Since I would fall into it, what is “Dillagaf Gene”?
If a non-Trump was able to get the nomination by taking the position that he will pardon them all, but then in the general he/she changes course and says "no I wouldn't," wouldn't the Trumpists view that as typical Washington politics, the kind they hate and that Trump would never do, and just stay home?
If the GOP candidate is not Trump, that person needs to get just about every single Trump supporter in the swing states to come out and vote for him/her or else there is no chance.
What issues I think will heavily matter:
Crime
Inflation
Foreign policy
Immigration
LGBTQ issues
Abortion
Education
I am not sure either of America’s last two presidents will get re-elected in 2024. If Trump does get re-elected, will he be just the 2nd president ever to serve two non consecutive terms? I believe Grover Cleveland was the other.
"We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust
I agree Democrats always think that - but in 2020 and 2022 they were right. Only the oldest Gen Zers were eligible to vote in 2016. Since then, as a generation, compared to their older counterparts at the same age, they have turned out, proportionally, in historically higher numbers. They did in 2018, they did again in 2020, and although there was a midterm drop off from their numbers in 2022, they are still above previous generations.
In general, Republicans' response to higher rates of voting among younger people has been to try to prevent it from happening. Not including college IDs on a long list of ID types that are acceptable for voting? Closing down polling locations near college campuses? All these college educated young people aren't stupid, they see what is going on and a lot of them don't like it. I wish the older politicians among us would stop that because once this generation does take power - and it is inevitable that they will - what is to stop them from returning the favor? It would not be that hard to put up new barriers that stop older people from voting. Make every nursing home resident have a non-family member witness residents filling out and signing all absentee ballots. Make it illegal for assisted living facilities to rent buses to take residents to polling places. Close down polling places near retirement communities. You know - all the voter suppression usuals except the goal is prevent old people from voting instead of young people and/or people of color. That's always been my main problem with voter suppression efforts. If we aren't going to make the effort to let everyone vote, then we shouldn't be surprised if the mechanisms that limit access to voting are someday turned on us.
That may or may not be true. WI was the tipping point state last time*, but the runner-ups were AZ, GA, _and_ PA. I could definitely see a scenario similar to 2020 where GA and AZ (narrowly) go to Biden, but WI goes narrowly to Trump/GOP and it comes down to the last few votes in PA. Also, I'm not sure I agree about which states could be in play. Yes, there were only 8 states within 5 pts in 2020 (in order: GA, AZ, WI, PA, NC, NV, MI, FL). But it's too early to say for sure what will be true in 1.5 years - how many people in summer 2019 thought GA could go blue in the 2020 election, or in 2015 thought MI could go red the next year?
With a possible matchup for Governor between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson on the ballot, plus the abortion ban, the Dems view North Carolina as really being in play in 2024. If they can take the state, then the math really gets dicey for the GOP for President. If the Dems were to also hold onto Pennsylvania, then it wouldn't matter what happens in AZ, WI, and GA, assuming there are no losses of others like MI or NV that seem "safer" although definitely not safe. The Dems should consider spending the vast majority of their dollars on those states --including NC -- and stop tilting at windmills and wasting their money in places like Florida, Texas, and Ohio.
I largely agree with everything you are saying - both sides are going to have to really focus their time and money and figure out where they truly have a chance to win.
What makes things more interesting is that there are Senate seats on the ballot in a lot of key states, so money will be flowing in for those state-wide elections (plus the NC governor election you mentioned). Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Sinema in Arizona, Casey in PA, Stabenow in MI, Brown in Ohio, Rosen in NV. Plus Cruz in TX and Scott in FL, but of which I agree are likely out of reach for Dems on the presidential side and most likely for Senate but who knows. I would think Kaine is safe in VA but after the last Governor election there who knows - I think that was just the perfect storm for Youngkin.
Almost all of these seats are currently held by Democrats.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
Correct, saying they save lives would be a fact. Saying they should or should not be mandatory gets into a public policy debate.
Additionally, I have seen some people openly express support for individual candidates. I would ask that we largely avoid that. It isn't a serious problem, but -- as I said at the start of the thread -- your goal should be for folks in this thread to not know who you are supporting.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Looks like there is a new entrant on the horizon.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is close to launching a campaign for president.
That makes 10 official candidates with several more waiting in the wings. The bigger the field gets the better it is for Trump. It's going to be different from 2016 with candidates being more aggressive toward Trump but the end is probably the same. If Chris Sununu throws his hat in the ring it might lead to some early drama with the New Hampshire primary but I think it will be short lived.
I think you know substantially more about politics and you’re probably correct!
Nevertheless, I’m still having a very hard time with the basic concept. Our courts have labeled most J6s “terrorist” and they are receiving very long (completely life changing) sentences. At the same time, any R candidate must take a "All those patriots are saints" stance to have any chance of winning their primaries?
It does not compute!