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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I can't even imagine what a circus it must be behind the scenes. Every player is a free agent every year but there's not a GM to negotiate a new contract with. You talk to this guy about playing time, this guy about endorsement deals, this guy about collective payments. And as an agent you are trying to do that at multiple schools. And very little to none of it is in writing... What could possibly go wrong?
    I think that's why Duke hired Rachel Baker. She did an amazing job last summer. Let's hope she earns her keep again.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I think that's why Duke hired Rachel Baker. She did an amazing job last summer. Let's hope she earns her keep again.
    Yep. And I would hope the collective is putting as much structure in place as it can to mitigate the mercenary, highest-bidder scenarios.

    It would be like salary bands based on your RSCI rating coming out of HS, your year at Duke, maybe your minutes played the season before.

    If the collective is just reacting to agents and offers from other schools, then we've already lost the game IMO. Having two kids with similar profiles in the locker room where one is making more NIL$ than another just because he had the more aggressive agent is a recipe for team chemistry, morale issues.

    But that means you may lose an occasional really good kid who gets poached away by a big $ offer. It's all pretty seedy and disgusting.

    Look at it another way, if you're a big basketball school with a well-funded collective, where do you go mining for gold? Perhaps the team with 5* talents coming off the bench? That's probably what we are facing this offseason...

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Yes it would. And I'll choose to believe it's not going to happen until it happens.

    If you are the agent or family of Mitchell, Power, Foster, Stewart - and toss Proctor in there too - then you'd be wise to learn what School B is willing to pay your kid next year, along with playing time availability and their development plan to get your kid an NBA contract.

    Duke has a lot of unique things to offer these kids, and no program has been a better pipeline to the NBA over the past 10 years. But if they are only able to make $x at Duke next year and some other crazy fanbase is offering twice that, then you can't really blame the kid and the family...

    If we reach that point for our players, and we may be there already, then I will likely punch out as a fan.
    I'm going to say farewell, just in case you do punch out, because I think we're there, unfortunately.

    I was firmly in the players' camp when I thought NIL meant that top-tier players driving so much interest could be paid to add their likeness to Madden, etc. Now that it has devolved into playing for the highest bidder, decimating lineups, I've realized I care much more about my favorite teams rather than some random player I don't know making $100k because "that's fair." Whatever, I'd prefer the old way to this.

    Separately, I've read that the SEC is the biggest driver of the current free for all. Given the Red complexion of most SEC States, I don't envision it will be easy for Congress to bring some order to the madness.

  4. #84
    All of it points to why we need to continue to prioritize kids and families who can see the bigger picture and the overall value of Duke vs being fixated on next season's playing time and payday. That said our paydays do have to be compelling. And I think they are.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by bluedevilwildcats View Post
    I'm going to say farewell, just in case you do punch out, because I think we're there, unfortunately.

    I was firmly in the players' camp when I thought NIL meant that top-tier players driving so much interest could be paid to add their likeness to Madden, etc. Now that it has devolved into playing for the highest bidder, decimating lineups, I've realized I care much more about my favorite teams rather than some random player I don't know making $100k because "that's fair." Whatever, I'd prefer the old way to this.

    Separately, I've read that the SEC is the biggest driver of the current free for all. Given the Red complexion of most SEC States, I don't envision it will be easy for Congress to bring some order to the madness.
    You may be right. But Scheyer, Baker, and King surprised us all last year with the way they held the team together. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt until I actually see it happen.

    Here's another factor to consider on the principle of "follow the money". It's not in these kids best interest to make Duke feel all comfortable that they are coming back. In fact their agents would probaly advise, "tell them you're weighing your options and let's see what they come back with to keep you".

    That's the stage I expect we are in and will be in for the next couple of months. A whole lot of smoke, but in the end, like last year, not a lot of fire...

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    All of it points to why we need to continue to prioritize kids and families who can see the bigger picture and the overall value of Duke vs being fixated on next season's playing time and payday. That said our paydays do have to be compelling. And I think they are.
    The difficult issue is that we continue to recruit top tier guys (good) but then at least several of these guys each year realize playing time in the near term will be hard to come by. Years ago kids were willing to sit for a year or two, but now just about everyone is in more of a hurry, and with few impediments to transferring, off they go.

