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  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    While I also suspect that I'm right, in part for those reasons, let's remember two things before getting too anxious:
    1) It's very possible that the fact that "more players than we know will be playing their last game wearing a Duke uniform" could mean that more guys than we expect are going to go pro (perhaps second round projected players).
    2) At this time last year we also were expecting massive roster turnover, both from NBA departures and transfers, and beyond the expected losses of Whitehead and Lively that didn't come to pass.

    A lot of things can change between now and when players have to make these decisions. While I'm not expecting another near-perfect offseason from Coach Scheyer (as no one should!) I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt that things will end up slightly better than we might be anxious about until proven otherwise.
    Iím banking a lot on your optimism, Scott . It would not surprise me if Reeves and Blakes put their names in the portal. Does a guy like Harris decommit like Mgbako last year did knowing he may not get much playing time at all? I know itís a little different because Mac expected to start but guys coming in may see a lot of competition and decide there are paths of less resistance elsewhere.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    Reed is another guy I'd expect to get a lot of high-major attention. He was a Top 50 recruit and showed some real flashes as a defense and rebounding focused big. You can't teach his combo of size and athleticism.

    And yeah, the Howard downfall was quite precipitous. It'll be very interesting to see who ends up in Ann Arbor this fall... there are not completely crazy rumors that Jon Beilein would be interested in returning if he was offered the job, but also rumblings that Michigan really wants FAU's Dusty May.
    I think May is waiting for Indiana to open, which it will after next year. That's home for him if I'm not mistaken.

    As for Beilein, his real strength was player development. He took non-elite recruits, developed them, improved them, and created some excellent teams. Unfortunately, fewer and fewer players are interested in longer term development like that. With the portal and immediate transfers, it's an instant gratification world, which doesn't seem to be a good fit for for the 70-something Beilein. But I guess you never know.

  3. #63
    https://www.on3.com/nil/rankings/pla...ol/basketball/ here is a interesting site shows how much nil money the athletes make.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattyoung18 View Post
    https://www.on3.com/nil/rankings/pla...ol/basketball/ here is a interesting site shows how much nil money the athletes make.
    That is just an estimate that On3 puts on their site for clicks. They do not know precisely what each player makes. They are largely extrapolating social media follows into a "value".
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplyluvin View Post
    I’m banking a lot on your optimism, Scott . It would not surprise me if Reeves and Blakes put their names in the portal. Does a guy like Harris decommit like Mgbako last year did knowing he may not get much playing time at all? I know it’s a little different because Mac expected to start but guys coming in may see a lot of competition and decide there are paths of less resistance elsewhere.
    Verbalcommits is up to 491 transfers. Latest is a Dennis Evans, 7'1", 210, from Louisville.

    Harris is not going anywhere. I have a funny (good) feeling about Harris. He strikes me as a guy whose position is "winner." He'll carve out a role.
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    While I also suspect that I'm right, in part for those reasons, let's remember two things before getting too anxious:
    1) It's very possible that the fact that "more players than we know will be playing their last game wearing a Duke uniform" could mean that more guys than we expect are going to go pro (perhaps second round projected players).
    2) At this time last year we also were expecting massive roster turnover, both from NBA departures and transfers, and beyond the expected losses of Whitehead and Lively that didn't come to pass.

    A lot of things can change between now and when players have to make these decisions. While I'm not expecting another near-perfect offseason from Coach Scheyer (as no one should!) I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt that things will end up slightly better than we might be anxious about until proven otherwise.
    Scott is 100% right about the above. I don't believe that many of the guys on the Duke roster have made final decisions about what they are going to do next year and the team is - quite rightly - focused on other things at this time. There will be time once the season is over (hopefully in a few weeks!) to talk to the coaches, confer with agents and family, and make the smartest, most informed decision.

    That said, I have heard talk from well-informed sources that some players currently on the roster are at least considering what their career might look like if they leave Durham. The simple reality is this -- Duke is not going to have 12 or 13 players on the roster next season who all justifiably expect to play significant minutes no matter where they are. My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  7. #67
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I think May is waiting for Indiana to open, which it will after next year. That's home for him if I'm not mistaken.

