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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    As I write this, we are exactly 1 month from the KYD.
    This is the last big weekend to accrue KYD points; next weekend there is 1 more race with points, the Lexington at Keeneland. The rest is hype and decisions by the groups.

    Misc:
    • One such decision has been made, with Timberlake's lackluster 4th place finish last week, that ownership group decided they will pass on the KYD and aim for the Preakness. One more slot open for late comers with few points.
    • I also saw that it is predicted that the point cut-off will be higher this year than ever. That either means they are giving out more points or there is more distribution of points in the field.
    • The Bay Shore Stakes (also run this Saturday) used to be contended earlier in the year and WAS a stepping stone toward the KYD; but with horses running fewer prep races, the fields would be smaller and not commensurate with the prestige of this 7f race, previously won by KYD winners like Secretariat, Damascus, and Bold Forbes. See the PPs on the Pletcher page.
    • One of Baffert's owners (owner of Muth) is bringing legal action against Churchill Downs in an effort to get Baffert horses into the KYD field. I don't know how that will work because they have not awarded KYD points to his horses.



    Onto the pointers.

    For the colts, we have 3 races giving points (note the Bay Shore at Aqueduct is being contended Saturday, but it is a sprint and has no points to award).

    The Wood Memorial will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Aqueduct – Race 10; PPs ]
    Deterministic and Tuscan Sky are undefeated and have good ratings. Uncle Heavy (apparently) missed some time, but he has been better on an off track than a good track. The weather is good for Saturday. E Grande O goes to the front and might fade if he is challenged; and there is other early speed in the race. Resiliance is from out of town and is looking for a payday and points; he has Mott and Velasquez. I think Deterministic is the best horse, but Resiliance is the best bet.


    Opening weekend at Keeneland will provide the Blue Grass Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Keeneland – Race 10; PPs ]
    This could be a good race; there are 3 horses that won their last Stakes race that gave them KYD points. Dornoch (Fountain of Youth), Sierra Leone (Risen Star), and Encino (Battaglia). Just A Touch is also a serious contender. Be You could hit the board. Mugatu is expected to bite the dust (any Star Trek fans out there?). This is a tough race to pick because I have a theory that once horses have enough KYD points to get in, they don't necessarily press them in their last prep race; cynical, but it will be true for some of these guys. Bet who needs the points. I'll pick Just A Touch; odds should give it a good ROI potential.

    The Santa Anita Derby is at ...(guess):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Santa Anita Park – Race 10; PPs ]
    This looks like a race between Stronghold, Imagination, and Wynstock. Stronghold is NOT a Baffert horse. Wynstock's last race can be thrown out. Imagination won his last with a determined stretch drive. Stronghold needs the points and his jockey is winning at a 19% clip; I'll pick him.


    For the fillies:

    The Gazelle will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Aqueduct – Race 8; PPs ]
    Where's My Ring comes in from California after butting heads with Kinza. Jose Lezcano is a solid jockey, although lesser known. Life Talk needed her last race. Exacta box.


    The Santa Anita Oaks will be run at eh..can't remember:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Santa Anita Park – Race 6; PPs ]
    Kinza is Queen; probably the best 3YO filly around. Kopion rounds out the exacta.

    and, the Kentucky Derby Future Pool#6 PPs are also available:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Ky Derby Future – Race 6; PPs ]
    Do you think anyone who is paying attention will be betting on Timberlake?

    On Friday, there is a 3YO race for fillies of importance. The Ashland run at Keeneland:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Friday April 5, 2024; Keeneland – Race 9; PPs ]
    Candied, Just F Y I, Impel, and Leslie's Rose are top contenders. Each has something to say for themselves. Just F Y I was the 2YO filly champion, but has had issues getting started this year. Leslie's Rose needed her last race. Candied probably needs this race (pass). Impel, undefeated but not yet showing the speed she will need. Halina's Forte is improving and in shape. Just F Y I needs the points I think; only 12 get into the KYO.

