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  1. #61
    Since I would fall into it, what is “Dillagaf Gene”?

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Don't think that will play very well with the middle of the road voters who decide elections. I can see the Dem nominee's ads already with the footage of the violence, cut to the GOP nominee pledging to pardon the perpetrators . . .
    The current game is getting the nomination. The pandering to the middle and undecideds would come after. We are going to hear a lot of stuff that everyone but Trump will soften on if they win the nomination.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    The current game is getting the nomination. The pandering to the middle and undecideds would come after. We are going to hear a lot of stuff that everyone but Trump will soften on if they win the nomination.
    If a non-Trump was able to get the nomination by taking the position that he will pardon them all, but then in the general he/she changes course and says "no I wouldn't," wouldn't the Trumpists view that as typical Washington politics, the kind they hate and that Trump would never do, and just stay home?

    If the GOP candidate is not Trump, that person needs to get just about every single Trump supporter in the swing states to come out and vote for him/her or else there is no chance.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    What issues I think will heavily matter:

    Crime

    Inflation

    Foreign policy

    Immigration

    LGBTQ issues

    Abortion

    Education

    I am not sure either of America’s last two presidents will get re-elected in 2024. If Trump does get re-elected, will he be just the 2nd president ever to serve two non consecutive terms? I believe Grover Cleveland was the other.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I don't see a scenario in which Trump is not the GOP nominee. His base is so loyal to him personally and there is nothing that can change their minds about him. Nothing. Plus he's creaming DeSantis in the polls already and DeSantis is not known to be a terrific campaigner or a guy with a likeable personality, so it's hard to see him making the kind of headway against Trump he'd need to make.

    That being said, the Democrats always seem to think the youthful vote is going to come out and be a difference maker for them. It rarely if ever is. Instead of just assuming that young people are going to be motivated to vote, and to vote Blue, either because of the abortion issue or something else, the Democrats would be wise to work their collective butts off to make it happen. Actually strategize and target those young voters, especially in the few keys states that will decide this election. And they shouldn't wait. They should've started already, and if they haven't, start now. If they don't, they'll end up disappointed that once again their assumptions about the vitality of the youth vote did not come to pass. Stop being so complacent about it already.
    yep, I see no way the GOP field can overcome Trump's very sizeable and ardent base.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Quick warning...

    I'm not deleting or issuing infractions yet, but there have been some posts that seem to be more focused on issues than I think we should allow. Your personal opinion on Abortion, vaccines, election laws, and guns should not be a part of the conversation here (or anywhere on the DBR). Please confine your comments to analysis and keep your opinions to yourself.
    For clarification's sake, stating a fact such as vaccines have saved more lives than antibiotics, for example, would not be considered an opinion, right? I mean, I haven't said whether I think saving lives is a good thing or a bad thing.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    If a non-Trump was able to get the nomination by taking the position that he will pardon them all, but then in the general he/she changes course and says "no I wouldn't," wouldn't the Trumpists view that as typical Washington politics, the kind they hate and that Trump would never do, and just stay home?

    If the GOP candidate is not Trump, that person needs to get just about every single Trump supporter in the swing states to come out and vote for him/her or else there is no chance.


    Their only other option would be to stay home and the possibility of Biden winning again. There are GOP voters that will stay home if Trump wins the nomination so it may be a wash.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    I don't see a scenario in which Trump is not the GOP nominee. His base is so loyal to him personally and there is nothing that can change their minds about him. Nothing. Plus he's creaming DeSantis in the polls already and DeSantis is not known to be a terrific campaigner or a guy with a likeable personality, so it's hard to see him making the kind of headway against Trump he'd need to make.

    That being said, the Democrats always seem to think the youthful vote is going to come out and be a difference maker for them. It rarely if ever is. Instead of just assuming that young people are going to be motivated to vote, and to vote Blue, either because of the abortion issue or something else, the Democrats would be wise to work their collective butts off to make it happen. Actually strategize and target those young voters, especially in the few keys states that will decide this election. And they shouldn't wait. They should've started already, and if they haven't, start now. If they don't, they'll end up disappointed that once again their assumptions about the vitality of the youth vote did not come to pass. Stop being so complacent about it already.
    I agree Democrats always think that - but in 2020 and 2022 they were right. Only the oldest Gen Zers were eligible to vote in 2016. Since then, as a generation, compared to their older counterparts at the same age, they have turned out, proportionally, in historically higher numbers. They did in 2018, they did again in 2020, and although there was a midterm drop off from their numbers in 2022, they are still above previous generations.

