Bowl Prediction Thread

[duke2x]

FSU (11-0) ... @uf, (N)Lville ... 18.8 ... Sugar (CFP)
Lville (10-1) ... ky, (N)FSU ... 13.2 ... Orange Miami
ND (8-3) ... @stanford ... 15.7 ... Reliaquest Tampa
UNC (8-3) ... @ncsu ... 10.1 ... TaxSlayer Gator Jacksonsville
NCSU (8-3) ... unc ... 6.1 ... Pop-Tarts Orlando (didn't realize Pop-Tarts hyphenated)
Clemson (7-4) ... @socar ... 10.2 ... Holiday San Diego
DUKE (6-5) ... pitt ... 9.1 ... Duke's Mayo Charlotte
Miami (6-5) ... @bc ... 8.9 ... Military Annapolis
GT (6-5) ... uga ... 3.1 ... Pinstripe NYC
BC (6-5) ... miami ... -2.4 ... Wasabi Fenway Boston
---------------------------------------------
VT (5-6) ... @uva ... 3.7 ... Tony the Tiger Sun El Paso
Syr (5-6) ... wfu ... -0.4 ... Armed Forces Fort Worth

Duke is the #25 team per the SRS. We deserve a Florida bowl against a P5 opponent.

As much as I would consider going Ozzie across campus with this result, I can't see it without Riley being upgraded to probable before next Sunday. All I see is Duke getting the last spot based on recent play. That could be like Wake last year where they got a P5 team; Mizzou was better team than UCF or UC.

Fixed the Syracuse typo for you.

Sidenote: I was unaware Pop Rockets and Sweet Tarts got married and had children.

[BigWayne]

School (record) ... remaining games ... simple rating system rating ... McMurphy projection

McMurphy's bowl projections: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/...=BrettMcMurphy

Teams ordered first by wins, then by SRS.

***

FSU (11-0) ... @uf, (N)Lville ... 18.8 ... Sugar (CFP)

Lville (10-1) ... ky, (N)FSU ... 13.2 ... Orange Miami

ND (8-3) ... @stanford ... 15.7 ... Reliaquest Tampa
UNC (8-3) ... @ncsu ... 10.1 ... TaxSlayer Gator Jacksonsville
NCSU (8-3) ... unc ... 6.1 ... Pop-Tarts Orlando (didn't realize Pop-Tarts hyphenated)

Clemson (7-4) ... @socar ... 10.2 ... Holiday San Diego

DUKE (6-5) ... pitt ... 9.1 ... Duke's Mayo Charlotte
Miami (6-5) ... @bc ... 8.9 ... Military Annapolis
GT (6-5) ... uga ... 3.1 ... Pinstripe NYC
BC (6-5) ... miami ... -2.4 ... Wasabi Fenway Boston

---------------------------------------------


VT (5-6) ... @uva ... 3.7 ... Tony the Tiger Sun El Paso
Syr (5-7) ... wfu ... -0.4 ... Armed Forces Fort Worth


Duke is the #25 team per the SRS. We deserve a Florida bowl against a P5 opponent.

I'm inclined to root (in a way) for a UNC blowout over NCSU and a Duke blowout over Pitt, securing the Pop-Tarts Bowl for the Devils. The doctrine of double effect says a person is morally allowed to do a good act (root for sunshine for the Devils by hoping for another NCSU loss) even if it has harmful consequences (goats bleating about how good they are).

If we had won at UVA and finish with a win over Pitt, we would have been in the mix for the Florida bowls and the Holiday. With the UVA loss, I don't see how we move up over Clemson or State, unless something unpredictable happens this week.

[Reilly]

... I don't see how we move up over ... State ...

We dominated State. We are a better team than State. The numbers bear that out. Do not be distracted by their win total.

[Reilly]

... I was unaware Pop Rockets and Sweet Tarts got married and had children ...

I often wonder what America would've looked like had Mikey lived ... what if he had lined his tummy with some Kellogg's* product beforehand?