    The Mine That Bird Derby will also be run at Sunland Park, but I recognize no horses, no trainers, and there are no points. Mine That Bird was recently found at the KY Horse Park temporarily.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Resilience won the Wood Memorial and received a (tepid) 90 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776707653453967858
    The favorite (who did not need the KYD points) Deterministic just didn't fire. I expect a statement out of that barn on that. Deposition, with Dexter Haddock on board, fell in the stretch; no word as to why, but horse and jockey are OK. 2nd and 3rd place longshots made for some nice Place and Show payoffs. Another interesting handicapping tool is key races; Resilience finished 4th in the Risen Star earlier this year. Sierra Leone won that race, and the 3rd place horse, Catching Freedom, won the Louisiana Derby. That certainly suggests that the quality of that race was perhaps as high as any this year. Here's the end of that race with the familiar names:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1759014657686192600


    In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone showed why he is the likely 2nd choice in the KYD (Fierceness being the top favorite):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776733916918931852
    Sierra Leone has that come from behind style that wins a lot of KYDs, but if
    Fierceness is 10 lengths ahead, it won't get him there. Just A Touch was a tough luck 2nd. The commentators were a bit down on Sierra Leone's previous win, suggesting it was not as good as it appeared (wrongo).

    Stronghold held a neck advantage over Imagination at the end of the Santa Anita Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776763168640876998
    These horses were the top favorites and were well ahead of the rest of the field. Stronghold DOES get KYD points for trainer Phil D'Amato.

    Long shot, Reasoned Analysis, won the Bay Shore:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776698227783282996
    Reasoned Analysis came from waaaaay back to win going away, but alas, no KYD points.


    For the fillies:

    Where's My Ring won the Gazelle:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776690156587671831
    Where's My Ring was one of the more experienced fillies in the field. She was in the BC Juv Fillies last year. Her race ratings have taken a jump this year, in stakes company, so she was the favorite even though she hasn't won anything. She was awarded a 90 Beyer.

    Nothing Like You blew away the field in the Santa Anita Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776727035949531574
    The filly by Malibu Moon (MM has been a tremendous broodmare sire and obviously sires talented fillies) and is trained by Bob Baffert. The big favorite Kinza gave a dull effort. Here is a perfect example why it is better to wait till you see the horses in the post parade; when I saw Kinza warming up, I would have been convinced not to bet on her. As an overwhelming favorite, it is tough to bet on her anyway, but she was all sweaty and I don't think she was happy. Her body language was OK, but this is the longest race she has ever been in and I expected her to tire because of her condition. The winner looked great before the race. This was what I was thinking before the race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-07-2024 at 07:17 AM.

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Resilience won the Wood Memorial and received a (tepid) 90 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776707653453967858
    The favorite (who did not need the KYD points) Deterministic just didn't fire. I expect a statement out of that barn on that. Deposition, with Dexter Haddock on board, fell in the stretch; no word as to why, but horse and jockey are OK. 2nd and 3rd place longshots made for some nice Place and Show payoffs. Another interesting handicapping tool is key races; Resilience finished 4th in the Risen Star earlier this year. Sierra Leone won that race, and the 3rd place horse, Catching Freedom, won the Louisiana Derby. That certainly suggests that the quality of that race was perhaps as high as any this year. Here's the end of that race with the familiar names:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1759014657686192600


    In the Blue Grass Stakes, Sierra Leone showed why he is the likely 2nd choice in the KYD (Fierceness being the top favorite):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776733916918931852
    Sierra Leone has that come from behind style that wins a lot of KYDs, but if
    Fierceness is 10 lengths ahead, it won't get him there. Just A Touch was a tough luck 2nd. The commentators were a bit down on Sierra Leone's previous win, suggesting it was not as good as it appeared (wrongo).

    Stronghold held a neck advantage over Imagination at the end of the Santa Anita Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776763168640876998
    These horses were the top favorites and were well ahead of the rest of the field. Stronghold DOES get KYD points for trainer Phil D'Amato.

    Long shot, Reasoned Analysis, won the Bay Shore:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776698227783282996
    Reasoned Analysis came from waaaaay back to win going away, but alas, no KYD points.


    For the fillies:

    Where's My Ring won the Gazelle:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776690156587671831
    Where's My Ring was one of the more experienced fillies in the field. She was in the BC Juv Fillies last year. Her race ratings have taken a jump this year, in stakes company, so she was the favorite even though she hasn't won anything. She was awarded a 90 Beyer.