    In general, Republicans' response to higher rates of voting among younger people has been to try to prevent it from happening. Not including college IDs on a long list of ID types that are acceptable for voting? Closing down polling locations near college campuses? All these college educated young people aren't stupid, they see what is going on and a lot of them don't like it. I wish the older politicians among us would stop that because once this generation does take power - and it is inevitable that they will - what is to stop them from returning the favor? It would not be that hard to put up new barriers that stop older people from voting. Make every nursing home resident have a non-family member witness residents filling out and signing all absentee ballots. Make it illegal for assisted living facilities to rent buses to take residents to polling places. Close down polling places near retirement communities. You know - all the voter suppression usuals except the goal is prevent old people from voting instead of young people and/or people of color. That's always been my main problem with voter suppression efforts. If we aren't going to make the effort to let everyone vote, then we shouldn't be surprised if the mechanisms that limit access to voting are someday turned on us.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    For clarification's sake, stating a fact such as vaccines have saved more lives than antibiotics, for example, would not be considered an opinion, right? I mean, I haven't said whether I think saving lives is a good thing or a bad thing.
    All depends on how you are doing the counting. Issues are never black and white. In many cases, it is relatively easy to count one set of lives directly affected, but not so easy to count lives indirectly affected in the opposite direction.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Athens, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Many political observers say all that matters is Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona. If the Democrats win any of those, it is a done deal. The presumption is that if Pennsylvania or Michigan are really in play, the Democrats are doomed anyway. Similarly, if North Carolina is in play, the GOP candidate is probably already toast. I think Nevada and perhaps New Hampshire could also be very close in a tight election, but neither of them have enough EVs to swing the election one way or the other the way GA, WI, and AZ do.
    Quote Originally Posted by ClemmonsDevil View Post
    This is where I am too. If NC is in play Republicans are clearly not winning the general. If PA/MI are in play Dems clearly aren't winning the general. So all that matters at the presidential level are GA/WI/AZ. And Dems just need 1 while Republicans need all 3. BUT, the margins there are unbelievably close.
    That may or may not be true. WI was the tipping point state last time*, but the runner-ups were AZ, GA, _and_ PA. I could definitely see a scenario similar to 2020 where GA and AZ (narrowly) go to Biden, but WI goes narrowly to Trump/GOP and it comes down to the last few votes in PA. Also, I'm not sure I agree about which states could be in play. Yes, there were only 8 states within 5 pts in 2020 (in order: GA, AZ, WI, PA, NC, NV, MI, FL). But it's too early to say for sure what will be true in 1.5 years - how many people in summer 2019 thought GA could go blue in the 2020 election, or in 2015 thought MI could go red the next year?