    As for Beilein, his real strength was player development. He took non-elite recruits, developed them, improved them, and created some excellent teams. Unfortunately, fewer and fewer players are interested in longer term development like that. With the portal and immediate transfers, it's an instant gratification world, which doesn't seem to be a good fit for for the 70-something Beilein. But I guess you never know.
    Oh, I fully agree re: Beilein, especially given what he's said about his decision to leave Michigan in the first place. It would be a bit of an odd reunion, and I don't expect it to happen, but I've seen enough "rumblings" about it from somewhat reliable Michigan sources that it's not a 0% chance.
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  8. #68
    I am supportive of NIL, even if the dollars are flowing from rich alums through collectives and to the players. The players deserve to get paid. I would prefer a revenue share model from the NCAA to the schools to the players that keeps the playing field more level and expect it will eventually land there...

    But this transfer portal for me is destroying college sports. It's now a professional league without the necessary rules to maintain order. What if all the NBA players were free agents every season? Because that's what we have. It's a joke.

    Why can't they pass a simple rule that you can only transfer with immediate eligibility if there's a coaching change at your school? Is the NCAA now too toothless, or just too dumb, to institute a restriction like this?

    It was remarkable that Jon was able to keep all his guys out of the portal last year. UNC lost seven. I think our coach deserves a lot of credit for that. Will we lose some this year beyond our guys who turn pro? Yes, certainly. We are counting on it based on our scholarships.

    What's success for us this offseason? I'm assuming with Proctor and McCain, they are either turning pro or returning. And I think Jeremy is a really unique case since he's graduated. Hope he comes back but I won't take it as a terrible sign if he transfers for a big NIL payday at some other school - new setting, new experience. So I look at that core group of Mitchell, Foster, Power, and Stewart. If we can bring back at least 3 out of 4 and only lose 1 to the portal - while keeping our 24 class intact - then I think that would be a huge victory for Coach.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Scott is 100% right about the above. I don't believe that many of the guys on the Duke roster have made final decisions about what they are going to do next year and the team is - quite rightly - focused on other things at this time. There will be time once the season is over (hopefully in a few weeks!) to talk to the coaches, confer with agents and family, and make the smartest, most informed decision.

    That said, I have heard talk from well-informed sources that some players currently on the roster are at least considering what their career might look like if they leave Durham. The simple reality is this -- Duke is not going to have 12 or 13 players on the roster next season who all justifiably expect to play significant minutes no matter where they are. My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    If the second paragraph is true, it would really put a fork in the "get older through recruits" strategy regardless of who stays.

  10. #70
    And if the above happens, I don't want us to take anyone out of the portal except possibly a backup PG if all of Proctor, Roach and McCain leave.

    Loyalty goes both ways. If Jon wants these 5* guys to stick around and be AllACC starters during their junior and senior years, then he can't bring in transfers over the top of them and stunt their development. You've got to let Foster, Power, Stewart, K2, Ngongba play and develop on the court next year...

  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    If the second paragraph is true, it would really put a fork in the "get older through recruits" strategy regardless of who stays.
    I think it's too premature to make this statement. Let's say, for example, that Mitchell and Proctor return along with Foster, Power, and Stewart. I think that still puts Duke on a trend of getting older through recruits even if it doesn't include a SR like Roach. Replace Young with another experienced frontcourt player, and the roster looks just about as experienced as this year. Replace SR Roach with a JR Proctor and a JR Mitchell instead of a SO Mitchell, and Duke is at least building continuity if not a truly older roster.

    Like Jason said, it's too soon to even know how this all shakes out.

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Scott is 100% right about the above. I don't believe that many of the guys on the Duke roster have made final decisions about what they are going to do next year and the team is - quite rightly - focused on other things at this time. There will be time once the season is over (hopefully in a few weeks!) to talk to the coaches, confer with agents and family, and make the smartest, most informed decision.