    Nothing Like You blew away the field in the Santa Anita Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776727035949531574
    The filly by Malibu Moon (MM has been a tremendous broodmare sire and obviously sires talented fillies) and is trained by Bob Baffert. The big favorite Kinza gave a dull effort. Here is a perfect example why it is better to wait till you see the horses in the post parade; when I saw Kinza warming up, I would have been convinced not to bet on her. As an overwhelming favorite, it is tough to bet on her anyway, but she was all sweaty and I don't think she was happy. Her body language was OK, but this is the longest race she has ever been in and I expected her to tire because of her condition. The winner looked great before the race. This was what I was thinking before the race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Fierceness vs Sierra Leone. That should make for a really good Derby. Of course that may mean some one race wonder may once again win the Derby. My current choice would be Sierra Leone. SL was the best horse at the Fairgrounds. The other horses were pretty good down there this year. In the Bluegrass he was running on a speed favoring track. He used a lot of energy fighting the guys trying to load him. He won pretty convincingly. The field appeared better to me than the Florida Derby field. While Fierceness led every step of the Florida Derby the fractions were reasonable, something that rarely happens in the Ky. Derby.

  3. #103
    Iím not a horse racing enthusiast but I did make opening Day at Keeneland for the 3rd straight year last weekend. Misting rain a cool temps kept the crowd down. I adjusted my gambling strategy this year. Last year I bet on the horse with the stupidest name to win every race. Surprisingly that didnít pay off and I lost every race. This year I picked 2 horses with stupid names to place and minimized my losses. I lost twice as much at the bar as I did on the track. Itís a fun track and a good time but, I donít care what anyone says, Burgoo is just Brunswick stew without the flavor.

    Also, bourbonÖblech!
    Last edited by lotusland; 04-10-2024 at 07:20 AM.

  4. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Iím not a horse racing enthusiast but I did make opening Day at Keeneland for the 3rd straight year last weekend. Misting rain a cool temps kept the crowd down. I adjusted my gambling strategy this year. Last year I bet on the horse with the stupidest name to win every race. Surprisingly that didnít pay off and I lost every race. This year I picked 2 horses with stupid names to place and minimized my losses. I lost twice as much at the bar as I did on the track. Itís a fun track and a good time but, I donít care what anyone says, Burgoo is just Brunswick stew without the flavor.

    Also, bourbonÖblech!
    Obviously this was not your first time to the track.

    The stupid name gambit only works for first timers. Sorry.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #105

    Last Points

    For this Saturday, 4/23/2024, we have the last KYD points race.

    At Keeneland is the Lexington:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 13, 2024; Keeneland - Race 10; PPs ]
    The race is interesting, when viewed through the prism of KYD points. The 20th horse on the KYD points list has 40 points. This race awards 20 and 10. I spy 3 horses that have a shot to get in the field with a win. Hades has 30 points; he can tie for the 20th spot with a 2nd place finish. Lucky Jeremy has 16 points and can tie for the 20th spot with a win. Encino has 20 points and needs to win to tie for the 20th spot. Usually there is a horse or two that drops out of the top 20 (Timberlake is not included in the list this week as he is out of the KYD as his owners consider shorter distances).
    As for the race itself, The Wine Steward is suggested to be the top pick, but this is his first start since October. I think he needs a race. Encino scratched last week to get into this race, so he has a shot. Hades won the Holy Bull, but had bad racing luck in the Florida Derby. I'm not sold on Lucky Jeremy who had 2 dull efforts. I think Encino and Hades duel it out.

    Just so you have something else to watch, the $1.25M Apple Blossom for older mares is at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 13, 2024; Oaklawn Park - Race 11; PPs ]
    This looks like Adare Manor against Wet Paint. Adare Manor had a great 3YO season, while Wet Paint had a great 2YO season. This is Wet Paint's first time out, so I'll give Adare Manor the nod.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #106

    Top 11 for the KY Oaks 2024

    Here's one person's view of the top 11 for the Kentucky Oaks:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-for-april-11/

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #107
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    Keeneland Today

    Today at Keeneland the big race was the Makerís Mark Mile, a G1 turf race. Godolphin sent two European horses over, Master of the Seas, who won the Breedersí Cup turf mile last year, and Naval Power, who was coming off a win at Meydan. William Buick flew over to ride Master. Master of the Seas was running the first time this year. He was a little closer to the front than normal. He got an inside position coming around the last turn and blew by the others, winning easily. After a few years I learned the lesson to bet the Europeans over our turf horses. The Godolphin exacta paid $15.20 in a race with only six starters. Thatís a gift. Their trainer, Charlie Appleby, has a gift to American turf racing. (Sorry DevilHorse). The pair are spending the rest of the year in America. Master of the Seas is headed to Churchill Downs while Naval Power is headed to New York. This is not good news for Chad Brown or the other New York turf trainers. The turf track at Keeneland was really wet, but not a problem for the Europeans.

