What will we see from a sophomore Kyle Filipowski?

[scottdude8]

Figured this was worth its own thread considering the rampant speculation about what Kyle will look like in Year 2, especially given he'll likely be playing more minutes at the 5.

There's also this new analytics-driven piece on ESPN, which outlines a lot of evidence that a huge bump in Kyle's 3 point percentage may be in the cards. The TL;DR version: in approximately the past 20 years, players who have shot below 30% from 3 on more than 100 attempts in their freshman or sophomore year upped their 3 point shooting by around 7 percent the following season.

John Gasaway makes an under-the-radar argument for why this is likely the case: players who are shooting that many 3s likely have the "green light" from their coaches, meaning they have the fundamentals of a good shot that isn't necessarily coming out in game action. Add in a little offseason improvement and you're more likely to regress to the mean.

Kyle attempted 124 threes last year, and my bet is that he'll attempt more this year. If we give him an even 150 attempts, or approximately 5 per game in a 30 game season, a 7% increase in his shooting would yield an expectation of .35 more made 3s per game, which would up his scoring average by a point per game. That's quite non-trivial, and will likely be just one of multiple avenues he'll improve given what we know about the typical freshman to sophomore leap.

An interesting perspective to perhaps start this focused conversation. I can't wait to see Year 2 Flip.

[AGDukesky]

Flip had such a fantastic freshman season that there isn’t a ton that he has to do better. You rightly mention 3-point shooting where I agree he should improve.

Additionally, his biggest bugaboo was those spinning drives right into the heart of the defense for far too many turnovers. An improved 3-point shot should both give him more confidence to shoot instead of drive as well as keep defenses more honest and not expect drives as much.

The other small complaint I had was not finishing strong around the basket. Added strength should help a great deal but he needs to attack the basket stronger and draw even more fouls.

I trust the coaching staff to work on all of those things and expect a competitor like Flip to make those improvements. I’m not saying Flip is Laettner but he can have that type of impact on the team.

[camion]

Flip had such a fantastic freshman season that there isn’t a ton that he has to do better. You rightly mention 3-point shooting where I agree he should improve.

Additionally, his biggest bugaboo was those spinning drives right into the heart of the defense for far too many turnovers. An improved 3-point shot should both give him more confidence to shoot instead of drive as well as keep defenses more honest and not expect drives as much.

The other small complaint I had was not finishing strong around the basket. Added strength should help a great deal but he needs to attack the basket stronger and draw even more fouls.

I trust the coaching staff to work on all of those things and expect a competitor like Flip to make those improvements. I’m not saying Flip is Laettner but he can have that type of impact on the team.

One of my hopes is that he works with an oldish player to develop some Youngish moves inside and make it harder for defenders to time his shots.

[MChambers]

Flip had such a fantastic freshman season that there isn’t a ton that he has to do better. You rightly mention 3-point shooting where I agree he should improve.

Additionally, his biggest bugaboo was those spinning drives right into the heart of the defense for far too many turnovers. An improved 3-point shot should both give him more confidence to shoot instead of drive as well as keep defenses more honest and not expect drives as much.

The other small complaint I had was not finishing strong around the basket. Added strength should help a great deal but he needs to attack the basket stronger and draw even more fouls.

I trust the coaching staff to work on all of those things and expect a competitor like Flip to make those improvements. I’m not saying Flip is Laettner but he can have that type of impact on the team.

Kyle was not efficient offensively last year. In addition to shooting only 28% from 3, he shot only 58% on close 2s. His assist rate wasn't great, either. Not surprisingly, his efficiency was even lower against top 50 competition: https://www.barttorvik.com/playersta...ipowski&t=Duke

I think Kyle had an impressive freshman season, but he has room for improvement.

[scottdude8]

Kyle was not efficient offensively last year. In addition to shooting only 28% from 3, he shot only 58% on close 2s. His assist rate wasn't great, either. Not surprisingly, his efficiency was even lower against top 50 competition: https://www.barttorvik.com/playersta...ipowski&t=Duke

I think Kyle had an impressive freshman season, but he has room for improvement.

Those are great numbers to keep in mind. I think there's recent history to support an improvement on those "close 2s" as well, namely the muscle Kyle will hopefully put on over the summer (once his hips are fully healed, of course). The bodies of these young men tend to change quite quickly during their college years. Kyle was by no means the string bean many of us were worried about coming into the season (his tough rebounding was a testament to his strength), but a summer's worth of training could make it easier for him to go up strong in the paint.

Long story short, just like that ESPN article identified some reason to be optimistic that his 3 point shooting will improve based on recent history, I think the same could be said for his 2 point shooting as well.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Those are great numbers to keep in mind. I think there's recent history to support an improvement on those "close 2s" as well, namely the muscle Kyle will hopefully put on over the summer (once his hips are fully healed, of course). The bodies of these young men tend to change quite quickly during their college years. Kyle was by no means the string bean many of us were worried about coming into the season (his tough rebounding was a testament to his strength), but a summer's worth of training could make it easier for him to go up strong in the paint.