    That said, I have heard talk from well-informed sources that some players currently on the roster are at least considering what their career might look like if they leave Durham. The simple reality is this -- Duke is not going to have 12 or 13 players on the roster next season who all justifiably expect to play significant minutes no matter where they are. My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    I'm going to tie all the top threads on DBR together - Duke goes on a run through the South Region and ultimately cuts down the nets in April (and wins the Walton Belt), fueled by incredible play from the starting 5. Proctor plays himself into the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft, Mitchell turns into the second coming of Justise Winslow and becomes an intriguing pro prospect, and Roach has accomplished everything he set out to do at Duke - those three leave along with Flip, McCain, and Young. And while it's sad to see everyone go, everyone is elated with the title. Reeves and Blakes decide it's time to move on and enter the transfer portal. Next year's team, centered around 2024 Recruits is:

    G: Foster, Harris, Schutt
    Wing: Flagg, Evans, Power, K2
    Big: Maluach, Stewart, Ngongba

    Sensing the need for an additional PG on the roster, the NBA dad of a former top 20 2023 recruit, who recently joined a podcast with a prominent Duke in the NBA alumnus, urges his son (who grew up a Duke fan) to enter the 2024 Transfer Portal; Bronny James joins the Cooper Flagg travelling all stars where they all maximize their NIL.

    (just kidding before people jump in to say that Bronny hasn't had a great year. I just think the media spectacle would be a sight to see)

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    And if the above happens, I don't want us to take anyone out of the portal except possibly a backup PG if all of Proctor, Roach and McCain leave.

    Loyalty goes both ways. If Jon wants these 5* guys to stick around and be AllACC starters during their junior and senior years, then he can't bring in transfers over the top of them and stunt their development. You've got to let Foster, Power, Stewart, K2, Ngongba play and develop on the court next year...
    How long has this been the case? I remember a particular interview with Battier where he said part of why he chose to attend Duke was that K didn't promise him anything at all.

    Are kids today afraid of competition for a roster spot? Sincere question. Seems fair game to me.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    If the second paragraph is true, it would really put a fork in the "get older through recruits" strategy regardless of who stays.
    Yes it would. And I'll choose to believe it's not going to happen until it happens.

    If you are the agent or family of Mitchell, Power, Foster, Stewart - and toss Proctor in there too - then you'd be wise to learn what School B is willing to pay your kid next year, along with playing time availability and their development plan to get your kid an NBA contract.

    Duke has a lot of unique things to offer these kids, and no program has been a better pipeline to the NBA over the past 10 years. But if they are only able to make $x at Duke next year and some other crazy fanbase is offering twice that, then you can't really blame the kid and the family...

    If we reach that point for our players, and we may be there already, then I will likely punch out as a fan.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    Yeah, that's kind of where I am. I won't speculate on who might go, but just from a historical perspective we haven't had a 13-man roster of recruited players in a long time. This year we have 11, all recruits or returnees. Last year, we had 12, including trasnfers Ryan Young and Jacob Grandison and Kale Catchings (who didn't really play). In 2022, we had 10, including transfers Theo John and Bates Jones. In 2021 it was 11, including transfer Tape. So there is little reason for me to believe that we'll be at 13 next year, and it's not unreasonable to assume a transfer is one of them.

    If we have 11 on the roster next year with one transfer, that would likely mean that 7 of the current 11 guys who could return will not do so. I wouldn't speculate as to which, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to see any of them decide to go:

    Flip: a likely lottery pick, I'd be shocked if he returns (this isn't a groundbreaking though, I don't think)
    Roach: a senior, could very well decide to go pro
    Blakes: could decide to transfer due to lack of opportunity (especially a possibility if he's in line to graduate early; no idea about this)
    Proctor: could decide to go pro
    Mitchell: could decide to go pro or transfer given a more challenging path to a major role next year
    Schutt: could decide to transfer
    Reeves: could decide to transfer
    McClain: could decide to go pro
    Foster: could decide to transfer I guess (seems the least likely, but you never know)
    Stewart: could decide to transfer due to a challenging path to a starting spot
    Power: could decide to transfer due to a challenging path to a starting spot

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I think it's too premature to make this statement. Let's say, for example, that Mitchell and Proctor return along with Foster, Power, and Stewart. I think that still puts Duke on a trend of getting older through recruits even if it doesn't include a SR like Roach. Replace Young with another experienced frontcourt player, and the roster looks just about as experienced as this year. Replace SR Roach with a JR Proctor and a JR Mitchell instead of a SO Mitchell, and Duke is at least building continuity if not a truly older roster.

