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  1. #1101
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Of course he has more information than me! But Jon can't have conversations with the freshman/sophomore player when that player is still a high schooler, which was my point. Guys can change their minds from when they agreed to said plan to when the plan would bear fruit.

    And no, I'm not presupposing they'll leave. I'm saying it is a risk, and that there's no guarantee it will work. That's a big step from presupposing that they'll leave. I do suspect some will. But only time will tell.



    We have been eliminated in the tournament each of the last two years in large part due to being young vs older more physical teams. There has been a cost. It has not been a cataclysmic cost by any means, but a cost. And it wasn't/isn't a necessary cost.

    The question is whether that cost is worth it. In other words, does what we gave up these past two years in terms of being young get paid back more handsomely if we succeed in a "get older internally" strategy? Maybe it will. I'm skeptical, but I hope it works out, whether we succeed in the "getting older internally" path or whether we have to switch gears and bring in more transfers.



    I'm cheering him on as a coach wholeheartedly. I'm cheering for Duke as a team wholeheartedly. And IF it works, I will continue to cheer him on. And IF it doesn't work, I'll continue to cheer him and Duke on wholeheartedly. I don't have to agree with every decision the coach has ever made in order to cheer him on. Just like I didn't agree with every decision Coach K made, but I still cheered him and Duke on and wouldn't have wanted any other coach.
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting we go all-in on the transfer portal a la Miami. I definitely want us to continue to land the Cooper Flaggs of the world. That's what separates us from the Miami's of the world: we can consistently land that elite talent. And I'm quite good with those top-15-30 recruits too! I'm just not sold on the idea that relying on the not-quite-elite top-30 recruits to wait their turn for 2 years and hope that those guys turn out to be impact players as juniors/seniors (alongside the one-and-dones) will work. And I'm skeptical about the idea that it will work better than having those juniors/seniors be comprised of transfers who have more game experience.

    Hopefully it works. And if it doesn't work, hopefully Scheyer will find success via another path. Either way, I'll cheer him and the team on.
    You’ve very much articulated my thoughts as well. In theory, I love the idea of recruiting a couple of absolutely great players each year, and recruiting some guys that theoretically might stick around to become really solid juniors and seniors. In theory. But I recognize the landscape has changed so much that type of team building might not play out to its optimum level without the benefit of some decent transfer portal additions. In fact, I would say it’s improbable we’re gonna see that play out optimally year in and year out. But if it works, great. And I will absolutely cheer Coach S and Duke on regardless.

    I guess I’m just saying I’m a bit skeptical that the plan SkyBrickey and others are advocating can actually work year in and year out. But I’ll keep my fingers crossed.

  2. #1102
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    You’ve very much articulated my thoughts as well. In theory, I love the idea of recruiting a couple of absolutely great players each year, and recruiting some guys that theoretically might stick around to become really solid juniors and seniors. In theory. But I recognize the landscape has changed so much that type of team building might not play out to its optimum level without the benefit of some decent transfer portal additions. In fact, I would say it’s improbable we’re gonna see that play out optimally year in and year out. But if it works, great. And I will absolutely cheer Coach S and Duke on regardless.

    I guess I’m just saying I’m a bit skeptical that the plan SkyBrickey and others are advocating can actually work year in and year out. But I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
    It's to be proven, for sure. But don't give me any credit for the plan. It's Jon's plan.

  3. #1103
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    To be completely honest, I'm not sure we are all that much in agreement on the broader point. As much as I prefer your view of the world, I'm pretty skeptical it will play out that way.

    For example on the bolded, what enjoyment exactly? We're currently returning 2 starters and only 4 players that played more than 100 minutes last year. While I will enjoy watching Tyrese, Caleb, Sean, and TJ (should he affirmatively return), I'm not sure how much different the end roster construction is versus our OAD-heavy roster strategies of the past decade.

    - Chillin
    I, for one, absolutely enjoy watching a player progress from year to year. We will never have it like we (and everyone else) used to, but I’m all for having some of it.

