Page 5 of 10 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 184
  1. #81

    Weekend 3/9-10/2024

    This weekend looks like a light schedule:

    For the 3YO colts, it is the Tampa Bay Derby being run at..
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 9, 2024; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 11; PPs ]
    No More Time is ranked 15th in the KYD power poll I saw this morning:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ints_preps_123
    Domestic Product is ranked in the top 40, so he would (obviously) not make the starting gate without significant improvement.
    As for this race, No More Time looks to be a length or two better than Domestic Product. No More Time has the controlling speed and there doesn't seem to be another horse that will push the pace (based on history). Grand Mo The First might be the best closer and could do well if someone presses the pace.


    For the 3YO fillies it is the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday March 9, 2024; Santa Anita Park - Race ; PPs ]
    Kinza is undefeated and highly rated; she will be odds on. Ultimate Authority is likely to hit the board. Nay V Belle won first time out, with a good rating; could improve and fill out the triple.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #82

    Justify's SA Derby Settlement

    Another court ruling on Justify's Santa Anita Derby victory (and now disqualification):
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ng-justify-dq/

    This is closing the barn door after the horse has left.

    So Justify didn't earn the KYD points to get in, and win, the KYD. He is also not undefeated, but he is never headed at the finish line.

    Of course, they can still appeal this ruling. Will Justify outlive the end of litigation?

    The goal of the KYD points system is to get the most accomplished horses into the KYD starting gate. I want the best horses to be in the KYD starting gate. It is obvious to me that Justify was the best horse, further bolstered by his top siring record. The rules are still the rules.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend looks like a light schedule:

    For the 3YO colts, it is the Tampa Bay Derby being run at..
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 9, 2024; Tampa Bay Downs - Race 11; PPs ]
    No More Time is ranked 15th in the KYD power poll I saw this morning:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ints_preps_123
    Domestic Product is ranked in the top 40, so he would (obviously) not make the starting gate without significant improvement.
    As for this race, No More Time looks to be a length or two better than Domestic Product. No More Time has the controlling speed and there doesn't seem to be another horse that will push the pace (based on history). Grand Mo The First might be the best closer and could do well if someone presses the pace.


    For the 3YO fillies it is the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday March 9, 2024; Santa Anita Park - Race ; PPs ]
    Kinza is undefeated and highly rated; she will be odds on. Ultimate Authority is likely to hit the board. Nay V Belle won first time out, with a good rating; could improve and fill out the triple.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Domestic Product won the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck:
    http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20240309&RN=11
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1766628081890976037
    There were 4 horses at the line, and the winner received an 83 Beyer. Good exciting finish. DP now qualifies for the KYD with 50 KYD points, but I don't think too many of the others will take a shot.
    In an oddity, the tote boards at several tracks went on the fritz, so the Tampa Bay Derby was a non-betting race.

    Kinza was as good as advertized as she smote a field of fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1766608997866520858
    Why Hernandez continued to hit this horse in the stretch is beyond me.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #84

    KYD Future Pool 5 and KY Oaks Future Pool 1 - 2024

    "The new phone books are here!!!"
    Updated PPs for our best 3YOs can be found on this page:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

    For the KYD, search for "KY Derby Future Wager Pool - Race 5" or search for Fierceness.

    For the KYO, search for "KY Oaks Future Wager Pool - Race 1" or search for Life Talk.

    Let me know if these instructions aren't clear enough.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #85

    No KYD Points 3/16/24

    There are no KYD Points to award (I'm not following Japan and other countries too closely) this weekend. But it is the calm before the storm next weekend with the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby amongst other KYD point races. These are the marquis races for each trail for horses pointed at the KYD. Still the Arkansas, New York, Arizona, and California tributaries of horses will need to be heard from.

    However, there are a couple of non-KYD points races for 3YOs that could produce a top horse down the road. Both of these are sprints:

    For the 3YO colts, the Hutcheson is being run at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...1/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 16, 2024; Gulfstream Park - Race 3; PPs ]
    Valiant Force, Patriot Spirit, and Beeline appear to be favored.

    For the 3YO fillies, the Cicada will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 16, 2024; Aqueduct - Race 6; PPs ]
    If it is Saturday, then they must be expecting rain in NY.
    Miss Harriet looks like a good contender here.

    BTW, Nysos is being given a month off because of a minor injury. No word on how this might affect his Preakness plans.