    Like Jason said, it's too soon to even know how this all shakes out.
    While possibly true, it is certainly not getting older through recruited players. Let's be glass half empty for a sec. 6 recruits plus 2 portals is 8. 8 minus 11 is 3. That means 3 out of Jeremy, Mark, Tyrese, Caleb, TJ, Jared, and Sean stay. It will be year two and the strategy is already looking iffy.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    How long has this been the case? I remember a particular interview with Battier where he said part of why he chose to attend Duke was that K didn't promise him anything at all.

    Are kids today afraid of competition for a roster spot? Sincere question. Seems fair game to me.
    The dynamics have changed. Kids have the power now to change teams. More money. More playing time.

    Kids like Power, Stewart, K2, Ngongba are elite recruits who would start as freshman on 95% of the teams in the country. Jon is convincing them to come in, wait their turn and play expanded minutes as sophomores and juniors. If he interrupts that progression with a transfer at their position, then they can leave - and probably will leave if it violates the spirit of their agreement with Coach coming into the program.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by azzefkram View Post
    While possibly true, it is certainly not getting older through recruited players. Let's be glass half empty for a sec. 6 recruits plus 2 portals is 8. 8 minus 11 is 3. That means 3 out of Jeremy, Mark, Tyrese, Caleb, TJ, Jared, and Sean stay. It will be year two and the strategy is already looking iffy.
    Why is it looking iffy? Duke improved its overall record, ACC record, seed in the NCAA Tournament, NET/KenPom/T-Rank rating, human poll ranking, etc. during Year 2 for Scheyer. The staff continues to bring in talent through the high school ranks. The single most talented player Scheyer has recruited to date will be on the roster next year. The only thing this Duke team didn't do that last year's team did was fail to win the ACC Tournament. If we are basing it on the overall trend as of right now, it is working. However, the season isn't over, so how we feel next week and next month and next year are very much in the air.

    I think it is premature to assess where Duke is and where we are going. I wrote about this in the "Kudos to Coach Scheyer" thread a few weeks ago that how the season ends will paint a very different picture than where the team wasin mid-February. I don't like to go back and say "told you so," but I feel good about what I wrote then. It's still true that how this season ends will paint a very different picture than how most everyone feels right now.

    If Duke loses on Friday, the boo birds will be hooting and hollering. They will be pretty loud if they lose on Sunday.

    If Duke loses in the Sweet 16, I imagine there will be some glass half full/half empty debate all summer. Duke will have advanced farther than the year before, but it was a team that was in the top 5 of almost every preseason poll. Duke and its fans have high expectations, as they should.

    I think an Elite 8 appearance would quell most of the more cantankerous fans, but not all. A Final Four would be met with mostly positive vibes and most everyone would agree that this was a great year for Duke and for Coach Scheyer in particular.

    Now the crazy thing here is that none of these outcomes will have altered what has happened to date. It's just going to paint how we feel about it. It's like we have seen the second movie in a trilogy. If the last entry sucks, well then we won't want to think about the first two acts.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Scott is 100% right about the above. I don't believe that many of the guys on the Duke roster have made final decisions about what they are going to do next year and the team is - quite rightly - focused on other things at this time. There will be time once the season is over (hopefully in a few weeks!) to talk to the coaches, confer with agents and family, and make the smartest, most informed decision.

    That said, I have heard talk from well-informed sources that some players currently on the roster are at least considering what their career might look like if they leave Durham. The simple reality is this -- Duke is not going to have 12 or 13 players on the roster next season who all justifiably expect to play significant minutes no matter where they are. My bet is that we end up with 10 (Ngongba's injury status could make this 11). What's more I think there is a decent chance one or two of the 10 are folks who come in via the transfer portal. I am sure all of you can do the math on what that means for the guys currently on the Duke roster.
    Wow. That would mean A LOT of departures. Which, being 4 over the scholly limit without accounting for any early departures, the number was always going to be high but...I guess I never envisioned it could be THAT high.

  20. #80
    I can't even imagine what a circus it must be behind the scenes. Every player is a free agent every year but there's not a GM to negotiate a new contract with. You talk to this guy about playing time, this guy about endorsement deals, this guy about collective payments. And as an agent you are trying to do that at multiple schools. And very little to none of it is in writing... What could possibly go wrong?

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