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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Predictive value of stars.

    To extend a decade after high school, you could look at the 49ers and Chiefs and start counting. Or you could do what I did and plagiarize someone else’s research, though the reference is below.

    Among likely offensive starters for the 49ers, average high school star rating: 3.27
    For the Chiefs? 2.64

    For the 2 teams, the only offensive skill player with a 4 or 5 star rating is Christian McCaffrey.

    The article also points out that every NFL team is populated largely with 3 star players. This is partly due to the reality that there are 50 times as many 3 stars as 5 stars every year. There are also 10 times as many 4 stars as 5 stars. Adjusted for those numbers, 5 star players are 70 times more likely to be first round draft picks, but teams are composed of way more than 1st rounders.

    Defenses have moderately higher average star scores (around 3.3 for both teams), and the players are more likely to have gotten the 4 or 5 stars (though there are unstarred players dotting both lineups.

    I’d add that just about the only non-kicker Duke player in the past decade who was a 2 star recruit was Daniel Jones.

    This article argues that the reason that defensive stars are a little higher iis that defensive players are more athletic (or more athletic as 16 year olds?) and that offensive linemen and quarterbacks have to mature significantly before they’re ready for the nfl—and it’d be hard to predict how people are going to mature. This is in contrast to, say, a cornerback, where an expert might be able to watch a 16 year old and see whether they have the sheer athleticism that allows them to cover the fastest guy on the other team while running backwards.

    But, back to us: these ratings are probably relevant, but also absurd. Nobody can watch more than 1 hs football game per week. They all play at the same time on Friday. Tape is nice but edited, and most future nfl players are playing against substandard competition most of the time (or at least substandard compared to them).

    And we saw the basic reality this past year: Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame are all teams with about 55 players who were 4 or 5 star players (way more than any NFL team), while we have a few guys who were bestowed 4 stars—yet we played essentially even with all three of those teams (even as in a couple of breaks, the other team would win).

    Anyway, here’s the article:

    https://atozsports.com/kansas-city/h...ball-recruits/
    Stars matter - that is why Bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson and even Michigan are your national champs over last decade. The teams the get the most 4-5 stars are the ones in the playoffs. We saw what happened when the best recruiting team Georgia played an also ran recruiter TCU.

    Portal and NIL evens landscape somewhat. But expect the playoff teams to follow the recruiting rankings pretty closely

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Deke1990 View Post
    Stars matter - that is why Bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson and even Michigan are your national champs over last decade. The teams the get the most 4-5 stars are the ones in the playoffs. We saw what happened when the best recruiting team Georgia played an also ran recruiter TCU.

    Portal and NIL evens landscape somewhat. But expect the playoff teams to follow the recruiting rankings pretty closely
    there's a correlation, but Manny among many other coaches pays zero attention to stars and web site ratings. Why should they? Do you trust evaluations of internet sites more than professional coaches who are paid literally millions to evaluate talent? And of course there is that tricky "after the fact" situation where guys' ratings rise when they commit to places like Alabama and fall when they commit to Duke. The college coaches evaluate film, get a close look at prospects in their summer camps. They have zero reason to rely on web sites. Those are for fans.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Duke just offered Matt Zollers, the top Pennsylvania qb in the 2025 cycle. He’s being recruited by all the elite programs, including Penn State. Given that we’re going up against Georgia and a host of other schools, why is that noteworthy? First, qb’s need to find a place where they feel likely to get reps in a strong environment, and PSU, for example has already gotten a ‘25 qb. They are apparently looking for a 2nd qb in the cycle, but how many other qbs does a freshman want in the qb room? And PSU did just fire their qb coach, implying more instability among their coaching staff.

    Second, this article postulates that Duke and PSU have a recruiting rivalry going on. It’s a good sign when a PSU site sees us as a threat.

    https://basicbluesnation.com/penn-st...diaz-and-duke/
    Last edited by johnb; 02-15-2024 at 01:53 AM.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Gabe Infante has another St Joe's prep player considering Duke.

    DT Maxwell Roy breaks down his top six contenders

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Duke has received a commitment from three star DE Sampson Onuoha out of Boston with 15 offers, many P5

    https://twitter.com/SampsonOnuoha2/s...17466000494971
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Duke has received a commitment from three star DE Sampson Onuoha out of Boston with 15 offers, many P5

    https://twitter.com/SampsonOnuoha2/s...17466000494971
    Thanks. As a Duke football fan (even more than basketball!), I am starved for info and appreciate the report.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Our 2025 class now has a three-star QB commitment from Dan Mahan of Burlington, NC. Dan recently de-committed from App. State. He had offers from WF and several non-P5 programs.

    Welcome Dan!

    https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/stat...69416246112577
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Our 2025 class now has a three-star QB commitment from Dan Mahan of Burlington, NC. Dan recently de-committed from App. State. He had offers from WF and several non-P5 programs.

    Welcome Dan!

    https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/stat...69416246112577
    Excellent, it's always great to see us picking up in state recruits.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by chrishoke View Post
    Our 2025 class now has a three-star QB commitment from Dan Mahan of Burlington, NC. Dan recently de-committed from App. State. He had offers from WF and several non-P5 programs.

    Welcome Dan!

    https://twitter.com/AdamRoweTDD/stat...69416246112577
    Small world. I'm 99% sure I was in the same graduating HS class with his dad. Good luck and congratulations.

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