    Purses for the Breeder's Cup Classic and Turf have been increased by $1M each.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    There are no KYD Points to award (I'm not following Japan and other countries too closely) this weekend. But it is the calm before the storm next weekend with the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby amongst other KYD point races. These are the marquis races for each trail for horses pointed at the KYD. Still the Arkansas, New York, Arizona, and California tributaries of horses will need to be heard from.

    However, there are a couple of non-KYD points races for 3YOs that could produce a top horse down the road. Both of these are sprints:

    For the 3YO colts, the Hutcheson is being run at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...1/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 16, 2024; Gulfstream Park - Race 3; PPs ]
    Valiant Force, Patriot Spirit, and Beeline appear to be favored.

    For the 3YO fillies, the Cicada will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 16, 2024; Aqueduct - Race 6; PPs ]
    If it is Saturday, then they must be expecting rain in NY.
    Miss Harriet looks like a good contender here.

    BTW, Nysos is being given a month off because of a minor injury. No word on how this might affect his Preakness plans.

    Purses for the Breeder's Cup Classic and Turf have been increased by $1M each.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Beeline just eeked out a win in the Hutcheson:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1769066150179262955
    Nice horse race; Beeline was awarded an 82 Beyer.

    Ghalia Princess won the Cicada:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1769094208504422480
    Ghalia Princess was 12 ahead of the 3rd place horse; she received an 85 Beyer.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #87

    Saturday 3/23/2024 KYD and KYO and more

    It is a busy weekend for the 3YOs. I have 2 KYO races for the filies and 5 3YOC races, only 2 of which provide KYD points. If you guys are still interested in the non-KYD points 3YO races, I'll continue to post, but at this time of the year it is not likely that any of these horses (non KYD point race participants) will seek a slot in the starting gate of the KYD. But who knows.

    For the 3YO colts:

    KYD points races:

    At Turfway Park is the Jeff Ruby Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 12; PPs ]
    Originally a minor stakes race, Turfway is putting up $700K so some of these participants must be serious (you'd think).
    Endlessly won the El Camino Real last time out; that has been a productive race (i.e., Rombauer, Blackadder). Endlessly will need some early speed from someone, but only a few horses show any lines like that. This could be a paceless race where anyone can win if they are in the right position. Lucky Jeremy and Agate Road might have the class to be there at the wire.


    The Louisiana Derby might be the big 3YO race of the weekend:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Fair Grounds Race 12; PPs ]
    Track Phantom is a hard hitting horse who always seems to be near the front at the finish line. Sierra Leone is not in this race, to TP has a shot. There are some credible contenders with KYD points who are trying to solidify their KYD points position. Agate Road (again), Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie all have the credentials to hit the board. How often do you see a full field of 12 these days? Track Phantom is a front runner so he is the least likely to suffer from traffic problems. For Agate Road, the Jeff Ruby Stakes is a softer field, so he might go there.

    Non-KYD Points Races:

    The Rushaway is on the undercard at Turfway Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 8; PPs ]
    Neat might take a lot of money, but his only dirt start was terrible. He deserves a shot though. Neat may do OK on the 'all-weather' surface. Tennessee is lightly raced, expensive ($1.2M), and improving. Encino could hit the board; here's an interesting case where Encino is 18th on the KYD point standings, but is not going for more. I think the owners are looking to maximize money and not necessarily to be an also ran in the KYD. There is ample early speed to make this a true test.

    At Laurel is the Private Terms:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Laurel Park Race 9; PPs ]
    Private Terms was a better horse than any of these guys, but there is some nascent talent here. Speedyness is almost as fast as his name. Copper Tax has some back class, but has not shown well since last year's Remsen.

    Oaklawn Park has a lot of 3YO races in the spring, and this week it is the Hot Springs Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Oaklawn Park Race 8; PPs ]
    Nash and Carbone have shown well, but perhaps not enough yet for the Arkansas Derby.


    The American Kingdom will be run on the 'All Weather' track too.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 7; PPs ]
    Valentine Candy looks good in this field. Here is a case where a horse is NOT KYD eligible and is doing very well. He is a son of Justify and perhaps is pointing for other races. Shards will try to get what's left of the pot.

    For the KYO fillies, we have 2 races:

    Turfway Park has the Bourbonette Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 11; PPs ]
    Alpine Princess looks the best in here, but her last race (finished 4th) was on an off track and it looks life the day before will be a soaker; if the track dries out, then AP has a good shot. Band Of Gold had a good race 2 starts ago, and (for you 'sheets' followers) may 'bounce' into a good performance. Winnable may be an upset special.

