2024 U.S. Presidential election

[Jeffrey]

No disrespect to anyone here, but I would welcome a younger candidate or two.

Please make up your mind. Do you want to see the Trump/Bernie pay per view debates of your dreams?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Please make up your mind. Do you want to see the Trump/Bernie pay per view debates of your dreams?

Entertainment value is different than "good of the country."

[Jeffrey]

Entertainment value is different than "good of the country."

It appears, current politics is also.

[AGDukesky]

Is it a slam dunk that Biden runs with Harris again?

[OldPhiKap]

Is it a slam dunk that Biden runs with Harris again?

I don’t think he could dump her even if he wanted to, politically. (And I have no info to suggest Biden is considering it)

[ClemmonsDevil]

Is it a slam dunk that Biden runs with Harris again?

Yes. There is no way Biden gets rid of Harris.

[rsvman]

All depends on how you are doing the counting. Issues are never black and white. In many cases, it is relatively easy to count one set of lives directly affected, but not so easy to count lives indirectly affected in the opposite direction.

This is simply not even remotely close to true.

[Jeffrey]

This is simply not even remotely close to true.

Truth and Politics seldom travel together!

[sagegrouse]

The Dems should consider spending the vast majority of their dollars on those states --including NC -- and stop tilting at windmills and wasting their money in places like Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

That's what I told Hillary.

[sagegrouse]

Biden's not a sure thing as the nominee. Despite measurable accomplishments, his poll numbers are sinking. Although there is no sign of wavering now, it may look different in six months.

If Biden were to decide not to run, I would expect the list of candidates to include Harris, Gavin Newsome (CA Gov), Buttigieg, and 40+ Dem senators.

[dudog84]

Biden's not a sure thing as the nominee. Despite measurable accomplishments, his poll numbers are sinking. Although there is no sign of wavering now, it may look different in six months.

If Biden were to decide not to run, I would expect the list of candidates to include Harris, Gavin Newsome (CA Gov), Buttigieg, and 40+ Dem senators.

Incumbency is a HUGE (can I reiterate HUGE!) advantage all the way from the Presidency down to your local dog-catcher.

[tommy]

That's what I told Hillary.

Wait what are you saying ? Or joking ?

Hillary lost because (among other reasons) she didn’t mind the store with respect to what had been pretty safe blue states, like Michigan. She was complacent and arrogant in her assumption she did not need to campaign hard in those blue wall states, or to listen to what voters there were saying. And she saw the blue wall disintegrate and that was that.

[YmoBeThere]

The Dems should consider spending the vast majority of their dollars on those states --including NC -- and stop tilting at windmills and wasting their money in places like Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

That's what I told Hillary.

Living here in Texas, I see little to no effort from the national level Dems. So, I would be curious to see their spend at a state level. FWIW, nearly 1 in 6 Dem votes in the last Presidential election came from those 3 states.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Living here in Texas, I see little to no effort from the national level Dems. So, I would be curious to see their spend at a state level. FWIW, nearly 1 in 6 Dem votes in the last Presidential election came from those 3 states.

Yes, and a huge percentage of R votes came from NY and CA yet they will not be spending money there - in absolute terms Trump got the most votes in CA yet lost by roughly 11MM to 6MM, and NY was 5th most with 3.25MM and he lost by 2MM votes there. The electoral college is winner takes all (with minor exceptions). As much as there are ridiculous amounts spent, money is a limited resource, as is a candidate's time. They have to be allocated wisely.

At this point, you are not going to be seeing a lot of public effort. There should be a lot of behind the scenes efforts going on now in terms of hiring staffs, strategizing how to mobilize voters, etc.

[Phredd3]

I mean, I haven't said whether I think saving lives is a good thing or a bad thing.

OK, Doc.

[Phredd3]

Incumbency is a HUGE (can I reiterate HUGE!) advantage all the way from the Presidency down to your local dog-catcher.