    The weather has been terrible at Keeneland so far this week. Tomorrow should be better. Even with the sloppy track favorites won 8 out of 9 races. How does that happen on a day like today?

  8. #108
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    For this Saturday, 4/23/2024, we have the last KYD points race.

    At Keeneland is the Lexington:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 13, 2024; Keeneland - Race 10; PPs ]
    The race is interesting, when viewed through the prism of KYD points. The 20th horse on the KYD points list has 40 points. This race awards 20 and 10. I spy 3 horses that have a shot to get in the field with a win. Hades has 30 points; he can tie for the 20th spot with a 2nd place finish. Lucky Jeremy has 16 points and can tie for the 20th spot with a win. Encino has 20 points and needs to win to tie for the 20th spot. Usually there is a horse or two that drops out of the top 20 (Timberlake is not included in the list this week as he is out of the KYD as his owners consider shorter distances).
    As for the race itself, The Wine Steward is suggested to be the top pick, but this is his first start since October. I think he needs a race. Encino scratched last week to get into this race, so he has a shot. Hades won the Holy Bull, but had bad racing luck in the Florida Derby. I'm not sold on Lucky Jeremy who had 2 dull efforts. I think Encino and Hades duel it out.

    Just so you have something else to watch, the $1.25M Apple Blossom for older mares is at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 13, 2024; Oaklawn Park - Race 11; PPs ]
    This looks like Adare Manor against Wet Paint. Adare Manor had a great 3YO season, while Wet Paint had a great 2YO season. This is Wet Paint's first time out, so I'll give Adare Manor the nod.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Encino takes the Lexington:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1779285403536667006
    And still, the 20 KYD points may not be enough as Encino is #21 on the points list. But drop outs are bound to happen (2 or 3 last year). The Wine Steward was a game 2nd. Hades had everything to lose, and did.

    Adare Manor was dominating in the Apple Blossom:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1779285649994166742
    Wet Paint dried up before the stretch.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #109

    KYD Update

    Encino was awarded a 90 Beyer figure for his Lexington win...

    Good News/Bad News:
    No More Time was #19 in the KYD Points race, but apparently sustained a condylar fracture during a workout (at Palm Meadows training facility BTW). The horse will make a full recovery.

    The beneficiary of this injury is Encino who now is the 20th horse in KYD points.

    Forever Young arrives in KY:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1779233184359620669

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-14-2024 at 12:32 PM.

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Today at Keeneland the big race was the Makerís Mark Mile, a G1 turf race. Godolphin sent two European horses over, Master of the Seas, who won the Breedersí Cup turf mile last year, and Naval Power, who was coming off a win at Meydan. William Buick flew over to ride Master. Master of the Seas was running the first time this year. He was a little closer to the front than normal. He got an inside position coming around the last turn and blew by the others, winning easily. After a few years I learned the lesson to bet the Europeans over our turf horses. The Godolphin exacta paid $15.20 in a race with only six starters. Thatís a gift. Their trainer, Charlie Appleby, has a gift to American turf racing. (Sorry DevilHorse). The pair are spending the rest of the year in America. Master of the Seas is headed to Churchill Downs while Naval Power is headed to New York. This is not good news for Chad Brown or the other New York turf trainers. The turf track at Keeneland was really wet, but not a problem for the Europeans.

    The weather has been terrible at Keeneland so far this week. Tomorrow should be better. Even with the sloppy track favorites won 8 out of 9 races. How does that happen on a day like today?
    Sometimes you see a designation for track condition, 'wf' for Wet Fast. Often this means that the amount of mud/dirt is scraped off so that the track is harder, but more speed favoring.

    Here's a definition of wet fast:
    wet fast: occurs immediately after a heavy rain. Track has surface water on it, but base is still solid. Times are similar to, or sometimes faster than, a fast track.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #111

    Odds N Ends

    There are no Triple Crown related races of interest this week, although there are a couple of interesting races for older horses.

    First, here is an analysis of the KYD eligible horses:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123

    Here are early odds:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Las_Vegas_123
    Of course, workouts, post positions, jockey assignments, are not yet considered.

    Second,
    A couple of races of interest..

    Saturday we have the Oaklawn Handicap with some familiar contenders:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 20, 2024; Oaklawn Park - Race 11; PPs ]
    Red Route One, Skippylongstocking, Last Samurai, and Reincarnate are familiar names.

