a multiyear plan and can resell him on it this year, he'll be back. But in the current landscape, the grass is always greener, so we don't know what he's thinking.

    The key one to me is Sean. Sean had a role on this year's team, and should have a MUCH bigger one next year... I don't think it's outlandish to expect him to start at the beginning of next season as Maluach acclimates to the NCAA game, and if he eventually gets passed he'll still be a 20+ mpg guy as the primary backup at the 4 and 5. He has so much potential, and grew up a diehard Duke fan. I really want him in Durham next year.

    The TL;DR: you could squint at all of these situations, perhaps outside of Kyle, and convince yourself that each player could/should stay or go. I think that's all Jason has been trying to prepare us for: not that any one player is staying/leaving, but rather that there are no sure things anymore. But of these 7 or so not-sure-things, the odds say we should still get 2-3 of these guys back. That would still be a huge improvement over the OAD churn we had previously, which I hope we can appreciate.
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  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The math is simple. At least 4 guys (not including Young and Begovich) are leaving. This, at a very minimum is a given: we have 17 scholarship recruits/players with eligibility, and we can only carry 13. And I would guess that it will be more than 4 guys leaving. Perhaps a lot more. I have my thoughts on which ones it might be, but realistically ANY of the guys on the roster could go. You can make a case for almost anyone staying, but the case is just as easy (if not easier) for anyone to exit.

    This year will be an interesting piece of evidence. To date, we've only seen if NIL can be successful in encouraging fringe NBA prospects to stay for another year. Guys like Flip and Proctor and to a lesser degree Roach and Mitchell stayed around, likely because of NIL. But we haven't seen if it can encourage guys who didn't play major minutes to stick around. It makes sense that NIL would help keep the fringe guys in school. But it remains to be seen (and, frankly, I'm not sure why it would make a difference) in keeping 5-star recruit around. Those guys could get NIL anywhere. So this year will be a test for guys like Power and Stewart, who played sparingly this year and may have difficult paths to major minutes at Duke next year.

    My suspicion is that the days of building a program of continuity are ending/have ended. NIL and the freedom of transfer rules have made college bball a constant free agency situation. I think NIL will continue to help keep starters around a bit longer, but I have more concern that we are about to find out that 5-star recruits aren't going to sit the bench and "wait their turn" when they can get playing time AND NIL money elsewhere (and perhaps get MORE NIL money by being starters/stars elsewhere). Maybe Scheyer will be able to defy the odds on this, but I do have concerns that it won't work. It just doesn't seem realistic to me that 4- and 5-star recruits are going to patiently wait their turn anymore, now that they can transfer freely and that there is immediate financial incentive to do so. But, time will tell.

    So I won't speculate as to which guys will exit. But I'd guess it will be something like 7-8 of the 11 current guys (not including Begovich, who I think still has a year of eligibility? but is basically a walk-on) with eligibility remaining. And we'll then add 1-2 transfers, likely of the grad transfer variety and likely of the caliber of John/Grandison/Young.
    Agree with this - there are a number of players looking at limited playing time next year: Stewart, Mitchell, Schutt, Power, Blakes and even among the incoming freshman Kon, Ngonba, Harris are facing a log jam ahead of him. Will see if Scheyer can pull off something special to convince these guys to stay but I think we need to be prepared for a lot of departures and the potential to be a younger team next year.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I see Knueppel as a SF and smallball PF. I don't think he's a SG.

    That said, I think Jason's point is that top-20 recruits are almost always going to think they're good enough to play right away. Those guys have been stars for years, and the confidence needed to be that highly rated a prospect translates to confidence that you'll be a regular rotation player. And, frankly, on most teams, they will be. It's just that on a team with 8-9 5-star recruits, it's likely that one or two won't be in the rotation. We just don't necessarily know which one(s) yet. And then the question is whether those guys are willing to wait it out once they experience it.
    espn and Rivals list him as a sg. 24/7 lists him as a sf. Looks like he could fill in as a guard if needed. My hope is that we don't. Sure, as the 22nd ranked player it would make sense he comes in with the confidence of being able to contribute right away. I guess it is me that doesn't have that expectation at all for him in year 1. It's going to take him awhile to simply adapt to the speed of the college game, similar to Power's learning curve. And he's going to get torched on defense.
    "Just be you. You is Enough."

  20. #100
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    It's way too early to say who will stay or go, but it's fun to discuss it. Jason has seemed to suggest that maybe there will be several players leaving beyond those who lose eligibility. It seems that for Duke to have a team that will be Final Four talented, it needs a good point-guard. I see mention of Foster being given that position. However, I didn't see that from him this season. He was used to bring the ball up the court but he didn't show the ability to get others involved in the offense. His defense was ok and his shooting was real good. He looks more like a #2 guard than a point guard. I believe his family will play a role in what he does regarding staying or leaving. That my be the case in some of the other players as well. Stewart for example, looks like a PF not a center. Will he be willing to stay around and improve his shot? I don't expect he will be willing to wait beyond his sophomore year. Of the guards mentioned, I think Proctor is the best choice for the point-guard position. Roach and Foster look like 2 guards to me.

    GoDuke!

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