  4. #1104
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Wait are we even really frequently recruiting or depending on not-quite-elite top 30 recruits? Darren Harris (#37) this year, TJ Power (#32) last year and Jaden Schutt (#54) in 2022 were the only examples of this I could find in the last 5 years according to the ESPN rankings. Harris and Power are basically fringe top 30 who just ended up past that cutoff like while AJ Griffin and Mark Mitchell ended up on the right side of the top 30. Schutt is more of an aberration in our recruiting strategy but Jon must've really liked his potential.
    Yes, we are very much recruiting those not-quite-elite top-30 recruits: as in “top-30 but not quite elite,” not “not quite top-30”. We are talking about the recruits in the 15-30 range. Guys like Mitchell and Proctor (only rated by one recruiting service due to timing but was ~20 in that rating) from 2 years ago; Foster, Power, and Stewart (#15 in the RSCI), Foster (17), and Power (21) last year; Knuepoel, Evans (though he may move upwards out of this group), and Ngongba this year.

  5. #1105
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yes, we are very much recruiting those not-quite-elite top-30 recruits: as in “top-30 but not quite elite,” not “not quite top-30”. We are talking about the recruits in the 15-30 range. Guys like Mitchell and Proctor (only rated by one recruiting service due to timing but was ~20 in that rating) from 2 years ago; Foster, Power, and Stewart (#15 in the RSCI), Foster (17), and Power (21) last year; Knuepoel, Evans (though he may move upwards out of this group), and Ngongba this year.
    Power was a bit of an aberration last year but all the other players got meaningful to substantial playing time as freshmen.

    We"ll see how much PT K2, Evans and Ngongba get. I don't think any of these 3 guys were recruited to Duke with the expectation that they would be OAD so unless they blow up like Reed Sheppard or Clingan, they should be featured pieces as sophomores.

  6. #1106
    Jaden Schutt is entering the portal, per 247 Sports.

  7. #1107
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, D.C.

    Harris?

    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Power was a bit of an aberration last year but all the other players got meaningful to substantial playing time as freshmen.

    We"ll see how much PT K2, Evans and Ngongba get. I don't think any of these 3 guys were recruited to Duke with the expectation that they would be OAD so unless they blow up like Reed Sheppard or Clingan, they should be featured pieces as sophomores.
    I've seen conflicting reports on how highly ranked Evans is. ESPN has him at #7, which would certainly suggest he could be one and done, but I think other services have him ranked lower.

    This morning, I was discussing Duke's team next season with a friend who is quite knowledgeable about DC area basketball, and he thinks Harris will be hard to keep off the floor. That squares with what some people here think, despite Harris being ranked outside the top 30.

  8. #1108
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Jaden Schutt is entering the portal, per 247 Sports.
    I know it’s the new age college basketball but I just hate seeing all of these transfers

  9. #1109
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    Van Nuys, CA
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Jaden Schutt is entering the portal, per 247 Sports.
    Too bad. He has good potential but too many competing for his position. Hope he has a good future at his next destination.

  10. #1110
    Schutt and Reeves in particular seem to personify the tricky situation in which is seems we're stuck. We recruit players who are projected to contribute by their junior years at the soonest, who then choose to move on when it seems unlikely they won't get meaningful playing time by their sophomore year--which wasn't supposed to happen anyway. Then they'll wind up somewhere where they're likely to get meaningful playing time...by their junior year.

  11. #1111
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I've seen conflicting reports on how highly ranked Evans is. ESPN has him at #7, which would certainly suggest he could be one and done, but I think other services have him ranked lower.

    This morning, I was discussing Duke's team next season with a friend who is quite knowledgeable about DC area basketball, and he thinks Harris will be hard to keep off the floor. That squares with what some people here think, despite Harris being ranked outside the top 30.
    Darren Harris is rated #37 at ESPN. Isaiah Evans is the Duke commit who is rated #7.

  12. #1112
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Darren Harris is rated #37 at ESPN. Isaiah Evans is the Duke commit who is rated #7.
    Yes, that’s exactly what I wrote.