    Lastly (for this week) is the Fair Grounds Oaks
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Fair Grounds Race 11; PPs ]
    Finally Tarifa makes an appearance and can contend. Perhaps this is the best betting race of the lot with V Vs Dream, Intricate, Our Pretty Woman, and (once again) Alpine Princess staking a claim.

    If it isn't obvious, or already known to you, the entry rules in TBred racing are rather loose. Horses can be entered multiple times (multiple places) and can be scratched anytime (before the race). We have a couple of examples of that in the races listed here (i.e., Alpine Princess and Agate Road).

    Anyone with a favorite for the KYD yet?

    Good luck all.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #88

    Pleasonton Race Track

    Earlier in this thread (or perhaps last year) I mentioned the demise of Golden Gate Racetrack; this is a track right outside of San Francisco. The powers that be, perhaps bending to real estate pressure (it is a great/central location) had decided to give up the ghost.

    An alternative for northern California horse lovers has been been found. The Fair Grounds at Pleasanton will be holding TBred race meets as a replacement. Pleasanton is just 30 miles to the southeast of San Francisco, so it is that bad a ride. Pleasanton, most recently, has been used as a training facility, but it does have a grandstand (which is quite old if I read reports correctly).
    There are other tracks within 3 hours, but not for TBred racing. Cal-Expo is a harness track outside of Sacramento (2 hrs ENE of San Fran).

    I also read about a threat issued (against proposed legislation I believe) to close Santa Anita; tough times in California.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    It is a busy weekend for the 3YOs. I have 2 KYO races for the filies and 5 3YOC races, only 2 of which provide KYD points. If you guys are still interested in the non-KYD points 3YO races, I'll continue to post, but at this time of the year it is not likely that any of these horses (non KYD point race participants) will seek a slot in the starting gate of the KYD. But who knows.

    For the 3YO colts:

    KYD points races:

    At Turfway Park is the Jeff Ruby Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 12; PPs ]
    Originally a minor stakes race, Turfway is putting up $700K so some of these participants must be serious (you'd think).
    Endlessly won the El Camino Real last time out; that has been a productive race (i.e., Rombauer, Blackadder). Endlessly will need some early speed from someone, but only a few horses show any lines like that. This could be a paceless race where anyone can win if they are in the right position. Lucky Jeremy and Agate Road might have the class to be there at the wire.


    The Louisiana Derby might be the big 3YO race of the weekend:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Fair Grounds Race 12; PPs ]
    Track Phantom is a hard hitting horse who always seems to be near the front at the finish line. Sierra Leone is not in this race, to TP has a shot. There are some credible contenders with KYD points who are trying to solidify their KYD points position. Agate Road (again), Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie all have the credentials to hit the board. How often do you see a full field of 12 these days? Track Phantom is a front runner so he is the least likely to suffer from traffic problems. For Agate Road, the Jeff Ruby Stakes is a softer field, so he might go there.

    Non-KYD Points Races:

    The Rushaway is on the undercard at Turfway Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 8; PPs ]
    Neat might take a lot of money, but his only dirt start was terrible. He deserves a shot though. Neat may do OK on the 'all-weather' surface. Tennessee is lightly raced, expensive ($1.2M), and improving. Encino could hit the board; here's an interesting case where Encino is 18th on the KYD point standings, but is not going for more. I think the owners are looking to maximize money and not necessarily to be an also ran in the KYD. There is ample early speed to make this a true test.

    At Laurel is the Private Terms:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Laurel Park Race 9; PPs ]
    Private Terms was a better horse than any of these guys, but there is some nascent talent here. Speedyness is almost as fast as his name. Copper Tax has some back class, but has not shown well since last year's Remsen.

    Oaklawn Park has a lot of 3YO races in the spring, and this week it is the Hot Springs Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Oaklawn Park Race 8; PPs ]
    Nash and Carbone have shown well, but perhaps not enough yet for the Arkansas Derby.


    The American Kingdom will be run on the 'All Weather' track too.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 7; PPs ]
    Valentine Candy looks good in this field. Here is a case where a horse is NOT KYD eligible and is doing very well. He is a son of Justify and perhaps is pointing for other races. Shards will try to get what's left of the pot.