    Also on Saturday is the Ben Ali Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 20, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
    Kingsbarns was a serious contender in last year's KYD; he makes his 2nd start of the year. Smile Happy has faced tougher.

    Did you ever notice how many of the top horses are owned by big owners? One of the interesting, and less visible, activities that happens around this time of the year is the exhibition/training of 2YOs and the market for buying/selling these horses. Once horses (TBreds or SBreds) start to show their true ability there is a big market for these horses. Horse Agents hang out at training facilities and are familiar/friendly with the trainers and sometimes owners. These agents try to connect buyers with people who have invested time and money, but have not seen a return yet. I recall having a 2YO, purchased for $10k at a yearling sale in November, and by May we had a $50k offer on him. That would have doubled our cost, and only slightly compensated for our dreams. The TBreds formalize this process by having 1f and 2f workouts before a formal auction. An example of what can happen occurred this week when a Tiz The Law filly tied the Ocala Sale record for 2 furlongs (20.1 seconds) and later sold for $1.9M. The new owners didn't have to pay any of the up front costs to break and train this filly, nor risk all of the possible injuries to get the horse to this point. Although I would note that a majority of the injuries and setbacks that contribute to stopping (training) with a horse happens in the last month or two before their first race. It is a gamble, but if you have the money, you can jump right in with a much better chance of getting a talented horse.

    Speaking of great horses, a Flightline full brother (Olivier) was unable to break his maiden this past week, finishing 4th. This was a claiming race and YOU could buy him.

    This Saturday will mark 2 weeks till the KYD.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    There are no Triple Crown related races of interest this week, although there are a couple of interesting races for older horses.

    Second,
    A couple of races of interest..

    Saturday we have the Oaklawn Handicap with some familiar contenders:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 20, 2024; Oaklawn Park - Race 11; PPs ]
    Red Route One, Skippylongstocking, Last Samurai, and Reincarnate are familiar names.

    Also on Saturday is the Ben Ali Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 20, 2024; Keeneland - Race 9; PPs ]
    Kingsbarns was a serious contender in last year's KYD; he makes his 2nd start of the year. Smile Happy has faced tougher.

    This Saturday will mark 2 weeks till the KYD.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Skippylongstocking ran down horses on the turn and won the Oaklawn Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1781821390628515983

    Kingsbarns made easy work of the field in the Ben Ali Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1781803880063369304

    Lackluster field for the Illinois Derby.
    I haven't heard of the Midwest Triple Crown before (although I've heard of the races); here are the dates:
    • Illinois Derby (2024 date / April 21)
    • Ohio Derby (2024 date / June 22)
    • St. Louis Derby Sponsored by FanDuel Sportsbook (2024 date / August 24)

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Sunday April, 21 2024; Hawthorne - Race 8; PPs ]
    This used to be a big race run after the KYD, helping to redeem the confidence and reputation of also ran 3YO horses.
    A $200k race is not very competitive for good 3YOs.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Skippylongstocking ran down horses on the turn and won the Oaklawn Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1781821390628515983

    Kingsbarns made easy work of the field in the Ben Ali Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1781803880063369304

    Lackluster field for the Illinois Derby.
    I haven't heard of the Midwest Triple Crown before (although I've heard of the races); here are the dates:
    • Illinois Derby (2024 date / April 21)
    • Ohio Derby (2024 date / June 22)
    • St. Louis Derby Sponsored by FanDuel Sportsbook (2024 date / August 24)

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Sunday April, 21 2024; Hawthorne - Race 8; PPs ]
    This used to be a big race run after the KYD, helping to redeem the confidence and reputation of also ran 3YO horses.
    A $200k race is not very competitive for good 3YOs.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    The Illinois Derby is poster child for Illinois racing. Only six horses entered. None coming in off a win. Truly sad, but that is what is left of Illinois racing.

    Over the years I drove by the track near East St. Louis, now named Fan Duel. Itís a sad looking place. I was never tempted to go to a race there. I never made it to a race in Chicago, but Arlington which had been rebuilt was a grand looking place. Unlike other states where casinos saved horse racing, they killed horse racing in Illinois. So the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne is basically a non event. The breeding industry in Illinois is also on its death bed.