  13. #1113
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Yes, that’s exactly what I wrote.
    Oh, my bad. I totally misread that post. Sorry!

  14. #1114
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by heyman25 View Post
    Too bad. He has good potential but too many competing for his position. Hope he has a good future at his next destination.
    Unlike in the NBA draft, potential apparently counts for very little in college.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #1115
    Quote Originally Posted by fgb View Post
    Schutt and Reeves in particular seem to personify the tricky situation in which is seems we're stuck. We recruit players who are projected to contribute by their junior years at the soonest, who then choose to move on when it seems unlikely they won't get meaningful playing time by their sophomore year--which wasn't supposed to happen anyway. Then they'll wind up somewhere where they're likely to get meaningful playing time...by their junior year.
    If Jon succeeds in recruiting and keeping guys in that 15-40 range, then I don't expect we will see many future recruits like Blakes, Reeves or Schutt. It just doesn't make sense for guys like this knowing they will be practice players for 4 years. I think all 3 of these guys were victims of this transition from OADs to a deeper bench of talented players.

    So where do our deep bench practice players come from in the future? Players 11, 12, 13? I would bet on the transfer of other Ivy/Northwestern/Stanford type players who value some NIL $ and a Fuqua certificate. That's a pretty good pipeline for quality practice players and locker room guys.

  16. #1116
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    If Jon succeeds in recruiting and keeping guys in that 15-40 range, then I don't expect we will see many future recruits like Blakes, Reeves or Schutt. It just doesn't make sense for guys like this knowing they will be practice players for 4 years. I think all 3 of these guys were victims of this transition from OADs to a deeper bench of talented players.

    So where do our deep bench practice players come from in the future? Players 11, 12, 13? I would bet on the transfer of other Ivy/Northwestern/Stanford type players who value some NIL $ and a Fuqua certificate. That's a pretty good pipeline for quality practice players and locker room guys.
    The "goldilocks" strategy is going to be very, very difficult to achieve. In the age of the transfer portal, as CDu has noted, it is an extremely difficult task to hone in (1-2 years or more out) on players who will be (i) good enough to play meaningful minutes at Duke as Fr.-So. and not go pro, or (ii) not quite good enough to play meaningful minutes as Fr.-So. but (a) get enough PT that they don't transfer and (b) develop into starting level players as Jrs. and Srs., and/or (iii) come in not expecting to play meaningful minutes as underclassmen, still feel that way after two seasons of not playing much, but also develop into that level of player as Jr./Sr.

    The recent history of the two classes affected by the new world order of the portal show just how difficult it is to reliably “get old” with homegrown players, while still contending for championships?

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2021 (rising Seniors) per 247 composite:

    23 (14 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Chet Holmgren, #2 Paolo Banchero, #3 Shaedon Sharp, #4 Jaden Hardy, #6 Jalen Duren, #7 Jabari Smith, #8 Patrick Baldwin, #9 Kennedy Chandler, #10 Scoot Henderson, #11 Caleb Houstan, #12 Peyton Watson, #13 JD Davison, #14 Kendall Brown, #15 TyTy Washington, #17 Moussa Diabate, #18 AJ Griffin, #20 Max Christie, #22 Michael Foster, #23 Trevor Keels, #24 Aminu Mohammed, #35 Charles Bediako, #38 Malaki Branham, #45 Josh Minott

    1 two and done at initial school: #46 Kobe Bufkin

    16 Transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Emoni Bates, #16 Daimion Collins, #19 Harrison Ingram, #21 Hunter Sallis, #25 Matthew Cleveland, #26 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, #27 Efton Reid, #29 Bryce McGowens, #30 Tamar Bates, #31 Enoch Boakye, #36 Jaylon Tyson, #37 Tyrese Hunter, #39 Bryce Hopkins, #42 Kowacie Reeves, #47 Frankie Collins, #49 Arthur Kaluma