    For the KYO fillies, we have 2 races:

    Turfway Park has the Bourbonette Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Turfway Park Race 11; PPs ]
    Alpine Princess looks the best in here, but her last race (finished 4th) was on an off track and it looks life the day before will be a soaker; if the track dries out, then AP has a good shot. Band Of Gold had a good race 2 starts ago, and (for you 'sheets' followers) may 'bounce' into a good performance. Winnable may be an upset special.

    Lastly (for this week) is the Fair Grounds Oaks
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 23, 2024; Fair Grounds Race 11; PPs ]
    Finally Tarifa makes an appearance and can contend. Perhaps this is the best betting race of the lot with V Vs Dream, Intricate, Our Pretty Woman, and (once again) Alpine Princess staking a claim.

    If it isn't obvious, or already known to you, the entry rules in TBred racing are rather loose. Horses can be entered multiple times (multiple places) and can be scratched anytime (before the race). We have a couple of examples of that in the races listed here (i.e., Alpine Princess and Agate Road).

    Anyone with a favorite for the KYD yet?

    Good luck all.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Endlessly won the Jeff Ruby Stakes (correctly spelled) in fine fashion:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771666638661644383
    Endlessly broke 3rd to last and was content to sit there until the middle of the far turn. He then went 4 wide and pulled away (No Beyer figure yet). The pace was slow, so closing a ton into that situation is impressive.

    Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771672602962268186
    Catching Freedom was dead last and closed a ton into a moderate pace. He needed all of the long stretch to get up. He was awarded an impressive 97 Beyer. Honor Marie showed improvement finishing 2nd. Track Phantom faded in the stretch to 4th; he might be best at a mile or less (pacesetter for the KYD if the owners are stupid enough to pay the entrance fee); but then, perhaps he wasn't intending to win. Catching Freedom is by Constitution and won't mind longer distance.

    Copper Tax put in a good effort in the Private Terms:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771636437462761724
    Copper Tax was way back on a way muddy track to win going away.

    Trikari held on to win the Rushaway:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771633871576293740
    The race had modest fractions.

    It is worth noting that Endlessly and Trikari are both out of the young sire Oscar Performance!! His oldest performers are 4YOs, so having a couple of top 3YOs is saying something.

    At Oaklawn Park, Nash was the favorite and came through to win the Hot Springs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771650999230324772
    Nash looked very good, although the 26 last quarter will not win many classic races. He might want to go longer than a mile though.

    The Animal Kingdom went to Okiro:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771626547331694640
    The lead horse obviously went too fast and was set up to be run down.

    For the fillies

    Everland was a longshot winner of the Bourbonette Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771657769588080916
    Everland had a rail skimming ride and had more than enough to win.

    Tarifa was terrific winning the Fair Grounds Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1771663227169947821
    Tarifa beat out a stubborn Our Pretty Woman. I don't think this is the last time these two will hook up.

    Fierceness will square off against Hades in the Florida Derby next Saturday.

    Mystik Dan will be pointed towards the Arkansas Derby (also next Saturday, March 30). Mystic Dan has the best Beyer of the year (103) for the 3YOs.

    A week later is the Wood Memorial.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #90

    Dubai World Cup 2024

    The Dubai world cup is Saturday:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...bai-world-cup/

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #91

    Some Goodies for 3/30/2024

    I think we're at the peak of the KYD trail now.

    For the boys:

    Florida Derby
    Http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Gulfstream Park – Race 12; PPs ]
    Undefeated Hades brings his kit to this race. The formidable Fierceness is trying to show that he's still the top colt and his loss to Hades was an aberration. Fierceness has (only) 36 KYD Points (good for 13th), so he needs a few more; he should at least make try and hit the board. Hades is a front runner and Fierceness will either try to stay closer or he needs to display a better stretch kick. Frankie's Empire, Conquest Warrior, and Le Dom Bro have credentials to hit the board or even win. Good betting race if you have a favorite.


    Arkansas Derby
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Oaklawn Park – Race 12; PPs ]
    Nice horses here, headlines by Timberlake and Muth. Timberlake and Muth have similar lines and are coming up to this race sharply. But Timberlake is already in the KYD (with 66 KYD points) and Muth is not going to the KYD, thanks to all that Baffert weight on his back. I would go with Muth since this is his derby. Mystic Dan has the highest Beyer this year for 3YOs, and he won the Southwest Stakes; must consider.