    I'm pretty sure we'll have a big exodus this year but some guys currently on the fence will see opportunity as other kids depart, so I expect we can have a solid roster for next year.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    The difficult issue is that we continue to recruit top tier guys (good) but then at least several of these guys each year realize playing time in the near term will be hard to come by. Years ago kids were willing to sit for a year or two, but now just about everyone is in more of a hurry, and with few impediments to transferring, off they go.

    I'm pretty sure we'll have a big exodus this year but some guys currently on the fence will see opportunity as other kids depart, so I expect we can have a solid roster for next year.
    Good points. Yeah, we are going to have a great roster next year no matter what.

    I'm still clinging to this dream of having 2-3 AllACC homegrown junior and senior year starters EVERY season, paired up with a transcendent OAD Flagg or Boozer, and dominating the ACC every year with our combination of talent and experience.

    I believe this is what Jon is aiming for but the currents he's trying to swim against may be too strong...

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Why is it looking iffy? Duke improved its overall record, ACC record, seed in the NCAA Tournament, NET/KenPom/T-Rank rating, human poll ranking, etc. during Year 2 for Scheyer. The staff continues to bring in talent through the high school ranks. The single most talented player Scheyer has recruited to date will be on the roster next year. The only thing this Duke team didn't do that last year's team did was fail to win the ACC Tournament. If we are basing it on the overall trend as of right now, it is working. However, the season isn't over, so how we feel next week and next month and next year are very much in the air.

    I think it is premature to assess where Duke is and where we are going. I wrote about this in the "Kudos to Coach Scheyer" thread a few weeks ago that how the season ends will paint a very different picture than where the team wasin mid-February. I don't like to go back and say "told you so," but I feel good about what I wrote then. It's still true that how this season ends will paint a very different picture than how most everyone feels right now.

    If Duke loses on Friday, the boo birds will be hooting and hollering. They will be pretty loud if they lose on Sunday.

    If Duke loses in the Sweet 16, I imagine there will be some glass half full/half empty debate all summer. Duke will have advanced farther than the year before, but it was a team that was in the top 5 of almost every preseason poll. Duke and its fans have high expectations, as they should.

    I think an Elite 8 appearance would quell most of the more cantankerous fans, but not all. A Final Four would be met with mostly positive vibes and most everyone would agree that this was a great year for Duke and for Coach Scheyer in particular.

    Now the crazy thing here is that none of these outcomes will have altered what has happened to date. It's just going to paint how we feel about it. It's like we have seen the second movie in a trilogy. If the last entry sucks, well then we won't want to think about the first two acts.
    I think you are projecting quite a bit here. I only commented on getting older through recruited players. Scheyer has stated that as a goal. Duke is in Year 2 of said goal and they could be running out of recruited older players. If players leave before their sophomore and junior year, Duke can't get older through recruited players. That's the definition of iffy. Scheyer potentially struggling to attain a lofty goal is not a referendum on him or the program.

    I am only reacting to what people with insider access are saying. Maybe they are wrong, but it is people not a person.

  9. #89
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Good points. Yeah, we are going to have a great roster next year no matter what.

    I'm still clinging to this dream of having 2-3 AllACC homegrown junior and senior year starters EVERY season, paired up with a transcendent OAD Flagg or Boozer, and dominating the ACC every year with our combination of talent and experience.

    I believe this is what Jon is aiming for but the currents he's trying to swim against may be too strong...
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    I think you are projecting quite a bit here. I only commented on getting older through recruited players. Scheyer has stated that as a goal. Duke is in Year 2 of said goal and they could be running out of recruited older players. If players leave before their sophomore and junior year, Duke can't get older through recruited players. That's the definition of iffy. Scheyer potentially struggling to attain a lofty goal is not a referendum on him or the program.