    10 played at least 3 seasons at initial school: #28 Nathan Bittle (though was injured this year), #32 Benny Williams (sort of – was dismissed early this season), #33 Nolan Hickman, #34 Manny Obaseki, #40 Jonas Aidoo, #41 Langston Love, #43 Jalen Warley, #44 Trey Kaufman-Renn, #48 DaRon Holmes, #50 Zach Clemence (sort of – redshirted this year at Kansas)

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2022 (rising Juniors) per 247 composite:

    19 (12 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Nick Smith, #2 Dariq Whitehead, #3 Dereck Lively,
    #6 GG Jackson, #8 Keyonte George, #9 Amari Bailey, #10 Cason Wallace, #11 Jarace Walker, #12 Chris Livingston, #13 Cam Whitmore, #14 Brandon Miller, #15 Julian Phillips, #17 Anthony Black, #19 Jordan Walsh, #22 Gradey Dick, #23 Jalen Hood-Schifino, #28 Leonard Miller, #43 Jett Howard, #46 London Johnson

    2 two and done at initial school: #4 Flip, #18 Adem Bona

    22 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Dillon Mitchell, #7 Kel'el Ware, #16 Arterio Morris, #20 Mark Mitchell, #21 JJ Starling, #24 Yohan Traore, #25 Vincent Iwuchukwu, #26 Jayden Bradley, #29 Kylan Boswell, #31 Ernest Udeh, #32 MJ Rice, #33 Skyy Clark, #35 Tarris Reed, #38 Seth Trimble, #39 Chance Westry, #41 Freddie Dilione, #42 Dior Johnson, #45 Isaiah Miranda, #47 Baba Miller, #48 Eljah Fisher, #49 Roddy Gayle, #50 Tre White

    7 will be Juniors this year at their initial school: #27 Tyrese Proctor, #30 Malik Reneau, #34 Tyrell Ward, #37 Collin Chandler (sort of – he will be a Fr. at BYU after having done a 2 year mission), #36 Ugonna Onyenso (maybe?), #40 Terrance Arceneaux, #44 Dylan Andrews.

    For just the purported sweet spot of players ranked between 16-30, it is:

    11 none and done or 1 and done: Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Leonard Miller, Moussa Diabate, AJ Griffin, Max Christie, Michael Foster, Trevor Keels, Aminu Mohammed

    1 two and done at initial school: Adem Bona

    15 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: Arterio Morris, Mark Mitchell, JJ Starling, Yohan Traore, Vincent Iwuchukwu, Jayden Bradley, Kylan Boswell, Daimion Collins, Harrison Ingram, Hunter Sallis, Matthew Cleveland, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Efton Reid, Bryce McGowens, Tamar Bates

    3 played (or will this upcoming season) at least 3 years at initial school: Tyrese Proctor, Malik Reneau, Nathan Bittle.


    So only 10% of players in the "goldilocks" range of the rankings have or will have stayed for at least 3 seasons with their initial school. Counting on getting 50% or more of players in that range of the rankings to both develop to be starting level players as upperclassmen and to stay at Duke to do seems to be a very high risk strategy.

  17. #1117
    Join Date
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    Seattle
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    The "goldilocks" strategy is going to be very, very difficult to achieve. In the age of the transfer portal, as CDu has noted, it is an extremely difficult task to hone in (1-2 years or more out) on players who will be (i) good enough to play meaningful minutes at Duke as Fr.-So. and not go pro, or (ii) not quite good enough to play meaningful minutes as Fr.-So. but (a) get enough PT that they don't transfer and (b) develop into starting level players as Jrs. and Srs., and/or (iii) come in not expecting to play meaningful minutes as underclassmen, still feel that way after two seasons of not playing much, but also develop into that level of player as Jr./Sr.

    The recent history of the two classes affected by the new world order of the portal show just how difficult it is to reliably “get old” with homegrown players, while still contending for championships?