*Apparently it's Kellanova now.

"Kellanova is a leading company in global snacking, international cereal and noodles, plant-based foods and North American frozen breakfast, with iconic, world-class brands."

My Q: who enjoys a frozen breakfast?

[cbarry]

I'm inclined to root (in a way) for a UNC blowout over NCSU and a Duke blowout over Pitt, securing the Pop-Tarts Bowl for the Devils. The doctrine of double effect says a person is morally allowed to do a good act (root for sunshine for the Devils by hoping for another NCSU loss) even if it has harmful consequences (goats bleating about how good they are).

To me, there is NEVER a time for us to root for UNC to win. NEVER.

[BigWayne]

We dominated State. We are a better team than State. The numbers bear that out. Do not be distracted by their win total.

We are talking about bowls here. Outside of the CFP rankings, you are dealing with people and their perceptions. State is getting votes in the polls, Duke is not anymore.

[Reilly]

#25 Duke - results ordered by point differential

+35 ... Lafayette
+34 ... @#123 Connecticut
+24 ... #65 Northwestern
+21 ... #22 Clemson
+21 ... #41 NCSU
+03 ... #92 WFU
---------------------------------
-02 ... @ #23 UNC
-03 ... @ #86 Virginia
-07 ... #12 Notre Dame
-18 ... @ #6 FSU
-23 ... @ #15 Lville


#41 NCSU - results ordered by point differential

+38 ... VMI
+20 ... @#92 WFU
+14 ... #27 Miami
+10 ... @#123 Connecticut
+07 ... #22 Clemson
+07 ... @#52 VaTech
+07 ... #105 Marshall
+03 ... @#86 Virginia
---------------------------------------
-03 ... #15 Lville
-21 ... #12 Notre Dame
-21 ... #25 Duke

Common opponents:

- Duke beat NCSU head to head
- Duke did better against UConn than did NCSU
- Duke did better against ND than did NCSU
- Duke did better against Clemson than did NCSU

- NCSU did better against Lville than did Duke
- NCSU did better against WFU than did Duke
- NCSU did better against Virginia than did Duke

If State were to lose badly to UNC, that'd be another common opponent "win" for Duke over NCSU, and may change perceptions of NCSU.


2023 College Football School Ratings | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

[Reilly]

#25 Duke - results ordered by point differential

+35 ... Lafayette
+34 ... @#123 Connecticut
+24 ... #65 Northwestern
+21 ... #22 Clemson
+21 ... #41 NCSU
+03 ... #92 WFU
---------------------------------
-02 ... @ #23 UNC
-03 ... @ #86 Virginia
-07 ... #12 Notre Dame
-18 ... @ #6 FSU
-23 ... @ #15 Lville


#23 North Carolina - results ordered by point differential

+52 ... Campbell
+33 ... #78 Syracuse
+18 ... #67 Minnesota
+17 ... @ #89 Pitt
+10 ... #27 Miami
+14 ... (N) #60 SoCar
+06 ... #53 AppSt
+02 ... #25 Duke
---------------------------------------
-04 ... #86 Virginia
-04 ... @ #55 GT
-11 ... @ #22 Clemson

Common opponents:

UNC beat Duke by 2 in 2OT at UNC
Duke did better against Virginia than did UNC
Duke did better against Clemson than did UNC

Duke 2-4 against top 50
UNC 2-1 against top 50 (UNC hasn't played much of anybody)

If UNC gets curbstomped by NCSU, could be an argument for Duke to get the better bowl.

[Reilly]

Duke played in Charlotte in 2012.

UNC played in Charlotte in 2021, 2013, 2009, 2008, 2004.

NCSU played in Charlotte in 2022, 2015, 2011, 2005.

I'm afraid it's our turn.

[duke2x]

Duke played in Charlotte in 2012.
UNC played in Charlotte in 2021, 2013, 2009, 2008, 2004.
NCSU played in Charlotte in 2022, 2015, 2011, 2005.

