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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I agree with Crazy, I think the view of youths from vast parts of the country is decidedly more conservative than many of us would like to think.
    It depends on how you define conservative.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post

    Plus as someone noted above, every day in this country thousands of old people (who skew conservative) die.
    Not too mention the effects of the Covid pandemic, which disproportionately removed older conservatives from the voting rolls...

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Certainly the vast, vast majority of young girls don't want to be forced to give birth, and only a slightly smaller majority of boys don't want to be saddled with the consequences of their actions (it takes 2 after all).
    After a diligent (read: "10 minute") search for polling, I could not find numbers to back up the "slightly" part. Here's the best current breakdown I could find (a Gallup poll) that broke down the issue in reasonable age bands, and also broke it down by gender. You can see that, overall, men identify as "pro-choice" but barely more than they identify as "pro-life". For women, it is almost two-to-one. The younger age group is more skewed than the older demographic, so presumably younger men are more prone to identify as "pro-choice" more often than their aging peers, but it isn't all all clear that they've come close to catching women on the issue. I'd love to see a demographic breakdown across both gender and age, if you can find one.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    I don't see a scenario in which Trump is not the GOP nominee. His base is so loyal to him personally and there is nothing that can change their minds about him. Nothing. Plus he's creaming DeSantis in the polls already and DeSantis is not known to be a terrific campaigner or a guy with a likeable personality, so it's hard to see him making the kind of headway against Trump he'd need to make.

    That being said, the Democrats always seem to think the youthful vote is going to come out and be a difference maker for them. It rarely if ever is. Instead of just assuming that young people are going to be motivated to vote, and to vote Blue, either because of the abortion issue or something else, the Democrats would be wise to work their collective butts off to make it happen. Actually strategize and target those young voters, especially in the few keys states that will decide this election. And they shouldn't wait. They should've started already, and if they haven't, start now. If they don't, they'll end up disappointed that once again their assumptions about the vitality of the youth vote did not come to pass. Stop being so complacent about it already.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    After a diligent (read: "10 minute") search for polling, I could not find numbers to back up the "slightly" part. Here's the best current breakdown I could find (a Gallup poll) that broke down the issue in reasonable age bands, and also broke it down by gender. You can see that, overall, men identify as "pro-choice" but barely more than they identify as "pro-life". For women, it is almost two-to-one. The younger age group is more skewed than the older demographic, so presumably younger men are more prone to identify as "pro-choice" more often than their aging peers, but it isn't all all clear that they've come close to catching women on the issue. I'd love to see a demographic breakdown across both gender and age, if you can find one.
    I found this Pew article that really slices and dices abortion opinions based on a number of factors - gender, age, race, party, at different stages of pregnancy. It has a ton of information in it that is pretty interesting. Note that it was published in May, 2022, right before Dobbs. Dobbs made people think more closely about where they stand so the outcome might have been slightly different.

    The follow-up has really highlighted the nuance to the issue, as demonstrated in this article. There are not a ton of people in either the "allow abortion 100% of the time no matter what" or the "do not permit abortion at all under any circumstances from day 1" camps. Though the former group does include a unique combination of people, some of whom don't really like abortion but feel that it is not the government's place to legislate. The headlines on the different state rules don't always capture this well, but it seems like DeSantis leaned pretty far towards the "under no circumstances" camp - from a practical standpoint, six weeks might as well be zero weeks, though he does include some exceptions that I believe other states do not have.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/religion...ould-be-legal/

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Rougemont Nebulae
    Debating the demographic shifts and hot button issues that may play into the vote are interesting, informative, but keep in mind the historical trend: Republicans have lost the popular vote in 6 of last 7 Presidential elections (check my math) while increasing their footprint at the state level (for the most part). As of 2021 R's held veto-proof legislative majorities in 16 states to the Dems 8. None of those veto-proof majorities are in the three critical toss-up states.

    As a separate point--not because of the swell in Republican-held state offices, but potentially correlated I think it's fair to say given the galvanizing force that moves the Republican base at the moment--the likelihood for procedural shenanigans at the State-level seems very high and could easily be determinative. More succinctly, nothing legally has happened to Trump, yet, to think that he will be deterred from attempting the same gambit in 2024. Maybe this point is OOB for the purposes of this thread, and if so I apologize, but it certainly seems like the 800-lb gorilla in the room.
    Last edited by CameronBlue; 05-26-2023 at 01:28 PM.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Rude. 🤣

    Not wrong. But rude. {Yells at cloud}
    I was born in 66 and my wife is 2 years older. She tells me that she is one of the last of the boomers and Iím whatever came next. Nevertheless Iím a boomer in spirit.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I don't see how Jack Smith makes a difference in the primary. It might cost him some support, but just as likely gains him some, and with his current lead it will not be enough to make a difference. We will not have a trial and conviction in the next 18 months, an indictment (if there is one) won't matter.
    Youíre probably right. Iím assuming the Justice Dept wonít stop the process during the primaries and/or general election. An indictment wonít hurt him with the hard core Trumpers but it could make things pretty volatile during the primaries. But a general election featuring Trump under indictment would be bonkers.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    ...