    I am only reacting to what people with insider access are saying. Maybe they are wrong, but it is people not a person.
    Yeah, I think it's worth recognizing that Jon is certainly "aiming high" with this program building goal. It was never going to happen overnight, and it might not happen next season. That said, we're in a pretty darn good place to still be competitive each and every year while Jon figures out how to thread that needle and/or adjust his strategy as necessary. That's a good place to be. Regardless of whether Jon's strategy achieves its "ceiling" anytime soon, I'm pretty confident that there will be reduced volatility because of it (i.e., we won't be so reliant on the portal that we're vulnerable to a bubble year). That won't satisfy those who expect Duke to win a natty every year, but those people will never be satisfied by definition.
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  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Scott is 100% right about the above. I don't believe that many of the guys on the Duke roster have made final decisions about what they are going to do next year and the team is - quite rightly - focused on other things at this time. There will be time once the season is over (hopefully in a few weeks!) to talk to the coaches, confer with agents and family, and make the smartest, most informed decision.

    That said, I have heard talk from well-informed sources that some players currently on the roster are at least considering what their career might look like if they leave Durham. The simple reality is this -- Duke is not going to have 12 or 13 players on the roster next season who all justifiably expect to play significant minutes no matter where they are. My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    Hey Jason, can I ask just a clarification question here, without trying to pry any insider information from your sources...but when you say that you expect Duke to have 10 or 11 players...you mean 10 or 11 players expecting to see regular minutes, correct? Not 10 or 11 on the roster in general, correct?

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    I think you are projecting quite a bit here. I only commented on getting older through recruited players. Scheyer has stated that as a goal. Duke is in Year 2 of said goal and they could be running out of recruited older players. If players leave before their sophomore and junior year, Duke can't get older through recruited players. That's the definition of iffy. Scheyer potentially struggling to attain a lofty goal is not a referendum on him or the program.

    I am only reacting to what people with insider access are saying. Maybe they are wrong, but it is people not a person.
    My conclusion was that it is too soon to tell. That's not projection. You are the one projecting that Duke will be running out of sophomores and juniors, calling it iffy. All I said in so many words was come back next month.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    Hey Jason, can I ask just a clarification question here, without trying to pry any insider information from your sources...but when you say that you expect Duke to have 10 or 11 players...you mean 10 or 11 players expecting to see regular minutes, correct? Not 10 or 11 on the roster in general, correct?
    10 or 11 players seeing "regular" minutes??????? often wished for, rarely achieved.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Yeah, I think it's worth recognizing that Jon is certainly "aiming high" with this program building goal. It was never going to happen overnight, and it might not happen next season.
    That last part is the issue. It takes 3 years to make a junior. If Duke stumbles next season in getting older through recruits, that pushes the goal 3 years down the line.


    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That said, we're in a pretty darn good place to still be competitive each and every year while Jon figures out how to thread that needle and/or adjust his strategy as necessary. That's a good place to be.
    Jon's recruiting should keep Duke competitive.

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Regardless of whether Jon's strategy achieves its "ceiling" anytime soon, I'm pretty confident that there will be reduced volatility because of it (i.e., we won't be so reliant on the portal that we're vulnerable to a bubble year).
    Yeesh I am not so sure about that. Jon was fabulous last off-season with respect to who he retained. This off-season he may be unfabulous. That seems a little volatile to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    That won't satisfy those who expect Duke to win a natty every year, but those people will never be satisfied by definition.
    They're all sticks in mud so pfft to them.

  14. #94
    Coach K's last years featured 3-4 freshmen starters every year.
    Scheyer had a JR and 4 FR his first year.
    Scheyer has a SR, 3 SOs, and a FR this year.
    It's looking like it will be 3 SOs-JRs and 2 FR next year.

    The trend line is definitely getting older from where he started. These things take time and they aren't going to be linear. Duke will always be one of the younger teams in the nation. It should still be one of the most talented year in and year out.

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Yeah, I think it's worth recognizing that Jon is certainly "aiming high" with this program building goal. It was never going to happen overnight, and it might not happen next season. That said, we're in a pretty darn good place to still be competitive each and every year while Jon figures out how to thread that needle and/or adjust his strategy as necessary. That's a good place to be. Regardless of whether Jon's strategy achieves its "ceiling" anytime soon, I'm pretty confident that there will be reduced volatility because of it (i.e., we won't be so reliant on the portal that we're vulnerable to a bubble year). That won't satisfy those who expect Duke to win a natty every year, but those people will never be satisfied by definition.
    Scott, I do think this may be the defining offseason when we look back in a few years. If he is able to keep all of Foster, Power and Stewart this offseason, then I think it should be a lot easier to bring them back next year as juniors in projected starting roles.