Long story short, just like that ESPN article identified some reason to be optimistic that his 3 point shooting will improve based on recent history, I think the same could be said for his 2 point shooting as well.

I am cautiously optimistic about Kyle's improvement over the summer, HOWEVER, we should probably temper our expectations a little. He has a few months of recovery from double hip surgery that is going to limit the amount of time he can put into normal offseason workouts. From what I understand, Tre Jones had a similar procedure done between his freshmen and sophomore seasons. My hope is that Kyle improves his shooting percentages from all over the court, reduces his turnovers - both the dribble kind and the charging into opposing players kind - and improves as a playmaker for teammates. Incremental improvements in those areas, combined with what should be a top 10 team, should put Flip in position for All-American team consideration next year.

[Nugget]

There's also this new analytics-driven piece on ESPN, which outlines a lot of evidence that a huge bump in Kyle's 3 point percentage may be in the cards. The TL;DR version: in approximately the past 20 years, players who have shot below 30% from 3 on more than 100 attempts in their freshman or sophomore year upped their 3 point shooting by around 7 percent the following season.

John Gasaway makes an under-the-radar argument for why this is likely the case: players who are shooting that many 3s likely have the "green light" from their coaches, meaning they have the fundamentals of a good shot that isn't necessarily coming out in game action. Add in a little offseason improvement and you're more likely to regress to the mean.

Kyle attempted 124 threes last year, and my bet is that he'll attempt more this year. If we give him an even 150 attempts, or approximately 5 per game in a 30 game season, a 7% increase in his shooting would yield an expectation of .35 more made 3s per game, which would up his scoring average by a point per game. That's quite non-trivial, and will likely be just one of multiple avenues he'll improve given what we know about the typical freshman to sophomore leap.

I think with Kyle being an 80% FT shooter, there's a pretty good basis to hope/expect his 3pt shooting to improve next year, especially if we spend more time with 3 guard lineups that will space the floor better and potentially get Kyle more catch and shoot attempts. It's hard to find an exact "comp" for Kyle's situation within the Duke program, in part because of just how many 3s he shot last year, as even past Duke bigs we think of as having similar games didn't shoot nearly as many 3s (for example, Lance Thomas and Carlos Boozer never attempted a 3, and Shavlik Randolph, Shelden Williams and Josh McRoberts never tried more than 20 in a season).

The closest I could see from prior Duke bigs were:

Ryan Kelly, who went from 32% on 3s as a Soph (69 att.) to 41% (98 att.) as a Jr; and
Kyle Singler (though, obviously, he was always more of a 3-4), who went from 34% (150 att.) as a Fr. to 38% (180 att.) as a Soph.

Beyond that, for 3 point-shooting bigs at Duke, you'd really need to go back to Cherokee Parks, who wen from 18% (only 17 att.) as a Jr. to 37% (85 att.) as a Senior.

And, just as a reminder of how ridiculous of a college player he was, Laettner went from 34% as a Jr. to 56% on 3s (97 att.) as a Sr.

[azzefkram]

Flip was great last year. What am I looking for Flip in year 2? Four things. One, be better around the rim and at the 3-point line. I think around the rim will be better just with experience and gaining strength. The 3-point shooting is a wildcard for me, though the article Scott linked has provided me a smidgen of hopefulness. If Flip's 3-point shooting doesn't improve, I like to see him lower the attempts. Two, (channeling my inner Bilas) he needs to be stronger with the ball. Again, experience and gaining strength should help, but he needs to tighten his handle (the ball often appears far away from his body). Three, block more shots. I have no idea if Flip's lower block rate was more a function of playing next to Dereck or just who he is as a defender. I really hope it's the former. Four, pass the ball. I would guess that Flip is probably going to be agenda items 1 through 4 on most team's defensive scouting reports. Flip being a better facilitator would certainly help Duke and probably help with points one and two.

[scottdude8]

FWIW, looks like Kyle was up and about at K Academy... hopefully this means his hips are healing fast!

[superdave]

What am I looking for Flip in year 2? Four things. One, be better around the rim and at the 3-point line. I think around the rim will be better just with experience and gaining strength.

I said at the end of the season that Flip needs more explosiveness in the paint. He got his shot blocked too often at the rim. He's got the bulk but needs a couple more inches on that vertical leap.

Do we need what the hi surgery was addressing? Do we know rehab and recovery details?

If he's out until, say, July, is he lifting? Pool work?

It sounds like he's not going to get the type of off-season training that would increase explosiveness and vertical leap, so hopefully he gets craftier with up-fakes and some Kevin McHale fotwork.

[budwom]

Of all the things Flip can do to improve his game as a soph, a leading one would be to refrain from putting the ball on the floor as much as he did last year in the post. Those pesky little guards have nothing better to do than swoop in for a steal, like pickpockets in Rome, those guys.

[johnb]

I’m a big fan of regression to the mean, so I guess he’ll be a 6’5” shooting guard out of Boone, NC.

Failing that, I’m guessing the hip surgery will allow him to practice outside shots and do upper body workouts, which wil be helpful.

Summary: he may be the best player in the country, or he might be the 3rd best player on the team. Either way, I think he’ll be a lottery pick. And that he’ll seriously debate whether to come back for a 3rd year.