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2021 (rising Seniors) per 247 composite:

    23 (14 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Chet Holmgren, #2 Paolo Banchero, #3 Shaedon Sharp, #4 Jaden Hardy, #6 Jalen Duren, #7 Jabari Smith, #8 Patrick Baldwin, #9 Kennedy Chandler, #10 Scoot Henderson, #11 Caleb Houstan, #12 Peyton Watson, #13 JD Davison, #14 Kendall Brown, #15 TyTy Washington, #17 Moussa Diabate, #18 AJ Griffin, #20 Max Christie, #22 Michael Foster, #23 Trevor Keels, #24 Aminu Mohammed, #35 Charles Bediako, #38 Malaki Branham, #45 Josh Minott

    1 two and done at initial school: #46 Kobe Bufkin

    16 Transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Emoni Bates, #16 Daimion Collins, #19 Harrison Ingram, #21 Hunter Sallis, #25 Matthew Cleveland, #26 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, #27 Efton Reid, #29 Bryce McGowens, #30 Tamar Bates, #31 Enoch Boakye, #36 Jaylon Tyson, #37 Tyrese Hunter, #39 Bryce Hopkins, #42 Kowacie Reeves, #47 Frankie Collins, #49 Arthur Kaluma

    10 played at least 3 seasons at initial school: #28 Nathan Bittle (though was injured this year), #32 Benny Williams (sort of – was dismissed early this season), #33 Nolan Hickman, #34 Manny Obaseki, #40 Jonas Aidoo, #41 Langston Love, #43 Jalen Warley, #44 Trey Kaufman-Renn, #48 DaRon Holmes, #50 Zach Clemence (sort of – redshirted this year at Kansas)

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2022 (rising Juniors) per 247 composite:

    19 (12 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Nick Smith, #2 Dariq Whitehead, #3 Dereck Lively,
    #6 GG Jackson, #8 Keyonte George, #9 Amari Bailey, #10 Cason Wallace, #11 Jarace Walker, #12 Chris Livingston, #13 Cam Whitmore, #14 Brandon Miller, #15 Julian Phillips, #17 Anthony Black, #19 Jordan Walsh, #22 Gradey Dick, #23 Jalen Hood-Schifino, #28 Leonard Miller, #43 Jett Howard, #46 London Johnson

    2 two and done at initial school: #4 Flip, #18 Adem Bona

    22 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Dillon Mitchell, #7 Kel'el Ware, #16 Arterio Morris, #20 Mark Mitchell, #21 JJ Starling, #24 Yohan Traore, #25 Vincent Iwuchukwu, #26 Jayden Bradley, #29 Kylan Boswell, #31 Ernest Udeh, #32 MJ Rice, #33 Skyy Clark, #35 Tarris Reed, #38 Seth Trimble, #39 Chance Westry, #41 Freddie Dilione, #42 Dior Johnson, #45 Isaiah Miranda, #47 Baba Miller, #48 Eljah Fisher, #49 Roddy Gayle, #50 Tre White

    7 will be Juniors this year at their initial school: #27 Tyrese Proctor, #30 Malik Reneau, #34 Tyrell Ward, #37 Collin Chandler (sort of – he will be a Fr. at BYU after having done a 2 year mission), #36 Ugonna Onyenso (maybe?), #40 Terrance Arceneaux, #44 Dylan Andrews.

    For just the purported sweet spot of players ranked between 16-30, it is:

    11 none and done or 1 and done: Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Leonard Miller, Moussa Diabate, AJ Griffin, Max Christie, Michael Foster, Trevor Keels, Aminu Mohammed

    1 two and done at initial school: Adem Bona

    15 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: Arterio Morris, Mark Mitchell, JJ Starling, Yohan Traore, Vincent Iwuchukwu, Jayden Bradley, Kylan Boswell, Daimion Collins, Harrison Ingram, Hunter Sallis, Matthew Cleveland, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Efton Reid, Bryce McGowens, Tamar Bates

    3 played (or will this upcoming season) at least 3 years at initial school: Tyrese Proctor, Malik Reneau, Nathan Bittle.