I'm afraid it's our turn.

It's a SEC team this year, probably Auburn. I would love that if Riley comes back.

Clemson last played in Charlotte in 2010. They will go first if they are on the table.

[Reilly]

It's a SEC team this year, probably Auburn. I would love that if Riley comes back.

Clemson last played in Charlotte in 2010. They will go first if they are on the table.

UNC will be 8-4 or 9-3.
NCSU will be 8-4 or 9-3.
Duke better be 7-5.
Clemson will be 8-4 or 7-5.

Jacksonville - Gator - Dec 29 against the likes of Tenn
Orlando - Pop-Tarts - Dec 28 against the likes of Kansas State
San Diego - Holiday - Dec 27 against the likes of Oregon State
Charlotte - Duke's Mayo - Dec 27 against the likes of Kentucky

My preferences: P5 opponent (no Temple or UCF or Northern Illinois or Cincy) + Florida or warm weather bowl + later in the calendar.

Charlotte gives us the P5 opponent. Will be fine/fun. Just wish 4th-and-16 would've been stopped or Riley stayed healthy or we beat UVa to put Florida/warm weather even more in play.

[brevity]

Duke better be 7-5.

But no pressure.

My preferences: P5 opponent (no Temple or UCF or Northern Illinois or Cincy) + Florida or warm weather bowl + later in the calendar.

I know you're listing examples of Duke's previous bowl opponents, but these days UCF and Cincinnati are P5 opponents. (The Bearcats are 3-8, but the Knights are 5-6 and could pick up their 6th win against Houston.)

[Reilly]

Relevant spreads:

Duke 6 pt favorite over Pitt

Clemson 7.5 pt favorite over SoCar

UNC 2.5 pt favorite over NCSt

[BigWayne]

If Wake can beat Syracuse, they will knock the orange off the bowl list and probably get themselves into a bowl.
They are the top rated APR team that could be 5-7. It's looking like there will not be enough 6 win teams to fill all the bowl slots.
JMU and Jax State will likely get a spot and then if a 3rd team is needed, a 5-7 Wake would get in.

[duke2x]

The most important game for Duke this week after Pitt is VT-UVA. A UVA win lets VT spend its bowl season with Snoop Dogg instead of taking a P5 game at 6-6.

[BigWayne]

One more big day for the bulk of the bowl bound teams.
18 teams left with a chance to earn bowl eligibility the regular way and 13 spots unfilled.
5 of the 18 are expected to win tomorrow. 6 are expected to lose. 7 are in games where it could go either way.

[Reilly]

One more big day for the bulk of the bowl bound teams.
18 teams left with a chance to earn bowl eligibility the regular way and 13 spots unfilled.
5 of the 18 are expected to win tomorrow. 6 are expected to lose. 7 are in games where it could go either way.

JMU watching the results ...

Kickoffs (ET) for the 18 going for win #6:

12: Navy, UCF, NIllini
1: Rice
2: Syracuse, ODU
3: Louisiana
3:30: BYU, Illini, Minnesota, VaTech, Marshall
4: WashSt
7: Florida
7:30: SoCar, SFL
10:30: Cal
11: ColoSt

Let's say 12 of the 18 get the 6th win tomorrow, but not Navy ... and then Navy still goes for win #6 on December 9 against Army, with the first bowl December 16.

[Mike Petrik]

The most important game for Duke this week after Pitt is VT-UVA. A UVA win lets VT spend its bowl season with Snoop Dogg instead of taking a P5 game at 6-6.

Am I right that a VT loss, however unlikely, is no longer important for us now that we beat Pitt?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Am I right that a VT loss, however unlikely, is no longer important for us now that we beat Pitt?

I think any loss that degrades ACC teams that we HAVEN'T played is good for our bowl prospects.

[Mike Petrik]

I think any loss that degrades ACC teams that we HAVEN'T played is good for our bowl prospects.

Got it. Thanks.