It is less huge than it used to be. It is still substantial, but considerably reduced from the truly huge advantage it used to be. According to 538 back in 2018, incumbency has moved from roughly an eight point advantage 25 years ago down to slightly less than a three point advantage in 2018. I don't see much evidence to suggest that the advantage has rebounded since. To be clear, three points is nothing to sneeze at, particularly in this day and age when elections tend to be decided by narrower margins and are pretty inelastic.

[ClemmonsDevil]

It is less huge than it used to be. It is still substantial, but considerably reduced from the truly huge advantage it used to be. According to 538 back in 2018, incumbency has moved from roughly an eight point advantage 25 years ago down to slightly less than a three point advantage in 2018. I don't see much evidence to suggest that the advantage has rebounded since. To be clear, three points is nothing to sneeze at, particularly in this day and age when elections tend to be decided by narrower margins and are pretty inelastic.

Agreed and good post. There is an incumbency advantage, but it is very muted now. For both parties, a primary from your flank is scarier than anything else. DeSantis and his team have determined that the path is to out-flank Trump from the right. I am surprised that DeSantis seems to be more palatable to the Main Street/Chamber of Commerce wing of the Republican party. His approach in Florida has been to use the levers of the state to bludgeon the left. I just fail to see how that is palatable to "small government" Republicans. He is VERY interventionist and has stated he would be at the national level as well.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/politics/desantis-trump-strategy/index.html

My assumption is that the party establishment is in a rush to get past the Trump era and is going to do anything to accomplish that. But I think this actually hurts the party. Also they can see where the Haley, Scott, Hutchinson wing is polling and this makes them afraid to back a horse that simply can't win. I agree with them that there is absolutely no appetite in the Republican Party for a moderate centrist. I think moderate centrist Republicans are very much overrepresented on DBR and that group assumes that there are others like them. And there are. But unfortunately it's just a few dozen (all numbers approximate). When Trump came along I said we would be locked in a trump/ trumpism vortex for the next 20 years and here we are at year 8 and either Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican nominee. I stand by my earlier thoughts.

[mkirsh]

Here are the biggest election issues IMO:

1) Age. Biden will be into his 80s when the next presidential term starts, and Trump isn’t too far behind. Bidens cognitive abilities are already huge talking points on the right, and even a source of lampooning from the left. And for Trump, well I don’t see too many 250-300 lb 80 year olds in the wild. At some point his nutritional lifestyle may catch up to him. Who will literally be left standing in Nov 24?

2) voter turnout / suppression. Can the D grass roots machine overcome R legislatures moves to make voting more difficult? If Trump is the nominee, will the “enthusiasm” bump continue for both parties (ie Trump drawing out voters who typically don’t vote both to vote for and against him)? Or are people tired of it at this point, and if so which side is more fatigued?

3) Florida. It has not been in play the last few elections, but if Trump has to go after Desantis in the primaries, do enough Desantis supporters get turned off and stay home if Trump is the nominee? He won the state last time by 400k votes, so can he capture those back if he trashes the governor who remains popular with FL republicans?

4) shenanigans. The fictitious scenario of votes getting destroyed on Succession is downright terrifying. Please let life not imitate art this cycle.

[Rich]

For clarification's sake, stating a fact such as vaccines have saved more lives than antibiotics, for example, would not be considered an opinion, right? I mean, I haven't said whether I think saving lives is a good thing or a bad thing.

I am a single, 56 year old man who now lives in NYC and (as many of you know) work for Pfizer. A woman my age, who lives in my bldg and with whom I've had a few brief conversations, approached me in the elevator and asked if I'm open to being set up on a date. I told her, "Sure, why not." She asked where I worked and I told her. To which she grimaced and responded, "Oh, ya know, the vaccines made a lot of people sick."

For what it's worth.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I am a single, 56 year old man who now lives in NYC and (as many of you know) work for Pfizer. A woman my age, who lives in my bldg and with whom I've had a few brief conversations, approached me in the elevator and asked if I'm open to being set up on a date. I told her, "Sure, why not." She asked where I worked and I told her. To which she grimaced and responded, "Oh, ya know, the vaccines made a lot of people sick."

For what it's worth.

It's cool that you met a researcher. Wait. She wasn't a researcher?