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    All depends on how you are doing the counting. Issues are never black and white. In many cases, it is relatively easy to count one set of lives directly affected, but not so easy to count lives indirectly affected in the opposite direction.
    It is, however, possible when you are an expert in the field like rsvman is.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by crimsondevil View Post
    That may or may not be true. WI was the tipping point state last time*, but the runner-ups were AZ, GA, _and_ PA. I could definitely see a scenario similar to 2020 where GA and AZ (narrowly) go to Biden, but WI goes narrowly to Trump/GOP and it comes down to the last few votes in PA. Also, I'm not sure I agree about which states could be in play. Yes, there were only 8 states within 5 pts in 2020 (in order: GA, AZ, WI, PA, NC, NV, MI, FL). But it's too early to say for sure what will be true in 1.5 years - how many people in summer 2019 thought GA could go blue in the 2020 election, or in 2015 thought MI could go red the next year?
    With a possible matchup for Governor between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson on the ballot, plus the abortion ban, the Dems view North Carolina as really being in play in 2024. If they can take the state, then the math really gets dicey for the GOP for President. If the Dems were to also hold onto Pennsylvania, then it wouldn't matter what happens in AZ, WI, and GA, assuming there are no losses of others like MI or NV that seem "safer" although definitely not safe. The Dems should consider spending the vast majority of their dollars on those states --including NC -- and stop tilting at windmills and wasting their money in places like Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    With a possible matchup for Governor between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson on the ballot, plus the abortion ban, the Dems view North Carolina as really being in play in 2024. If they can take the state, then the math really gets dicey for the GOP for President. If the Dems were to also hold onto Pennsylvania, then it wouldn't matter what happens in AZ, WI, and GA, assuming there are no losses of others like MI or NV that seem "safer" although definitely not safe. The Dems should consider spending the vast majority of their dollars on those states --including NC -- and stop tilting at windmills and wasting their money in places like Florida, Texas, and Ohio.
    I largely agree with everything you are saying - both sides are going to have to really focus their time and money and figure out where they truly have a chance to win.

    What makes things more interesting is that there are Senate seats on the ballot in a lot of key states, so money will be flowing in for those state-wide elections (plus the NC governor election you mentioned). Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Sinema in Arizona, Casey in PA, Stabenow in MI, Brown in Ohio, Rosen in NV. Plus Cruz in TX and Scott in FL, but of which I agree are likely out of reach for Dems on the presidential side and most likely for Senate but who knows. I would think Kaine is safe in VA but after the last Governor election there who knows - I think that was just the perfect storm for Youngkin.

    Almost all of these seats are currently held by Democrats.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    I’m not sure any independent/moderate voter will forget a stance of that magnitude. IMO, it’s a huge problem for all R candidates.
    They won't forget it. But no candidate with a hope for being the nominee will have a chance to give the voters something else to think about unless they take it in the primaries first. (And at some point, every primary candidate will have to make that decision.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    For clarification's sake, stating a fact such as vaccines have saved more lives than antibiotics, for example, would not be considered an opinion, right? I mean, I haven't said whether I think saving lives is a good thing or a bad thing.
    Correct, saying they save lives would be a fact. Saying they should or should not be mandatory gets into a public policy debate.

    Additionally, I have seen some people openly express support for individual candidates. I would ask that we largely avoid that. It isn't a serious problem, but -- as I said at the start of the thread -- your goal should be for folks in this thread to not know who you are supporting.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by acdevil View Post
    Since I would fall into it, what is “Dillagaf Gene”?
    Her definition is you do not care your going to do your thing. Opinions be damned .
    DO
    I
    LOOK
    LIKE
    I
    Give
    A
    Rats patutty.subbed the f word .

  17. #77
    Looks like there is a new entrant on the horizon.

    North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is close to launching a campaign for president.

    That makes 10 official candidates with several more waiting in the wings. The bigger the field gets the better it is for Trump. It's going to be different from 2016 with candidates being more aggressive toward Trump but the end is probably the same. If Chris Sununu throws his hat in the ring it might lead to some early drama with the New Hampshire primary but I think it will be short lived.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    They won't forget it. But no candidate with a hope for being the nominee will have a chance to give the voters something else to think about unless they take it in the primaries first. (And at some point, every primary candidate will have to make that decision.)
    I think you know substantially more about politics and you’re probably correct!

    Nevertheless, I’m still having a very hard time with the basic concept. Our courts have labeled most J6s “terrorist” and they are receiving very long (completely life changing) sentences. At the same time, any R candidate must take a "All those patriots are saints" stance to have any chance of winning their primaries?

    It does not compute!

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I doubt anyone challenges Biden from the ranks of "normal" Democrats... unless he starts to show signs of cognitive or physical deterioration.
    I mean…..this is currently true for both Biden and Trump. They are 80 and 76 years old. Both Bill Clinton and W are 76 years old.

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    I mean…..this is currently true for both Biden and Trump. They are 80 and 76 years old. Both Bill Clinton and W are 76 years old.
    No disrespect to anyone here, but I would welcome a younger candidate or two.

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