    If that happens, and he's similarly able to keep K2, Ngongba, Harris together in the class right behind them, then he's crossed the threshold IMO. The transition has happened.

    And there's cushion for some attrition because those 6 guys can't all start as juniors, seniors. In fact it could be 3 starting with a hotshot sophomore and a OAD frosh. Not that HS rankings are the whole story, but we would be the only team in the country starting all-homegrown 5* players , three upperclassmen, two underclassmen. Talent. Experience. Continuity. I think only Scheyer and Duke have the chance to pull this off.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    My conclusion was that it is too soon to tell. That's not projection. You are the one projecting that Duke will be running out of sophomores and juniors, calling it iffy. All I said in so many words was come back next month.
    None of what you wrote had anything to do with Duke getting older through recruited players. It's a bunch of Duke is better this year (I agree, BTW) followed by some yadda-yadda-yadda about pessimistic Duke fans (odd because I am not pessimistic). You projected your annoyance with pessimistic Duke fans upon me.

    I guess you are correct that I am projecting Duke will be running out of sophomores and juniors but I am just doing math based on the information provided.

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    Hey Jason, can I ask just a clarification question here, without trying to pry any insider information from your sources...but when you say that you expect Duke to have 10 or 11 players...you mean 10 or 11 players expecting to see regular minutes, correct? Not 10 or 11 on the roster in general, correct?
    I'm not Jason, but I would say no, he means 10-11 recruited players on the roster. I'd guess the usual 7-9 players would see regular minutes, depending on one's definition of "regular." But we haven't carried 13 recruited players on the roster for as long as I can remember. So expecting us to do so next year is, well, probably setting up for disappointment. The norm has been 10-11 recruited players on the roster. That probably isn't changing.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'm not Jason, but I would say no, he means 10-11 recruited players on the roster. I'd guess the usual 7-9 players would see regular minutes, depending on one's definition of "regular." But we haven't carried 13 recruited players on the roster for as long as I can remember. So expecting us to do so next year is, well, probably setting up for disappointment. The norm has been 10-11 recruited players on the roster. That probably isn't changing.
    Yea, this makes sense. Of course this is all in an effort to project who may be on next year's roster from this year and we simply cannot do that right now. So I need to find something else to bide my time until Thursday lol.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    None of what you wrote had anything to do with Duke getting older through recruited players. It's a bunch of Duke is better this year (I agree, BTW) followed by some yadda-yadda-yadda about pessimistic Duke fans (odd because I am not pessimistic). You projected your annoyance with pessimistic Duke fans upon me.

    I guess you are correct that I am projecting Duke will be running out of sophomores and juniors but I am just doing math based on the information provided.
    Hey, I wouldn't read too much at all into the rumor mill about who's staying and who's leaving.

    Any decent agent representing these kids is not going to make Duke comfortable that their player is coming back.

    Let's see where we are when the dust settles. Last year we landed in a pretty great place.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    Scott, I do think this may be the defining offseason when we look back in a few years. If he is able to keep all of Foster, Power and Stewart this offseason, then I think it should be a lot easier to bring them back next year as juniors in projected starting roles.

    If that happens, and he's similarly able to keep K2, Ngongba, Harris together in the class right behind them, then he's crossed the threshold IMO. The transition has happened.

    And there's cushion for some attrition because those 6 guys can't all start as juniors, seniors. In fact it could be 3 starting with a hotshot sophomore and a OAD frosh. Not that HS rankings are the whole story, but we would be the only team in the country starting all-homegrown 5* players , three upperclassmen, two underclassmen. Talent. Experience. Continuity. I think only Scheyer and Duke have the chance to pull this off.
    I don't think it will be a "defining" off-season but it will be an important data point. To me the key guys to watch in terms of all this are Power and Stewart. Foster should be back as he was a part time starter this year, not recruited over, and should see major minutes next year. If Power and Stewart return, when their playing time is uncertain, then that is evidence of proof of concept -- that it can work, at least to a degree. If those guys leave due to playing time concerns/feeling recruited over, then (also depending on what Mitchell/Proctor/McCain do) it will be apparent that threading this needle on a regular basis is going to be quite difficult.

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