    So only 10% of players in the "goldilocks" range of the rankings have or will have stayed for at least 3 seasons with their initial school. Counting on getting 50% or more of players in that range of the rankings to both develop to be starting level players as upperclassmen and to stay at Duke to do seems to be a very high risk strategy.
    Great analysis. It seems the strategy would just be to go for the five stars that will leave after one or two years, not bother with anyone else outside of the range. Feel the remaining spots per year with transfers.

  18. #1118
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I've seen conflicting reports on how highly ranked Evans is. ESPN has him at #7, which would certainly suggest he could be one and done, but I think other services have him ranked lower.

    This morning, I was discussing Duke's team next season with a friend who is quite knowledgeable about DC area basketball, and he thinks Harris will be hard to keep off the floor. That squares with what some people here think, despite Harris being ranked outside the top 30.
    Evans is 13th in Giovanys mock for 2025. He won't be drafted nearly that high if Flagg is playing the 3 which is very likely to happen. I love Harris but I don't see more than 10min/game.

  19. #1119
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    The "goldilocks" strategy is going to be very, very difficult to achieve. In the age of the transfer portal, as CDu has noted, it is an extremely difficult task to hone in (1-2 years or more out) on players who will be (i) good enough to play meaningful minutes at Duke as Fr.-So. and not go pro, or (ii) not quite good enough to play meaningful minutes as Fr.-So. but (a) get enough PT that they don't transfer and (b) develop into starting level players as Jrs. and Srs., and/or (iii) come in not expecting to play meaningful minutes as underclassmen, still feel that way after two seasons of not playing much, but also develop into that level of player as Jr./Sr.

    The recent history of the two classes affected by the new world order of the portal show just how difficult it is to reliably “get old” with homegrown players, while still contending for championships?

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2021 (rising Seniors) per 247 composite:

    23 (14 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Chet Holmgren, #2 Paolo Banchero, #3 Shaedon Sharp, #4 Jaden Hardy, #6 Jalen Duren, #7 Jabari Smith, #8 Patrick Baldwin, #9 Kennedy Chandler, #10 Scoot Henderson, #11 Caleb Houstan, #12 Peyton Watson, #13 JD Davison, #14 Kendall Brown, #15 TyTy Washington, #17 Moussa Diabate, #18 AJ Griffin, #20 Max Christie, #22 Michael Foster, #23 Trevor Keels, #24 Aminu Mohammed, #35 Charles Bediako, #38 Malaki Branham, #45 Josh Minott

    1 two and done at initial school: #46 Kobe Bufkin

    16 Transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Emoni Bates, #16 Daimion Collins, #19 Harrison Ingram, #21 Hunter Sallis, #25 Matthew Cleveland, #26 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, #27 Efton Reid, #29 Bryce McGowens, #30 Tamar Bates, #31 Enoch Boakye, #36 Jaylon Tyson, #37 Tyrese Hunter, #39 Bryce Hopkins, #42 Kowacie Reeves, #47 Frankie Collins, #49 Arthur Kaluma

    10 played at least 3 seasons at initial school: #28 Nathan Bittle (though was injured this year), #32 Benny Williams (sort of – was dismissed early this season), #33 Nolan Hickman, #34 Manny Obaseki, #40 Jonas Aidoo, #41 Langston Love, #43 Jalen Warley, #44 Trey Kaufman-Renn, #48 DaRon Holmes, #50 Zach Clemence (sort of – redshirted this year at Kansas)

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2022 (rising Juniors) per 247 composite:

    19 (12 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Nick Smith, #2 Dariq Whitehead, #3 Dereck Lively,
    #6 GG Jackson, #8 Keyonte George, #9 Amari Bailey, #10 Cason Wallace, #11 Jarace Walker, #12 Chris Livingston, #13 Cam Whitmore, #14 Brandon Miller, #15 Julian Phillips, #17 Anthony Black, #19 Jordan Walsh, #22 Gradey Dick, #23 Jalen Hood-Schifino, #28 Leonard Miller, #43 Jett Howard, #46 London Johnson