    At least one Kentucky Derby winner was foaled in Illinois, Dust Commander. He was foaled on a small farm in southern Illinois only about 15 miles north of the Ohio River. This was not a beautiful blue grass farm. It was literally a corn and soybean farm with owners who dabbled in horses. Dust Commanderís first or second crop featured Master Derby a Preakness winner. My recollection, which is subject to misremembering, is Dust Commander was shipped to Japan early in his stud career before Master Derby mad his big splash in the Preakness. Dust Commander was a grandson of Bold Ruler so his sire was good. I canít even find his dam, Dust Storm, listed in Equibase so I am guessing she was a really cheap mare.

    One other bit of news. The announcers at Keeneland showed tape of Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby two years ago. He is currently being treated at a Lexington clinic with stem cells. I didnít catch what he is ailing from. If he comes out of the treatment well he will go back into training. So he is not officially retired. The thought is that whatever the current problem is may have been around for a while and affected his last few races. His Derby race was so impressive I could never understand how he could never run a decent race after that. Of course he ran one good race at Churchill where his jockey Sonny Leon spent more time harassing the horse Tyler Gafflione was on than trying to win the race. Tylerís horse won and Leon got a suspension. If I had owned Rich Strike I would never ride Leon again!

  14. #114
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    The Illinois Derby is poster child for Illinois racing. Only six horses entered. None coming in off a win. Truly sad, but that is what is left of Illinois racing.

    Over the years I drove by the track near East St. Louis, now named Fan Duel. Itís a sad looking place. I was never tempted to go to a race there. I never made it to a race in Chicago, but Arlington which had been rebuilt was a grand looking place. Unlike other states where casinos saved horse racing, they killed horse racing in Illinois. So the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne is basically a non event. The breeding industry in Illinois is also on its death bed.

    At least one Kentucky Derby winner was foaled in Illinois, Dust Commander. He was foaled on a small farm in southern Illinois only about 15 miles north of the Ohio River. This was not a beautiful blue grass farm. It was literally a corn and soybean farm with owners who dabbled in horses. Dust Commanderís first or second crop featured Master Derby a Preakness winner. My recollection, which is subject to misremembering, is Dust Commander was shipped to Japan early in his stud career before Master Derby mad his big splash in the Preakness. Dust Commander was a grandson of Bold Ruler so his sire was good. I canít even find his dam, Dust Storm, listed in Equibase so I am guessing she was a really cheap mare.

    One other bit of news. The announcers at Keeneland showed tape of Rich Strike winning the Kentucky Derby two years ago. He is currently being treated at a Lexington clinic with stem cells. I didnít catch what he is ailing from. If he comes out of the treatment well he will go back into training. So he is not officially retired. The thought is that whatever the current problem is may have been around for a while and affected his last few races. His Derby race was so impressive I could never understand how he could never run a decent race after that. Of course he ran one good race at Churchill where his jockey Sonny Leon spent more time harassing the horse Tyler Gafflione was on than trying to win the race. Tylerís horse won and Leon got a suspension. If I had owned Rich Strike I would never ride Leon again!
    Your post, and Leon's behavior reminded me of the 'Fighting Finish' when Broker's Tip won the Kentucky Derby (no, I wasn't there or alive):
    The jockeys of the 2 lead horses were whipping each other, not their horses:
    Check out these great pictures:
    https://www.google.com/search?q=brok...client=gws-wiz

    Also, Broker's Tip was a maiden when he won the KY Derby (1933); I'm not sure that will happen again. And Broker's Tip only won this race.
    Buchanan (1884) and the great Sir Barton (1919) were the only other maiden KYD winners.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #115
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    Baffert

    So Bob Baffert had sued Churchill Downs again in the Jefferson Circuit Court to gain access to the Derby. Once again the Kentucky court ruled against Bob, denying his request for a temporary injunction. My email was out for three days so I just saw this today. The Judge stated it would be unfair to the owners and trainers who played by the rules to let Baffertís horse in the race. I have a personal message for Bob. Having practiced law in Kentucky for 45 years he will never get a Kentucky court to rule in his favor on this issue with Churchill. Quit paying lawyers who give you false hope. Get on your knees and apologize to Churchill. If I were to guess, this recent lawsuit probably will gain you another year of suspension.