[robed deity]

I think with Kyle being an 80% FT shooter, there's a pretty good basis to hope/expect his 3pt shooting to improve next year, especially if we spend more time with 3 guard lineups that will space the floor better and potentially get Kyle more catch and shoot attempts. It's hard to find an exact "comp" for Kyle's situation within the Duke program, in part because of just how many 3s he shot last year, as even past Duke bigs we think of as having similar games didn't shoot nearly as many 3s (for example, Lance Thomas and Carlos Boozer never attempted a 3, and Shavlik Randolph, Shelden Williams and Josh McRoberts never tried more than 20 in a season).

The closest I could see from prior Duke bigs were:

Ryan Kelly, who went from 32% on 3s as a Soph (69 att.) to 41% (98 att.) as a Jr; and
Kyle Singler (though, obviously, he was always more of a 3-4), who went from 34% (150 att.) as a Fr. to 38% (180 att.) as a Soph.

Beyond that, for 3 point-shooting bigs at Duke, you'd really need to go back to Cherokee Parks, who wen from 18% (only 17 att.) as a Jr. to 37% (85 att.) as a Senior.

And, just as a reminder of how ridiculous of a college player he was, Laettner went from 34% as a Jr. to 56% on 3s (97 att.) as a Sr.

I remember watching the UNC loss in '92 and wishing Laettner had pulled a 3 in the closing seconds. I felt confident he would have buried it, and at 56 percent, I had good reason to.

[azzefkram]

I said at the end of the season that Flip needs more explosiveness in the paint. He got his shot blocked too often at the rim. He's got the bulk but needs a couple more inches on that vertical leap.

Do we need what the hi surgery was addressing? Do we know rehab and recovery details?

If he's out until, say, July, is he lifting? Pool work?

It sounds like he's not going to get the type of off-season training that would increase explosiveness and vertical leap, so hopefully he gets craftier with up-fakes and some Kevin McHale fotwork.

This is my hope as well. An improved vertical would be great but difficult to attain for the reasons you mentioned. He should be able to improve his upper body strength. That and increased craftiness and experience (knowing what you can get away with) should help at the rim.

[peloton]

FWIW, looks like Kyle was up and about at K Academy... hopefully this means his hips are healing fast!

I'd say from looking at this pic Kyle might have a future in coaching after his playing days are over. Seriously though, I look forward to seeing an improved and more mature sophomore Flip in action. I suspect/hope we'll see him be more effective both outside and inside assuming his recovery goes well...color me excited.

[MChambers]

I'd say from looking at this pic Kyle might have a future in coaching after his playing days are over. Seriously though, I look forward to seeing an improved and more mature sophomore Flip in action. I suspect/hope we'll see him be more effective both outside and inside assuming his recovery goes well...color me excited.

Do they use ACC refs at Coach K camp? Kyle's reaction looks familiar.

[AZLA]

Hopefully, we'll see the many blatant fouls perpetrated against him called for what they were, intentional or technical fouls. I'm talking about the "celebration" elbow to the throat and the before the end-of-game double-mugging both happening in the State of Virginia. Or some of the extra -- "drag 'em into the mud" -- excessive fouls applied by the TN Volunthugeers. That being said, I hope that doesn't turn into an issue (by the press). But Flip was a marked man by other teams. I don't think it will turn into an issue. Only because he is a great guy. Doesn't complain. Doesn't mouth off to other players. He's super smart. A good leader. And yes, he does play aggressively, bangs bodies and is a fierce competitor. So yes, there will be (some) blood in the paint. But I think we'll see Flip being a little more strategic and cagey depending on the matchup. I think he'll balance his contact in the paint with more free flow shooting from outside -- NBA style -- and have a better feel for when he's been marked for assault. And some days he'll just physically battle and destroy whoever stands in his way on the boards because he's a year older, stronger, and wiser. Can't wait!

[elvis14]

I hope Kyle has a good recovery from surgery and put in some work along the way. Needless to say I'm thrilled to have him back. I have to keep reminding myself that we have guys coming back for a change. From a positive numbers perspective, we might not see a big increase in scoring from Kyle...and that's OK, other guys are coming back to get better as well. Even if he doesn't have a huge leap in something like 3 point shooting percentage, I just think he will be a little better in all facets of the game. His handle will improve some (fewer turnovers), this passing, his finishing, etc. Even if no one area makes a big leap if he just gets a little better in lots of areas, the overall effect will make for a more effective player. Also, I see him as a leader on the team, being a guy others rally around.

If Kyle, Mitchell and Proctor all improve we are going to be a tough out again next year (took 300 uncalled fouls last year to take us out).

[scottdude8]

More evidence from Twitter that Flip is already back working out hard: https://twitter.com/dukembb/status/1...cT35mxugtfMCvw

[JasonEvans]

More evidence from Twitter that Flip is already back working out hard: https://twitter.com/dukembb/status/1...cT35mxugtfMCvw

Flip replied to those images with "New hips feelin good" https://twitter.com/kylefilipowski/s...33621588246530