    They have Senator Robert Kennedy Jr. (husband of Cheryl Hines) ....
    LOL. I'm not sure what, if anything, this says about America and Americans, but as it turns out, he is also the son of Robert Kennedy! Who knew?






    Oh, and by the way, he's a complete nutjob. I actually respected his father. But if Jr had his way, thousands more children would be dead now from measles, whooping cough, etc. I cannot and will not support any candidate that thinks vaccines are poisons (and he was preaching this a LONG time before there was such a thing as the Covid vaccine), when the truth is that vaccines have saved more lives than any other medical intervention.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    They have Senator Robert Kennedy Jr. (husband of Cheryl Hines) and Marianne Williamson (author). I'm not sure either makes the ballot.
    Robert Kennedy Jr. was never a senator. He has never held any political office, though his name has been bandied about for various jobs in the past (about 20 years ago), including the U.S. Senate and NY Governor. At this point, with his staunch anti-vax positions, he is seen as a fringe candidate much like Marianne Williamson. I think most political analysts say the current polling numbers both of them enjoy speaks more to Democratic concerns about Biden's age than it does to enthusiasm for either Kennedy or Williamson.

    I doubt anyone challenges Biden from the ranks of "normal" Democrats... unless he starts to show signs of cognitive or physical deterioration.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    ...the truth is that vaccines have saved more lives than any other medical intervention.
    Even bloodletting? Theodoric of York would beg to differ.
    Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote. - George Jean Nathan

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quick warning...

    I'm not deleting or issuing infractions yet, but there have been some posts that seem to be more focused on issues than I think we should allow. Your personal opinion on Abortion, vaccines, election laws, and guns should not be a part of the conversation here (or anywhere on the DBR). Please confine your comments to analysis and keep your opinions to yourself.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    As prefaced by DeSantis, (who said he will do so "aggressively"), every GOP candidate will have to say that they will be dishing out Jan 6th and Trump pardons once elected if they want any shot at the nomination.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/aske...ry?id=99609762
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    As prefaced by DeSantis, (who said he will do so "aggressively"), every GOP candidate will have to say that they will be dishing out Jan 6th and Trump pardons once elected if they want any shot at the nomination.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/aske...ry?id=99609762
    Don't think that will play very well with the middle of the road voters who decide elections. I can see the Dem nominee's ads already with the footage of the violence, cut to the GOP nominee pledging to pardon the perpetrators . . .

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Ö..never getting the Trump/Bernie pay per view debates of my dreams.
    You truly would have paid to watch multiple debates?

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Don't think that will play very well with the middle of the road voters who decide elections. I can see the Dem nominee's ads already with the footage of the violence, cut to the GOP nominee pledging to pardon the perpetrators . . .
    They can change their stance once they get past the primaries, but they ain't getting past the primaries unless they take on a "All those patriots are saints" stance.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Your personal opinion on Abortion, vaccines, election laws, and guns should not be a part of the conversation here (or anywhere on the DBR). Please confine your comments to analysis and keep your opinions to yourself.
    Seems like there have been so many revisions that I truly donít know either partyís current vaccine(s) position. What is it currently?

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quite interested in Tim Scott. I've known him since 1988 .we dated two sisters in goose creek s.c .I've barely seen him in the last decade . He was a real good guy back then .genuine. he also came from limited means that just isn't a story he says .I remember him digging change out for
    A burger a few times .he did his best effort to get me into church tricked me a few times He's a religious guy .me not so much. Very intrigued to have watch him ascend to where he is now and to see his future.

    He may be the politician with the least baggage that could affect his campaign .
    Not sure I'd vote for him although I'd love to.i dont feel he has the support at this time
    I'll have to see where the cards fall.
    Haley will not get my support .she tried to submarine our work to georgia that will never be forgotten.
    I couldn't see myself voting for trump (just not a viable option to me)unless it was a extreme circumstance.
    My version of the nuclear option .
    I'd prefer a moderate to come along and bring both sides together somewhat.
    In my opinion there has to be some give and take on both sides .we can only move forward together otherwise we will be in a perpetual game of tug o war.
    Last election gabbard was my preferred candidate she didn't make the cut.
    I know whom I'm willing to vote for whom I won't vote for and whom I may have to vote
    For if I'm out of options.non party specific.
    Quite a lot of options at this point.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    They can change their stance once they get past the primaries, but they ain't getting past the primaries unless they take on a "All those patriots are saints" stance.
    Iím not sure any independent/moderate voter will forget a stance of that magnitude. IMO, itís a huge problem for all R candidates.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Summerville ,S.C.
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I was born in 66 and my wife is 2 years older. She tells me that she is one of the last of the boomers and Iím whatever came next. Nevertheless Iím a boomer in spirit.
    Early GenX there's three stages of gen x.
    Explained to me by my daughter .
    Earlier gen x were renegades with a touch of boomer that phased into
    Dilligaf genx of stage 2 which according
    To her phased into the next gen during the mid 80s .
    Not my definition but her explanation.
    Which sorta aligns with the I'm a boomer in spirit aspect.

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