  16. #116
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    So Bob Baffert had sued Churchill Downs again in the Jefferson Circuit Court to gain access to the Derby. Once again the Kentucky court ruled against Bob, denying his request for a temporary injunction. My email was out for three days so I just saw this today. The Judge stated it would be unfair to the owners and trainers who played by the rules to let Baffert’s horse in the race. I have a personal message for Bob. Having practiced law in Kentucky for 45 years he will never get a Kentucky court to rule in his favor on this issue with Churchill. Quit paying lawyers who give you false hope. Get on your knees and apologize to Churchill. If I were to guess, this recent lawsuit probably will gain you another year of suspension.
    Do you think CD will extend the ban to yet another year?
    The ban is supposed to be over after this year's KYD.
    I'm not sure if Baffert is allowed to race in other races at CD, and affiliate tracks.

    If they didn't have Nysos, there'd be no noise.
    I still don't understand how they would re-shuffle the KYD points to Baffert horses should they win (which you have stated is very unlikely).

    Larry
    Devilhorse

  17. #117
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Do you think CD will extend the ban to yet another year?
    The ban is supposed to be over after this year's KYD.
    I'm not sure if Baffert is allowed to race in other races at CD, and affiliate tracks.

    If they didn't have Nysos, there'd be no noise.
    I still don't understand how they would re-shuffle the KYD points to Baffert horses should they win (which you have stated is very unlikely).

    Larry
    Devilhorse
    Not sure what will happen next in the Churchill/Baffert dispute. I believe the current ban applies to all races at Churchill Downs not just the Derby. At some point one party will concede then Baffert can bring his horses back to the Derby. That should be good for all parties. I enjoy watching his horses lose, just like last weekend in the big Oaklawn Park race for older horses.

    An interesting news story last week at Keeneland. Jose Ortiz is moving his tack to Churchill for its spring meet which concludes around July 1. He has had a great meet this spring at Keeneland. After writing this I just read that Jose has bought property right outside Louisville which he and his wife believe will be better for raising their family. He will be a great addition to the jockey colony for Kentucky as he also plans to ride this fall at Keeneland and Churchill while going to Saratoga for their summer meet. Between Keeneland and Churchill, Jose will be able to spend six months a year riding near his new Kentucky home.

  18. #118

    Preakness Future Bet

    OK, this seems like the cart is before the horse a bit.

    1/St Bet has a Preakness advanced bet out.
    I haven't seen any PPs yet, but this page has a pop-up for each horse:
    https://news.1st.com/contenders/prea...-wager-entries
    Here's the DRF view:
    https://www.drf.com/race-entries/tra...ate/04-26-2024

    One thing that is odd (to me anyway) is that 1/St Bet is owned by Stronach. Stronach may or may not own Pimlico at the moment; talks have moved far along to transfer ownership of Pimlico to the state of Maryland. I couldn't say what if anything this all means.

    The Thoroughbred Hall of Fame entrants have been announced:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ll_of_Fame_123
    Headliners are Gun Runner, Justify, and Joel Rosario.
    Interesting that Aristides is entering the hall. Aristides is (of course) the first KYD winner.
    Looking at his pedigree you get a sense of the history of the race horse in America.
    Aristides won his KYD in 1875 (only 149 years ago for the arithmetic impaired, or don't own a calculator).
    But Aristides, within his 11 generation pedigree has the names Bartlett's Childers (by the Darley Arabian), Flying Childers, the Byerly Turk, and the Godolphin Arabian. These are the founding fathers (no pun intended) of the horse breed; these horses do not have known pedigrees, they appeared. These horses were colts and sired this breed and (eventually) the standardbreds and quarter horses. Aristides' broodmare sire was the super-sire Lexington.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-24-2024 at 06:55 AM.

  19. #119
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Saw something at Keeneland today I have never seen. A four year old gelding, Accident, is 0 for 28 but has earned $200,000. He is coming off a good race at Keeneland and might actually win. But not sure the owner wants to win when the horse only costs $3,000.

  20. #120
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Saw something at Keeneland today I have never seen. A four year old gelding, Accident, is 0 for 28 but has earned $200,000. He is coming off a good race at Keeneland and might actually win. But not sure the owner wants to win when the horse only costs $3,000.
    You do have a point. 2nd place can be very lucrative.
    Although, you have to think that the jockey and trainer are in cohoots to do this.

    I remember a stakes caliber pacer named Beutron Hanover; he raced in stakes company and always seemed to finish 2nd. He won over $100k as a 2YO, but only made it to $199k for his career.

    For less talented horses, trainers are very happy to stay in conditions (maiden, NW1, NW2) before having to be in an allowance race; otherwise, you mostly have to go to claimers. Some of these horses do double duty as PETS.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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