    2 two and done at initial school: #4 Flip, #18 Adem Bona

    22 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Dillon Mitchell, #7 Kel'el Ware, #16 Arterio Morris, #20 Mark Mitchell, #21 JJ Starling, #24 Yohan Traore, #25 Vincent Iwuchukwu, #26 Jayden Bradley, #29 Kylan Boswell, #31 Ernest Udeh, #32 MJ Rice, #33 Skyy Clark, #35 Tarris Reed, #38 Seth Trimble, #39 Chance Westry, #41 Freddie Dilione, #42 Dior Johnson, #45 Isaiah Miranda, #47 Baba Miller, #48 Eljah Fisher, #49 Roddy Gayle, #50 Tre White

    7 will be Juniors this year at their initial school: #27 Tyrese Proctor, #30 Malik Reneau, #34 Tyrell Ward, #37 Collin Chandler (sort of – he will be a Fr. at BYU after having done a 2 year mission), #36 Ugonna Onyenso (maybe?), #40 Terrance Arceneaux, #44 Dylan Andrews.

    For just the purported sweet spot of players ranked between 16-30, it is:

    11 none and done or 1 and done: Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Leonard Miller, Moussa Diabate, AJ Griffin, Max Christie, Michael Foster, Trevor Keels, Aminu Mohammed

    1 two and done at initial school: Adem Bona

    15 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: Arterio Morris, Mark Mitchell, JJ Starling, Yohan Traore, Vincent Iwuchukwu, Jayden Bradley, Kylan Boswell, Daimion Collins, Harrison Ingram, Hunter Sallis, Matthew Cleveland, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Efton Reid, Bryce McGowens, Tamar Bates

    3 played (or will this upcoming season) at least 3 years at initial school: Tyrese Proctor, Malik Reneau, Nathan Bittle.


    So only 10% of players in the "goldilocks" range of the rankings have or will have stayed for at least 3 seasons with their initial school. Counting on getting 50% or more of players in that range of the rankings to both develop to be starting level players as upperclassmen and to stay at Duke to do seems to be a very high risk strategy.
    Thanks for that work. Super breakdown and illustrative of the difficulties of the strategy, if we are all understanding it correctly in the first place.

  20. #1120
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    The "goldilocks" strategy is going to be very, very difficult to achieve. In the age of the transfer portal, as CDu has noted, it is an extremely difficult task to hone in (1-2 years or more out) on players who will be (i) good enough to play meaningful minutes at Duke as Fr.-So. and not go pro, or (ii) not quite good enough to play meaningful minutes as Fr.-So. but (a) get enough PT that they don't transfer and (b) develop into starting level players as Jrs. and Srs., and/or (iii) come in not expecting to play meaningful minutes as underclassmen, still feel that way after two seasons of not playing much, but also develop into that level of player as Jr./Sr.

    The recent history of the two classes affected by the new world order of the portal show just how difficult it is to reliably “get old” with homegrown players, while still contending for championships?

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2021 (rising Seniors) per 247 composite:

    23 (14 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Chet Holmgren, #2 Paolo Banchero, #3 Shaedon Sharp, #4 Jaden Hardy, #6 Jalen Duren, #7 Jabari Smith, #8 Patrick Baldwin, #9 Kennedy Chandler, #10 Scoot Henderson, #11 Caleb Houstan, #12 Peyton Watson, #13 JD Davison, #14 Kendall Brown, #15 TyTy Washington, #17 Moussa Diabate, #18 AJ Griffin, #20 Max Christie, #22 Michael Foster, #23 Trevor Keels, #24 Aminu Mohammed, #35 Charles Bediako, #38 Malaki Branham, #45 Josh Minott

    1 two and done at initial school: #46 Kobe Bufkin

    16 Transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Emoni Bates, #16 Daimion Collins, #19 Harrison Ingram, #21 Hunter Sallis, #25 Matthew Cleveland, #26 Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, #27 Efton Reid, #29 Bryce McGowens, #30 Tamar Bates, #31 Enoch Boakye, #36 Jaylon Tyson, #37 Tyrese Hunter, #39 Bryce Hopkins, #42 Kowacie Reeves, #47 Frankie Collins, #49 Arthur Kaluma