    For the girls:

    Gulfstream Park Oaks
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Gulfstream Park – Race 11; PPs ]
    Well thought of Ways And Means makes her first start of the year; her works look good. I'm not convinced she will like the distance, but her sire Practical Joke has sired some distance liking foals. Gun Song is speedy, and in shape, but has not faced stakes company yet. Fiona's Magic also has speed.


    Fantasy Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Oaklawn Park – Race 11; PPs ]
    The name of the day is also the favorite in the Fantasy Stakes for 3YOF. My Mane Squeeze has speed and some bottom. I don't think she's gone 2 turns yet, but few have. Where's My Ring ships in from California, and shows speed. Lemon Muffin has speed, but word on the backstretch is that she is a tart

    No Dubai Cup PPs .. yet.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #92

    Saudi Cup 2024 PPs

    I found some PPs for the Saudi Cup card:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BaQ...szr5JVYOJ/view

    The Saudi Cup is Race 9 and is at 12:35ET.

    The UAE Derby, with KYD Points, is Race 5 at 9:50am EDT.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #93
    It was US bred Laurel River who won the Dubai World Cup:
    https://emiratesracing.com/racecard/...3-30/9/results
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774117061918404766
    Senor Buscador was just nipped for 2nd (poor horse only gets $1.2M). Laurel River went to the front and never looked back. Laurel River's sire, Into Mischief, had a great day (see my next post).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    I think we're at the peak of the KYD trail now.

    For the boys:

    Florida Derby
    Http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Gulfstream Park – Race 12; PPs ]
    Undefeated Hades brings his kit to this race. The formidable Fierceness is trying to show that he's still the top colt and his loss to Hades was an aberration. Fierceness has (only) 36 KYD Points (good for 13th), so he needs a few more; he should at least make try and hit the board. Hades is a front runner and Fierceness will either try to stay closer or he needs to display a better stretch kick. Frankie's Empire, Conquest Warrior, and Le Dom Bro have credentials to hit the board or even win. Good betting race if you have a favorite.


    Arkansas Derby
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Oaklawn Park – Race 12; PPs ]
    Nice horses here, headlines by Timberlake and Muth. Timberlake and Muth have similar lines and are coming up to this race sharply. But Timberlake is already in the KYD (with 66 KYD points) and Muth is not going to the KYD, thanks to all that Baffert weight on his back. I would go with Muth since this is his derby. Mystic Dan has the highest Beyer this year for 3YOs, and he won the Southwest Stakes; must consider.

    For the girls:

    Gulfstream Park Oaks
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Gulfstream Park – Race 11; PPs ]
    Well thought of Ways And Means makes her first start of the year; her works look good. I'm not convinced she will like the distance, but her sire Practical Joke has sired some distance liking foals. Gun Song is speedy, and in shape, but has not faced stakes company yet. Fiona's Magic also has speed.


    Fantasy Stakes
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday March 30, 2024; Oaklawn Park – Race 11; PPs ]
    The name of the day is also the favorite in the Fantasy Stakes for 3YOF. My Mane Squeeze has speed and some bottom. I don't think she's gone 2 turns yet, but few have. Where's My Ring ships in from California, and shows speed. Lemon Muffin has speed, but word on the backstretch is that she is a tart

    No Dubai Cup PPs .. yet.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    It was a great day of racing with a lot of storylines emerging.

    Fierceness won the Florida Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774209744913289355
    This was a 'hair on the back of your neck' kind of result, winning by almost 14 lengths. Fierceness was awarded a tremendous 110 Beyer. City of Light (his sire) will not doubt be awarded a higher stud fee (Fierceness is from only his 2nd crop). The only question here is consistency; this horse shows up only half the time.

    Muth won the Arkansas Derby:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774237495435092076
    Muth was awarded a 98 Beyer for his effort. As mentioned earlier, this son of Good Magic is not going to the KYD, so he was prepped to win here. Timberlake (faded to 4th) has more than enough KYD points and may show an improved effort in the KYD. Timberlake is by Into Mischief, but we know Authentic proved IM can sire a classic winner. Stay tuned.


    Power Squeeze won the Gulfstream Park Oaks, just nudging out Ways And Means.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774182169155453261
    Ways and Means needed the start and will be formidable. Power Squeeze was awarded a 92 Beyer.

    Thorpedo Anna won the Fantasy Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774214862002110655
    Thorpedo Anna was awarded a 91 Beyer.

    The UAE Derby was run yesterday at Meydan:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774397647077470548
    Forever Young is undefeated and is coming to the US to compete in the KYD!!! Horses shipping from the Saudi/Dubai meets have not done well in general in the KYD, but it is just a matter of time.

    An interesting 3YOC made his first start yesterday. Mindframe is a highly watched son of Constitution:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1774129955196346642
    Mindframe was awarded a 103 Beyer (same track/day where Fierceness was awarded a 110). I noted that Mindframe was not touched in the stretch; plenty more left in the tank.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va

    DH Thanks!!

    I continue to read all that you post here and am looking forward to the KYD. Mostly the probable field is set, yes? Still have some points races this weekend and next, but not many 3YOs run on short rest (until the Preakness and Belmont).
    It doesn't seem to me there's a prohibitive favorite at this point. Besides looking at Beyer's and other past results what else does one study to try to handicap this race? Usually the runners have very little race experience and especially at this distance.
    Always looking for a nugget! Thx!!

    Currently:

    Sierra leone is 7-1
    Fierceness 9-1
    All other 3yos 11-1
    Timberlake 12-1
    Forever Young 12-1
    Dornoch 13-1
    Mystik Dan 16-1
    Conquest Warrior 16-1
    Deterministic 16-1

    Rest are at least 20-1

  16. #96

    Saturday 4/6/2024

    As I write this, we are exactly 1 month from the KYD.
    This is the last big weekend to accrue KYD points; next weekend there is 1 more race with points, the Lexington at Keeneland. The rest is hype and decisions by the groups.

    Misc:
    • One such decision has been made, with Timberlake's lackluster 4th place finish last week, that ownership group decided they will pass on the KYD and aim for the Preakness. One more slot open for late comers with few points.
    • I also saw that it is predicted that the point cut-off will be higher this year than ever. That either means they are giving out more points or there is more distribution of points in the field.
    • The Bay Shore Stakes (also run this Saturday) used to be contended earlier in the year and WAS a stepping stone toward the KYD; but with horses running fewer prep races, the fields would be smaller and not commensurate with the prestige of this 7f race, previously won by KYD winners like Secretariat, Damascus, and Bold Forbes. See the PPs on the Pletcher page.
    • One of Baffert's owners (owner of Muth) is bringing legal action against Churchill Downs in an effort to get Baffert horses into the KYD field. I don't know how that will work because they have not awarded KYD points to his horses.



    Onto the pointers.

    For the colts, we have 3 races giving points (note the Bay Shore at Aqueduct is being contended Saturday, but it is a sprint and has no points to award).

    The Wood Memorial will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Aqueduct – Race 10; PPs ]
    Deterministic and Tuscan Sky are undefeated and have good ratings. Uncle Heavy (apparently) missed some time, but he has been better on an off track than a good track. The weather is good for Saturday. E Grande O goes to the front and might fade if he is challenged; and there is other early speed in the race. Resiliance is from out of town and is looking for a payday and points; he has Mott and Velasquez. I think Deterministic is the best horse, but Resiliance is the best bet.


    Opening weekend at Keeneland will provide the Blue Grass Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Keeneland – Race 10; PPs ]
    This could be a good race; there are 3 horses that won their last Stakes race that gave them KYD points. Dornoch (Fountain of Youth), Sierra Leone (Risen Star), and Encino (Battaglia). Just A Touch is also a serious contender. Be You could hit the board. Mugatu is expected to bite the dust (any Star Trek fans out there?). This is a tough race to pick because I have a theory that once horses have enough KYD points to get in, they don't necessarily press them in their last prep race; cynical, but it will be true for some of these guys. Bet who needs the points. I'll pick Just A Touch; odds should give it a good ROI potential.

    The Santa Anita Derby is at ...(guess):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Santa Anita Park – Race 10; PPs ]
    This looks like a race between Stronghold, Imagination, and Wynstock. Stronghold is NOT a Baffert horse. Wynstock's last race can be thrown out. Imagination won his last with a determined stretch drive. Stronghold needs the points and his jockey is winning at a 19% clip; I'll pick him.


    For the fillies:

    The Gazelle will be run at Aqueduct:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Aqueduct – Race 8; PPs ]
    Where's My Ring comes in from California after butting heads with Kinza. Jose Lezcano is a solid jockey, although lesser known. Life Talk needed her last race. Exacta box.