    10 played at least 3 seasons at initial school: #28 Nathan Bittle (though was injured this year), #32 Benny Williams (sort of – was dismissed early this season), #33 Nolan Hickman, #34 Manny Obaseki, #40 Jonas Aidoo, #41 Langston Love, #43 Jalen Warley, #44 Trey Kaufman-Renn, #48 DaRon Holmes, #50 Zach Clemence (sort of – redshirted this year at Kansas)

    Of the top 50 rated recruits in the Class of 2022 (rising Juniors) per 247 composite:

    19 (12 of top 15) none and done or 1 and done: #1 Nick Smith, #2 Dariq Whitehead, #3 Dereck Lively,
    #6 GG Jackson, #8 Keyonte George, #9 Amari Bailey, #10 Cason Wallace, #11 Jarace Walker, #12 Chris Livingston, #13 Cam Whitmore, #14 Brandon Miller, #15 Julian Phillips, #17 Anthony Black, #19 Jordan Walsh, #22 Gradey Dick, #23 Jalen Hood-Schifino, #28 Leonard Miller, #43 Jett Howard, #46 London Johnson

    2 two and done at initial school: #4 Flip, #18 Adem Bona

    22 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: #5 Dillon Mitchell, #7 Kel'el Ware, #16 Arterio Morris, #20 Mark Mitchell, #21 JJ Starling, #24 Yohan Traore, #25 Vincent Iwuchukwu, #26 Jayden Bradley, #29 Kylan Boswell, #31 Ernest Udeh, #32 MJ Rice, #33 Skyy Clark, #35 Tarris Reed, #38 Seth Trimble, #39 Chance Westry, #41 Freddie Dilione, #42 Dior Johnson, #45 Isaiah Miranda, #47 Baba Miller, #48 Eljah Fisher, #49 Roddy Gayle, #50 Tre White

    7 will be Juniors this year at their initial school: #27 Tyrese Proctor, #30 Malik Reneau, #34 Tyrell Ward, #37 Collin Chandler (sort of – he will be a Fr. at BYU after having done a 2 year mission), #36 Ugonna Onyenso (maybe?), #40 Terrance Arceneaux, #44 Dylan Andrews.

    For just the purported sweet spot of players ranked between 16-30, it is:

    11 none and done or 1 and done: Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Gradey Dick, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Leonard Miller, Moussa Diabate, AJ Griffin, Max Christie, Michael Foster, Trevor Keels, Aminu Mohammed

    1 two and done at initial school: Adem Bona

    15 transferred after 1 or 2 seasons: Arterio Morris, Mark Mitchell, JJ Starling, Yohan Traore, Vincent Iwuchukwu, Jayden Bradley, Kylan Boswell, Daimion Collins, Harrison Ingram, Hunter Sallis, Matthew Cleveland, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Efton Reid, Bryce McGowens, Tamar Bates

    3 played (or will this upcoming season) at least 3 years at initial school: Tyrese Proctor, Malik Reneau, Nathan Bittle.


    So only 10% of players in the "goldilocks" range of the rankings have or will have stayed for at least 3 seasons with their initial school. Counting on getting 50% or more of players in that range of the rankings to both develop to be starting level players as upperclassmen and to stay at Duke to do seems to be a very high risk strategy.
    This is GREAT analysis. It is eye opening about how difficult it will be to execute this strategy.

    But you've got to consider this. We are Duke. We are king of the mountain when it comes to attracting and retaining talent. And I think it's clear that Jon Scheyer is betting he can make this strategy work given his focus on these top 15-30 recruits.

    My view is that there are very few top 15-30 recruits who would take this deal of waiting their turn, even at a school like Duke. But Jon is finding and prioritizing those "very few" meaning our hit rate will be way higher than the average numbers.

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