    The Santa Anita Oaks will be run at eh..can't remember:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Santa Anita Park – Race 6; PPs ]
    Kinza is Queen; probably the best 3YO filly around. Kopion rounds out the exacta.

    and, the Kentucky Derby Future Pool#6 PPs are also available:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Saturday April 6, 2024; Ky Derby Future – Race 6; PPs ]
    Do you think anyone who is paying attention will be betting on Timberlake?

    On Friday, there is a 3YO race for fillies of importance. The Ashland run at Keeneland:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Friday April 5, 2024; Keeneland – Race 9; PPs ]
    Candied, Just F Y I, Impel, and Leslie's Rose are top contenders. Each has something to say for themselves. Just F Y I was the 2YO filly champion, but has had issues getting started this year. Leslie's Rose needed her last race. Candied probably needs this race (pass). Impel, undefeated but not yet showing the speed she will need. Halina's Forte is improving and in shape. Just F Y I needs the points I think; only 12 get into the KYO.

    The Mine That Bird Derby will also be run at Sunland Park, but I recognize no horses, no trainers, and there are no points. Mine That Bird was recently found at the KY Horse Park temporarily.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 04-04-2024 at 12:03 PM.

  17. #97

    Guinevere, Phone Books, and Odds and Ends

    Folks,

    A few quickees.

    Guinevere, partially owned by forum member TheDevilMadeMeDoIt, is having her second start today in the 10th race at Keeneland.
    Here is an article that mentions her as a horse to watch; PPs are pointed to in the article:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...d-opening-day/

    As I like to say, borrowing from the movie The Jerk, "The New Foalbooks are here!!".
    At Keeneland today is the first 2YO race of the year.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...3/summary.html
    [ URL above; Friday April, 5 2024; Keeneland - Race 2; PPs ]
    Apparently they are all first time starters

    I think I mentioned that Pimlico was being given/sold to the state of Maryland by the Stronach Group.
    Apparently, Churchill Downs wants to own it and has put in a bid.
    Perhaps an effort to ban Baffert from the Preakness too??

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    A few quickees.

    Guinevere, partially owned by forum member TheDevilMadeMeDoIt, is having her second start today in the 10th race at Keeneland.
    Here is an article that mentions her as a horse to watch; PPs are pointed to in the article:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...d-opening-day/

    As I like to say, borrowing from the movie The Jerk, "The New Foalbooks are here!!".
    At Keeneland today is the first 2YO race of the year.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...3/summary.html
    [ URL above; Friday April, 5 2024; Keeneland - Race 2; PPs ]
    Apparently they are all first time starters

    I think I mentioned that Pimlico was being given/sold to the state of Maryland by the Stronach Group.
    Apparently, Churchill Downs wants to own it and has put in a bid.
    Perhaps an effort to ban Baffert from the Preakness too??

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Guinevere had it tough yesterday:
    http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20240405&RN=10
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776370762758398065
    She got pinched early, then boxed, and didn't change leads in the stretch. Tough breaks.

    That 2YO race produced a good looking starter:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776303431172452425
    Shoot It True showed class. This filly was the only one in the field that cost more than $40k (she cost $320k), and she was beating colts. Even though the time was good, what did she beat. TBD.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    As I write this, we are exactly 1 month from the KYD.
    This is the last big weekend to accrue KYD points; next weekend there is 1 more race with points, the Lexington at Keeneland. The rest is hype and decisions by the groups.


    On Friday, there is a 3YO race for fillies of importance. The Ashland run at Keeneland:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above; Friday April 5, 2024; Keeneland – Race 9; PPs ]
    Candied, Just F Y I, Impel, and Leslie's Rose are top contenders. Each has something to say for themselves. Just F Y I was the 2YO filly champion, but has had issues getting started this year. Leslie's Rose needed her last race. Candied probably needs this race (pass). Impel, undefeated but not yet showing the speed she will need. Halina's Forte is improving and in shape. Just F Y I needs the points I think; only 12 get into the KYO.

    The Mine That Bird Derby will also be run at Sunland Park, but I recognize no horses, no trainers, and there are no points. Mine That Bird was recently found at the KY Horse Park temporarily.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Leslie's Rose won the Ashland over Just F Y I and Impel:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1776361744509845725
    Impel cut the race and faded; Just F Y I needed this race.
    95 Beyer for Leslie's Rose the $1.15M daughter of Into Mischief.

    BTW, a full brother to Mage and Bluegrass entrant Dornoch was born this week.

    I note that Dornoch and Sierra Leone finished 1-2 in the Remsen last year.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    I continue to read all that you post here and am looking forward to the KYD. Mostly the probable field is set, yes? Still have some points races this weekend and next, but not many 3YOs run on short rest (until the Preakness and Belmont).
    It doesn't seem to me there's a prohibitive favorite at this point. Besides looking at Beyer's and other past results what else does one study to try to handicap this race? Usually the runners have very little race experience and especially at this distance.
    Always looking for a nugget! Thx!!

    Currently:

    Sierra leone is 7-1
    Fierceness 9-1
    All other 3yos 11-1
    Timberlake 12-1
    Forever Young 12-1
    Dornoch 13-1
    Mystik Dan 16-1
    Conquest Warrior 16-1
    Deterministic 16-1

    Rest are at least 20-1
    DT,

    First, thanks for your post. I missed it because I get anxious to post the weekend's race picks. It takes a while. Please post again.

    Second, your question.
    There's a lot to look at other than the Beyers. There are many factors on the PPs, and some that are not. How you assign weight to them, and assign importance, is the game (along with money management which is for spending a day at races, not one race). And it isn't just the Beyers/Program you look at. A couple of items I look for include:
    + obvious things are whether a horse likes a particular track or certain conditions. Pedigree comes into play. If you read this forum, you know that when the weather is bad, I like descendants of Gone West (a superior sire of wet track horses). Super Saver (not a Gone West descendant) won the KYD on an off track; this amazingly breeds through and has given big payoffs for his progeny. I try to include breeding information in my posts because.. I like it and I look for it.
    + Was the horse boxed? Especially rail horses that are not front runners. The KYD trail fields get bigger as the KYD approaches, so getting boxed is real. The Briswatch lines and Daily Racing forms do a terrible job identifying these cases. You have to watch the races and form your own conclusion. Twitter URLs I give you are great for moving back and forth and checking for such things. I used to go to my local races (yes, harness races at Roosevelt Raceway) on each Monday night one summer. A horse named Far Star N was boxed to high heaven one week and had pace; the next week he paid $12 and change from the 4 post running in the same company. Being boxed was not in the program, although they have a symbol for it. Horses are blocked almost every race.
    + Some top jockeys have to choose their mounts for the KYD, leaving mounts available for other great jockeys. It happens that jockeys pick wrongly (how are my adverbs doing?). For example, John Velasquez, who is likely to pick Fierceness for his KYD mount, just won on Resilience in the Wood Memorial. He'd be crazy not to pick Fierceness, but maybe Resilience whispered something to him.
    + Picking a horse in the KYD can be a multi-year event. What I mean is that when you bet in certain types of races, you have to know a trainer's modus operandi on the derby trail to decide if he is prepping a horse or not for a particular race. Make notes and make observations. Not every horse is given maximum, legal preparation or training for a race they are entered into. I don't know if the motivation is to have better odds or to set up to win. Horses CAN NOT give their best effort and win everytime, except some exceptional horses. For example, the 2YO that won yesterday's first 2YO race was trained by Wesley Ward. Ward is known for having his horses ready to go early; sometimes later in the year, not so much. Too bad Ward no longer has a Briswatch page that works; I liked following his young ones. So, by tuning in to this forum and the races you get a much better feel for all kinds of tendencies.

    I hope others will share their observations.
    It is more complicated than just picking numbers for sure.

    Third, I just cashed a big ticket on Resiliance.. I'm thrilled (I had left a tip upstream). This is after learning that the horse/jockey that fell in the race are in good shape. I never like benefiting during a race with those circumstances. More tomorrow on the Wood..

    That's all I could think of before the next race coming up. Good Luck.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

Similar Threads

  1. Horse Racing 2023
    By DevilHorse in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 480
    Last Post: 12-27-2023, 07:06 AM
  2. Horse Racing 2022
    By DevilHorse in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 560
    Last Post: 01-01-2023, 09:05 AM
  3. Horse Racing 2021
    By DevilHorse in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 443
    Last Post: 10-14-2022, 11:29 AM
  4. Horse Racing 2020
    By DevilHorse in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 274
    Last Post: 05-26-2021, 07:28 AM
  5. Horse Racing - 2019
    By DevilHorse in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 53
    Last Post: 05-20-2019, 07:26 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •